olorin wrote:When I have time, I'll look at who ran in the heats since 2007 and look at what their form was that year. Those alternates would be the people we're talking about exchanging for Felix.
Allyson Felix in the relays:
For each of the last five major championships I present the time by Felix, The difference between her time and the slowest lag by an American in the final (not including the first lag), The difference between her time and the fastest American athlete that compete in the qualifications but not in the final (this athlete is likely to be Felix’s replacement in case she didn’t run).
The final two rows present her contribution to the win. The first is the difference between her time and the time of the second lag athlete of the team that won the silver and the last line is my own assessment of her contribution.
I will demonstrate on 2007 and then present for 2008-2012
Felix time - 48.01
Faster than slowest American lag - Mary Wineberg ran 50.24 (third lag) so the gap is 2.23sec
Faster than fifth American - Hannangan is the fastest lag in the qualifications that did not compete in the final. She ran 50.01 so the gap is 2.09sec
Faster than Silver - the second Jamaican ran 50.05 so the gap is 2.04sec
Felix’s contribution - The gap between the US and Jam was 1.18sec so all the gap (more than 100%) is because of Felix. Another way to look at this is that except Felix all the other three Americans were slower than their Jamaican counterparts.
Felix time - 48.55
Faster than slowest American lag - 1.51sec
Faster than the fifth American - 1.42sec
Faster than Silver - 0.63sec (RUS)
Felix’s contribution - US won by a gap of 0.28. Again, the combine time of the other three American runners was slower than their Russian counterparts. The second lag Russian was actually the fastest lag by them.
Felix time - 48.75
Faster than slowest American lag - 1.35sec
Faster than the fifth American - 2.63sec
Faster than Silver - 0.89sec (JAM)
Felix’s contribution - The gap between US and JAM was 3.32 so Felix contributed roughly one quarter of the gap. Importantly, the second Jamaican athlete (Williams-Mills) was the fastest lag by the Jamaican
Felix time - 49.4
Faster than slowest American lag - 0.44sec
Faster than the fifth American - 2.25sec
Faster than Silver - 0.2sec (JAM)
Felix’s contribution - The gap between US and JAM was 0.62. As noted this was Felix’s worse relay after attempting the 200/400 double. Still very doubtful if the US would have won gold without her.
Faster than slowest American lag - 1.19sec
Faster than the fifth American - 2.06sec
Faster than Silver - 1.6sec
Felix’s contribution - The gap was 3.36 so the US would have won without her. Still Allyson is responsible for half (!) of this gap