Cayman Invitational, May 8th


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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby Weights&Shoes » Wed May 08, 2013 8:20 pm

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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby odelltrclan » Wed May 08, 2013 8:25 pm

ATK wrote:
toyracer wrote:From the camera angle

Yea... about that...


Bolt won the race. Barely, but he won. I checked it out several times frame by frame.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby ATK » Wed May 08, 2013 8:33 pm

odelltrclan wrote:
ATK wrote:
toyracer wrote:From the camera angle

Yea... about that...


Bolt won the race. Barely, but he won. I checked it out several times frame by frame.

I don't deny that he won, but I can assure you there is no way you can distinguish a 10.09 from a 10.09 with your naked eye, even worse watching a video, even worse with a skewed camera angle....
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby JumboElliott » Wed May 08, 2013 8:33 pm

How about the big PR for Barbara Pierre?

Looks like there's going to be some competition for the US women's 100m team this year.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby JumboElliott » Wed May 08, 2013 8:37 pm

toyracer wrote:From the camera angle it seemed that Bailey-Cole eased at the end which allowed Bolt to win.

I hope to god he didn't do that. Hopefully it was just the (awful) camera angle.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby lionelp1 » Wed May 08, 2013 8:41 pm

So if Bolt had not won and if his time had been 10.20, so what on May 8th, after an injury.

How can anybody, other than the mildly hysterical, start predicting three months hence.
The endless posts about how fit Bolt is/whether Gay will win in Moscow/how fit Bolt is or is not/ etc etc which will follow now and for the remainder of the season till Moscow are inevitable. :(
My own view is that Bolt used the race as a tentative return from injury and no more. When you have 6 Olympic Golds and 5 WC Golds you dont worry too much about an inconsequential race in early May.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby lonewolf » Wed May 08, 2013 8:56 pm

There is no way you can determine who won that race from the link shown. Since they were both timed in 10.09, I declare it a tie.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby 26mi235 » Wed May 08, 2013 9:14 pm

Well, AF has more golds and more total medals, although fewer individual medals, and a cross a broader range (100 to 400). Yet she is not given the same treatment and assumed dominance as Bolt.

Bolt is lucky that there were no strong runners in this race or he not only would have his worst 100, but a loss to start his season. If you do not think that is important then you were not paying too much attention to the case strongly put forward that Bolt's FS/DQ is not a "loss", so that his record can remain almost clean.

I suspect that if you go to the betting sites you will find that the old on him have become not so extremely high and on Gay have gone up a bit.

Of course, we are trying to make what we can with the data that we have, an this is a "Bayesian" analysis, so that new information adjusts our priors some, but there is still very little new information. [Note that information that is very different than expected has more effect on expectations once the validity of the information is verified. Here, in a low-key race, we do not know everything and so I assume that this is not as much 'information' here as the headline numbers might indicate to some.]
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby MDelano » Wed May 08, 2013 10:34 pm

starboyunlimited wrote:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcU6ShxVXt8
Stats from Letsrun.com "Since becoming a 100 meter man in 2008, Bolt has opened up at 100m in the following times (moving backwards 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009): 9.82, 9.91, 9.86, and 9.93."


I'm fairly certain his 100m split during the 150 he ran in 14.42 in March this year was sub-10.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby tm71 » Wed May 08, 2013 10:52 pm

From the camera angle it seemed that Bailey-Cole eased at the end which allowed Bolt to win.///

totally agree with that statement. bailey-cole was leading by a meter with 10 meters to go then leaned backwards at the finish line. of course these races dont count much, the trials and worlds do this year. i dont think bolt will be running 10.1 in the summer, but i don't see him improving by 0.5 either.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby zidan » Wed May 08, 2013 11:30 pm

Neither did i entering London, after 9.86 at the Jam Trials. Point is, am not saying he cant/wont lose come Moscow, but he has shown us enough that apart from occupping our time with posts on various sites, there is realy nothing Impossible for him to do in the sprints.. Just saying...
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby ZELLGADISS » Wed May 08, 2013 11:32 pm

It is very sure that Bolt was injuried last week, when someone told stupid things like that he was "ducking" :evil:

Now he was better and enough healthy for to run a 100, but of course not enough for to run top level.
Never he ran very strong in this race and he only would to run his first 100m, to see feelings in the track ,not to be injuried after the race and to win.
Well he got it i think....

In Rome we will see better his shape :wink:
Last edited by ZELLGADISS on Thu May 09, 2013 12:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby olorin » Thu May 09, 2013 12:03 am

JumboElliott wrote:How about the big PR for Barbara Pierre?

Looks like there's going to be some competition for the US women's 100m team this year.

So far this is a very good year for American women. Below are the number of sub 11, sub 11.1 and sub 11.2 in the last ten years:
2013..1, 6, 14
2012..4,7,16
2011..2, 8, 18
2010..4, 5, 12
2009..1, 6, 16
2008..7, 15, 21
2007..3, 10, 18
2006..0, 7, 14
2005..1, 5, 7
2004..2, 5, 10
With the NCAA and the American trials still to come I think that we are likely to see the deepest year since 2004.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby aaronk » Thu May 09, 2013 12:22 am

lonewolf wrote:There is no way you can determine who won that race from the link shown. Since they were both timed in 10.09, I declare it a tie.


Should they do a run-off....,
or a coin toss?? :P
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby lionelp1 » Thu May 09, 2013 1:30 am

26mi235 wrote:Well, AF has more golds and more total medals, although fewer individual medals, and a cross a broader range (100 to 400). Yet she is not given the same treatment and assumed dominance as Bolt.

Bolt is lucky that there were no strong runners in this race or he not only would have his worst 100, but a loss to start his season. If you do not think that is important then you were not paying too much attention to the case strongly put forward that Bolt's FS/DQ is not a "loss", so that his record can remain almost clean.

I suspect that if you go to the betting sites you will find that the old on him have become not so extremely high and on Gay have gone up a bit.

Of course, we are trying to make what we can with the data that we have, an this is a "Bayesian" analysis, so that new information adjusts our priors some, but there is still very little new information. [Note that information that is very different than expected has more effect on expectations once the validity of the information is verified. Here, in a low-key race, we do not know everything and so I assume that this is not as much 'information' here as the headline numbers might indicate to some.]


Is that meant to be a response to my post?? some guff about how many medals someone else has, the betting sites who won't be sprinting in Moscow and Bayesian analysis??? :lol: :lol: Wow

New information adjusts our priors? How portentous ???; the season has just got going; as a Brit once said; some people are too clever by half!!, 26 miles.
Bolt was not lucky and he did not lose sleep over this race, so calm down, posters.

Last year we heard all the same stuff about Gatlin/Bolt and then look what happened??
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby shivfan » Thu May 09, 2013 1:31 am

Awful camera angle...I couldn't tell anything of substance from it.

I guess I'll just have to wait for Bolt's next appearance....
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby Marlow » Thu May 09, 2013 3:31 am

Fun race to watch but worthless in projecting where Bolt will be in August. Three months is more than enough time to 'get in shape', 'heal an injury', or 'fall apart'. Bet against Bolt at your extreme peril. That said, I really like where TG is and where he's heading! :wink: Add in Gatlin, Blake and maybe (USA) Bailey and we got ourselves a ball game!
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 09, 2013 4:47 am

lionelp1 wrote:Is that meant to be a response to my post?? some guff about how many medals someone else has, the betting sites who won't be sprinting in Moscow and Bayesian analysis??? :lol: :lol: Wow

New information adjusts our priors? How portentous ???; the season has just got going; as a Brit once said; some people are too clever by half!!, 26 miles.
Bolt was not lucky and he did not lose sleep over this race, so calm down, posters.

Last year we heard all the same stuff about Gatlin/Bolt and then look what happened??

1 You used Bolt's medals as evidence of he will have no problem
2 betting sites provide are 'experts' without a 'point of view' bias; go see if they reduced their assessment of Bolt's likelihood of winning.
3 don't know much statistics?
4 Bolt was 'unlucky''?
5 I am not agitated in the least, but why would you know if Bolt is not losing sleep over this?
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usain pedestrian 100m

Postby blinger » Thu May 09, 2013 6:45 am

you doubters never learn do you jamboy the main person bolt is bolt he can run a 10.0 this week and next week a 9.7 how many times have he done this just do your home work.you don't seem to see what bolt and his coach is up to,just watch and learn tyson can take all the hype right now you will soon hear unleash the beast and boom all the betting sites get confused.and for your wish jam boy for jetter to beat fraiser pryce you are going to be disappointed do you see the form she is in it seems like you are sleeping watch her friday.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby gh » Thu May 09, 2013 7:03 am

lionelp1 wrote:....
Last year we heard all the same stuff about Gatlin/Bolt and then look what happened??


When and where did anybody seriously suggest Gatlin was going to beat Bolt?

Gatlin's seasonal debut was a 9.87 in Doha, at which point Bolt was already the world leader in 9.82.

Here's the subsequent Doha thread: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=46656&hilit=Doha
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby theeld » Thu May 09, 2013 7:25 am

The question I have is how could the announcer proclaim Bolt the winner immediately after the finish in a dead heat, especially as he never held the lead for the entire race? Almost as if the commentary was added over the top of recorded video (like NBC does occasionally).

And who is the producer picking those terrible camera shots in both the mens and womens 100m??? Cutting to the side shot only a moment before hitting the tape???
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby bignate88 » Thu May 09, 2013 7:45 am

JumboElliott wrote:How about the big PR for Barbara Pierre?

Looks like there's going to be some competition for the US women's 100m team this year.

Yeah that caught my eye as well. It seems like she transitioning well from her indoor season. She's better known as an indoor specialist. Hope she'll improve as the season progresses
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby Speedster » Thu May 09, 2013 8:35 am

jamboy wrote:Tiana Madison wins in 23.30


While she won and its a meet record, I would have hoped for faster from Bartoletta, particularly seeing Fraser-Pryce ran a second faster in Jamaica and Jeter went 10.95 here.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby jamboy » Thu May 09, 2013 8:54 am

Speedster wrote:
jamboy wrote:Tiana Madison wins in 23.30


While she won and its a meet record, I would have hoped for faster from Bartoletta, particularly seeing Fraser-Pryce ran a second faster in Jamaica and Jeter went 10.95 here.


She is not known as a 200m runner.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby GDAWG » Thu May 09, 2013 9:23 am

Tiffany Williams in 55.04. Williams seems motivated after the Olympic trials.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby toyracer » Thu May 09, 2013 9:31 am

tm71 wrote:From the camera angle it seemed that Bailey-Cole eased at the end which allowed Bolt to win.///

totally agree with that statement. bailey-cole was leading by a meter with 10 meters to go then leaned backwards at the finish line. of course these races dont count much, the trials and worlds do this year. i dont think bolt will be running 10.1 in the summer, but i don't see him improving by 0.5 either.


Photo of the finish:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... f6157c46b8

I had the same impression : that Bailey-Cole was leading with 15m-10m to go then easing.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby DecFan » Thu May 09, 2013 10:07 am

Thanks for the photo link, toyracer. Neither of the top two had any lean. Had Bailey-Cole leaned like his third place namesake, he would have won.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby ZELLGADISS » Thu May 09, 2013 11:18 am

I see in photo finish Bolt winning.
By very few but yes, 0.006 exactly like we saw in results.
The cameras tv were really horrible :roll:
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby JumboElliott » Thu May 09, 2013 12:08 pm

toyracer wrote:
tm71 wrote:From the camera angle it seemed that Bailey-Cole eased at the end which allowed Bolt to win.///

totally agree with that statement. bailey-cole was leading by a meter with 10 meters to go then leaned backwards at the finish line. of course these races dont count much, the trials and worlds do this year. i dont think bolt will be running 10.1 in the summer, but i don't see him improving by 0.5 either.


Photo of the finish:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... f6157c46b8

I had the same impression : that Bailey-Cole was leading with 15m-10m to go then easing.

Look at the position of his torso. Either he has really shitty posture or he wasn't trying to win.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby Bruce Kritzler » Thu May 09, 2013 1:31 pm

Bolt ran just hard enough to win (coming off an injury) letting up the last 10m (dropping arms).
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 09, 2013 2:28 pm

Bruce Kritzler wrote:Bolt ran just hard enough to win (coming off an injury) letting up the last 10m (dropping arms).


Not really; he had nothing to do with his teammate leaning or not at the finish and would have lost the race with a normal finish by his teammate. He was not calibrating how hard he had to run to win; he just barely got over that modest hurdle.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby ExCoastRanger » Thu May 09, 2013 2:31 pm

Now I'm getting confused.
For the Jam Invite, Bolt wasn't really injured (but he wasn't ducking), but he claimed to be as an excuse to pull out of the meet due to some bad feelings between his coach and the meet organizer. I think a couple of posters were pretty certain of this.

Now he runs a sub-par (for Bolt) race a week later and the explanation is the "injury" has become real and he was really just holding back in the race to be careful with the hamstring?

Or is the Cayman race just the final act of a drawn-out skit that started with the fake injury and has played over into this race, in which our hero is nearly vanquished but somehow right at the end manages to pull out the win with the help of his supporting actor/teammate who let Bolt win at the very last instant?
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby Marlow » Thu May 09, 2013 2:44 pm

Bruce Kritzler wrote:Bolt ran just hard enough to win (coming off an injury) letting up the last 10m (dropping arms).

Something he picked up from Asafa? No one has ever explained to me how you can run a hard 90, but 100 is too much to ask . . . injury, no injury, whatever. If a HS kid did that, he'd be looking for a new sport.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby odelltrclan » Thu May 09, 2013 3:09 pm

Marlow wrote:
Bruce Kritzler wrote:Bolt ran just hard enough to win (coming off an injury) letting up the last 10m (dropping arms).

Something he picked up from Asafa? No one has ever explained to me how you can run a hard 90, but 100 is too much to ask . . . injury, no injury, whatever. If a HS kid did that, he'd be looking for a new sport.


At the top level it speaks to showmanship. I think they are basically saying "Look at me, I don't even have to run hard all the way to beat your sorry ass!" Isn't it reflective of our culture? The NFL guy spiking the ball while staring you in the face, or the NBA player getting a slam dunk and posturing afterwards? This is the track sprinter version. The miler version was Steve Ovett moving out in the lanes and waving to the crowd on the home stretch!
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby 26mi235 » Thu May 09, 2013 3:13 pm

odelltrclan wrote:At the top level it speaks to showmanship. I think they are basically saying "Look at me, I don't even have to run hard all the way to beat your sorry ass!" Isn't it reflective of our culture?


But that is not the story of the race; Bolt was trying to play catch up and he would have failed if his opponent did the merest of dips at the line. It had nothing to do with Bolt running just hard enough to win. He essentially was losing except for a rookie mistake (or worse, the acquiescence of a training partner, but I doubt that).
Last edited by 26mi235 on Thu May 09, 2013 3:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby jamboy » Thu May 09, 2013 3:17 pm

ExCoastRanger wrote:Now I'm getting confused.
For the Jam Invite, Bolt wasn't really injured (but he wasn't ducking), but he claimed to be as an excuse to pull out of the meet due to some bad feelings between his coach and the meet organizer. I think a couple of posters were pretty certain of this.

Now he runs a sub-par (for Bolt) race a week later and the explanation is the "injury" has become real and he was really just holding back in the race to be careful with the hamstring?

Or is the Cayman race just the final act of a drawn-out skit that started with the fake injury and has played over into this race, in which our hero is nearly vanquished but somehow right at the end manages to pull out the win with the help of his supporting actor/teammate who let Bolt win at the very last instant?


All that sounds about right ;)
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby tm71 » Thu May 09, 2013 8:37 pm

Thanks for the photo link, toyracer. Neither of the top two had any lean. Had Bailey-Cole leaned like his third place namesake, he would have won.DecFan

i think bailey-cole finished like asafa powell in that race !
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby toyracer » Mon May 20, 2013 7:33 am

DecFan wrote:Thanks for the photo link, toyracer. Neither of the top two had any lean. Had Bailey-Cole leaned like his third place namesake, he would have won.


And now Bailey-Cole has said it himself: "I watched the race over and over and realised that if I had leaned at finishing and not slowed down close to the line, I would have won"

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2013 ... orts3.html
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby lionelp1 » Mon May 20, 2013 7:53 am

toyracer wrote:
DecFan wrote:Thanks for the photo link, toyracer. Neither of the top two had any lean. Had Bailey-Cole leaned like his third place namesake, he would have won.


And now Bailey-Cole has said it himself: "I watched the race over and over and realised that if I had leaned at finishing and not slowed down close to the line, I would have won"

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2013 ... orts3.html


I would have won if... truly, the most pointless of remarks. If someone last August had run 9.61 he would have beaten UB.Didnt happen.
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Re: Cayman Invitational, May 8th

Postby 26mi235 » Mon May 20, 2013 8:54 am

lionelp1 wrote:
toyracer wrote:
DecFan wrote:Thanks for the photo link, toyracer. Neither of the top two had any lean. Had Bailey-Cole leaned like his third place namesake, he would have won.


And now Bailey-Cole has said it himself: "I watched the race over and over and realised that if I had leaned at finishing and not slowed down close to the line, I would have won"

http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/2013 ... orts3.html


I would have won if... truly, the most pointless of remarks. If someone last August had run 9.61 he would have beaten UB.Didnt happen.


You have it completely wrong; a 9.61 was not something within his grasp at the moment (or any other time) but leaning was eminently reasonable (and expected, just not done).
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