Which teenage runner will prevail?


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Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby portsea57 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 3:58 am

By the next Olympics, which one of the present USA/European teenage running sensations - Cain, Judd, Wilson and Hinriksdóttir - will have had the most success ( medals, times, important wins) and why?
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby norunner » Wed Jul 03, 2013 4:13 am

portsea57 wrote:By the next Olympics, which one of the present USA/European teenage running sensations - Cain, Judd, Wilson and Hinriksdóttir - will have had the most success ( medals, times, important wins) and why?
It's three years away, you seriously expect anyone to make any kind predictions that make sense?
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby az2004 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 4:39 am

actually I like ajee Wilson as she may cloeseer to full tanturity than the others

lets see how they progress over the years suspect all 4 will be around and in the mix
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby portsea57 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 4:49 am

Yes, is the answer to norunner's question.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby JumboElliott » Wed Jul 03, 2013 5:04 am

Alan Webb set the AR in the mile and was the world leader in the 1500 in 2007. In 2008 he didn't make the Olympics.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby doug5321 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 6:29 am

daesha rogers just ran 52.11 will start 9th grade in the fall. ran 2:07 for 800 in 7th grade,why? she has more speed than any of them by far, she may run some shocking times in the junior AAU and junior olympic meets. she may even surpass cains high school 800 and 1500 records in 9th or 10th grade.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby jeremyp » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:10 am

Predicting the future of wunder kids is a mug's game. 90% of them never develop into wunder adults. Enjoy them while you can. Having said that I think there is one person who will raise cain. :D
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby portsea57 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 11:25 am

Well, one could make a prediction based
1. Their progress so far.
2. Knowledge of the people who are guiding them.
3. What one can gather about them from interviews etc.
4. And, maybe, even, a basic gut feeling.
Lots to go on there! I would say.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby doug5321 » Wed Jul 03, 2013 7:21 pm

portsea57 wrote:Well, one could make a prediction based

2. Knowledge of the people who are guiding them.



the one with the least skilled coach guiding them may have the most potential, the ones with the best coaches will have the best training so if one has the better coach and their times are similar they may not have as much room for improvement because their training is already the best it can be.

anyway their coaches
mary cain-alberto salazar
jessica judd-steve cram
ajee wilson, anita h. and d. rogers- i dont know.

cain and judd have coaches who were great runners, the others could be as good or better coaches no one really knows. anyways even if their coach is not the best, the best coaching will be available to them soon, every NCAA coach would want to work with any of them as would the top professional coaches.

i have a feeling they will race each other many times, world juniors in eugene could have 3 of them race each other (wilson wont be a junior next year and rogers may be too young.)
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby CookyMonzta » Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:07 pm

az2004 wrote:actually I like ajee Wilson as she may cloeseer to full tanturity than the others

lets see how they progress over the years suspect all 4 will be around and in the mix

If she makes it to the final, it'll be interesting to see if she can make the top 10 on the junior list. A tall order, given that number 10 is Lin Na at 1:58.16.

Here's a note: If Mary Cain wants to make the top 10 WJ list in the 1,500, she need only to go 4:02.90 (Kalkidan Gezahegne).

One other thing: I assume Kadecia Baird is preparing for the World Championships herself. Assuming she qualifies (for Guyana), if she makes the semis, it'll be another opportunity for her to go 51.xx or faster, despite the fact that she has yet to break 53.00 (she ran 53.28 at this past weekend's USATF Club Champs).
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby jjimbojames » Wed Jul 03, 2013 11:45 pm

doug5321 wrote:
portsea57 wrote:Well, one could make a prediction based

2. Knowledge of the people who are guiding them.



the one with the least skilled coach guiding them may have the most potential, the ones with the best coaches will have the best training so if one has the better coach and their times are similar they may not have as much room for improvement because their training is already the best it can be.

anyway their coaches
mary cain-alberto salazar
jessica judd-steve cram
ajee wilson, anita h. and d. rogers- i dont know.

cain and judd have coaches who were great runners, the others could be as good or better coaches no one really knows. anyways even if their coach is not the best, the best coaching will be available to them soon, every NCAA coach would want to work with any of them as would the top professional coaches.

i have a feeling they will race each other many times, world juniors in eugene could have 3 of them race each other (wilson wont be a junior next year and rogers may be too young.)

Judd isn't coached by Cram - he coaches Laura Weightman. Judd is coached by Rob Denmark
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby portsea57 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 5:03 am

Have there been any studies into why brilliant junior athletes fail to keep improving and become brilliant seniors?
Some may think this is a daft question, but I would be interested to know the answer(s).
Interestingly, when Jessica Judd ran her sub-2 minute clocking she just failed to beat the British junior record for 800m, 1 min 59.75sec, which was set by Charlotte Moore, then a 17 year old, back in 2002.
From what I can gather, Charlotte never ran faster.
Does anybody out there know the story behind that because British athletics can't really afford to have such talent go unfulfilled!
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby icerunner » Thu Jul 04, 2013 6:09 am

My bet(without knowing it) is possible injury or injury did keep her of the track.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby az2004 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:07 am

ajee Wilson is coached by Derek Thompson who is a philly area coach

ajee goes to temple
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby az2004 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:15 am

here's a video of daesha rogers


http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/248544 ... ida-Relays


looks like she has talent
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby az2004 » Thu Jul 04, 2013 10:19 am

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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby Tuariki » Fri Jul 05, 2013 9:59 pm

And unlike another phenom this one knows how to win.

Let's hope she one day also learns how to run tactically - going out in 62/63 for a 1600m at age 13 is not exactly conducive to improving her best time of 4:53 (I think). I read that she ran 52.11 for the 400m so with that sort of speed she is probably capable of a significant improvement of her 2:07 800m time as well as her 4:53.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby portsea57 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 4:52 am

I think I'm right in saying that Seb Coe, Britain's greatest middle-distance runner( and still British record holder at 800m and 1000m ) never held a British junior record.
Of course, Seb's coach/dad had a long term plan that was designed to enable Seb to win gold in Moscow.
Unrushed - injury-free - progress seems to be the lesson there.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby TN1965 » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:12 am

portsea57 wrote:I think I'm right in saying that Seb Coe, Britain's greatest middle-distance runner( and still British record holder at 800m and 1000m ) never held a British junior record.
Of course, Seb's coach/dad had a long term plan that was designed to enable Seb to win gold in Moscow.
Unrushed - injury-free - progress seems to be the lesson there.


Exactly the same approach Salazar took about Rupp, and is (presumably) taking about Cain...
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby aaronk » Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:02 am

Tuariki wrote:And unlike another phenom this one knows how to win.

Let's hope she one day also learns how to run tactically - going out in 62/63 for a 1600m at age 13 is not exactly conducive to improving her best time of 4:53 (I think). I read that she ran 52.11 for the 400m so with that sort of speed she is probably capable of a significant improvement of her 2:07 800m time as well as her 4:53.


You don't say, but I believe you're talking about Daesha Rogers here, correct??
Although in your 1st sentence, it sounds like you're referring to Mary Cain.

Whatever the case, being able to win, or using the right tactics to be able to win, must be countered with the fields they're racing against.

Judd and Hinriksdottir won their races, but against whom??
Cain finished "just" 5th in the Pre 800, but look at who beat her:
The best in the world, Niyonsaba....
an American, Martinez, who'd run 1:59.14....
the top American, Montano, over the past 3 years, and a steady 1:57 performer....
and Jepkosgei, one of the best Kenyans!

And that's just about the 800 at Pre.
Cain won the USATF indoor mile....against a relatively weak field.
But she also came in 2nd------very close 2nd!------against a strong American field at the outdoor meet!

Absolutely NOT an embarrassment to place 5th, at age 17, to those 4!!
Could Judd or Hinriksdottir have done better??

I think both of them, Judd and the Icelander, have GREAT futures.
Especially Judd.
(Don't know anything about the other, except for her 2:00.49!)

As for Ajee Wilson, she's been progressing very nicely, going from 2:00.91 to 1:59.55 in one year.
And I don't think she's finished this year--I'm pretty sure she'll go faster in Moscow (or before or after in a DL).



But based on WHOM they've raced against, I'd put Cain at # 1, with Wilson right behind her, and with Judd a clear and strong 3rd, with Hinriksdottir being a very exciting, but still very unknown factor!!
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby icerunner » Sat Jul 06, 2013 10:16 am

Just to give you a brief background on Anita Hinriksdottir then her progress by year is below:
Year Best 800m time Age
2008 2:29.98 12
2009 2:31.27 13
2010 2:18.11 14
2011 2:08,64 15
2012 2:03.15 16
2013 2:00.49 17
In her longtime plan for this year there was never in the picture to enter a major senior competition so she has declined going to HM in Moscow this year.
It is going to be very intresting to see her match against Jessica Judd in the Eropean junior championship in two weeks from now. Anita has led every 800m race(outdoors) this year from beginning to end an led by a large margin so it should be interesting to see what happens when she finally gets some competion. As for the WYC this coming week then I hope Mary Cain shows up for 800m against Anita but I am not very optimistic of that.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby Tuariki » Sat Jul 06, 2013 10:24 am

aaronk wrote:
Tuariki wrote:And unlike another phenom this one knows how to win.

Let's hope she one day also learns how to run tactically - going out in 62/63 for a 1600m at age 13 is not exactly conducive to improving her best time of 4:53 (I think). I read that she ran 52.11 for the 400m so with that sort of speed she is probably capable of a significant improvement of her 2:07 800m time as well as her 4:53.


You don't say, but I believe you're talking about Daesha Rogers here, correct??
Although in your 1st sentence, it sounds like you're referring to Mary Cain.

Whatever the case, being able to win, or using the right tactics to be able to win, must be countered with the fields they're racing against.

Judd and Hinriksdottir won their races, but against whom??
Cain finished "just" 5th in the Pre 800, but look at who beat her:
The best in the world, Niyonsaba....
an American, Martinez, who'd run 1:59.14....
the top American, Montano, over the past 3 years, and a steady 1:57 performer....
and Jepkosgei, one of the best Kenyans!

And that's just about the 800 at Pre.
Cain won the USATF indoor mile....against a relatively weak field.
But she also came in 2nd------very close 2nd!------against a strong American field at the outdoor meet!

Absolutely NOT an embarrassment to place 5th, at age 17, to those 4!!
Could Judd or Hinriksdottir have done better??

I think both of them, Judd and the Icelander, have GREAT futures.
Especially Judd.
(Don't know anything about the other, except for her 2:00.49!)

As for Ajee Wilson, she's been progressing very nicely, going from 2:00.91 to 1:59.55 in one year.
And I don't think she's finished this year--I'm pretty sure she'll go faster in Moscow (or before or after in a DL).



But based on WHOM they've raced against, I'd put Cain at # 1, with Wilson right behind her, and with Judd a clear and strong 3rd, with Hinriksdottir being a very exciting, but still very unknown factor!!

Sorry Aaronk. couldn't help myself - I just had to see if you would bite.

Other than that I agree with everything you said.

Daesha Rogers is a phenom. Lets hope she keeps developing and isn't destroyed
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby Rothosen » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:21 pm

Cain #1 ???

In my sporting world when you are 0-2 vs a competitor you don't get moved ahead of them until you beat them on the track. Judd remains #1 until Cain beats her.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby tandfman » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:28 pm

CookyMonzta wrote:One other thing: I assume Kadecia Baird is preparing for the World Championships herself. Assuming she qualifies (for Guyana), if she makes the semis, it'll be another opportunity for her to go 51.xx or faster, despite the fact that she has yet to break 53.00 (she ran 53.28 at this past weekend's USATF Club Champs).

She ran 51.32 today, winning the 400 at the CAC Championships.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby LadyT » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:40 pm

tandfman wrote:
CookyMonzta wrote:One other thing: I assume Kadecia Baird is preparing for the World Championships herself. Assuming she qualifies (for Guyana), if she makes the semis, it'll be another opportunity for her to go 51.xx or faster, despite the fact that she has yet to break 53.00 (she ran 53.28 at this past weekend's USATF Club Champs).

She ran 51.32 today, winning the 400 at the CAC Championships.


Results?
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby tandfman » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:41 pm

See the T&FN front page headline section.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby tandfman » Sat Jul 06, 2013 5:56 pm

tandfman wrote:
CookyMonzta wrote:One other thing: I assume Kadecia Baird is preparing for the World Championships herself. Assuming she qualifies (for Guyana), if she makes the semis, it'll be another opportunity for her to go 51.xx or faster, despite the fact that she has yet to break 53.00 (she ran 53.28 at this past weekend's USATF Club Champs).

She ran 51.32 today, winning the 400 at the CAC Championships.

I should have added that this performance was aided by significant altitude.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby aaronk » Sat Jul 06, 2013 6:43 pm

Rothosen wrote:Cain #1 ???

In my sporting world when you are 0-2 vs a competitor you don't get moved ahead of them until you beat them on the track. Judd remains #1 until Cain beats her.


I know Cain lost to Judd (and BOTH lost to Kipyegon!!) at the WJC's.
But I don't recall them ever being in any other race together.
What was it?

As for my saying Cain is #1 (among the teens we're speaking of), I'm referring to 2 things:

1. Their overall records---Cain's run fast from 800 to 5K, Judd from 800 to 3K. Cain's won a Championship.....even if against a weak field....and finished a close second against the best her country had to offer.....even if Uceny, for example, wasn't at her best.

2. Again, the competition they faced. Judd won that 1:59 race, but against whom? As I said, Cain may have finished 5th in that 800, but she lost to WORLD class women!!

All that said, I believe Judd is VERY close to Cain in potential!! I see her running VERY fast in the future....at distances as wide-ranging as Cain has done.
Also, adding to the above.....Cain has broken numerous HSR's and AJR's. Has Judd broken any British HSR's or British Junior Records?
(I read that the 1:59 she ran was second fastest British junior time!)
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby Rothosen » Sat Jul 06, 2013 7:52 pm

Judd beat Cain in the heat and then again in the finals
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby gh » Sat Jul 06, 2013 8:41 pm

tandfman wrote:
CookyMonzta wrote:One other thing: I assume Kadecia Baird is preparing for the World Championships herself. Assuming she qualifies (for Guyana), if she makes the semis, it'll be another opportunity for her to go 51.xx or faster, despite the fact that she has yet to break 53.00 (she ran 53.28 at this past weekend's USATF Club Champs).

She ran 51.32 today, winning the 400 at the CAC Championships.


If she cuts another 3-4 seconds off, she might challenge Cain for HS AOY :mrgreen:
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby CookyMonzta » Sat Jul 06, 2013 11:27 pm

gh wrote:
tandfman wrote:
CookyMonzta wrote:One other thing: I assume Kadecia Baird is preparing for the World Championships herself. Assuming she qualifies (for Guyana), if she makes the semis, it'll be another opportunity for her to go 51.xx or faster, despite the fact that she has yet to break 53.00 (she ran 53.28 at this past weekend's USATF Club Champs).

She ran 51.32 today, winning the 400 at the CAC Championships.


If she cuts another 3-4 seconds off, she might challenge Cain for HS AOY :mrgreen:

Is the WJR (49.42) good enough? Maybe she makes it to the Moscow final and gets a good lane; and while Big O. is running everyone down on the homestretch (possibly to chase the U.K. NR, also 49.42, long overdue for her to break), Kadecia runs her down and wins the damn thing, yes? :twisted:
[Yeah, I know; fat chance it may be, though my implication, without the imagination, is that Ohuruogu will win, and it will take a NR to do it.]

I hope she's running the 200 at the CAC. Me still thinks she has to drop a 22.xx (not entirely impossible, given her 22.7 indoor relay split), to go with a 49.xx and a Moscow medal to make things dicey for Mary. A medal for Mary in Moscow, and that door is slammed shut.

The other negative for Kadecia: No CAC MR (50.63, Ana Quirot) to start that ball rolling even faster, and even if she runs 22.xx, I don't think she can get Grace Jackson's MR of 22.36.

When do classes start at Nebraska? She has until then to at least crack Sanya's 400 HSR, to challenge Kendell Williams, who I think is now sitting at #2 on the girls' list, unless she herself is being challenged by Wesley Frazier. 8-)
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby mump boy » Sun Jul 07, 2013 1:10 am

aaronk wrote:
Rothosen wrote:2. Again, the competition they faced. Judd won that 1:59 race, but against whom? As I said, Cain may have finished 5th in that 800, but she lost to WORLD class women!!


Judd WON her races against WORLD class women !!

At the European Team Champs she beat an international field including a number of sub 2 runners

In Birmingham she beat Marilyn Okoro, Fantu Magisto, Yvonne Hak, Yelena Kotulskaya

I'm making no judgement about who is better or who will go on to achieve anything in the future, but getting into the habit of winning races, especially agains seemingly superior competition is a very important part.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby aaronk » Sun Jul 07, 2013 3:14 am

mump boy wrote:
aaronk wrote:
Rothosen wrote:2. Again, the competition they faced. Judd won that 1:59 race, but against whom? As I said, Cain may have finished 5th in that 800, but she lost to WORLD class women!!


Judd WON her races against WORLD class women !!

At the European Team Champs she beat an international field including a number of sub 2 runners

In Birmingham she beat Marilyn Okoro, Fantu Magisto, Yvonne Hak, Yelena Kotulskaya

I'm making no judgement about who is better or who will go on to achieve anything in the future, but getting into the habit of winning races, especially agains seemingly superior competition is a very important part.


Okay, thanks, mump boy!
Wasn't aware of the names of her competitors.
Okoro and Magisto are good.
So now I guess I'm MORE impressed with Judd!!

Would love to see all 4 (Judd, Hinriksdottir, Wilson, and Cain) come together for a race.....maybe at 1000 meters........no pacer!!
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby LadyT » Sun Jul 07, 2013 4:35 am

Cooky, Kadecia signed with Nebraska???
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby CookyMonzta » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:43 am

LadyT wrote:Cooky, Kadecia signed with Nebraska???

At the NBNo, the media on the Web quoted her college choice as the U. of Nebraska.

Here's confirmation:
http://www.armorytrack.com/News/Post/tan-emocionada
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby CookyMonzta » Sun Jul 07, 2013 12:43 pm

So much for a HS AOY challenge from Kadecia. :( She ran 23.79 in the CAC heats and barely missed qualifying for the final, won by Kineke Alexander (St. Vincent) in 23.00.
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Re: Which teenage runner will prevail?

Postby tandfman » Sun Jul 07, 2013 2:05 pm

CookyMonzta wrote:I hope she's running the 200 at the CAC. Me still thinks she has to drop a 22.xx (not entirely impossible, given her 22.7 indoor relay split), to go with a 49.xx and a Moscow medal to make things dicey for Mary. A medal for Mary in Moscow, and that door is slammed shut.

The other negative for Kadecia: No CAC MR (50.63, Ana Quirot) to start that ball rolling even faster, and even if she runs 22.xx, I don't think she can get Grace Jackson's MR of 22.36.

She ran 23.79 in her heat and did not make it to the final. :(
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