aaronk...I think Mary Cain is still steadily improving...but the A standard is not realistic for her yet. I think, w/ the right pace though, she could do 4:07-8. Having said that, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.
lovetorun wrote:aaronk...I think Mary Cain is still steadily improving...but the A standard is not realistic for her yet. I think, w/ the right pace though, she could do 4:07-8. Having said that, I hope I'm wrong and you are right.
I don't want to get into a drawn-out Cain discussion here......been there, done that! .....but I will say that my hopes for Cain tonight are based on a couple of factors:
1. Before the Millrose Games, Salazar said she was in "4:25 shape" (for the mile). She ran 4:28.25, and was timed enroute at 1500 in 4:11.72. IF she had run 4:25, she probably would've been at about 4:08 at 1500. Thus, based on Salazar's observation, you could say Cain was in 4:08 1500 shape then....3 months ago!
2. She ran her poorest race yet at Drake, yet still got the HSR, and finished mid-field. Then she ran that 2:01.68 (even if not fully legal!) at Re-RUN, in which she ran almost even pace (about 60.5 and 61.2), and closed hard, just missing catching Treniere Moser!!. The pacer will go 2:10 through 800. Cain should be right there, maybe 2:11 or 2:12......or right behind the pacer. From there, it's up to her!! I think she WANTS the "A".....and I think Salazar wants it too......otherwise, why put her in a "A" chasing race......a race SET UP for an "A" chase??
The steeple should be her primary event, but she needs to run the 1500 and 3000/5000 as well, the former for speed.
You cannot race that many steeples in a season and for the top ones they have a minimum of five steeples 1 qualifying mark, heats/Final USATF, heats/Final WC. That is not counting doing any DL meets (except right at first to get the qualifying mark. If you have to chase the "A" standard it is even more.
Really...she's just too amazing. She's having to learn how to stay out of trouble, not get boxed in, as you can't imagine that being much of a problem for her in high school races. She's got those racing instincts like Centrowitz. One can't help but gush!
The difference might be that Ryun though young was physically superior to almost anyone he raced and you don't get that sense with Cain even though it may be the case. She just seems like a better racer who doesn't get fatigued following almost any pace.
Just got back from Oxy. What a crazy meet. What a crazy race. From what I recall, it seemed like Cain could have gone a bit faster, say 4:03 high as she was boxed in a few times on the last lap. Judging from this performance I think she hits 4:02.50/1:59 this year.
The top-5 all set PB's. Mackey (Follet) entered with a 4.06,67 set last season in Los Angeles, Cain's was set by the largest margin (6,15 seconds), and Canada's Sifuentes just eeked in a 0,09 second PB with her 4.04,65. Bowman's previous PB (4.05,67) dated back to 2009. Lucas chopped more than a second from her previous best. Eighth-placer Coburn drops from 4.09 to 4.06. Was the new PB the benefactor of her steeple success, or does it bode well for greater things to come over the steeple?
bobguild76 wrote:Aaronk ... you totally rock, dude!!! The amazing thing is that, with Alberto Salazar as a coach, the immediate success isn't at the expense of a long term strategy. Awesome!!!!
Well, not a prophet. I think of prophets as fortune tellers or Biblical, and aside from my name (Aaron in the Bible is Moses brother and High Priest of the Jews), I'm not Biblical!
And you know what? I'm not "obsessive" or "creepy" either.
What I am....is someone who's been more than a fan, observer, and participant of track and field for more than 50 years. I've spent 1000's of hours compiling a T&F Record Book, and let me tell you, that takes METICULOUS research!!
And from those 50+ years, and all that research, and all those miles of running, and all that observation, has come what I "modestly and humbly" ( ) would call an "expert insight and knowledge" into what an athlete HAS done and CAN DO!!
And the above is what led me to predict all those fast times for Mary Cain a few months ago.....after her first race, the 9:02 in Seattle. Back THEN, I said she could run 4:05 this year.
So here it is, folks! Words I now have been VINDICATED BY MARY to be able to say:
I TOLD YOU SO!!!
(My take on the race itself, and the whole meet, will be left for other posts!)