Mary Cain's "perfect storm"


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Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:32 pm

interesting e-mail I got:

<<Has any US athlete [maybe discounting sub-HS track] male or female had a perfect season like Mary Cain?

She has set a record (albeit HS) at every distance she has tried this year.

She is a US national champion (indoors) in her first US Championship and has made the highest (Olympic or WC) team available to her in her first attempt.

Obviously no high schooler has done that and I would doubt many collegians or pros.>>
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby kuha » Wed Jun 26, 2013 1:48 pm

The real comparable, I guess, is Ryun's 1964 season (as a HS junior), and Cain probably comes out on top.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby mcgato » Wed Jun 26, 2013 3:06 pm

As ridiculous as Ryun's 1964 season was, he was only arguably better than Lindgren that year. And I could make a pretty good argument that Lindgren's year was better. For the record, they are still my numbers 1 and 2 all time US HS distance runners, so that was a perfect storm.

Looking at this year, Elise Cranny has run 4:15.07 for 1500 and Alexa Efraimson has run 4:36.48+ converted mile. I think that both of those place them top 5 all time US HS. They are 11 or 12 seconds back of Cain, or about 3 seconds per lap. Pretty much nobody is talking about two of the top all time US HS runners, because Cain is so far ahead of them that it is ridiculous.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby JumboElliott » Wed Jun 26, 2013 3:26 pm

gh wrote:interesting e-mail I got:

<<Has any US athlete [maybe discounting sub-HS track] male or female had a perfect season like Mary Cain?

She has set a record (albeit HS) at every distance she has tried this year.

She is a US national champion (indoors) in her first US Championship and has made the highest (Olympic or WC) team available to her in her first attempt.

Obviously no high schooler has done that and I would doubt many collegians or pros.>>

Jenny Barringer in 2009?

Obviously it wasn't her first time making a national team, but it was pretty close.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Wed Jun 26, 2013 3:29 pm

Once Mary ran that 4:11.01 last year, I KNEW she could run the times she has this year.......at least up through Drake, but even beyond.

I've always believed a mid/long distance runner can move up or down in distance with relative ease.
Thus, when she ran that 4:11, I estimated she'd run 9:00 for 3K, 15:30 for 5K, 32:30 for 10K, and a sub-4:30 mile.
That's pretty much what she's run so far.....though even faster!!

The most difficult HSR for her, in my opinion, would have been Kim Gallagher's 2:00.07.
But now she's broken even that one!

Mary herself said that Alberto told her she could run 800 in 1:58.
And she just might!!
If you can run 1:58, you can go under 4:00 for 1500, under 8:40 for 3K, under 15:00 for 5K, and sub-31:30 for 10K.

After her 4:32.78 indoor mile, Salazar said she was in 4:25 shape.
She ran "only" 4:28.25, but if she was in 4:25 shape, then she was also in 4:08 1500 shape.

That's why I wasn't shocked....and even predicted.....she ran that 4:04.62.
I still wasn't sold on a sub-2:00, so that one DID surprise me....a little!

If she gets into the right races....i.e. time trials....she'll run sub-4:00 and maybe sub-15:00.

As for her winning the races she has, not too surprising either.
The fields weren't the greatest...or the ones that WERE good weren't at their best (Moser in the 9:02, Uceny at Drake, etc).

She wasn't ready to challenge Dibaba in Boston.....and still isn't ready......but can she mix it up with SOME Africans...and the USA's finest??
Absolutely!!!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby booond » Wed Jun 26, 2013 3:39 pm

If you can run 1:58, you can go under 4:00 for 1500, under 8:40 for 3K, under 15:00 for 5K, and sub-31:30 for 10K.


Someone get Alysia Montano training for 10Ks... stat!!!!!!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Wed Jun 26, 2013 3:52 pm

booond wrote:
If you can run 1:58, you can go under 4:00 for 1500, under 8:40 for 3K, under 15:00 for 5K, and sub-31:30 for 10K.


Someone get Alysia Montano training for 10Ks... stat!!!!!!


:lol: :lol:

Nahhh!
But seriously, I DO believe Montano has AR potential......and sub-1:55 in her.
After she does that, then she can move up to the 1500!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby booond » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:05 pm

aaronk wrote:
booond wrote:
If you can run 1:58, you can go under 4:00 for 1500, under 8:40 for 3K, under 15:00 for 5K, and sub-31:30 for 10K.


Someone get Alysia Montano training for 10Ks... stat!!!!!!


:lol: :lol:

Nahhh!
But seriously, I DO believe Montano has AR potential......and sub-1:55 in her.
After she does that, then she can move up to the 1500!


Then running an 1:58 800 doesn't mean you can run a 31:30 10 k? I feel so foolish in believing you.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:21 pm

booond wrote:
aaronk wrote:
booond wrote:
If you can run 1:58, you can go under 4:00 for 1500, under 8:40 for 3K, under 15:00 for 5K, and sub-31:30 for 10K.


Someone get Alysia Montano training for 10Ks... stat!!!!!!


:lol: :lol:

Nahhh!
But seriously, I DO believe Montano has AR potential......and sub-1:55 in her.
After she does that, then she can move up to the 1500!


Then running an 1:58 800 doesn't mean you can run a 31:30 10 k? I feel so foolish in believing you.


Okay, let me explain my rationale.

Take Montano for now as an example.
She's run, I believe, a 52+ 400, and 1:57.34.
She normally goes out in the 56's.
For someone who can run 52, a 56, while not cruising, isn't overwhelming.
If her PR were 53-high, or low-54, then I'd say NO.
But I think it's 52-something.

She's run a few 1:57's.
So let's say she chooses to run a 1500.
The pacer (for a 4:00 time) would probably hit 2:08 or thereabouts.
For someone who can run 1:57 consistently, a 2:08 is VERY comfortable pace.
If trained for the longer distance, she wouldn't be anywhere near exhausted....or even tired.....at 2:08.
Continuing at that comfortable pace brings you to approximately 4:00.

Now to Mary Cain.
Now that she HAS run a 1:59.51, it makes me even MORE confident she could run all the times I stated.
Using the same philosophy stated above.
She has potential to run 1:58, Salazar said.
(See above for the Montano analogy!)
So she runs a 4:00 1500 someday soon.
And she wants to run a 3K or two mile.
An 8:30 3K is two 4:15's.
For someone who can run 4:00, a 4:15 is close to cruising speed.
(Look how relatively easy it is for her to now run 4:11's.......whereas her fastest 1500 a year ago was just that---4:11!!)
Again, if she's trained for longer distances----and she HAS run that one 5K---and if she has run that 4:00, then two 4:15's should be in her sights.
Ditto, using the same "logic", the 15:00 and the 31:30.
If she can run 15:00.......then going through 5K in a 10K at 15:45 pace should be relatively comfortable for her.

But she'd have to be trained for longer distances....have to WANT to run fast times at those distances....AND get into "time trial" races where she could be pulled along to those times.

Probably won't happen this year.....meaning the 5K or 10K.
But the sub-4:00??
Definitely possible......and predictable!

BTW, Salazar apparently said she can run 53.5 right now. (Cain's PR, she says, is 55.5!) Thus, with a 53.5 potential, that 1:59.51 isn't that surprising!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby booond » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:29 pm

But how do you go from 1:58 800 to 31:30 10K? Can you explain that with examples and not Mary Cain-populated dream sequences?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:39 pm

booond wrote:But how do you go from 1:58 800 to 31:30 10K? Can you explain that with examples and not Mary Cain-populated dream sequences?


Okay, just off the top of my head.......
Mary Slaney for one.
She began....at 14-15......as an 800/1500 (or 880/mile! :) ) girl.
After a few years, she tried the 3K, and set the still-standing AR of 8:25.
Her 1500 PR is 3:57.12.
An 8:25 is two 4:12's-4:13's.
She was probably relatively comfortable hitting halfway in approx 4:12, and continued to the AR.
Then she tried a 5K.....when 5K's and 10K's for women were still pretty rare!
She ran 15:06 and change.
(She had FAR greater potential in that, but stuck to the mile/3K distances most of her career, so never really developed herself over 5K--10K.)
But then she ran that 10K WR (Yes, a WORLD record!!) in Eugene....31:35.3.....running in FLATS!!!

No doubt I could find some Europeans or Africans with similar build-ups in distance....successfully.
How about Grete Waitz....who started with the 1500/3K distances, and then ran WR's in the marathon?
Sonia O'Sullivan??
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Marlow » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:44 pm

I really do think you're barking up the wrong tree with Montano. Almost every race she runs (granted, she goes out like a bat-outta-hell), her last 50 is very unfluid. I really don't think she has a great 1500 in her and CERTAINLY not a 5K, much less a 10K.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby DoubleRBar » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:49 pm

I think mcgato makes a good point with Ryun and Lindgren. They both had sensational 1964 seasons. They both had unfortunate problems at the Tokyo Olympic Games.

What if Ryun had not been ill in Tokyo? What if Lindgren had not injured his ankle in Tokyo?

Even with those problems, they did a great job that year.

Mary Cain's year is not finished. Let's hope she stays healthy and focused.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby ATK » Wed Jun 26, 2013 4:57 pm

JumboElliott wrote:
gh wrote:interesting e-mail I got:

<<Has any US athlete [maybe discounting sub-HS track] male or female had a perfect season like Mary Cain?

She has set a record (albeit HS) at every distance she has tried this year.

She is a US national champion (indoors) in her first US Championship and has made the highest (Olympic or WC) team available to her in her first attempt.

Obviously no high schooler has done that and I would doubt many collegians or pros.>>

Jenny Barringer in 2009?

Obviously it wasn't her first time making a national team, but it was pretty close.

I agree. Records at everything she tried that year (did she ever do 800 in the college season?)
Plus the American Record in the steeple (even though she technically already had it.)

But I think Cain in 2013 is basically Barringer in 2009. (but I give the nod to Jenny since she was actually competing with her peers. :wink: )
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby DoubleRBar » Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:03 pm

Check out Tim Layden's article in the latest Sports Illustrated on page 46. It is titled "Here Comes Mary Cain".
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Blues » Wed Jun 26, 2013 5:53 pm

I think Cain's incredible, and I love watching her compete, but I'm not sure it's a valid comparison to compare her accomplishments to any other high school athlete who didn't also have the benefit of being able to prepare for elite meets without having to worry about a high school team schedule, and who didn't also have the rare benefit of being coached by one of the finest professional coaches in the world...
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby nicest person ever » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:08 pm

Btw (sorry if this is a little too off topic for the thread, and if so, please disregard this post), but how do you think Mary Cain's raw distance running talent compares to Kim Mortensen before she suffered her issues with anorexia that put her out of commission? Like, I guess it's not a great comparison since Kim's major explosion on the national scene was as a senior, whereas I think Mary is still just a junior, but, since I'm not that familiar with girls prep distance running (I'll admit it), and the last time I really watched it all that carefully was when Mortsensen was a high school senior and committed to UCLA (I'm a UCLA fan), I guess she would be a reference point for me. Like how many levels below, equal, or above, as a natural talent is Mary, by comparison? And obv I realize I could just go look at their P.R.'s or whatever, but the reason I am asking here instead is that obviously there's a lot more to it than that, like, the race conditions during their strongest performances, as well as how the tactics of the race unfolded etc can make for all sorts of factors that make it hard to just compare the stopwatch numbers and have a solid idea, thus me asking you guys for your personal opinions/thoughts etc on it.

For American girls prep stars do you think Cain is like a 1 in 5 year type of phenom? 1 in 10 year? 1 in 20 year? 1 in 50 year? And what about Mortensen (prior to her issues taking effect), by comparison?

Again, sorry if this is too novice-ish of a question and/or too off topic to address, if so please disregard. I'm just really excited to see what appears to be an incredible up and comer, as well as a great track personality emerging in Cain, and want to start following her career closer from now on, but have been out of the loop for so long of girls/womens prep/college distance events that I'm pretty rusty and could use a brief filling in on what we're dealing with here if anyone's game for it.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Brian » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:18 pm

nicest person ever wrote:Again, sorry if this is too novice-ish of a question and/or too off topic to address, if so please disregard.


Not to worry; no such thing.

It's all good.
:]
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Wed Jun 26, 2013 7:30 pm

nicest person ever
Be happy to take your post on.
Don't know much about Mortensen, except for that time for 3200, 9:48.59, from 1996.
BTW, it's listed in HS Track as a two mile, converted time of 9:52.03!!
There are no other times listed for her, either indoors or out, at any distance!!

So my guess is she was best at 2 miles/3200/3000, and never ran any other distance....or at least not fast enough to make a fairly deep A-T list in HS Track!!
As for her anorexia, didn't know about that!

But it reminds me of another HS girl, Caitlin Chock, who set a HSR in the 5000 of 15:52.88 in 2004.
That mark was broken twice, first by Emily Sisson, then by Cain this year.
Chock has other A-T list marks, in the mile and 2 mile.

And she also suffered from anorexia!
Also, she was coached for awhile by Alberto Salazar, right out of high school.
She seemed to be doing okay, but I didn't see any race results, so wondered what happened to her.
She quit Salazar's group, but not because of Alberto!

She now has a VERY entertaining blog, draws these VERY funny and good cartoons, and runs, but apparently not competitively.
She's only 26, and I keep hoping she'll come back to elite-level running.

Mortensen, a 1996 graduate of HS, is probably the same age as Kara Goucher, but have no idea what she's doing, or how she is.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Rothosen » Thu Jun 27, 2013 3:55 am

I'll vote for at least one in thirty years. Not only are all the records she is breaking thirty years old but she is absolutely crushing them.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Master Po » Thu Jun 27, 2013 4:15 am

aaronk wrote:...
Mortensen, a 1996 graduate of HS, is probably the same age as Kara Goucher, but have no idea what she's doing, or how she is.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Mortensen

Wikipedia isn't the greatest source of information, but in this case, I think it's right...the Wiki entry for Kim Mortensen reports that, as of a 2008 interview, she was married, a mother of 2, and teaching middle school at Oaks Christian School, in Westlake Village CA. And, assuming this is all current, it looks like that's still the case:

http://www.oakschristian.org/aboutus/fa ... duleid=336

If all this is accurate & up to date, it looks like she's doing OK. Her athletics career may not have developed in the way she and others might have hoped, but to flourish beyond anorexia is an accomplishment in itself. If her role as a teacher allows her the opportunity to help other girls and young women avoid that debilitating and deadly condition -- and to help them in other ways -- then that's a great thing, imo.
:)

Going back to the earlier topic of this thread, I wonder if anyone has a detailed performance list for Ryun's 1964 season. I know the highlights, but have never seen a complete list of his races & progression for that year. Same for Lindgren.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby batonless relay » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:04 am

Rothosen wrote:I'll vote for at least one in thirty years. Not only are all the records she is breaking thirty years old but she is absolutely crushing them.

That's the thing that is most baffling about Cain. Her talent is undeniable and her accomplishments as well, but everything about the WAY she runs says that the US should have at least 50 more - even on the high school level! Maybe even 100. When we think of prodigies they tend to be "beyond their years" or have "extraordinary" assets: height, weight, etc that we can point to and say, "that's it". For Bolt it's his height, maybe for Jacko it's his height, strength and speed (work ethic!), but with Cain ... I don't see anything "physically" that is an "advantage".

-her build (height and weight) isn't remarkable. She just looks like a healthy high school girl runner, not fat not skinny.
-maturation. She looks like a kid, acts like a kid. You don't get the feeling of "maturity beyond years" aside from her perrformances
-her biomechanics. No offense but she looks WORSE than every other athlete I've ever seen who can run the times that Cain can. She's not as "beautiful" to watch as young Decker. Not even close. If you stripped away all of the other athletes she'd look like any other 16 year old runner who was decent; she might even look worse.

I can see why Salazar is high on her. I'm sure he keeps thinking: what's she going to do when he can improve any one of the other things that can really alter her performances.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Master Po » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:25 am

Here's one way to think about Ryun's 1964 with Cain's 2013: TFN's USA-ranking of Ryun for 1964 was #4. While there is a lot more competition to come over the next 2 months, as of now, it would seem that Cain is headed for a rather high USA ranking at 1500. The only USA runner she has not beaten at 1500/mile (looking at the entire season -- indoor & outdoor, & at 1500 & mile) is Jenny Simpson, who beat Cain at Drake. As for all the other USA athletes who have beaten Cain, Cain has in return some other victory over them, and with most of those Cain's victory was in a more important competition:

In addition to Simpson, Kate Grace, Shannon Rowbury & Gabrielle Anderson beat Cain at Drake, but Cain defeated both Rowbury & Anderson at USATF; she defeated Grace at Millrose.

Sarah Bowman Brown & Nicole Schappert beat Cain at NB Indoor, but Cain defeated Bowman Brown multiple other times, and defeated Schappert at Oxy.

Katie Mackey defeated Cain at Oxy, but Cain defeated her at USATF.

Moser of course defeated Cain at USATF, but Cain did defeat her at USATF Indoor.

That's a very good record of head-to-head competition this year at 1500/mile, in addition to being in the top 5 on the USA performance list.

So, at this point, I would put two USA 1500/milers ahead of Cain: Simpson (beat Cain, & has faster SB); Moser (beat Cain at more important competition, & has faster SB). So, right now, for me, Cain is #3 USA at 1500/mile.

I'm sure someone more expert than me at the methodology of rankings (that would be pretty much anyone...), will point out the flaws in my approach, but given that my analysis doesn't matter in any case, that liberates me to approach it this way.

(But -- absent something extraordinary in the next two months -- I would still say that Ryun's 1964 is superior to Cain's 2013, for several reasons. Just my opinion.)
:)
Last edited by Master Po on Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:33 am

people keep forgetting about ajee Wilson who made the team at 800 and has proved herself the past 2 years

I suppose cain gets some euro training to sharpen up for Moscow.

i'd say getting into the finals would be the goal i'd have for her now
a medal would be next to impossible, but another pr should be fine with me

between the Russians and africas, or former Africans the last lap will be scary fast in the w1500
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:45 am

Master Po wrote:Here's one way to think about Ryun's 1964 with Cain's 2013: TFN's USA-ranking of Ryun for 1964 was #4. While there is a lot more competition to come over the next 2 months, as of now, it would seem that Cain is headed for a rather high USA ranking at 1500......

In addition to Simpson, Kate Grace, Shannon Rowbury & Gabrielle Anderson beat Cain at Drake, but Cain defeated both Rowbury & Anderson at USATF; she defeated Grace at Millrose.

Sarah Bowman Brown & Nicole Schappert beat Cain at NB Indoor, but Cain defeated Bowman Brown multiple other times, and defeated Schappert at Oxy.

Katie Mackey defeated Cain at Oxy, but Cain defeated her at USATF.

Moser of course defeated Cain at USATF, but Cain did defeat her at USATF Indoor.....


T&FN will ignore all the indoor races when it comes to U.S. Ranks.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Master Po » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:52 am

^ Yes. I did know that when I put that post together. In any case, I think the outdoor focus strengthen's Cain's rankings position, as some of those who have beaten her in 2013 only did so indoors. Among USA athletes, other than Simpson & Moser, only Kate Grace has beaten Cain outdoors without otherwise being beaten by Cain at USATF (where they did not face each other), and so I would still rank Cain ahead of her at this distance. At this point in the season, it still seems -- to me -- to make Cain #3, behind Moser & Simpson. (But note the current market value of my opinion, which is trending toward .01 US $.)
:)
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby booond » Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:54 am

aaronk wrote:
booond wrote:But how do you go from 1:58 800 to 31:30 10K? Can you explain that with examples and not Mary Cain-populated dream sequences?


Okay, just off the top of my head.......
Mary Slaney for one.
She began....at 14-15......as an 800/1500 (or 880/mile! :) ) girl.
After a few years, she tried the 3K, and set the still-standing AR of 8:25.
Her 1500 PR is 3:57.12.
An 8:25 is two 4:12's-4:13's.
She was probably relatively comfortable hitting halfway in approx 4:12, and continued to the AR.
Then she tried a 5K.....when 5K's and 10K's for women were still pretty rare!
She ran 15:06 and change.
(She had FAR greater potential in that, but stuck to the mile/3K distances most of her career, so never really developed herself over 5K--10K.)
But then she ran that 10K WR (Yes, a WORLD record!!) in Eugene....31:35.3.....running in FLATS!!!

No doubt I could find some Europeans or Africans with similar build-ups in distance....successfully.
How about Grete Waitz....who started with the 1500/3K distances, and then ran WR's in the marathon?
Sonia O'Sullivan??



Decker didn't run under 15 for 5k or 31:30 for 10k and Sonia O'Sullivan never broke 2:00 for 800. It isn't easy to hit all those marks. Anyone who does it will be quite the exception and not the rule.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Master Po » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:26 am

I will look this up when I have time later, but for the moment -- since the question of this range (800-10k) at a high level of excellence has been raised: Who is in the sub-2:00, sub-4:00, sub-15:00, sub-31:30 club? (One can feel free to throw in some appropriate 3k time too, if interested.) Is there anyone? Who is close to those marks across that range?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:40 am

pretty hard to beat Mary Slaney, methinks, from 1:56 to 31:35 (a WR at the time).
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Rothosen » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:47 am

 
For Bolt it's his height, maybe for Jacko it's his height, strength and speed (work ethic!), but with Cain ... I don't see anything "physically" that is an "advantage"


I read an article a while back about a biopsy that was done on Mary Decker's thigh muscle, and the result being an unheard of 50:50 split of aerobic and anerobic muscle fibers compare to the normal 65:35 (or the opposite, I can't recall which) split normal people have.

Not saying this is the case here but there is ample studies of the role genetics play in these one in a million types. Centrowitz anyone? Molly Huddle for sure. It was amusing when the Finger Lakes runners club would hold a race and granddad would win the major division, Dad would win the mens, and 9th grade Molly would win the womens.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby booond » Thu Jun 27, 2013 7:58 am

gh wrote:pretty hard to beat Mary Slaney, methinks, from 1:56 to 31:35 (a WR at the time).


Yes, she's very close and she's the exception. It isn't automatic that one can run 1:58 to 31:30 or even, as a different test, be top-10 across those events in a career's lifetime. The person or people who do that are exceptional athletes, it isn't routine by any means.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby aaronk » Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:08 am

Lindgren and Ryun are two of my favorite subjects.
I in fact saw each of them race more than once.
Ryun in his 1st sub-4:00 at Compton (8th in the race at 3:59.0, 1964), and his 8:25.2 two mile against Jim Grelle (same time!!) at the 1966 Coliseum Relays.
Ryun had splits of 4:15 and 4:10, with his last lap of 56.4.
He and Grelle ran stride-for-stride almost the whole way!

I saw Lindgren run his 8:46.0 indoor two mile (against Gaston Roelants).
Then saw him at Compton (same meet where I saw Ryun!), where he ran his 13:44.0.
Then saw him against the Russians, winning that race in 29:17.6 (1964).
Finally, I saw him run that classic 6 mile duel with Olympic Games Champion Billy Mills in San Diego in June 1965.
By then, he was a WSU frosh.

To compare the 1964 Lindgren and Ryun, one must remember Lindgren was a 17-18 year old senior in HS, Ryun a 16-17 year old junior.
In 1965, Lindgren was 18-19, Ryun 17-18!

Lindgren's 1964 was FAR superior to Ryun's!!
Their 1965 seasons were, IMO, about even.

In 1964, Lindgren's season, both indoors and outdoors, was most near Mary Cain's!
9:00.0 two mile indoors---HSR
8:46.0 two mile indoors---HSR
8:40.0 two mile indoors---HSR (The latter two against international competition!)
4:01.5 mile
13:44.0 5000---HSR (against GREAT competition)
29:17.6 10000---HSR (against the Russians)
29:02.0 10000---Trials victory
29:20 10000---in Olympic Games....on sprained ankle!!!

Ryun broke 4:00 (3:59.0), but also ran a 3:39.0 for 1500, which was actually his HS PR, as he ran "just" 3:40.4 in his 1965 best mile enroute.
BTW, people gave him more credit for his 3:59 than for his 3:39, even though the 1500 was clearly a superior quality mark! No one was into metrics then!
Ryun didn't have much at other distances in HS....not till after HS.

In 1965, Lindgren's best race was his 27:11.6 6 mile (see above).
But Ryun had his 3:55.3 win against Peter Snell, and a HSR.
Not much else that I remember.....meaning nothing of higher quality.

Ryun's best seasons were 1966 and 1967, when he was a Kansas frosh and soph!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 8:31 am

when looking at slaney, I agree but her age when she did some of them needs to be addressed, particulary when comparing cain to decker

when both were 17 what did decker run, not the mature decker who ws wining golds in 1983
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby GDAWG » Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:23 am

Has there ever been anyone going pro before their senior year of high school?
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby positive force » Thu Jun 27, 2013 9:48 am

The historical comparisons between individuals here are fascinating; I'm also interested in the "perfect storm" aspect of Mary Cain's season, as referenced in the topic. How did circumstances align help Cain's singular season (and it's not over)? Two national championships run at kicker's delight paces, several strong competitors being off their games in a non-Olympic year, Salazar being open to arranging their special coaching relationship.

None of this is meant to take away from Cain's historic talent, drive or will. I fervently hope this perfect storm will continue through her career, allowing her to grow into the best runner she can be, an all-time great on the world stage. Would love people's thoughts!
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby gh » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:05 am

booond wrote:
gh wrote:pretty hard to beat Mary Slaney, methinks, from 1:56 to 31:35 (a WR at the time).


Yes, she's very close and she's the exception. It isn't automatic that one can run 1:58 to 31:30 or even, as a different test, be top-10 across those events in a career's lifetime. The person or people who do that are exceptional athletes, it isn't routine by any means.


Also got to remember that in '73 (the year she ranked no. 4 in the world in the 800) she was 14/15 (birthday in early August)!

And to extend the range a bit more, that same year she ran 53.84 in the 400, which put her about 60th on the yearly world list.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Marlow » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:14 am

Having seen several female running prodigies up close and from the beginning, there is nothing remarkable about them AT ALL, certainly not the bodies as athletic entities. What they ALL had in common and Cain has in aces is a god-given, innate ability to transport oxygen to her muscles. And that system's ability to be 'trained'. Not her muscles, it's her oxygen-exchange system. One of our girls ran a 5:30 Mile in PE class in 7th grade after ZERO distance training. She wasn't particularly 'fast' (couldn't break 70 during the following track season), but she just didn't get tired.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Samurai_Runner » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:15 am

aaronk wrote:Okay, let me explain my rationale....

Making generalizations based on these type of extrapolations really is a stretch, especially if it is only applied to one person and she hasn't even raced at a 10k. I don't believe in projecting people's times or capabilities based on some theoretical formula (which has no scientific basis), which is the same for everyone. Abilities & training for an 800 do not translate to what someone could run for a 10k.
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby az2004 » Thu Jun 27, 2013 10:33 am

cain seemed very comfortable running in a crowd, wonder if the cntact you can see in some euro races will fluster her

I suspect not, not my expectations on her in Moscow is get to the next round


woryy about a medal in 2014 junior meet
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Re: Mary Cain's "perfect storm"

Postby Marlow » Thu Jun 27, 2013 11:18 am

az2004 wrote:I suspect not, not my expectations on her in Moscow is get to the next round

Given her kick (which is even more important in the qual rounds than the final, given the cautious paces) and Salazar's savvy, I see her making the final (!!!) and then somewhere in the 4-8 range of the final, which would be, of course, FANTASTIC! A 4:02 perhaps?!
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