tgs3 wrote: olorin wrote:
DecFan wrote: In recent years ~8,550 was good enough to medal. I think that this year he will find it hard to medal without a significant improvement.
Really? And who else is going to improve to the point that 8550 will not be good enough for 3rd? I know there's a handful of guys (particular Warner) that could do it, but I think it's rather unlikely more than one of them (and Suarez) goes over 8550 at the same meet. And that assumes neither Eaton or Hardee stumble on some event. I don't think Suarez is a lock for a medal, but I'd be surprised if 8550 wasn't good enough for a bronze.
Eelco SINTNICOLAAS is probably the decathlete (beside the big two) with the highest chance to break 8,600 this year. He has already a PB of 8501 and he just had a wonderful winter season in which he improved his Heptathlon PB by ~200 points.
I am glad to we agree on Warner.
Kevin Mayer (21) broke his PB last year by 500 points (8,406). He also had a good winter and broke his PB in the shot by 82cm. With the expected improvement in the throws he too is likely to break 8,600.
Behind these three Pascal BEHRENBRUCH (GER) has an outside shot as well as Sergey SVIRIDOV (RUS) a 22 year decathlete that last year broke his PB by 700 points (8365).
Finally, there is a hungry pack of 5-6 young decathletes that are now around 8,200 shape and are waiting for the big breakthrough. The chances of each of individually is very small to do it THIS year, but as a group one of them may bring a surprise.
So with three real chances, two outside chances and several long shots I think that it is unlikely that less than 8,600 will medal.
An injury to Eaton or Hardee is likely to change everything as does an O'Brien 1992 disaster. Other than that both are good enough to score 8,600+ even if they are not at their best.