¶USATF Dec: Ashton Eaton 8291


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Re: USA Multis

Postby Fortius19 » Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:41 pm

Christian Schenk

7.73 / 2.27 (Deca WR) / 5.00 = 2963 points
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Wed Jun 19, 2013 3:49 pm

eiluke wrote:Hello guys, new decthlon fan here from germany.

As for the recent discussion, the best athlete in group of events :jumping (long, high, pole) to my knowledge is still Dan O'Brian
long 8.08
high 2.20
pole 5.25
total. 3061 pts
If you include his wind assisted (+2,3) long jump of 8.11 his PB would be even at 3069 pts

Welcome Eiluke to T&F news and especially to "our" little multi event community.
If you read above you will see that DecFan posted that there are three ways to examine this question:

a) Sum the scores from a single decathlon
b) Sum the scores from marks made in any decathlon
c) Sum the scores from PRs, made in any competition

Both DecFan and my posts are related to the first way. Your calculation is done as sums of PRs. It is not surprising that O'Brian is in top place in the sum of PRs as he is still the "WR" record. Eaton is closing fast both in the entire decathlon and in the jumps (current sum of PRs 3030). If the report that he is jumping ~5.50 in the PV will materials it will happen sooner than later.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby unclezadok » Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:17 pm

The thing about Eaton is that he is tending to get his best decathlon marks in the same decathlon or within 1-2 decathlons. At his level, this tends to produce WRs. Am I a genius or what?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Wed Jun 19, 2013 4:45 pm

unclezadok wrote:The thing about Eaton is that he is tending to get his best decathlon marks in the same decathlon or within 1-2 decathlons. At his level, this tends to produce WRs. Am I a genius or what?

Of course you are a genius, regardless of the accuracy of your post
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Dave » Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:02 pm

Does eaton go for it or play it safe at nationals? He didn't exactly play it safe at the trials last year.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby bruce3404 » Wed Jun 19, 2013 6:34 pm

Dave wrote:Does eaton go for it or play it safe at nationals? He didn't exactly play it safe at the trials last year.


He plays it safe. During the 2012 Trials, he was still the second best in the US behind Hardee. He had his hometown faithful cheering for him and it was his first USATF title. He'll still win the USATF title barring something horrible happening, but I think he saves his best for the world stage in August. We may even see a few one and done events (LJ, DT, SP, JT). No point in risking injury and my guess is that a WR at a major championship just might make more contractual sense.
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USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby gktrack » Thu Jun 20, 2013 1:20 am

T&FN Formchart Red = A (8200), Blue = B (8000)

1. Ashton Eaton (Oregon TC)
2. Jeremy Taiwo (Washington)
3. Gunnar Nixon (unattached)
4. Isaac Murphy (Texas)
5. Ryan Harlan (unattached)
6. Dakotah Keys (Oregon)
7. Terry Prentice (unattached)
8. Gray Horn (unattached)
9. Wesley Bray (unattached)
10. Miller Moss (unattached)

Edit: Gray Horn was shown on the formchart in red, but to my knowledge, does not have an A or B, so he is now in black. Same for Wesley Bray.
Last edited by gktrack on Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby aaronk » Thu Jun 20, 2013 1:35 am

With all due respect to the toughness of doing "multiple multi's", I wish there was a rule that forced athletes to complete their event (whether a multi, a 10K, or whatever!).....AND made them do an "honest effort"!!

In other words, I'd LOVE to see a 2012 Trials redux!!
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:37 am

Schedule, Eastern times:
Friday:
11am 100
noon LJ
1:45 SP
3:15 HJ
5:50 400
Sounds like all Friday events should be on USATF.tv

Saturday:
10:30am 110h
11:30am DT
2 PV
4 JT A group
5 JT B group
6:18 1500
Hurdles, DT, and PV should be on USATF.tv. JT should also be on USATF.tv as a field event going on during the TV broadcast. Sounds like the 1500 will be viewable only on NBC Sports Network.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Marlow » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:30 am

Will Eaton just go through the motions here (8600) or try to bust one as he did at the Trials?
He can win the WC even with an all-out effort here (as he did last year).
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby norunner » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:37 am

Marlow wrote:Will Eaton just go through the motions here (8600) or try to bust one as he did at the Trials?
He can win the WC even with an all-out effort here (as he did last year).
Do they still pay 50000 USD for a world record at WCs? If so it would make much more sense for him to go for it in Moscow.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby olorin » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:42 am

Marlow wrote:Will Eaton just go through the motions here (8600) or try to bust one as he did at the Trials?
He can win the WC even with an all-out effort here (as he did last year).

My take:
In the decathlon every time you are injury free you should go for it as the next time you may not be so lucky. If Eaton will nail the 100 (sub 10.3) & LJ (~8.10) and with his new ability in the SP he will be above WR pace after three events. In this case I can't see him slowing down but rather go for a really big score
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby booond » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:50 am

olorin wrote:
Marlow wrote:Will Eaton just go through the motions here (8600) or try to bust one as he did at the Trials?
He can win the WC even with an all-out effort here (as he did last year).

My take:
In the decathlon every time you are injury free you should go for it as the next time you may not be so lucky. If Eaton will nail the 100 (sub 10.3) & LJ (~8.10) and with his new ability in the SP he will be above WR pace after three events. In this case I can't see him slowing down but rather go for a really big score


It's tough to go through the motions as some events will bite you in the ass big time without full effort.

If no one is injured or gets shut out this event should follow form.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Marlow » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:52 am

booond wrote:It's tough to go through the motions as some events will bite you in the ass big time without full effort.

True in many events, but the 400 and 1500 can lose alotta points if you're not all-out. AE's magnificent effort in the 1500 last year (yeah, I cried watching it up-close-and-personal) sealed the WR.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby olorin » Thu Jun 20, 2013 10:06 am

gktrack wrote:T&FN Formchart Red = A (8200), Blue = B (8000)

1. Ashton Eaton (Oregon TC)
2. Jeremy Taiwo (Washington)
3. Gunnar Nixon (unattached)
4. Isaac Murphy (Texas)
5. Ryan Harlan (unattached)
6. Dakotah Keys (Oregon)
7. Terry Prentice (unattached)
8. Gray Horn (unattached)
9. Wesley Bray (unattached)
10. Miller Moss (unattached)

Edit: Gray Horn was shown on the formchart in red, but to my knowledge, does not have an A or B, so he is now in black. Same for Wesley Bray.

Behind Eaton I would put Nixon ahead of Taiwo for three reasons:
1) His score from Gotizs (8136) in more impressive than Taiwo's score in Eugene (8239) because of the poor comditions in Gotizs
2) He seems to be more consistent than Taiwo that often has mini-disasters in the decathlon (e.g. DT in the NCAA, PV in the winter)
3) Taiwo is probably more tired after his efforts in Eugene
Hope both of them will make the team
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:06 am

Eaton could have a three F event and then work hard to make top 3 eligible. It would be tougher for him if he lost the LJ or even PV or HJ, but losing one of the throws it would be feasible.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby gktrack » Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:54 pm

olorin wrote:Behind Eaton I would put Nixon ahead of Taiwo for three reasons:
1) His score from Gotizs (8136) in more impressive than Taiwo's score in Eugene (8239) because of the poor comditions in Gotizs
2) He seems to be more consistent than Taiwo that often has mini-disasters in the decathlon (e.g. DT in the NCAA, PV in the winter)
3) Taiwo is probably more tired after his efforts in Eugene
Hope both of them will make the team


I agree 100%... and being consistent here and beating the competition (Taiwo, Murphy, etc., excl. Eaton) is most important, even if it's not and "A"... and would give Nixon the "B" in a A-A-B scenario... and I believe he still goes even if someone were to score an A after this meet, which I highly doubt.

Add: Interesting to note, Curtis Beach is at the trials, competing in the LJ, coming in with his 7.88m (25-10.25) jump, and his NCAA jump of 7.81m (25-7.25). B standard there is 8.10m.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby gktrack » Fri Jun 21, 2013 12:30 am

Here's entry score, lifetime PR and sum of in-deca PR's (w/ in-deca PR's listed below).
Notes:
1) adding Eaton's 2013 out-of-deca PR's of SP 15.40, 400 45.64 and JT 66.64 would sum 9485. (do we match olorin?)
2) PR's and therefore sum of PR's for Harlan and Arnold are only for last 2-3 years (for purposes of following this meet on a relative basis?)
3) If winds are anything like they were for sprints and jumps on Thursday (+2 to +4+ mps), that could present a problem for getting a legal WC A/B mark, if needed (depending on which direction they run the 100/110H)?

Code: Select all
Name......   Entry  PR..   SumPR
100..   LJ.   SP..   HJ.   400..   110H.   DT..   PV.   JT..   1500...
Eaton.....   9039   9039   9367
10.19   823   1466   211   45.68   13.34   4736   530   6196   4:18.94
Hardee....   8671   8790   9218
10.28   788   1594   208   47.75   13.54   5268   530   6899   4:40.94
Taiwo.....   8239   8239   8564
10.84   751   1418   225   48.11   14.16   4180   500   5371   4:16.34
Moss......   7712   7996   8462
10.58   734   1485   204   47.15   13.81   4476   500   5322   4:31.90
Nixon.....   8136   8136   8420
10.89   753   1427   217   48.37   14.51   4170   480   6012   4:22.36
Horn......   7954   7954   8315
10.71   765   1388   207   49.42   14.25   4182   500   5631   4:29.19
Murphy....   8086   8086   8308
10.47   753   1391   190   48.01   14.34   4546   495   5286   4:21.01
Keys......   8001   8001   8156
10.94   731   1328   209   50.15   14.60   3791   490   6681   4:25.76
Arnold....   7689   7840   8129
10.93   678   1445   196   48.68   14.29   4584   515   6047   4:31.04
Harlan....   7715   8011   8122
11.17   680   1651   205   50.78   14.43   4637   500   6510   4:31.04
Gooris....   7780   7780   8095
11.31   705   1436   201   50.16   14.79   4265   540   5752   4:25.19
Bray......   7932   7932   8050
10.94   743   1407   193   49.25   14.71   4175   480   6170   4:30.88
Bahner....   7847   7847   8036
10.63   755   1347   195   49.05   15.35   4896   460   5709   4:38.45
Prentice..   7813   7813   7962
10.66   766   1421   206   49.83   14.26   3891   450   5041   4:38.56
Giovannoni   7726   7726   7899
11.05   713   1429   200   49.53   14.43   4304   500   4970   4:40.33
Duer......   7705   7705   7898
11.23   716   1375   203   50.30   15.06   4398   495   5767   4:36.06
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Re: USA Multis

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 2:24 am

Decathlon isn't pole vault, where Bukka had the possibility to cash in by 1cm steps.
Decathlon is much less predictable and though Eaton at age 25 still appears to be young and healthy the world record window is not endless.
Since Toomey in 1969, none of the 12 decathlon world records (I did not count Bruce Jenner hand timed mark) within the recent 44 years has been achieved by an athlete older than 27 years (Jenner, Sebrle).
Let's not forget that international championships, due to their time schedule aren't the perfect stage for a world record (even though many athletes make up for this dissadvantage with higher motivation and timing). Dvorak has the "championship lead" with "just" 8902 pts. The top 3 decathlons of all time (Dvorak, Sebrle, Eaton) have been accomplished outside such championships. This leaves even less remaining WR opportunities.

Of course Eaton might play it safe, but if a record is possible after day one he'd definitely go for it.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:33 am

On Eaton "going for it:"

Marra has said more than once that he did not start thinking WR at Eugene last year until Eaton went so high in the PV. I presume that's the way he and Eaton will approach this meet: Get started well, see what happens.

Also note this quote from a recent interview with Marra (posted on decathlon2000):

"I remember in 1997 in Götzis when I was training Brian Brophy. He was really doing good in the pole vault and jumped 4.80. But he felt something in the upper part of his leg. I said don’t jump higher, it’s a good jump (Brophy’s pb was 4.95). Continue you’re decathlon, throw a good javelin and run you’re 1.5 K and you’ll have a good decathlon. He insisted to try 4.90. He tried and he blew the whole thing. The rest of the year he had to revalidate, the whole year was gone and he could only start again the next year."

Surely Marra will be sensitive to any tweaks Eaton might feel. He will not be reluctant to tell him to back off if there is a risk of injury.

One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.

On the other hand, I agree with eiluke: WRs aren't easy, even for Eaton. The DT is the key event here, I believe. He's been working on it a lot this year. He also knows he has a much higher upside than last year in the 8th event, the PV. If the WR is in sight after the DT, and wind in the earlier events is allowable, and there's no injury concern, he'll go for it.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:40 am

(Accidentally posted this in the USA Multis thread, so re-posted here)

On Eaton "going for it:"

Marra has said more than once that he did not start thinking WR at Eugene last year until Eaton went so high in the PV. I presume that's the way he and Eaton will approach this meet: Get started well, see what happens.

Also note this quote from a recent interview with Marra (posted on decathlon2000):

"I remember in 1997 in Götzis when I was training Brian Brophy. He was really doing good in the pole vault and jumped 4.80. But he felt something in the upper part of his leg. I said don’t jump higher, it’s a good jump (Brophy’s pb was 4.95). Continue you’re decathlon, throw a good javelin and run you’re 1.5 K and you’ll have a good decathlon. He insisted to try 4.90. He tried and he blew the whole thing. The rest of the year he had to revalidate, the whole year was gone and he could only start again the next year."

Surely Marra will be sensitive to any tweaks Eaton might feel. He will not be reluctant to tell him to back off if there is a risk of injury.

One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.

On the other hand, I agree with eiluke: WRs aren't easy, even for Eaton. The DT is the key event here, I believe. He's been working on it a lot this year. He also knows he has a much higher upside than last year in the 8th event, the PV. If the WR is in sight after the DT, and wind in the earlier events is allowable, and there's no injury concern, he'll go for it.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby norunner » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:43 am

DecFan wrote:One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.
Looking at the results of day 1 it seems to me the only problem they may face is too much wind in the opposite direction. All the track events i checked had headwind up to almost -6m/s.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 3:46 am

norunner wrote:
DecFan wrote:One consideration no one has yet stated: Too much wind in the 100 and LJ could make it unlikely for a record to be ratified. So high winds in the first two events could make all WR talk moot.
Looking at the results of day 1 it seems to me the only problem they may face is too much wind in the opposite direction. All the track events i checked had headwind up to almost -6m/s.


Look at the heptahlon 100h (they ran the opposite direction). And look at the TJ.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby norunner » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:02 am

DecFan wrote:Look at the heptahlon 100h (they ran the opposite direction). And look at the TJ.
Did they do that on purpose to avoid the headwind? And i know about the TJ, but even a strong tailwind for the long jump isn't going to do much good if you first have to battle against -3-6m/s over 100m. If anything too much tailwind during LJ may hurt because it screws up the approach.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby eiluke » Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:18 am

"play it safe" or world record, I just out of fun collected Eaton's best individual results to make a prediction, of what to expect from Eaton, if he's on an average day.
I did not include wind assisted (>2,0 m/s) marks and 2nd best attempts in any competition.
If Eaton in every event just puts up his 8th best personal mark:
10.37
7.85
14.56
2.05
46.74
13.76
45.40
5.10
56.19
4:28.93
8767 pts would be the outcome.
Discus is a questionmark, the other expectations shouldn't be much of a problem for him, if healthy.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby olorin » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:06 am

Weather is hot and windy.
Hope it will not affect the results too much.
Happy posting everyone and hope that they will broadcast the competition.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:29 am

Here's a set of projections, before things get underway. I expect Eaton to be a little lower than that, and Nixon to be higher.

Ashton Eaton 9094
Gunnar Nixon 8107
Jeremy Taiwo 8104
Dakotah Keys 7931
Isaac Murphy 7920
Jon Ryan Harlan 7886
Gray Horn 7871
Jake Arnold 7778
Austin Bahner 7664
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Re: USA Multis

Postby bruce3404 » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:42 am

Late tweet last night indicated they were going to run the sprints in the direction of the wind for the rest of the meet and, as noted, the multi events were run that way yesterday.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby booond » Fri Jun 21, 2013 5:57 am

Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:09 am

booond wrote:Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?


Regrettably, unless Taiwo and Nixon disappoint, I don't see anyone with a real chance to do so, beyond Isaac Murphy (who has the B from the NCAA champs). Perhaps Ryan Harlan could surprise, but I think it's more a matter of Taiwo and Nixon avoiding injury and catastrophe - they have more talent and upside.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Dave » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:13 am

So, if Nixon gets third with less than 8200, does he still make the team?
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:17 am

booond wrote:Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?


Grey Horn is a possibility. PRs sum over 8300, but he has never put together 10 good events in one decathlon. JT is the biggest question mark for him. His PR is over 56m, but in his two decathlons this spring he threw around 48 and 45. If he can go 10.9 7.5 13.7 2.05 in the first four events, he'll be in contention.

Miller Moss is a more likely possibility. PRs sum to 8462. Hasn't competed much in the last two years with injuries, but had an 8000+ score going this spring before a disastrous JT, and didn't run the 1500. Look today particularly at his HJ - 2.04 PR, but only jumped 1.93 in his spring decathlon.

Then there's Isaac Murphy. PRs sum just over 8300, and he seems a bit more consistent than Horn or Moss. Had an outstanding NCAA meet to score 8086 and take 4th, though compared to PRs did relatively poorly in the 1500 there. The first two events today will be telling for him: If he can go under 10.6 and over 7.4, he'll be in great position.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 6:21 am

Dave wrote:So, if Nixon gets third with less than 8200, does he still make the team?


Yes. In addition to Hardee, the US can send two A qualifiers and one B qualifier. A is 8200, B is 8000.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:04 am

Horn with a very fine (for him) 10.76 in the 100.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:08 am

Nixon with a PR 10.80. He looked very good.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Dave » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:10 am

Eaton 10.48. Not seeing a WR here, but who knows.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby DecFan » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:11 am

My projections (not predictions) after 1 event (leaving Eaton out . . .)

Nixon 8224
Taiwo 8211
Murphy 8034
Moss 8025
Keys 7930
Horn 7885
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby booond » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:13 am

DecFan wrote:
booond wrote:Barring an injury, who has a chance to wedge themselves into the top-3 ahead of either Nixon or Taiwo?


Grey Horn is a possibility. PRs sum over 8300, but he has never put together 10 good events in one decathlon. JT is the biggest question mark for him. His PR is over 56m, but in his two decathlons this spring he threw around 48 and 45. If he can go 10.9 7.5 13.7 2.05 in the first four events, he'll be in contention.

Miller Moss is a more likely possibility. PRs sum to 8462. Hasn't competed much in the last two years with injuries, but had an 8000+ score going this spring before a disastrous JT, and didn't run the 1500. Look today particularly at his HJ - 2.04 PR, but only jumped 1.93 in his spring decathlon.

Then there's Isaac Murphy. PRs sum just over 8300, and he seems a bit more consistent than Horn or Moss. Had an outstanding NCAA meet to score 8086 and take 4th, though compared to PRs did relatively poorly in the 1500 there. The first two events today will be telling for him: If he can go under 10.6 and over 7.4, he'll be in great position.


Thanks.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby TimRoy » Fri Jun 21, 2013 7:16 am

And a similar set of projections, for contrast:

Ashton Eaton 9051
Gunnar Nixon 8141
Jeremy Taiwo 8086
Isaac Murphy 7931
Gray Horn 7925
Miller Moss 7919
Dakotah Keys 7914
Jon Ryan Harlan 7863
Jake Arnold 7774

If we take the 100m performance as indicative of fitness, then Nixon and Horn look particularly sharp (so we can revise expectations upwards), and Eaton seems off, which could be simply a conservative approach. But WR, that projection above notwithstanding, seems unlikely, on the strength of the first event.
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Re: USATF 2013 - mDec

Postby Dave » Fri Jun 21, 2013 8:00 am

TimRoy wrote:And a similar set of projections, for contrast:

Ashton Eaton 9051
Gunnar Nixon 8141
Jeremy Taiwo 8086
Isaac Murphy 7931
Gray Horn 7925
Miller Moss 7919
Dakotah Keys 7914
Jon Ryan Harlan 7863
Jake Arnold 7774

If we take the 100m performance as indicative of fitness, then Nixon and Horn look particularly sharp (so we can revise expectations upwards), and Eaton seems off, which could be simply a conservative approach. But WR, that projection above notwithstanding, seems unlikely, on the strength of the first event.


Eaton's first jump is pretty lackluster(for him) with 7.59. The wind is a slight tail wind so I wonder if something else is holding him back.
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