the London 4x1 revisited [split]


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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby Tuariki » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:46 pm

gh wrote:all the voodoo number-crunching aside, bottom line for me is that if you've seen Bolt run and seen others run, there should be little doubt in your mind that he could easily have made up 2m on Bailey, may have been able to make up 3, but I can't see 4 at all.

Sadly, we will likely never know as this will remain a theoretical debate as the US doesn't have 3 sprinters who can give the US any sort of a lead over Jamaica, let alone a 4 meter lead.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:03 pm

batonless relay wrote:I've read Bailey is 6'4", and because I have stood right next to him, I would say that he is (6'3" at the least). But, I also said that Bolt is taller with seemingly longer legs - a statement I believe to be true. Yes, we see Bolt accelerate well, but that's ONLY when he has everything working right; when he doesn't he labors to catch up to the good starters - many times trailing the field until 40-60m or even 90m. Contrast that with Berlin or even London (though to a lesser degree) where he was ON and blew everyone away almost immediately.

My only point is that though you MAY be correct, you can't prove it and its FAR from "known"; Bolt COULD very well be inhibited MORE by block starts than Bailey is.

When I stood next to him, he seemed every bit 6'4" Anyway, one way to measure how fast they are with a running start is to look at the last 70-80 meters of the London race. How much of Bolt's 0.24s margin of victory came in the first 20-30 meters and how much of it came in the last 70-80 meters? Also keep in mind that we have a lot more data points for Bolt than we do for the younger Bailey and chances are that Bailey will improve his 100 PR, while there's a very good chance that Bolt will never improve on his Berlin performance in which we both agree that he got the start of his life.

Conclusion:
    On average, Bolt is 0.2s-.03s faster than Bailey.
    If Bolt is off and Bailey is on, Bolt is 0.0s-0.1s faster than Bailey.
    If Bolt is on and Bailey is off, Bolt is 0.4s-0.5s faster than Bailey.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:26 pm

That sounds about right. And, yes, it would be nice to see Bailey make the jump below the 9.84 barrier; it seems to be a firmament to 9.7x, because every person who has run below 9.84 has run 9.7x or better (Steve Mullings, excepted).
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby toyracer » Thu Apr 25, 2013 10:28 am

26mi235 wrote: However, a few flaws in the handoffs would open the door, especially if a first flaw puts people behind who expected to be ahead and they push too much (AP has not had this problem in the relays that he has had in the open 100, but an unexpected problem might make it happen here.


I have to disagree. Asafa does not fall apart on relays, even when he is behind.

'02 Commonwealth Games
'07 Worlds.

Got the baton behind on both occasions and still gave maximum effort.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:02 pm

toyracer wrote:
26mi235 wrote: However, a few flaws in the handoffs would open the door, especially if a first flaw puts people behind who expected to be ahead and they push too much (AP has not had this problem in the relays that he has had in the open 100, but an unexpected problem might make it happen here.


I have to disagree. Asafa does not fall apart on relays, even when he is behind.

'02 Commonwealth Games
'07 Worlds.

Got the baton behind on both occasions and still gave maximum effort.

I agree with this. Powell seems to give a greater effort when he's running for his country than when he's running for himself. I would also add that in both 2008 and 2009, he ran all the way through the finish despite having a big lead. In open 100 races, it's common for him to start shutting down before the finish when he knows he's going to win.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ZELLGADISS » Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:06 am

The theme is that Bolt is minimum 0.2 seconds faster that Bailey.
He was 0.25 faster in final OG, and Bolt was "only" 90-95% resting 1 month since injury in trials Jamaica.
Bolt 100% is easy 0.3 seconds faster that Bailey.
And if Bailey is not 100% the advantage is a lot of bigger.....
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:49 am

ZELLGADISS wrote:The theme is that Bolt is minimum 0.2 seconds faster that Bailey.
He was 0.25 faster in final OG, and Bolt was "only" 90-95% resting 1 month since injury in trials Jamaica.
Bolt 100% is easy 0.3 seconds faster that Bailey.
And if Bailey is not 100% the advantage is a lot of bigger.....

This assumes that we saw the best of Bailey in the London final, and we didn't see the best of Bolt in that final which I doubt is the case based on their ages. My hunch is that Bolt's 9.5 days are behind him and that Bailey has 9.7 days in front of him.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Fri Apr 26, 2013 4:59 am

lifetime bests and potential have nothing to do with the discussion here (at least not from what I was stating). On that day in London (not another day, past, present or future) I believe that Bolt could/would have run down Bailey from at least 2m back, maybe 3. But I can't imagine 4.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ZELLGADISS » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:06 am

gh i think same, THAT day Bolt wins in the final 4x100 OG to Bailey, 2m back, 3m back probably and 4m back IMPOSSIBLE :wink:
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:22 am

gh wrote:lifetime bests and potential have nothing to do with the discussion here (at least not from what I was stating). On that day in London (not another day, past, present or future) I believe that Bolt could/would have run down Bailey from at least 2m back, maybe 3. But I can't imagine 4.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I certainly don't disagree with you, and I pretty much said as much in one of my earlier posts. Simple math tells us that 0.25s = 2-3 meters.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 5:29 am

ZELLGADISS wrote:gh i think same, THAT day Bolt wins in the final 4x100 OG to Bailey, 2m back, 3m back probably and 4m back IMPOSSIBLE :wink:

If only Gay had gotten out on time . . . . . :(
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jamboy » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:03 am

The only way Jamaica loses the 4 x 100m in Moscow this summer is if Blake is injured/or off form due to injury and if Asafa is the same.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:09 am

that's right, since a botched handoff/baton drop simply doesn't happen to Jamaica. It's the law.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:16 am

jamboy wrote:The only way Jamaica loses the 4 x 100m in Moscow this summer is if Blake is injured/or off form due to injury and if Asafa is the same.

Are you guaranteeing another WR because that's what it took to beat the U.S. in London?
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby Tuariki » Fri Apr 26, 2013 8:56 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
jamboy wrote:The only way Jamaica loses the 4 x 100m in Moscow this summer is if Blake is injured/or off form due to injury and if Asafa is the same.

Are you guaranteeing another WR because that's what it took to beat the U.S. in London?

Given that the US was 0.20 behind Jamaica I don't think anyone has to guarantee anything about the need for Jamaica to set a new WR in order for Jamaica to beat the US.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Apr 26, 2013 9:37 am

Tuariki wrote:Given that the US was 0.20 behind Jamaica I don't think anyone has to guarantee anything about the need for Jamaica to set a new WR in order for Jamaica to beat the US.

But that 0.2s deficit could have been easily erased with a healthy DIx and a clean second exchange. My point is that based on current personel, the U.S. has 36.7-36.8s potential when everything is perfect. Based on its current personel, Jamaica can no doubt run faster than that, and that might be what's needed if the U.S. has a perfect race like the American women did in London.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ATK » Fri Apr 26, 2013 2:42 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:might be what's needed if the U.S. has a perfect race like the American women did in London.

Even though there was still some improvements that could have been done with the women as well (see 3rd handoff)
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby eldanielfire » Sat Apr 27, 2013 3:54 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Tuariki wrote:Given that the US was 0.20 behind Jamaica I don't think anyone has to guarantee anything about the need for Jamaica to set a new WR in order for Jamaica to beat the US.

But that 0.2s deficit could have been easily erased with a healthy DIx and a clean second exchange. My point is that based on current personel, the U.S. has 36.7-36.8s potential when everything is perfect. Based on its current personel, Jamaica can no doubt run faster than that, and that might be what's needed if the U.S. has a perfect race like the American women did in London.


I'm not so sure this is entirely true, Jamaica's men can certainly improve and Bolt will be faster this year.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby gh » Sat Apr 27, 2013 5:48 am

Bolt faster than ever or faster than last year's 9.63? Either way, "will" is a pretty bold statement methinks.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby eldanielfire » Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:50 am

gh wrote:Bolt faster than ever or faster than last year's 9.63? Either way, "will" is a pretty bold statement methinks.



I'm taking he's still at his peak years, we are in a period where the top sprinters are running faster in their later 20's rather than their earlier 20's and he hasn't either given 100% previously or been 100%. He's claimed he has had a good winter for the first time since 2010 (I think) and he's claimed he and his coach believes he can do 9.4 something and maybe sub-19. Quite bold statements which indicate some confidence.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jamboy » Sat Apr 27, 2013 6:56 am

gh wrote:that's right, since a botched handoff/baton drop simply doesn't happen to Jamaica. It's the law.


Never happened to our mens team and happened once to our females.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ZELLGADISS » Sat Apr 27, 2013 7:40 am

In my opinion without injuries, Bolt breaks his WR in that final OG London.
He got amazing 9.76 -0.1 in Rome end of May.
With injury in trials, he had to rest 1 month for to be in London more or less good, but "only" 90-95%
Im sure that 100% his Wr would be broken in that final.

This year we go to see like he is running and if he is more or less same shape ,without injuries and with good weather in the final in Moscow, i think that WR is broken there :wink:
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:20 am

Citing runners that were their best in their mid-to-late-20s is not that useful without assessing where they were when they were 16, 18, and 20. None of those I have seen mentioned were remotely that good (relatively speaking). Bolt is starting to get long in the tooth for a sprinter at the highest level and his improving his PR is no more likely than that he crops of with a slowly increasing number of injuries that keep a lid on what he can do (and when).

His two best races are 4 and 5 years ago, although a close third was late last season.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby ZELLGADISS » Sat Apr 27, 2013 10:34 am

Looks that NOBODY saw the last year his amazing 9.76 -0.1 end of may in Rome 8-)
He never ran so fast in other years before big championships :evil:
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:21 am

eldanielfire wrote:he hasn't either given 100% previously or been 100%.

So are you sayuing that he was hurt in Berlin, because he certainly gave 100%? :?
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:24 am

jamboy wrote:
gh wrote:that's right, since a botched handoff/baton drop simply doesn't happen to Jamaica. It's the law.


Never happened to our mens team and happened once to our females.

You obviously have a very short memory. Have you forgooten 2007 when Bolt switched hands on the second leg, thereby botching the second exchange? And what about this epic moment from the 2001 World Championships?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OO_KmETpo0
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby iain » Sat Apr 27, 2013 11:28 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
jamboy wrote:
gh wrote:that's right, since a botched handoff/baton drop simply doesn't happen to Jamaica. It's the law.


Never happened to our mens team and happened once to our females.

You obviously have a very short memory. Have you forgooten 2007 when Bolt switched hands on the second leg, thereby botching the second exchange? And what about this epic moment from the 2001 World Championships?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OO_KmETpo0


Lol that is great. Think jamboy was referring actual drops though.
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby eldanielfire » Sat Apr 27, 2013 12:19 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:he hasn't either given 100% previously or been 100%.

So are you sayuing that he was hurt in Berlin, because he certainly gave 100%? :?


I'm talking about since Berlin!
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Re: the London 4x1 revisited [split]

Postby toyracer » Sat Apr 27, 2013 5:54 pm

jamboy wrote:
gh wrote:that's right, since a botched handoff/baton drop simply doesn't happen to Jamaica. It's the law.


Never happened to our mens team and happened once to our females.


You're joking.
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