Oxy (2013) w-1.500m: 12 under 4.10, Cain HSR


Main message board: for the discussion of topical track & field items only.

Oxy (2013) w-1.500m: 12 under 4.10, Cain HSR

Postby EPelle » Thu May 16, 2013 12:37 pm

Race time: 20.05 PST
Watch live here

MR: 4.05,92 Shannon Rowbury Nike 2012
Contestants:

Cat Beck—CPTC New Balance
Sarah Brown—New Balance
Stephanie Brown—Arkansas
Zoe Buckman—Nike
Mary Cain—Unattached
Laura Carlyle—Bowerman Athletic Cl
Jamie Cheever—Brooks/Team USA MN
Rachel Cliff—Vancouver Thunderbir
Emma Coburn—Colorado
Kim Conley—New Balance/SRA
Bridget Franek—Nike/OTC Elite
Kerri Gallagher—Pacers New Balance
Cristina Guevara—MEXICO
Lauren Hagans—ASICS
Susan Kuijken—Nike
Violah Lagat—Adidas
Julia Lucas—Nike/OTC Elite
Katie Mackey—Brooks Beast
Pilar McShine—Trinidad & Tobago
Dana Mecke—San Antonio Elite
Ashley Miller—Asics
Jessica O'Connell—University of Calgar
Aisha Praught—Nike/OTC Elite
Melissa Salerno—New Balance
Nicole Schappert—Saucony
Nicole Sifuentes—Saucony
Jemma Simpson—Nike/OTC Elite
Hilary Stellingwerff—Speed River/New Bala
Danielle Tauro—NJNYTC
Callie Thomas—Unattached
Renee Tomlin—Nike/NJNYTC
Amy Van Alstine—adidas-McMillan Elit
Kate Van Buskirk—Athletics Toronto/Br
Heather Wilson NJNYTC
Last edited by EPelle on Sat May 18, 2013 5:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
EPelle
 
Posts: 21442
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby aaronk » Thu May 16, 2013 1:06 pm

The pacer for the race with Mary Cain will take it out in 2:10.0!
At the same pace through to the finish, that's sub-4:04.0 pace for 1500!!

Right now, upon hearing this, I don't give a flying donut's worth of crap if people think I'm "obsessed" or acting "creepy" about Cain.....

I AM THRILLED!!!!!

And I guarantee you, she will be right in the thick of it!
There is no way, barring disaster (a fall, a broken leg, etc), that she will finish last.....or even out of the top 5!!

I predict she WILL get the "A" standard.
As will at least 1 or 2 others.

There, I said it!!

Now on to the other runners, and the other races!! :D
aaronk
 
Posts: 3333
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby aaronk » Thu May 16, 2013 1:31 pm

Other than Cain, I'll be most interested to see what the 3 SC specialists do over 1500.

Of the 3, I think Emma Coburn has the fastest 1500 PR, a 4:09.
Then I guess would come Bridget Franek and Jamie Cheever, with the latter being the most unknown quantity.

I wonder if Coburn might try for the WC in the 1500....if she gets an "A" here.
aaronk
 
Posts: 3333
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 16, 2013 1:44 pm

Coburn is way down the US chart in the 1500 while having only one or two challengers in the SC she has the AL one of her to biggest challengers is a training mate.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby EPelle » Fri May 17, 2013 11:04 am

2013 USA top-5 leaders: 4.03,35 Jenny Simpson | 4.04,86 Brenda Martinez | 4.05,41 Gabriele Anderson | 4.06,40 Treniere Moser | 4.08,24 Kate Grace

Standards:

A: 4.05,50 | B: 4.09,00
EPelle
 
Posts: 21442
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby lovetorun » Fri May 17, 2013 2:10 pm

aaronk...I think Mary Cain is still steadily improving...but the A standard is not realistic for her yet. I think, w/ the right pace though, she could do 4:07-8. Having said that, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.
lovetorun
 
Posts: 1204
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 11:48 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby aaronk » Fri May 17, 2013 3:32 pm

lovetorun wrote:aaronk...I think Mary Cain is still steadily improving...but the A standard is not realistic for her yet. I think, w/ the right pace though, she could do 4:07-8. Having said that, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.


I don't want to get into a drawn-out Cain discussion here......been there, done that! :D .....but I will say that my hopes for Cain tonight are based on a couple of factors:

1. Before the Millrose Games, Salazar said she was in "4:25 shape" (for the mile). She ran 4:28.25, and was timed enroute at 1500 in 4:11.72. IF she had run 4:25, she probably would've been at about 4:08 at 1500. Thus, based on Salazar's observation, you could say Cain was in 4:08 1500 shape then....3 months ago!

2. She ran her poorest race yet at Drake, yet still got the HSR, and finished mid-field. Then she ran that 2:01.68 (even if not fully legal!) at Re-RUN, in which she ran almost even pace (about 60.5 and 61.2), and closed hard, just missing catching Treniere Moser!!. The pacer will go 2:10 through 800. Cain should be right there, maybe 2:11 or 2:12......or right behind the pacer. From there, it's up to her!! I think she WANTS the "A".....and I think Salazar wants it too......otherwise, why put her in a "A" chasing race......a race SET UP for an "A" chase??

But one can only hope, eh?? :wink:
aaronk
 
Posts: 3333
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby unclezadok » Fri May 17, 2013 4:14 pm

26mi235 wrote:Coburn is way down the US chart in the 1500 while having only one or two challengers in the SC she has the AL one of her to biggest challengers is a training mate.


Well, she did do a 4:29 mile indoors. But she should stick to the steeple, where she might be able to run the 9:15 or so needed to be competitive internationally.
unclezadok
 
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:54 pm

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 17, 2013 4:24 pm

The steeple should be her primary event, but she needs to run the 1500 and 3000/5000 as well, the former for speed.

You cannot race that many steeples in a season and for the top ones they have a minimum of five steeples 1 qualifying mark, heats/Final USATF, heats/Final WC. That is not counting doing any DL meets (except right at first to get the qualifying mark. If you have to chase the "A" standard it is even more.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby ExRun » Fri May 17, 2013 4:31 pm

Here's my Mary Cain 1500M (perfect race) prediction:
400M splits: 65-66-67 last 300M in 48 for a 2:06

Moser ran a 4:06 1500 M recently and Cain is in equal shape....there was very little difference between them in the Re-Run 800M.
ExRun
 
Posts: 48
Joined: Tue Nov 20, 2012 3:11 pm

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby Marlow » Fri May 17, 2013 4:37 pm

ExRun wrote:Here's my Mary Cain 1500M (perfect race) prediction:
400M splits: 65-66-67 last 300M in 48 for a 2:06

Ha! Your math is worse than mine! :D
Marlow
 
Posts: 21078
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby gh » Fri May 17, 2013 4:37 pm

by the way, for 1.500m, I'm guessing every woman in the field not only breaks 4 minutes, I think they'll break 4 seconds. No, wait, make that 2 seconds, if they react to the gun well :mrgreen:
gh
 
Posts: 46299
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby norunner » Fri May 17, 2013 5:05 pm

Any predictions on when Mary Cain will cure cancer, develop cold fusion and invent an FTL stardrive?
norunner
 
Posts: 1270
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2012 12:21 pm

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby JumboElliott » Fri May 17, 2013 5:21 pm

Next week.
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2115
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby Dutra5 » Fri May 17, 2013 6:02 pm

JumboElliott wrote:Next week.


Well...she is 17. Let's not rush the kid.
Dutra5
 
Posts: 1265
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:51 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby Bob Duncan » Fri May 17, 2013 7:10 pm

aaronk = prophet
Bob Duncan
 
Posts: 842
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby JumboElliott » Fri May 17, 2013 7:11 pm

4:04.62


:shock:
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2115
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby kellits2gnv » Fri May 17, 2013 7:13 pm

Cain 4:04.62. My god. :shock:

What a performance!! EPIC final 50m.
kellits2gnv
 
Posts: 120
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:00 am
Location: Gainesville

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby JumboElliott » Fri May 17, 2013 7:16 pm

Second fastest youth 1500 in history that wasn't run on Chinese soil.
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2115
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby Dutra5 » Fri May 17, 2013 7:18 pm

btw...looks like the kid ran well

4:04.60
Dutra5
 
Posts: 1265
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2011 8:51 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby lovetorun » Fri May 17, 2013 7:20 pm

Anyone have the full race results to post here?
lovetorun
 
Posts: 1204
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 11:48 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby Bob Duncan » Fri May 17, 2013 7:21 pm

Really...she's just too amazing. She's having to learn how to stay out of trouble, not get boxed in, as you can't imagine that being much of a problem for her in high school races. She's got those racing instincts like Centrowitz. One can't help but gush!
Bob Duncan
 
Posts: 842
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 17, 2013 7:23 pm

According to the IAAF scoring tables Mary's 4:04.62 is worth 1169 points which for men is equal to a 3:35.43 1500m / 3:52.50 mile...

Which is about right since they are both marginal "A"s.

Still no results
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby DrJay » Fri May 17, 2013 7:24 pm

Well, this season's a wrap. Hard for anyone to top that.
DrJay
 
Posts: 5481
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 17, 2013 7:28 pm

absolutely incredible, she came from 7th to 3rd in the last 80 meters. 2 one hundreths of a second off the win

Post on LR
Read more:http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5187803#ixzz2TbxYJq72
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby DrJay » Fri May 17, 2013 7:37 pm

Results now up on meet site, I'm not figuring out how to copy and paste them w the iPad
DrJay
 
Posts: 5481
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 17, 2013 7:39 pm

Aside from the obvious these stood out, some for races slower than I expected. Very good speed for the likes of Lucas, Coburn, Conley, who I think of as distance runners, not Mid-D.

4 Brown, Sarah New Balance 4:05.27#
5 Lucas, Julia Nike 4:05.89#
6 Buckman, Zoe Nike 4:05.91#
7 Kuijken, Susan Nike 4:06.59
8 Coburn, Emma Colorado 4:06.87
9 Conley, Kim New Balance 4:07.17

13 Stellingwerff, Hilary Speed River/ 4:10.47 [not having the year she had in 2012]

18 Franek, Bridget Nike 4:15.09

20 Brown, Stephanie Arkansas 4:16.10 [sole collegian aside from Coburn?]

32 Hagans, Lauren Asics 4:21.06
33 Infeld, Emily Nike 4:21.23

35 Bizzarri, Angela Brooks 4:23.27
Last edited by 26mi235 on Fri May 17, 2013 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby DrJay » Fri May 17, 2013 7:42 pm

Changing those close results all around.....maybe they're going to have to have a runoff....
DrJay
 
Posts: 5481
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 17, 2013 7:50 pm

Any one taking bets on her competing in college (or high school); those are now moot, I think.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby DoubleRBar » Fri May 17, 2013 7:55 pm

Mary Cain is starting to remind me of Jim Ryun in 1964. Remember when he made our Olympic team to Tokyo just after his junior year in high school?

He just kept getting better and better.

What are Mary's chances of making our team to Moscow this summer?
DoubleRBar
 
Posts: 1113
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:21 am
Location: Mineral City

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby ExCoastRanger » Fri May 17, 2013 8:06 pm

Coburn, in 8th, got a PR by 2.55 seconds.
ExCoastRanger
 
Posts: 477
Joined: Wed Jan 28, 2009 1:38 pm
Location: North of where I was.

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby Friar » Fri May 17, 2013 8:08 pm

to remind me of Jim Ryun

The difference might be that Ryun though young was physically superior to almost anyone he raced and you don't get that sense with Cain even though it may be the case.
She just seems like a better racer who doesn't get fatigued following almost any pace.
Friar
 
Posts: 1021
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Sittin' on the dock of the Bay.

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby 26mi235 » Fri May 17, 2013 8:14 pm

Ryun was not running to get into the top 5 or so Americans, he was running to get in to te top of the top.
26mi235
 
Posts: 16313
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby JumboElliott » Fri May 17, 2013 8:16 pm

What is the NFHS 1500 record?
JumboElliott
 
Posts: 2115
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:46 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby DrJay » Fri May 17, 2013 8:31 pm

800m at Pre for Cain? Not on the entry list but this could change that.
DrJay
 
Posts: 5481
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby bobguild76 » Fri May 17, 2013 8:50 pm

Aaronk ... you totally rock, dude!!! The amazing thing is that, with Alberto Salazar as a coach, the immediate success isn't at the expense of a long term strategy. Awesome!!!!
bobguild76
 
Posts: 438
Joined: Tue Dec 30, 2008 10:39 pm

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby kellits2gnv » Fri May 17, 2013 9:45 pm

Just got back from Oxy. What a crazy meet. What a crazy race. From what I recall, it seemed like Cain could have gone a bit faster, say 4:03 high as she was boxed in a few times on the last lap. Judging from this performance I think she hits 4:02.50/1:59 this year.
kellits2gnv
 
Posts: 120
Joined: Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:00 am
Location: Gainesville

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby EPelle » Sat May 18, 2013 3:00 am

The top-5 all set PB's. Mackey (Follet) entered with a 4.06,67 set last season in Los Angeles, Cain's was set by the largest margin (6,15 seconds), and Canada's Sifuentes just eeked in a 0,09 second PB with her 4.04,65. Bowman's previous PB (4.05,67) dated back to 2009. Lucas chopped more than a second from her previous best. Eighth-placer Coburn drops from 4.09 to 4.06. Was the new PB the benefactor of her steeple success, or does it bode well for greater things to come over the steeple?
EPelle
 
Posts: 21442
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby aaronk » Sat May 18, 2013 4:00 am

Ho hum.
Yawn.
Zzzzzzzzzz.

Bob Duncan wrote:aaronk = prophet
bobguild76 wrote:Aaronk ... you totally rock, dude!!! The amazing thing is that, with Alberto Salazar as a coach, the immediate success isn't at the expense of a long term strategy. Awesome!!!!


Well, not a prophet.
I think of prophets as fortune tellers or Biblical, and aside from my name (Aaron in the Bible is Moses brother and High Priest of the Jews), I'm not Biblical!

And you know what?
I'm not "obsessive" or "creepy" either.

What I am....is someone who's been more than a fan, observer, and participant of track and field for more than 50 years.
I've spent 1000's of hours compiling a T&F Record Book, and let me tell you, that takes METICULOUS research!!

And from those 50+ years, and all that research, and all those miles of running, and all that observation, has come what I "modestly and humbly" ( :roll: ) would call an "expert insight and knowledge" into what an athlete HAS done and CAN DO!!

And the above is what led me to predict all those fast times for Mary Cain a few months ago.....after her first race, the 9:02 in Seattle.
Back THEN, I said she could run 4:05 this year.

So here it is, folks!
Words I now have been VINDICATED BY MARY to be able to say:

I TOLD YOU SO!!!

(My take on the race itself, and the whole meet, will be left for other posts!)
aaronk
 
Posts: 3333
Joined: Sun May 06, 2012 9:39 am

Re: Oxy (2013) w-1.500m

Postby DrJay » Sat May 18, 2013 4:16 am

So the defibrillator worked OK? :)
DrJay
 
Posts: 5481
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Woodland Park, CO

Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot], smc and 6 guests