Now we are starting to see more and more athletes 'in form' to base projections on. However, this weekend will provide a fuller assessment.
A couple (of biased because I pay more attention here) indications that we are not at equilibrium yet come from considering Wisconsin. An Olympic Finalist in the 10,000 is not even on the list of the top Ten. Danny Block, who finished 3rd indoors, is picked 6th for the SP and is not listed in the Discus -- he threw 61.xx yesterday (200'x") in San Diego, which is currently fourth in NCAA. Krause ran a 13:34 last weekend, so his 5000 or 10,000 prospects look pretty good, although is he already picked 5th; (I am hoping his increased speed translates into an improvement on his 28:43 10,000 PR. Finally, Cato and Ziemek finished 2/5 in the Hept indoors but do not show up on the Decathlon list (they weak in the throws but a strong 400 helps). By the way, a finish of 7th or so gives Wisconsin the XC/Indoor/Outdoor aggregate best.
26mi235 wrote:Now we are starting to see more and more athletes 'in form' to base projections on. However, this weekend will provide a fuller assessment.
A couple (of biased because I pay more attention here) indications that we are not at equilibrium yet come from considering Wisconsin. An Olympic Finalist in the 10,000 is not even on the list of the top Ten.....
we had been led to believe that Ahmed was redshirting. Is this not the case?
He is listed on the roster but he has not raced yet and he is not on the Stanford/Jordan entry list, which would indicate he is likely redshirting. He does not have any XC eligibility left, but he has one season of Indoor to go with a last outdoor season.
I did see him running the other day, but he was going one way and I was going the other; he looked like he was running easily ... at sub-6 pace?
Last edited by 26mi235 on Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cato and Ziemek won't be showing up at the decathlon, based on the hospital report from Berkeley. Ziemek took one vault and retired. Last seen with a big ice bag on his shoulder. Cato's situation was even more unfortunate. After an already heavy day which included a big long jump win (7.84) and participation on the Wisconsin 4x100 relay, Cato opened his pole vault after everyone else had been eliminated. Big clearances at 4.91, 5.15 and a PR 5.33 preceded a tragic ending. As Cato rocked back to start his run for his final attempt at would-be Wisconsin school record 5.40, a snap was heard and Cato immediately dropped to the ground screaming in pain. It was a freak accident which was diagnosed as a ruptured Achilles. Cato appeared later at the stadium in a walking boot, and said that plans were for surgery either on Sunday or Monday.
Bruce Kritzler wrote:I get the feeling that Arkansas had the best regional performance of the contenders. Tx AM lost their 4x100, FL's Dendy dnq in lj.
Not only did Arkansas qualify every athlete on the latest TFN formchart, they qualified at least one that should be on the next formchart (Jarrion Lawson in the long jump). And since they don't have a single athlete picked to win on the last formchart, they have room to overperform. Texas A&M did very well too, with Dave Brown coming out of nowhere to post a 53-foot triple jump and only that one relay screwup.
Seeds (i.e. rank on descending list) are, to me, not terribly meaningful. But for the top teams I tracked the number of seeds in the top 24 who missed and the number of qualifiers from outside the top 24. Arkansas missed on two and had five "surprise" qualifiers, Texas A&M missed on three and had six "surprise" qualifiers. Both teams have 20 qualifiers.
I see this coming down to Arkansas and Texas A&M, with Florida and Oregon having outside chances. It would be really fun if it comes down to the 4x400.