The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon


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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby 26mi235 » Wed May 08, 2013 11:43 am

Start by taking 3+% off the WR in each track event and see if those times make sense. Will Bolt be hitting 9.30 or 18.5? Are we looking for a sub-42 400? 1:38 has already been mentioned; 3:19? 7:37; 12:12; 25:30? 57:00?

Since speed is supposed to be such a big part of sub-2, taking runners off of the track where they develop speed does not necessarily improve things. However, on the track, being able to close very fast is important, and that is of little benefit for a marathon.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby TN1965 » Wed May 08, 2013 11:44 am

kuha wrote:
TN1965 wrote:So if the young talent shifts from track to road, that increases the chances of faster times.


"If"? But this is precisely what has happened!


Please name the young Ethiopians and Kenyans who could be better 5K/10K runners on track than the ones who competed in the London Olympics. Who are they? The only one who comes even remotely close is Lelisa Desisa.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby Conor Dary » Wed May 08, 2013 12:17 pm

TN1965 wrote:
kuha wrote:
TN1965 wrote:So if the young talent shifts from track to road, that increases the chances of faster times.


"If"? But this is precisely what has happened!


Please name the young Ethiopians and Kenyans who could be better 5K/10K runners on track than the ones who competed in the London Olympics. Who are they? The only one who comes even remotely close is Lelisa Desisa.


How about the guys who run 2:03, like all 3 of them. And then all of the 2:04 guys, then the 2:05...Whether they were better on the track is debatable, since they don't even seem to run there anymore.

Meanwhile, the Olympics had a way past his prime Bekele.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby Conor Dary » Wed May 08, 2013 12:24 pm

Daisy wrote:
aaronk wrote:I'm talking about a first half in about 59:00 or 59:30!!

We need a modern Steve Jones.

Jones dropped a 4:34 mile on him in mile seven, Kigen was gone.And so was Jones, going where no runner had gone before. He followed that mile with splits of 4:39; 4:37; 4:39 and 4:38 on his way to passing halfway in that astounding 1:01:42

http://www.dailycamera.com/recreation-c ... i_16254268


I was there that day at the finish line and watching it on TV. There was a rabbit Carl Thackery, but Jonesy passed him in the second mile.

I have a video of the race somewhere and it is still an amazing run. He looks so relaxed passing half way in 1:01:42. Even at 1:35:22 at 20 he looked good. Jones slowed in the end, but part of that was due to running on windy Lake Shore Drive, which they don't do now. And also Jones had no idea what the time was. He told me later that there was no clock on the press truck, and it was only near the end he realized he had to get moving again.

As you say, we need a modern Steve Jones.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby TN1965 » Wed May 08, 2013 1:00 pm

Conor Dary wrote:How about the guys who run 2:03, like all 3 of them. And then all of the 2:04 guys, then the 2:05...Whether they were better on the track is debatable, since they don't even seem to run there anymore.


So in other words, no one knows if they are good on track. Then how can anyone state as a fact that the talent is shifting from track to road? That's just speculation.

Geoffrey Mutai lost to Wilson Kiprop and Moses Kipsiro in 10000m at the African Championship. He doesn't have any kick to contend on track. And who was outkicked by this Mr. No Kick at Boston? Moses Mosop. (And how did Kiprop do in the Olympics?)
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby 18.99s » Wed May 08, 2013 1:02 pm

In the 21st century, Dennis Rodman successfully orchestrating a peace treaty between the Koreas is a more likely event than anybody running a sub-2 hr marathon.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby kuha » Wed May 08, 2013 1:11 pm

TN1965 wrote:So in other words, no one knows if they are good on track. Then how can anyone state as a fact that the talent is shifting from track to road? That's just speculation.

Geoffrey Mutai lost to Wilson Kiprop and Moses Kipsiro in 10000m at the African Championship. He doesn't have any kick to contend on track. And who was outkicked by this Mr. No Kick at Boston? Moses Mosop. (And how did Kiprop do in the Olympics?)


It's really much simpler than this, and more objective. How much better now is the top 10 average for the marathon vs. 10, 15, and 20 years ago? Now compare that to the averages for the 5 and 10 over that same span of time. I strongly suspect that one of these will show a significantly greater improvement than the other two. And that tells what we need to know about the distribution of talent.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby Conor Dary » Wed May 08, 2013 1:35 pm

TN1965 wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:How about the guys who run 2:03, like all 3 of them. And then all of the 2:04 guys, then the 2:05...Whether they were better on the track is debatable, since they don't even seem to run there anymore.


So in other words, no one knows if they are good on track. Then how can anyone state as a fact that the talent is shifting from track to road? That's just speculation.

Geoffrey Mutai lost to Wilson Kiprop and Moses Kipsiro in 10000m at the African Championship. He doesn't have any kick to contend on track. And who was outkicked by this Mr. No Kick at Boston? Moses Mosop. (And how did Kiprop do in the Olympics?)


Who loses to who in some one off race is kind of irrelevant. What kind of training are they doing, etc. The training to crank out 4:45 miles as long as possible is a lot different than running 4:10s and trying to finish in 53.

Of course it is speculation, but I have heard Toni Reavis say the same obvious thing. There is a lot of money in marathons. The reality is a track distance guy really makes squat compared to the marathon riches. What do the DL people pay some 13:00 or 26:50 guy? $500? And that is if the race exists.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby TN1965 » Wed May 08, 2013 1:51 pm

kuha wrote:It's really much simpler than this, and more objective. How much better now is the top 10 average for the marathon vs. 10, 15, and 20 years ago? Now compare that to the averages for the 5 and 10 over that same span of time. I strongly suspect that one of these will show a significantly greater improvement than the other two. And that tells what we need to know about the distribution of talent.


20 years ago? 10K WR was over 27 minutes, and 5K WR was barely under 13. Marathon WR was 2:06:50. There was greater improvement in 5K and 10K if you just compare the top time.

If you want to calculate the top 10 average to prove your point, you are more than welcome to post the results here. :)
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby Conor Dary » Wed May 08, 2013 1:59 pm

TN1965 wrote:
kuha wrote:It's really much simpler than this, and more objective. How much better now is the top 10 average for the marathon vs. 10, 15, and 20 years ago? Now compare that to the averages for the 5 and 10 over that same span of time. I strongly suspect that one of these will show a significantly greater improvement than the other two. And that tells what we need to know about the distribution of talent.


20 years ago? 10K WR was over 27 minutes, and 5K WR was barely under 13. Marathon WR was 2:06:50. There was greater improvement in 5K and 10K if you just compare the top time.


Yes, we know all about the 1990's boom, which is sort of irrelevant to this discussion since within 5 years those times came down to 26:22 and 12:37 and pretty much stayed there with a small improvement.

And for what it is worth, I saw some of it live, and kuha probably saw all it in person. A well traveled fellow.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby Pego » Wed May 08, 2013 2:00 pm

kuha wrote:And that tells what we need to know about the distribution of talent.


It could also indicate that we reached the promised land in those events earlier than in the marathon.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby bambam » Wed May 08, 2013 2:05 pm

[quote="TN1965"]So in other words, no one knows if they are good on track. Then how can anyone state as a fact that the talent is shifting from track to road? That's just speculation.

Isn't that the purpose of this board???
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby TN1965 » Wed May 08, 2013 2:07 pm

Another factor is that many of the fast times today are made on fast flat courses (Dubai, Rotterdam, Berlin, Frankfurt, and so forth). If you compare the winning times of the same races in the last 20 years, you will see less remarkable improvement.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby TN1965 » Wed May 08, 2013 2:09 pm

bambam wrote:
TN1965 wrote:So in other words, no one knows if they are good on track. Then how can anyone state as a fact that the talent is shifting from track to road? That's just speculation.

Isn't that the purpose of this board???


I'd rather see speculation stated as such, rather than presented as undisputable fact. But maybe that's just me.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby kuha » Wed May 08, 2013 2:10 pm

bambam wrote:
TN1965 wrote:So in other words, no one knows if they are good on track. Then how can anyone state as a fact that the talent is shifting from track to road? That's just speculation.

Isn't that the purpose of this board???


YES! In fact, it's my purpose in life!! :lol:
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby kuha » Wed May 08, 2013 2:14 pm

TN1965 wrote:I'd rather see speculation stated as such, rather than presented as undisputable fact. But maybe that's just me.


I said "I strongly suspect..." And I do. By no stretch of logic is "I strongly suspect..." an assertion of "undisputable fact." I am inclined to think, I would guess...etc.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby JumboElliott » Wed May 08, 2013 3:20 pm

18.99s wrote:In the 21st century, Dennis Rodman successfully orchestrating a peace treaty between the Koreas is a more likely event than anybody running a sub-2 hr marathon.

So it won't happen for at least another 87 years? Interesting.
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby 26mi235 » Wed May 08, 2013 3:48 pm

We are in the 21st Century...
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Re: The "Myth" of the Sub-2 Marathon

Postby oldhalfmileguy » Thu May 09, 2013 10:18 pm

the people who believe in the idea of a sub 2 all use the same logic that begins with
"who would have thought we would now have guys running..."
well let's go back to what the world marathon record was before the advent of EPO in the late 1980's. Use that as a baseline for your logic, rather than what guys are running now
that time is around 2:07.
To think that current times have not been significantly altered more by "technology" versus advances in training is naive.
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