With Rudisha (mostlikely) out, Kitum out, and Amos no where near last years form, curious what are we looking at in Moscow in the next few weeks? Will Aman take the top spot, can the Americans medal or even go 1-2? will Some unknown lurking pull up a win?
ATK wrote:With Rudisha (mostlikely) out, Kitum out, and Amos no where near last years form, curious what are we looking at in Moscow in the next few weeks? Will Aman take the top spot, can the Americans medal or even go 1-2? will Some unknown lurking pull up a win?
Amos is coming along, sub-1:45 in Lausanne and has great speed. Aman is the obvious choice right now, but has raced a lot. This guy Ayanley Souleiman (DJI) recently ran 1:43.63 in addition to his two DL 1500 wins, and might double. The 800 is 10, 11, 13, the 1500 14, 16, 18. He would be gambling that running the 8 would hurt his chances in the 15, but who knows?
The absence of Rudisha and Kitum could certainly open the door for Symmonds, Solomon and Brandon Johnson, but also Borzakovskiy, Bosse, Lewandowski, Kszczot, Olivier and the Kenyans who made the team.
It's a much more wide-open event now. Personally, I'd love to see Borzakovskiy on the podium in his home country. Молодец! Cheers, Alan Shank Woodland, CA, USA
It is an interesting event to consider, though now for very different reasons than I expected a few months ago. Hate to see Rudisha injured. The world lists aren't destiny, and are of course imperfect predictors of WC medals (or even finalists), but they are oddly interesting in and of themselves: Eight athletes sub-1:44; 3 are USA, including the WL. Worth noting that the 3 USA in this group (counting Johnson's 1:43.97 for a moment, rather than his subsequent faster 1:43.84, from Madrid yesterday) all have performances in this group from a final in a 3-round championship. On the other hand, Aman has 3 @ 1:43, winning 3 big European races. As for others, I have enjoyed seeing Bosse's career rise this season, and would enjoy seeing him in the mix for a medal. I wonder what Ayanleh Souleiman (DJI) will do, as he is near the top of the list in both 800 & 1500 this year. I don't know how well the WC schedule would facilitate a double. Hard for me to pick a USA winner (as much as I might want to see it!), but -- on the other hand -- Solomon, Symmonds, & Johnson seem to be having good enough seasons and running very well in multi-round championships that all three could make the final. No prediction there -- anything can happen -- but I think the ability to manage the rounds, get to the final, and have the strength to run reasonably well in the final means a lot, especially in relation to one-off races, however competitive or high-profile they may be.
Aman lost once this season, against Rudisha. All the others lost more races than they won, even Solomon, who other than Des Moines didn't do much. 6th in Eugene, 8th in Rome, doesn't exactly spell favourite.
Master Po wrote:I wonder what Ayanleh Souleiman (DJI) will do, as he is near the top of the list in both 800 & 1500 this year. I don't know how well the WC schedule would facilitate a double.
See my post just above yours. It is certainly doable, but my guess is that Souleiman would prefer the 1500 first, and might not want to risk running the 800.
Without a pacemaker or Rudisha, Solomon is likely to lead at a fast pace, making himself a target, just like Montano (and Johnny Gray in his day), while Borzakovskiy and Symmonds (if they make the final) bring up the rear. I fear, however, that Borza is going to have a tough time making the final. Cheers, Alan Shank Woodland, CA, USA
This is something about which I presume reasonable people can disagree. I see how Aman could be considered the favorite, and I might in the end consider him as such. On the other hand, I wouldn't be inclined to describe Solomon's season so far as "not much."
It is interesting to compare the outdoor seasons of Aman & Solomon -- two very different paths of preparation for WC.
Aman: 10 May Doha 1:44.21 (2nd, to Rudisha) 1 June Eugene 1:44.42 (1st) 6 June Rome 1:43.61 (1st) 9 June Rabat 1:44.37 (1st) 27 June Ostrava 1:43.78 (1st) 30 June Birmingham 1:45.18 (1st) 4 July Lausanne 1:43.33 (1st) Though I haven't gone back and looked, I'm guessing that each of those was paced through 400-500m. but however it was done, this performance record looks like it has "favorite" written all over it. Six of the 22 performances this year that are sub-1:44.5 run by this guy.
On the other hand, turning toward Solomon, one thing Aman has not had to do is peak for a 3-round championship that, whilst not being truly "world class" did have 3 @ 1:43 in the final. It wasn't a walk in the park, and it did require Solomon to succeed, otherwise we wouldn't be discussing him at all. That's the other path to the WC -- having to peak at a championship meet, and then gear it up once more for the WC.
Solomon: 20 April Mt. SAC 1:46.03 (1st) 1 June Eugene 1:45.67 (6th) 6 June Rome 1:45.14 (8th) 9 June Rabat 1:44.91 (2nd) 20 June USATF 1:46.39 (H/1st) 21 June USATF 1:45.07 (SF/2nd) 23 June USATF 1:43.27 (1st) 29 June Edmonton 1:44.91 (2nd) 02 July Vancouver 1:13.28 600m (1st) Solomon's season definitely looks more "up & down" than Aman's and generally of lower quality...except for that championship WL, which looks pretty good. And, that 600 looks pretty good too.
For me, it's hard to say which I would favor, at this point. And of course, it's entirely likely, given the vagaries of this event, that 3 others will be on the medal stand.
It is sad to see the event go on without the best but so is life. Without Rudisha the event might go as fast as high 142 if someone takes it out at 49-50 range but could be as slow as 145 if no one is willing to take it out fast in the first lap. this might be Symmonds chance of a lifetime if he stays in touch and doesnt immediately go to the rear.
With his PR in the Olympics last year, Solomon proved that he knows how to peak when it counts. I can easily see him on the podium this year. As for winning it? Who knows. It's a very competitive field and it should be an unusually interesting event.
^ Good nickname for Solomon, a runner whom I truly enjoy watching.
Further thought prompted by tm71's post, above. Thinking back over the modern championship history of this event (which I begin with '64 OG, as Snell's winning time of 1:45.1 is something we would not be surprised to see now), in the 26 global championships starting from that time (i.e., '64-'12 OG & all the WC), almost all have been won in the 1:43-1:45 range (11 @ 1:43, 6 @ 1:44, 6 @ 1:45), so I suppose we should expect something there. If this race goes faster than 1:43 -- which it could -- it would be historic, as only Rudisha's 2012 WR and and Rodal's 1996 1:42.58 have ever done that in a WC or OG. And those two races weren't just fast at the front, of course, they were deep too.
And there's always the other possibility -- of slower than 1:45 -- which Yego's 1:47.09 showed us in 2007. But that was an odd outlier in the modern history of this event -- we hadn't seen a time in that range since Tom Courtney's OG victory in 1956 (which means I didn't see it at all as it was before my time, but I know some of you did!). And even though I must have seen Yego's victory in 2007, I can't remember anything about it, despite reviewing the results just now. The entire field 1-8 was at the finish only separated by .49 sec. That must be some "record" for how close 1-8 were in a final (but I don't feel like trying to retrieve that data). Plenty of fast times in those Heats & SFs, but for whatever reason, they didn't do that in the final. Every race has its own logic.
In any case, this year's event right now seems interestingly wide open, as has been noted above.