¶USATF Dec: Ashton Eaton 8291


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Re: USA Multis

Postby unclezadok » Mon May 06, 2013 5:58 am

In the 1976 Olympic pentathlon the top 3 finishers had scores of 4745, 4745, 4740. According to The Complete Book of the Olympics, by Wallechinsky and Loucky, Siegrin Sigl won gold over Christine Laser on the basis of higher head-to-head finishes.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby aaronk » Mon May 06, 2013 9:13 am

The NCAA Dec is promising to be maybe the best....or at least the most competitive....event of the meet.
Never before have there been two guys at 8200+.....followed by 2 more at 8000+, then another at 7998, and 2 or 3 more at 7800+.
And who knows how many more will reach those levels in the next week or two!
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 06, 2013 9:44 am

With Cato out and some questions about Taiwo, it is not so good at the top as it might be. It is exciting with the emergence of so many young guys and the return of Taiwo. It is also made more interesting with a diversity across athletes in terms of their strong events.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Fortius19 » Mon May 06, 2013 4:02 pm

26mi235 wrote:He is a German who looks to have had one year off out of high school, where they graduate a year older than the US. Thus, about a junior or red-shirt sophomore by US standards.


Thanks for that! (how do you guys find out this stuff? :) )


Anyone know if AE is going to do a full Deca at Nats? The recent formchart suggests that he won't want to do a LJ the day after the Deca ends. If he's doing Gotzis and Worlds, will he want to do a full third one this year?

sorry if this has already been covered.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Mon May 06, 2013 5:23 pm

Fortius19 wrote:Anyone know if AE is going to do a full Deca at Nats? The recent formchart suggests that he won't want to do a LJ the day after the Deca ends. If he's doing Gotzis and Worlds, will he want to do a full third one this year?

sorry if this has already been covered.

I was under the assumption that Eaton has to compete at the US Champs. What if 3 other guys (other than wild-card Hardee) have/get their A and finish ahead of Eaton, he wouldn't go, right? Maybe someone who fully understands all the A/B stuff could simplify the situation here...
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Mon May 06, 2013 6:05 pm

gktrack wrote:
Fortius19 wrote:Anyone know if AE is going to do a full Deca at Nats? The recent formchart suggests that he won't want to do a LJ the day after the Deca ends. If he's doing Gotzis and Worlds, will he want to do a full third one this year?

sorry if this has already been covered.

I was under the assumption that Eaton has to compete at the US Champs. What if 3 other guys (other than wild-card Hardee) have/get their A and finish ahead of Eaton, he wouldn't go, right? Maybe someone who fully understands all the A/B stuff could simplify the situation here...

There is no doubt that Eaton is planning to compete in the US national. Since this is the WC you can send AAB (unlike the Olympics). So if two Americans beside Hardee (and Eaton himself) will score above 8200 and an additional athlete will score above 8000 than Eaton will stay at home.

With Lazas, Nixon, Beach, Taiwo, Moss, Murphy, Horn, Scantling and now Keys all possibilities for the "A" Eaton will be crazy to gamble that only one of them will reach the standard. To illustrate, even if one estimate that each of them have a probability of 10% to get the "A" there is more than 20% probability that Eaton will stay home. If you increase the probability to 20% for each athlete (more realistic in my opinion) then the probability that Eaton will stay home is more than 50%. To make things worse for Eaton in the WC Athletes can chase the mark after the national.

Long story short - unless injured, Eaton will compete in the national.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Mon May 06, 2013 6:19 pm

26mi235 wrote:With Cato out and some questions about Taiwo, it is not so good at the top as it might be. It is exciting with the emergence of so many young guys and the return of Taiwo. It is also made more interesting with a diversity across athletes in terms of their strong events.

Taiwo is probably the biggest question mark (beside Clay). So far this season he is performing very well in individual events but doesn't seem to be able (so far) to bring it all together in the decathlon. In eight of the ten events Taiwo set a PB or is very close to his PB this year (only the 110h and the JT still lagging) . The results of Pac12 illustrate this as he score a PB in the decathlon by more than 250 points and yet did not break any individual PB (I'm quite sure that this is unique - maybe dacfan can verify).
So the big question - is a score of 8000 when you are below par in many events is a good signal as there is a lot of room for improvement or a bad signal as you perform below par.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 06, 2013 6:32 pm

gktrack wrote:
Fortius19 wrote:Anyone know if AE is going to do a full Deca at Nats? The recent formchart suggests that he won't want to do a LJ the day after the Deca ends. If he's doing Gotzis and Worlds, will he want to do a full third one this year?

sorry if this has already been covered.

I was under the assumption that Eaton has to compete at the US Champs. What if 3 other guys (other than wild-card Hardee) have/get their A and finish ahead of Eaton, he wouldn't go, right? Maybe someone who fully understands all the A/B stuff could simplify the situation here...


Even one "B" and two "A"s would keep Eaton at home if they all want to go (plus Hardee)
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 06, 2013 6:35 pm

Fortius19 wrote:
26mi235 wrote:He is a German who looks to have had one year off out of high school, where they graduate a year older than the US. Thus, about a junior or red-shirt sophomore by US standards.


Thanks for that! (how do you guys find out this stuff? :) )


I know this stuff because there are posters on this board like olorin (and several others) that have made those comments on this board recently. There are some really well-informed posters on this board, and in particular there are more than a couple that really pay a lot of attention to the multi events :!: , for which I am grateful :D .
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Mon May 06, 2013 6:37 pm

thanks for A/B clarification(s)... seems like there's a lot more decathletes than past US champs, is there a max # of competitors and/or qualifying standard for the US Champs?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 06, 2013 8:01 pm

The thing that most confuses the issue is the different treatment in the OGs and WCs -- due to different incentives (the IOC wants to diminish the overly large number of competitors at the Games without doing the hard work cutting cutting the 'made for TV' "non-traditional" sports.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Mon May 06, 2013 8:51 pm

gktrack wrote:thanks for A/B clarification(s)... seems like there's a lot more decathletes than past US champs, is there a max # of competitors and/or qualifying standard for the US Champs?

I have to admit that I don't really know. But from looking in the internet these are the qualifying standard for the nationals:
http://www.usatf.org/Events---Calendar/ ... fying.aspx
I assume that the "A" standard is automatic qualification and the "B" is place dependant. (GH??)
In the decathlon the "A" standard is 7850. To date there are 12 athletes that met this standard. They typically try to limit the number of athletes to 16 but last year there were 19 athletes (and 17 in 2011) so I don't think that this is a huge concern.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 06, 2013 9:04 pm

There are A and B standards for the WCs. The national body can impose their own standards for entry into the Trials; generally these are lower than the WC values, considerably in some weaker events.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Mon May 06, 2013 9:48 pm

26mi235 wrote:There are A and B standards for the WCs. The national body can impose their own standards for entry into the Trials; generally these are lower than the WC values, considerably in some weaker events.

These are also A and B for the national (which are of course lower than the WC standard). The question is whether indeed A is automatic qualifier and B is place dependant?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 06, 2013 10:23 pm

I think Bs fill the field, and acceptance is not guaranteed. I am not at all certain that Bs are 'strongly ordered' in that they may take some with lower qualifying times if they see fit -- go to LetsRun for typical gnashing of teeth on this one.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Fortius19 » Tue May 07, 2013 9:20 am

Thanks for all the explanations.

I guess I thought AE could just show up and LJ only and be on the Deca team, but I guess that's only the guy with the bye. :oops:
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Re: USA Multis

Postby norunner » Tue May 07, 2013 10:55 am

Just read that Hardee, Nixon and Arnold will be in Götzis, that makes it four americans?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Tue May 07, 2013 11:23 am

norunner wrote:Just read that Hardee, Nixon and Arnold will be in Götzis, that makes it four americans?

Thanks - I saw the same on decathlon 2000. Curious if Mike Morrison might compete as well, as he trained in Germany this past winter, if not, I assume he needs a qualifying mark for US Champs after not competing last year? Nothing up on the Gotzis website yet.
http://www.meeting-goetzis.at/en/meeting-2013.htm
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 12:32 am

SEC's coming up today: Lazas, Scantling, Uibo may be going at it...
you can follow results here...
http://branchsportstech.com/2013_Meets/outdoor/05-09-SEC/Multi.htm
they may be showing live video here (not sure if it's free?)...
http://www.mutigers.com/allaccess/?media=386695
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Thu May 09, 2013 12:47 am

gktrack wrote:SEC's coming up today: Lazas, Scantling, Uibo may be going at it...
you can follow results here...
http://branchsportstech.com/2013_Meets/outdoor/05-09-SEC/Multi.htm
they may be showing live video here...
http://www.mutigers.com/allaccess/?media=386695

And Ziemek and Szmanda probably (26mi235?) competing in the Top Ten in Ohio.
Is this is the last week of heavy competitions before the NCAA finals?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 1:06 am

olorin wrote:And Ziemek and Szmanda probably (26mi235?) competing in the Top Ten in Ohio.
Is this is the last week of heavy competitions before the NCAA finals?

Haven't seen specific link to Big 10 yet, they start a day later.
There's NCAA regionals in two weeks, but multis skip to NCAA finals in four weeks.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Bruce Kritzler » Thu May 09, 2013 1:39 pm

gktrack wrote:SEC's coming up today: Lazas, Scantling, Uibo may be going at it...
you can follow results here...
http://branchsportstech.com/2013_Meets/outdoor/05-09-SEC/Multi.htm
they may be showing live video here (not sure if it's free?)...
http://www.mutigers.com/allaccess/?media=386695


Lazas did one two weeks ago in the rain, so thinking he may just do individual events here?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 09, 2013 2:26 pm

Ziemek (and Foss, FR) are doing the Deca, while Dorcas Akinniyi (who just was awarded UW's (all-sport) Student-Athlete of the Year award for the second straight year) is doing the Hept.

Latham will do the 100h, LJ and Jav for the Big Ten meet. She ran a 13.49 100h last week; at NCAAs she could pick up quite a few points with the 100h, 6m LJ and 43m Jav; these will help her with only a 1.70 HJ, 2:20 800 and 12.5m SP and a 200 that has ranged from a min of 24.82 to a max of 25.04 (tight range across Hepts).
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Marlow » Thu May 09, 2013 2:51 pm

Bruce Kritzler wrote:Lazas did one two weeks ago in the rain, so thinking he may just do individual events here?

Nah - they're getting AFTER it!

1 Kevin Lazas JR Arkansas 2544 - 10.93 7.39m (24-3) 14.52m (47-7
2 Maicel Uibo FR Georgia 2499 - 11.0 27.53m (24-8) 13.56m (44-6 )
3 Garrett Scantling SO Georgia 2473 - 10.91 7.04m (23-1) 4.66m (48-1)
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Re: USA Multis

Postby aaronk » Thu May 09, 2013 3:53 pm

The SEC Hept is done for the day.
Don't have all the background data you Dec freaks have ( :D ), but here's the basic A-B-C's:

Makeba Alcide: 13.60....1.88.....12.42......24.31...............3756
Erica Bougard: 13.40....1.76.....10.70......23.93...............3555
Lorraine Graham:13.63..1.64.....12.85......24.44...............3477

From my viewpoint, it looks like Alcide is on to a solid 6000+ score, perhaps 100 or 200 points over!
And Bougard is WAY ahead of her 5270 pace from 2011.
(That's the only mark I have available, from my 2012 FAST Annual!)
Here's the marks, side by side:

Bougard (2011): 14.55.....1.67......8.95.....24.48
Bougard (2013): 13.40.....1.76.....10.70....23.93
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 4:53 pm

SEC Deca: yes, they are going after it - a good competition thus far. After 5, Lazas and Scantling performing relatively well. Lazas consistently close to PR levels in first 4 events, but slipped badly in the 400, running 2 secs. slower than his PR... currently at 4030 relative to his PR sum of 4225. Scantling PR'ed in the SP and ran a great PR in 400, but was a tad off in the HJ totaling 4156 after 5, pretty close to his previous sum of PR's of 4220. Keep it up guys...

Bougard in the hep had a PR in the 200 and .01 off her PR in the hurdles... her first day total of 3555 is about 70 off previous sum of PR's pace. Near PR's the second day would put her in the 5900 point range.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby DecFan » Thu May 09, 2013 5:31 pm

Where they stand at SEC:
Scantling 4156 10.91 7.04 14.66 2.03 49.20
Uibo 4117 11.02 7.53 13.56 2.03 50.61
Lazas 4030 10.93 7.39 14.52 1.97 52.33

Scantling is 64 points down on the previous sum of his first day PRs (at least as far as I have them recorded). Should he be able to achieve that same relative score on day 2, he'll score 8059.

Uibo is 164 points down on the previous sum of his first day PRs (73 in LJ, 94 in HJ). If he is once again 164 points down on PRs on day 2, he'll end up at 7998.

Lazas is 195 pts down on the previous sum of his first day PRs (biggest loss: 87 in the 400). Same calculation as above gives him 7884.

DT is Uibo's big strength relative to the other two. He should beat them by 110+ pts in that event.

PV is Lazas' big strength. He should beat the other two by close to 100 pts.

With his new JT PR, Scantling should beat the other two by 60+ points in that event.

Scantling is far inferior in the 1500. He needs a lead of 140+ points going in to the 1500 in order to have a shot at winning.

DT is a key event for Scantling. In his last decathlon, he had a really poor DT that kept him from having a huge decathlon PR.

Good competition. Anything could happen.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Marlow » Thu May 09, 2013 5:37 pm

DecFan wrote:Where they stand at SEC:
Scantling 4156 10.91 7.04 14.66 2.03 49.20
Uibo 4117 11.02 7.53 13.56 2.03 50.61
Lazas 4030 10.93 7.39 14.52 1.97 52.33
Scantling is 64 points down on the previous sum of his first day PRs (at least as far as I have them recorded). Should he be able to achieve that same relative score on day 2, he'll score 8059.
Uibo is 164 points down on the previous sum of his first day PRs (73 in LJ, 94 in HJ). If he is once again 164 points down on PRs on day 2, he'll end up at 7998.
Lazas is 195 pts down on the previous sum of his first day PRs (biggest loss: 87 in the 400). Same calculation as above gives him 7884.
DT is Uibo's big strength relative to the other two. He should beat them by 110+ pts in that event.
PV is Lazas' big strength. He should beat the other two by close to 100 pts.
With his new JT PR, Scantling should beat the other two by 60+ points in that event.
Scantling is far inferior in the 1500. He needs a lead of 140+ points going in to the 1500 in order to have a shot at winning.
DT is a key event for Scantling. In his last decathlon, he had a really poor DT that kept him from having a huge decathlon PR.
Good competition. Anything could happen.

Superb summary. As usual, you substantially increase my enjoyment of the event in progress!!
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 5:48 pm

DecFan wrote:Scantling is far inferior in the 1500. He needs a lead of 140+ points going in to the 1500 in order to have a shot at winning.

Based on a respectable 1000m indoors (2:47), and push comes to shove, don't you guys think Scantling has a lot more in him than his 4:55 1500 PR suggests? How many 1500's has he run when something was on the line?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby Marlow » Thu May 09, 2013 5:55 pm

gktrack wrote:
DecFan wrote:Scantling is far inferior in the 1500. He needs a lead of 140+ points going in to the 1500 in order to have a shot at winning.

Based on a respectable 1000m indoors (2:47), and push comes to shove, don't you guys think Scantling has a lot more in him than his 4:55 1500 PR suggests? How many 1500's has he run when something was on the line?

Good point. He's an O'Brien clone in that regard. Hates the event and 5:00 is often 'good enough' but If he had to, he could gut out a 4:45, I bet. In HS I couldn't get him to run any farther than a TJ approach.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 09, 2013 5:58 pm

He is pretty quick in the 100 and even in the 400 (49), so the 2:47 may be more based on speed that does not carry over as well to the 1500. Also, the 1000 is the seventh event and the 1500 is the tenth event.

Also, is it a 'real' 2:47 or a mark that is translated to a 2:47 from a flat 200 track.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby ptn » Thu May 09, 2013 6:00 pm

DecFan wrote:Uibo is 164 points down on the previous sum of his first day PRs

34 points imo.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 7:03 pm

ptn wrote:
DecFan wrote:Uibo is 164 points down on the previous sum of his first day PRs

34 points imo.

yes, 34 off his first day PR total of 4151, but DecFan was referring to 164 difference relative to the sum of his PR's for the first 5 events... just two different ways of looking at it.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Thu May 09, 2013 8:03 pm

Bruce Kritzler wrote:Lazas did one two weeks ago in the rain, so thinking he may just do individual events here?

I was surprised to see Lazas name in the start list. I am even more surprised that he is going for the full decathlon. However, he is not pushing himself to the limit. He tried only two jumps in the LJ. He skipped many heights in the HJ including 2.00m (his PB is 1.99 outdoor and 2.01 indoor) and had a pedestrian 400 (two second above his PB).
So either he is conserving (smart) or slightly injured. Hope he will be in top form come the NCAA and the trials.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Thu May 09, 2013 8:11 pm

GOING TO DES MOINES? - sorry to hijack this thread to something more personal (although related to decathlon). I was wondering if any of the other Dec freaks (as aaronk named us) is going to the US trials. There is now 99% chance that I will be there and it will be fun to watch with someone that get excited by Scanting, Lazas, Taiwo, Ziemek and company.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 09, 2013 9:20 pm

I think that my presence is required elsewhere that week. :?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 10:19 pm

olorin wrote:GOING TO DES MOINES?

I have not made plans yet either way, but if I'm there, I'll let you know so I can further my education.
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Re: USA Multis

Postby gktrack » Thu May 09, 2013 11:18 pm

olorin wrote:
Bruce Kritzler wrote:Lazas did one two weeks ago in the rain, so thinking he may just do individual events here?

I was surprised to see Lazas name in the start list. I am even more surprised that he is going for the full decathlon. However, he is not pushing himself to the limit. He tried only two jumps in the LJ. He skipped many heights in the HJ including 2.00m (his PB is 1.99 outdoor and 2.01 indoor) and had a pedestrian 400 (two second above his PB).
So either he is conserving (smart) or slightly injured. Hope he will be in top form come the NCAA and the trials.

I guess I look at it a bit differently. As of May 6, only 3 guys have a B qualifier (other than wild-card Hardee and Eaton)... I. Murphy 8067, C. Beach 8011, and D. Keys 8001. At some point, and not waiting to the last minute, wouldn't it take some of the stress off the potential 3/4 WC slot guys knowing they at least have a B standard going into the Nationals? If they don't do it here, that only leaves the NCAA's and Nationals, added stress in both, not considering weather, etc. And then there's the non-NCAA guys like Arnold and Bray who have competed this year, had little/no shot at 8000 after 8 or 9 events, and predictably didn't run the 1500. To add to the complexity, they can chase the standard after the Nationals this year, right?
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Fri May 10, 2013 12:06 am

gktrack wrote:
Bruce Kritzler wrote:Lazas did one two weeks ago in the rain, so thinking he may just do individual events here?


I guess I look at it a bit differently. As of May 6, only 3 guys have a B qualifier (other than wild-card Hardee and Eaton)... I. Murphy 8067, C. Beach 8011, and D. Keys 8001. At some point, and not waiting to the last minute, wouldn't it take some of the stress off the potential 3/4 WC slot guys knowing they at least have a B standard going into the Nationals? If they don't do it here, that only leaves the NCAA's and Nationals, added stress in both, not considering weather, etc. And then there's the non-NCAA guys like Arnold and Bray who have competed this year, had little/no shot at 8000 after 8 or 9 events, and predictably didn't run the 1500. To add to the complexity, they can chase the standard after the Nationals this year, right?

I think that it is a smart policy to try to get the "A" before the trials. In that respect Nixon's decision to compete in Gotizs is smart and I think that Moss and the other non-NCAA decathletes should follow suit. As you mention having the qualifying mark is likely to reduce the pressure during the trials.

However, Lazas competing for "B" does not seems like a good policy to me. First, the chances that Lazas will not get the "B" in two target competitions seems to me quite remote (he will probably need at least a B in order to medal in the NCAA). Further, the chances that the third place in the US trials will not score more than 8000 points are not very big. On the down side Lazas is facing a higher probability of an injury (burning out) with four decathlons in less than three months.

I think that Lazas is competing in the decathlon but his main focus is improvement in specific events. In that respect the 110h is a place when Lazas can do with a large improvement as his current PB is 15.12 and most of his competitors have a PB of 14.0-14.5. (a loss of ~100 points).
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Re: USA Multis

Postby olorin » Fri May 10, 2013 3:42 am

olorin wrote:
gktrack wrote:
Bruce Kritzler wrote:Lazas did one two weeks ago in the rain, so thinking he may just do individual events here?

I think that the simpler explanation (than my previous one and gktrack) is that Lazas scored of 7,537 may not be enough to qualify to the NCAA. Right now he is ranked only 12 and there are many competitions that athletes will chase the qualification. In 2012 7,508 needed to qualify and this year the level improved a lot. So it is a possible that Lazas is competing to achieve a mark of ~7,700 in order to ensure qualification.
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