Mary Cain's "perfect storm"


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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:05 am

booond wrote:
gh wrote:pretty hard to beat Mary Slaney, methinks, from 1:56 to 31:35 (a WR at the time).


Yes, she's very close and she's the exception. It isn't automatic that one can run 1:58 to 31:30 or even, as a different test, be top-10 across those events in a career's lifetime. The person or people who do that are exceptional athletes, it isn't routine by any means.


Also got to remember that in '73 (the year she ranked no. 4 in the world in the 800) she was 14/15 (birthday in early August)!

And to extend the range a bit more, that same year she ran 53.84 in the 400, which put her about 60th on the yearly world list.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Marlow » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:14 am

Having seen several female running prodigies up close and from the beginning, there is nothing remarkable about them AT ALL, certainly not the bodies as athletic entities. What they ALL had in common and Cain has in aces is a god-given, innate ability to transport oxygen to her muscles. And that system's ability to be 'trained'. Not her muscles, it's her oxygen-exchange system. One of our girls ran a 5:30 Mile in PE class in 7th grade after ZERO distance training. She wasn't particularly 'fast' (couldn't break 70 during the following track season), but she just didn't get tired.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Samurai_Runner » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:15 am

aaronk wrote:Okay, let me explain my rationale....

Making generalizations based on these type of extrapolations really is a stretch, especially if it is only applied to one person and she hasn't even raced at a 10k. I don't believe in projecting people's times or capabilities based on some theoretical formula (which has no scientific basis), which is the same for everyone. Abilities & training for an 800 do not translate to what someone could run for a 10k.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:33 am

cain seemed very comfortable running in a crowd, wonder if the cntact you can see in some euro races will fluster her

I suspect not, not my expectations on her in Moscow is get to the next round


woryy about a medal in 2014 junior meet
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Marlow » Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:18 am

az2004 wrote:I suspect not, not my expectations on her in Moscow is get to the next round

Given her kick (which is even more important in the qual rounds than the final, given the cautious paces) and Salazar's savvy, I see her making the final (!!!) and then somewhere in the 4-8 range of the final, which would be, of course, FANTASTIC! A 4:02 perhaps?!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby DaveyGuy » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:13 pm

I don't think that Mary Cain will brake 4 min this year or maybe next year, just to fast. Of course I didn't think she would do a 4:04 this year!
There has been only 15 races by 5 American women under 4

1)Mary Decker Slaney (7 times) PR 3:57.12 7/26/83
2)Suzy Favor Hamilton (4 times) PR 3:57.40 7/28/00
3)Anna Pierce (1 time) PR 3:59.38 8/28/0
4)Christin Wurth Thomas (2 times) PR 3:59.59 7/16/10
5)Jenny Simpson (1 time) PR 3:59.90 6/7/09
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:26 pm

to get umder 4 cain needs to be in a race with wabbits, set up for her to do so



doubt Moscow will present that situation


races with tactics will give her a chance to learn how to race, which should benefit her longterm


rs let her mature a couple years before looking at 4
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:45 pm

However, there are a couple of athletes who seem to be a cut above in terms of overall mark but not nearly so dominant in the sprinting department. They might not want to wait around very long. Of course, there are the unknown anomaly's like last year's Turkish duo, reduced eventually to one.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Thu Jun 27, 2013 12:52 pm

az2004 wrote:to get umder 4 cain needs to be in a race with wabbits, set up for her to do so...


For many women currently running does that statement not stand as true? I'm guessing all but a very, very few.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Dave » Thu Jun 27, 2013 1:11 pm

In the US championships, it is customary to see a pleasant jog followed by a 400m sprint. At the WC or OG level, they seem to want to run the entire race.

Would that pace serve as a rabbit for someone like Cain?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:02 pm

Dave wrote:In the US championships, it is customary to see a pleasant jog followed by a 400m sprint. At the WC or OG level, they seem to want to run the entire race.

Would that pace serve as a rabbit for someone like Cain?


This is far away from the "perfect storm" idea of this thread, but let me deal with your comment for a bit.

First of all, it's not just Cain I think can go sub-4:00 this summer, but Moser and Simpson too!!
Simpson HAS a sub-4, but just barely, at 3:59.90.
But I could envision a scenario where ALL THREE of them go sub-4.....and either win....or lose!!
Here's 3 or 4 ways the WC final can go.
(I'm going to assume that ALL the Americans make the 1500 final!! Their kicks are so good, and their strategies are so smart, I just can't see any of them missing the final!)

1. A VERY fast final! Something in the range of 3:55 to 3:58 for the winner. With no professional rabbits, it might lead to the Ethiopians or even the Americans running as a team, and taking it from the gun. Pace would be 63-65, then 2:07-2:09, then 3:10-3:12 at 1200, with something like 43-45 final 300. The USA three CAN kick, but can they kick off THAT kind of pace??

2. A very SLOW final! No, not as slow as our USATF final!! But maybe London redux?? If that happens, that would play perfectly into the American's hands......and I'm talking all three, not just Cain!! Moser and Cain ran in the 57's in Des Moines. Name ANY female 1500 runner ANYWHERE who has gone faster.....off of any pace?? If they have, it probably wasn't by much!!
And Simpson? Remember Daegu??

3. Somewhere around 4:03-4:05. This kind of race would be somewhat similar to # 2, but faster. The last laps would definitely be in the 56-59 range. If you can't run under 60, your goose is cooked!! This too would play well for the Americans. The only caveat I would give for a kicker's race would be: You GOTTA be within INCHES of the leader when she goes!! If you're just ONE second back, you'd have to run 55 to her 56, or 56 to her 57, etc....and that's just to TIE!!! So no back of the pack running in a "tactical" race!! Not in the WC final.....against a woman or women who HAVE run 3:56 and kicked a 58 off that pace!!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Rothosen » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:21 pm

DaveyGuy wrote:I don't think that Mary Cain will brake 4 min this year or maybe next year, just to fast.


So you don't think Mary Cain can match the yearly improvements of Faith Kipyegon?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Rothosen » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:11 pm

The comparisons with Kipyegon are uncanny. Being twenty months younger we see:

4:17.10 vs 4:17.84
4:09.48 vs 4:11.01
4:03.82 vs. 4:04.62
3:56.98 vs. ??????

So if Mary Cain doesn't run a 3:57.7 - 3:58.5 next year she start losing her age advantage.
No reason at all barring injury she does not break 4minutes next year. Plus one big advantage. Kipyegon's best 800 was this years 2:02.8 so Mary is faster.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Tuariki » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:52 pm

Would appear that Cain will have no problem getting well under 4:00 in the right race.

With her speed she seems to be ideally suited to having a realistic chance for the Moscow podium, no matter what the pace.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Samurai_Runner » Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:40 pm

Before handing over a medal to her, people need to consider that there are 3 rounds (heats, semifinals, final) and she has never raced against this level of competition. She finished 6th at the WJ last year. Granted, she's much improved, but she is unproven in international senior competition.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby bobguild76 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:07 pm

Samurai_Runner wrote:Before handing over a medal to her, people need to consider that there are 3 rounds (heats, semifinals, final) and she has never raced against this level of competition. She finished 6th at the WJ last year. Granted, she's much improved, but she is unproven in international senior competition.

Well said. Often times, the OG & WC semis are every bit as draining (and faster), physically and emotionally, as most finals. Will she be able to expend the energy necessary to make it through the semi, regroup, and be on her "A" game 2 days later for the final? Here's looking forward to the answer on Aug 15!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Rothosen » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:27 pm

Samurai_Runner wrote:Before handing over a medal to her, people need to consider that there are 3 rounds (heats, semifinals, final) and she has never raced against this level of competition. She finished 6th at the WJ last year. Granted, she's much improved, but she is unproven in international senior competition.


Absolutely! Cain would have to run under 4:00 which I don't think will come this year at the end of two rounds. I actually don't think it will come this year at all but next. Kipyegon has had the practice of two World Championship victories, albeit Youth in 2011, and Junior in 2012. Something I believe is important while this board does not. Can Faith make it a three-peat? Possible. I will be surprised if Mary places as high as sixth. Don't be stunned if this plays out like 2007 with a sub four victory as well as perhaps needed for bronze.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 2:55 am

if cain can get a free run the last lap, she has shown the ability to finish fast, but I suspect all the finalists will have a good finish too

I see this more as a learning experience for the future her days are ahead of here

it's all good whatever she does against this level of competition
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Jun 28, 2013 10:10 am

Cain closes quite well, but Moser was much further back and then passed Cain by a fair amount. In my mind I do not put Moser at the top of the list of the worlds best closers (yet).
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby BCBaroo » Fri Jun 28, 2013 12:05 pm

To me MC is in a great position. Even if she only runs a 4:40 finishing DFL in her heat - I still don't think I'd be disappointed in her. I'd be disappointed. But not in her. She's enriched this year for me as a track fan so much, I'm already paid in full.

Go Mary, Go.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Fri Jun 28, 2013 8:35 pm

gh wrote:
az2004 wrote:to get umder 4 cain needs to be in a race with wabbits, set up for her to do so...


For many women currently running does that statement not stand as true? I'm guessing all but a very, very few.


I remain eager to hear some other input on this stance.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby DrJay » Sat Jun 29, 2013 3:13 am

az2004 wrote:to get umder 4 cain needs to be in a race with wabbits, set up for her to do so


Didn't you mean a "wace wif wabbits"?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:36 am

yes, something set up with a sub 4 pace to pull her to a fast time under 4
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Samurai_Runner » Sat Jun 29, 2013 6:48 am

gh wrote:
gh wrote:
az2004 wrote:to get umder 4 cain needs to be in a race with wabbits, set up for her to do so...


For many women currently running does that statement not stand as true? I'm guessing all but a very, very few.


I remain eager to hear some other input on this stance.

She would probably be better served by running in some international tactical races to prepare her for the WCs. She doesn't need to set more records. However, many of the Euro races are paced, so she'll have her opportunities for another PR in due time. If she follows the same approach as she has since Salazar started coaching her, time is not the primary objective when she races.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby bobguild76 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 8:32 am

gh wrote:
gh wrote:
az2004 wrote:to get umder 4 cain needs to be in a race with wabbits, set up for her to do so...


For many women currently running does that statement not stand as true? I'm guessing all but a very, very few.


I remain eager to hear some other input on this stance.

Good question, gh. If I hear you right, the question is whether one of the present runners can go sub-4 w/o pacers, particularly in a Championship race, ala Kazankina, Ivan, or Boulmerka. That took a great measure of confidence and commitment, with their conviction that a sit and kick strategy might not yield a gold medal.

To begin, for someone to go sub-4 today in an unpaced race, I think they would need the confidence of having been there in a paced race. (Does that make sense?) Aregawi & G. Dibaba have ducked under the last two years, so one thinks they could do it in an unpaced, Championship environment. Ditto Kipyegon. And the Russians seem to have one or two go sub-4 every other Russian Champs or so.

I see two scenarios for this to happen;
1. A low key race, with only one or two of the top notch women, where a fast time isn't compromised by the fear of being outkicked by one of the other top notch women,

2. A WC where one or more simply decide to go pedal to the metal from the git-go. In that environment, with the depth of today's women, that could well pull 5 or more under 4 minutes.

Thoughts?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Master Po » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:14 am

^agree w gh's posts, and w bobguild, too. Not very many women, ever, who succeed in going sub-4:00 without wabbits. Probably always some who are "capable," in the general sense, but such performances are at the limits of their capabilities, and thus would require everything to go just right. Even in the small data set of 2013, pretty much all of the top 15 performances are from Doha, Eugene, and Roma. Paced, deep, and incentivized for fast running. Simpson's 4:03 at Drake is the fastest outside that group. So, I concur that to say that Cain would need these circumstances to get nearer to, or under, 4:00 is to say that she's like all the other current "near-to-4:00" elites. As for the future? Nostradamus still isn't returning my calls, so I don't know.

Regarding an earlier inquiry/tangent on this thread that came up about capabilites to run sub-2:00, sub-4:00, sub-15:00, and sub-31:30, we have discussed how near Decker Slaney came to those marks. I might be wrong about this, but as far as I can tell at the moment, this group is really elite, because I can't find anyone in it. Closest I have found is Sonia O'Sullivan, at:
2:00.69 (1994)
3:58.85 (1995)
14:41.02 (2000)
30:47.59 (2002)
Setting aside the 800 for a moment, there probably are a few in the sub-4:00, sub-15:00, sub-31:00 club, but I would guess that O'Sullivan's marks would also be distinctive in that group, not to mention the very fast 800 PB.

It's probably good to be reminded occasionally how great a runner O'Sullivan was. One of my all-time favorites. :D
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby booond » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:38 am

Master Po wrote:Regarding an earlier inquiry/tangent on this thread that came up about capabilites to run sub-2:00, sub-4:00, sub-15:00, and sub-31:30, we have discussed how near Decker Slaney came to those marks. I might be wrong about this, but as far as I can tell at the moment, this group is really elite, because I can't find anyone in it. Closest I have found is Sonia O'Sullivan, at:
2:00.69 (1994)
3:58.85 (1995)
14:41.02 (2000)
30:47.59 (2002)
Setting aside the 800 for a moment, there probably are a few in the sub-4:00, sub-15:00, sub-31:00 club, but I would guess that O'Sullivan's marks would also be distinctive in that group, not to mention the very fast 800 PB.

It's probably good to be reminded occasionally how great a runner O'Sullivan was. One of my all-time favorites. :D


She was the closest I found, too. Part of it is that the times keep moving and a better test might be world top-10 in all the distances. However, one does not springboard from the 800 elite to the 10k elite as a natural progression.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:55 am

I think the next time for a tactical race for cain is moscw itself

I suspect Salazar will recycle her training in Switzerland and any racing she may do is 800 or another 3k 5k strength race

her year has been a success whatever she does in Moscow, getting to the finals is a cherry on top
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby bobguild76 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 9:57 am

Master Po wrote:It's probably good to be reminded occasionally how great a runner O'Sullivan was. One of my all-time favorites. :D

Same here Master Po!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby pickle47 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 10:06 am

Paula Radcliffe ran 2:05 and 4:05. And somewhat better times at the longer stuff.

Regarding Mary Cain, those international races can be a little bit physical. Can you say Sally Barsosio? Some U.S. racers have been quite taken aback after a few whacks to the chest, gut.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Sat Jun 29, 2013 10:14 am

pickle47 wrote:Paula Radcliffe ran 2:05 and 4:05. And somewhat better times at the longer stuff.

Regarding Mary Cain, those international races can be a little bit physical. Can you say Sally Barsosio? Some U.S. racers have been quite taken aback after a few whacks to the chest, gut.


You think Mary can't handle the infighting?
Tell that to the row of bodies laying on the track after Cain's elbows get done with them!!! :P :shock:
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby jeremyp » Sat Jun 29, 2013 10:16 am

I'm a great Cain fan but I give her small odds to make the final. Now that she's racing Africans and Turks and Arabs and Europeans she's going to have her hands full with fast paces and fast finishes. If she does make the final and it is slow, she has a "Manzano's chance" to finish high, if she's well positioned. She's had a long year and I expect she's at her peak. I do hope I'm wrong.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:07 am

as lomg as no Russians are recipients of a cain elbow, she will be fine, but dq if he hits any Russian

do you really trust any Russian little mary hits some Russian girl
suspect mary adopts the same approach as des moines, drop to the back mover wide and make one big move, if it works fine, if not wait till next year
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby bobguild76 » Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:13 am

Go Mary! But I'm also interested in how the defending Champ does. Go Jenny!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Master Po » Sat Jun 29, 2013 11:38 am

agree w jeremyp's comment, above. Cain is having a great season. It seems like she's handling all this very well, and it seems that Salazar and anyone else involved with helping her is managing her very well. But come August this will have been -- by a lot -- her longest season, and I think Moscow will be her first 3-round 1500m competition. To get there at all is an accomplishment. To make the final would be a great accomplishment on top of this great season for her.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Sat Jun 29, 2013 4:18 pm

Cain's season has been long in time, but not in volume of races.
She ran sporadically in CC.
She ran a total of 5 races indoors (three 1 miles, one 2 mile, a 3K).
She' ran, prior to USATF, a total of 5 races outdoors (two 1500's, two 800's, and a 5K).
At USATF, she ran two 1500's, for a total of 12 track races, indoors and out.

Any collegian (or high schooler!!) ran probably twice as much, maybe three times as much!
Take Jordan Hasay, for example, since she now trains with Cain and Co.
How many collegiate races.....other than 10K's.....did Hasay run this year, in and out?
Then she's run, so far, four 10K's.....and she'll be running at least one more, two if she makes the "A"!

Cain is being trained, I'm sure, to handle the 3-race affair in Moscow.

But, like bobguild76 said, Cain isn't the only American woman running the 1500 in Moscow.
We could have FOUR, if Cory McGee makes a B. (I think she will!!)
And as I said in an earlier post, there is no one, African, European, or whatever, who can OUTkick Cain right now.
They can kick AS FAST AS her, but not faster!!
Same goes for Simpson and Moser!
Simpson is in the best shape of her life, IMO.
So is Moser.
Ditto Cain.
Simpson won Daegu with her kick.
Moser and Cain ran 57's at USATF!!

We might not just get a medal in the woman's 1500....we might SWEEP!!!! :D
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby DrJay » Sun Jun 30, 2013 8:30 pm

DoubleRBar wrote:Check out Tim Layden's article in the latest Sports Illustrated on page 46. It is titled "Here Comes Mary Cain".


"She avoids track-website message boards, which can be vicious and are demographically disconnected from her world. 'All those old men [critiquing her],' she says." Hilarious!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby lonewolf » Sun Jun 30, 2013 8:40 pm

Smart girl.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Sun Jun 30, 2013 8:49 pm

DrJay wrote:
DoubleRBar wrote:Check out Tim Layden's article in the latest Sports Illustrated on page 46. It is titled "Here Comes Mary Cain".


"She avoids track-website message boards, which can be vicious and are demographically disconnected from her world. 'All those old men [critiquing her],' she says." Hilarious!


To a 17 year old.....anyone over 18 is an "old man"!! :wink:
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Rothosen » Sun Jun 30, 2013 9:23 pm

But she reads all her facebook posts, and responds to quite a few...go figure
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