¶USATF Dec: Ashton Eaton 8291


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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:40 am

(Accidentally posted this in the USA Multis thread, so re-posted here)

On Eaton "going for it:"

Marra has said more than once that he did not start thinking WR at Eugene last year until Eaton went so high in the PV. I presume that's the way he and Eaton will approach this meet: Get started well, see what happens.

Also note this quote from a recent interview with Marra (posted on decathlon2000):

"I remember in 1997 in Götzis when I was training Brian Brophy. He was really doing good in the pole vault and jumped 4.80. But he felt something in the upper part of his leg. I said don’t jump higher, it’s a good jump (Brophy’s pb was 4.95). Continue you’re decathlon, throw a good javelin and run you’re 1.5 K and you’ll have a good decathlon. He insisted to try 4.90. He tried and he blew the whole thing. The rest of the year he had to revalidate, the whole year was gone and he could only start again the next year."

Surely Marra will be sensitive to any tweaks Eaton might feel. He will not be reluctant to tell him to back off if there is a risk of injury.

One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.

On the other hand, I agree with eiluke: WRs aren't easy, even for Eaton. The DT is the key event here, I believe. He's been working on it a lot this year. He also knows he has a much higher upside than last year in the 8th event, the PV. If the WR is in sight after the DT, and wind in the earlier events is allowable, and there's no injury concern, he'll go for it.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby norunner » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:43 am

DecFan wrote:One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.
Looking at the results of day 1 it seems to me the only problem they may face is too much wind in the opposite direction. All the track events i checked had headwind up to almost -6m/s.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:46 am

norunner wrote:
DecFan wrote:One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.
Looking at the results of day 1 it seems to me the only problem they may face is too much wind in the opposite direction. All the track events i checked had headwind up to almost -6m/s.


Look at the heptahlon 100h (they ran the opposite direction). And look at the TJ.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby norunner » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:02 am

DecFan wrote:Look at the heptahlon 100h (they ran the opposite direction). And look at the TJ.
Did they do that on purpose to avoid the headwind? And i know about the TJ, but even a strong tailwind for the long jump isn't going to do much good if you first have to battle against -3-6m/s over 100m. If anything too much tailwind during LJ may hurt because it screws up the approach.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:18 am

"play it safe" or world record, I just out of fun collected Eaton's best individual results to make a prediction, of what to expect from Eaton, if he's on an average day.
I did not include wind assisted (>2,0 m/s) marks and 2nd best attempts in any competition.
If Eaton in every event just puts up his 8th best personal mark:
10.37
7.85
14.56
2.05
46.74
13.76
45.40
5.10
56.19
4:28.93
8767 pts would be the outcome.
Discus is a questionmark, the other expectations shouldn't be much of a problem for him, if healthy.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby olorin » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:06 am

Weather is hot and windy.
Hope it will not affect the results too much.
Happy posting everyone and hope that they will broadcast the competition.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:29 am

Here's a set of projections, before things get underway. I expect Eaton to be a little lower than that, and Nixon to be higher.

Ashton Eaton 9094
Gunnar Nixon 8107
Jeremy Taiwo 8104
Dakotah Keys 7931
Isaac Murphy 7920
Jon Ryan Harlan 7886
Gray Horn 7871
Jake Arnold 7778
Austin Bahner 7664
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Re: USA Multis

Postby bruce3404 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:42 am

Late tweet last night indicated they were going to run the sprints in the direction of the wind for the rest of the meet and, as noted, the multi events were run that way yesterday.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby booond » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:57 am

Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:09 am

booond wrote:Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?


Regrettably, unless Taiwo and Nixon disappoint, I don't see anyone with a real chance to do so, beyond Isaac Murphy (who has the B from the NCAA champs). Perhaps Ryan Harlan could surprise, but I think it's more a matter of Taiwo and Nixon avoiding injury and catastrophe - they have more talent and upside.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Dave » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:13 am

So, if Nixon gets third with less than 8200, does he still make the team?
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:17 am

booond wrote:Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?


Grey Horn is a possibility. PRs sum over 8300, but he has never put together 10 good events in one decathlon. JT is the biggest question mark for him. His PR is over 56m, but in his two decathlons this spring he threw around 48 and 45. If he can go 10.9 7.5 13.7 2.05 in the first four events, he'll be in contention.

Miller Moss is a more likely possibility. PRs sum to 8462. Hasn't competed much in the last two years with injuries, but had an 8000+ score going this spring before a disastrous JT, and didn't run the 1500. Look today particularly at his HJ - 2.04 PR, but only jumped 1.93 in his spring decathlon.

Then there's Isaac Murphy. PRs sum just over 8300, and he seems a bit more consistent than Horn or Moss. Had an outstanding NCAA meet to score 8086 and take 4th, though compared to PRs did relatively poorly in the 1500 there. The first two events today will be telling for him: If he can go under 10.6 and over 7.4, he'll be in great position.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:21 am

Dave wrote:So, if Nixon gets third with less than 8200, does he still make the team?


Yes. In addition to Hardee, the US can send two A qualifiers and one B qualifier. A is 8200, B is 8000.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:04 am

Horn with a very fine (for him) 10.76 in the 100.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:08 am

Nixon with a PR 10.80. He looked very good.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Dave » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:10 am

Eaton 10.48. Not seeing a WR here, but who knows.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:11 am

My projections (not predictions) after 1 event (leaving Eaton out . . .)

Nixon 8224
Taiwo 8211
Murphy 8034
Moss 8025
Keys 7930
Horn 7885
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby booond » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:13 am

DecFan wrote:
booond wrote:Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?


Grey Horn is a possibility. PRs sum over 8300, but he has never put together 10 good events in one decathlon. JT is the biggest question mark for him. His PR is over 56m, but in his two decathlons this spring he threw around 48 and 45. If he can go 10.9 7.5 13.7 2.05 in the first four events, he'll be in contention.

Miller Moss is a more likely possibility. PRs sum to 8462. Hasn't competed much in the last two years with injuries, but had an 8000+ score going this spring before a disastrous JT, and didn't run the 1500. Look today particularly at his HJ - 2.04 PR, but only jumped 1.93 in his spring decathlon.

Then there's Isaac Murphy. PRs sum just over 8300, and he seems a bit more consistent than Horn or Moss. Had an outstanding NCAA meet to score 8086 and take 4th, though compared to PRs did relatively poorly in the 1500 there. The first two events today will be telling for him: If he can go under 10.6 and over 7.4, he'll be in great position.


Thanks.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:16 am

And a similar set of projections, for contrast:

Ashton Eaton 9051
Gunnar Nixon 8141
Jeremy Taiwo 8086
Isaac Murphy 7931
Gray Horn 7925
Miller Moss 7919
Dakotah Keys 7914
Jon Ryan Harlan 7863
Jake Arnold 7774

If we take the 100m performance as indicative of fitness, then Nixon and Horn look particularly sharp (so we can revise expectations upwards), and Eaton seems off, which could be simply a conservative approach. But WR, that projection above notwithstanding, seems unlikely, on the strength of the first event.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Dave » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:00 am

TimRoy wrote:And a similar set of projections, for contrast:

Ashton Eaton 9051
Gunnar Nixon 8141
Jeremy Taiwo 8086
Isaac Murphy 7931
Gray Horn 7925
Miller Moss 7919
Dakotah Keys 7914
Jon Ryan Harlan 7863
Jake Arnold 7774

If we take the 100m performance as indicative of fitness, then Nixon and Horn look particularly sharp (so we can revise expectations upwards), and Eaton seems off, which could be simply a conservative approach. But WR, that projection above notwithstanding, seems unlikely, on the strength of the first event.


Eaton's first jump is pretty lackluster(for him) with 7.59. The wind is a slight tail wind so I wonder if something else is holding him back.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:03 am

Nixon is the only decathlete to exceed my projections on the first jump. He's looking good.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:08 am

DecFan wrote:Nixon is the only decathlete to exceed my projections on the first jump. He's looking good.


Agreed. And the other jumpers have been, across the board, terrible (relative to each person's usual level) - some 70-150 points below expected. There must be some explanation for why everyone (except Nixon) has started poorly.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:19 am

Woah! Big Pr for Nixon, 7.62. Projects up to 8291 now!
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:24 am

And I know that Nixon can do even better.
Maybe not yet, but he rans 60m in 6.86 and jumps 2.17 high. Healthy and with the right technique theese are the tools for an 8m jumper
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:26 am

Nixon is the story right now, leaping a pb when everyone else in contention is well down on their usual. He's on pace for the A, and second place to Eaton. Great to see - a very likeable young up-and-comer. Of course, still 8 events to go.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:27 am

Eaton passes his 3rd jump, leaving his best at 7.59. Something must not be quite right.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby nbonaddio » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:28 am

Just to sate my curiosity, what was the reasoning behind his leaving Arkansas? Just wanted to train full-time and not have to worry about all the class and grind of an NCAA schedule?
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:36 am

DecFan wrote:Eaton passes his 3rd jump, leaving his best at 7.59. Something must not be quite right.


I understand your concern, but note that everyone is down (except for Nixon)

Eaton is down 100 points
Hardee is down 130 points
Taiwo is down 100 points
Keys is down 120 points
Harlan is down 90 points
Murphy is down 160 points
Arnold is down 70 points
Bahner is down 60 points.

Something is not quite right, it seems, but it's affecting many more than just Eaton. The Long Jump has been a debacle for those hoping to score big.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:38 am

Poor event for many, but worst for Taiwo. He had a decent opening jump, but then had two fouls - the last by only about a cm - and so loses much compared to projections. Murphy also was way off. Only Nixon and Horn exceeded my projections.

After 2 events:
Nixon 8291
Taiwo 8070
Moss 7958
Horn 7895
Murphy 7873
Keys 7809
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:40 am

TimRoy wrote:
DecFan wrote:Eaton passes his 3rd jump, leaving his best at 7.59. Something must not be quite right.


I understand your concern, but note that everyone is down (except for Nixon)



"Something must not be quite right" because of his choosing to pass when he hadn't jumped within 60cm of his PR, not because of the distance.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:01 am

I see your distinction.

I attribute the decision to pass to his looking at results down across the board, and to the likely strategy adopted entering the meet of doing only as much as necessary, which his 7.59 certainly achieved. But perhaps there's something deeper.

A contrasting set of projections:

Ashton Eaton 8946
Gunnar Nixon 8220
Jeremy Taiwo 7981
Gray Horn 7911
Miller Moss 7878
Dakotah Keys 7793
Jon Ryan Harlan 7777
Isaac Murphy 7770
Jake Arnold 7706
Austin Bahner 7599

My predictions would have Eaton and Taiwo down on that, and Nixon and Horn (and perhaps Moss) higher.

The team for Moscow looks like Hardee (wildcard), Eaton, Nixon (on pace for the A), and either Taiwo (on the strength of his previous A) or Horn or Moss, if one of those two can both beat Taiwo and exceed the B, 8,000. There's some drama left, but the wind is out of the sails after the long jump, except to see how well Nixon can do.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby tm71 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:02 am

DecFan wrote:Eaton passes his 3rd jump, leaving his best at 7.59. Something must not be quite right.



seems like hardee is having a training session which is understandable since he has the wild card. eaton is just going thru the motions to make the team since he knows that no more than two others could go over 8200. i agree that WR is totally out of the question, in fact i dont think he will score over 8700 which is still a great score for anyone else but him.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:07 am

So if Eaton is physically OK and his goal is just to make the team, why even making a 2nd attempt after 7.59 in the 1st?
I'm sorry but him being slightly injured to me appears very likely when trying to read something in this decision.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Jackaloupe » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:13 am

Disappointed as I was to not see a better start--100m was lackluster, but "self-contained" also covers it--not too much should be read into the LJ: First jump, w/ +1.6 wind, was not that bad, if losing plenty w/ leg drop; second had neg. wind (-1.0?); so in view of nearly everyone else sub-par, and the wind continuing negative, it was a sensible decision, esp. since WR was no longer a consideration, and the LJ can be hazardous.
Edit: As to "why take 2nd jump?" Why not, as 26 ft. is routine for AE, just didn't happen. After that, ~25 ft., w/ wind continuing negative, suddenly looked good enough, so it no longer made sense to go for more; nor were additional points looking at all necessary.

I'd say we're back in WorkOut mode: looking for consistency ~15m in SP, somewhere N of 205 in HJ, after starting ~195 (Will they use 3 cm increments?), w. close attention to that li'l knee tendon. Level of effort in 400m will be interesting: I'd expect high 46, going out in that same relaxed 23ish, and holding it, maybe even looking around.

[Now w/ Weather Alert, the Pass is looking downright prescient, although raindrops could be seen, and maybe heavy clouds on the horizon.] Hope those dozen or so spectators come back. Latest announcement: Stadium reopening @ 12:29 (My, aren't we precise!?!) But what's with that "15 minutes for warmups". Seems fair to give Decathletes time for a general warmup before SP warmups, per se; but maybe that's what they meant. Since they're over in the Fieldhouse, keeping warm shouldn't be a problem.
Last edited by Jackaloupe on Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:16 am

My take was that the B-standard is just something to allow a country to send at least one athlete in case no athlete in this country has reached the A-Standard.
Since Eaton (2012) and Taiwo (2013) do already have the A-Standard, the B-standard to my understanding is useless and does not allow to send an additional athlete.
Am I wrong and are you guys sure in terms of the B-Standard?
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby tm71 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:19 am

eiluke wrote:My take was that the B-standard is just something to allow a country to send at least one athlete in case no athlete in this country has reached the A-Standard.
Since Eaton (2012) and Taiwo (2013) do already have the A-Standard, the B-standard to my understanding is useless and does not allow to send an additional athlete.
Am I wrong and are you guys sure in terms of the B-Standard?



two As and one B can go along with hardee in this event
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:20 am

I believe you are wrong in the case of the Worlds (with the Olympics, it was a different rule): you can take up to three athletes (exclusive of wild cards), only one of which can be a B.

Finishing top three at the trials is given priority, so if, for example, Horn finishes 3rd, and has a B standard, he'd go to Moscow ahead of Taiwo, with his A (assuming Eaton and Nixon finish 1-2 with A standards). If Nixon finished 2nd with a B, that would bump Horn out, and Taiwo back in.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Marlow » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:23 am

Marlow wrote:Will Eaton just go through the motions here (8600) or try to bust one as he did at the Trials?

I think my question has been answered.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:26 am

thanks tm71.

This makes me wondering why Beach did not try to start.
8200 would have been too much of a hurdle, but this way Beach even throwing jav with the the wrong arm would have had a small chance to make the team, since he already has B-standard
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 9:34 am

Jackaloupe wrote: (Will they use 3 cm increments?)


Yes, HJ always 3 cm and PV 10cm. No 'choice' for the winning athlete because there is no 'winning' the HJ or PV.

With a head wind and an adequate LJ and a moderate 100, the cards were not going to lead to a WR (or even a meet record :wink: ) and so he will just go through to get a decent score. I suppose he might push enough so that if he gets a nm in a throw he might still make the team (have to beat the second B etc.).
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