Spearmon moving up to 400


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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:19 pm

So there are a lot of 19.5 guys in the 200?
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jamboy » Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:44 pm

26mi235 wrote:So there are a lot of 19.5 guys in the 200?



That was just a one of race for him. It will never happen again.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Apr 11, 2013 1:55 pm

jamboy wrote:
26mi235 wrote:So there are a lot of 19.5 guys in the 200?



That was just a one of[f] race for him. It will never happen again.


Several years earlier he had a pretty fast 200 in a college meet, and his 100 times support his 200 mark -- that is not a one-off mark for an multiple medalist.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby Vault-emort » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:07 pm

JRM wrote:
Vault-emort wrote:Perhaps I have some reading comprehension problems. To me, this says "Spearmon will try a few 400s, and will possibly move up if it works out." This doesn't say "SPEARMON MOVING UP TO 400m". Did I miss something?

Sorry, when my schedule allows I will change thread title to "Spearmon will try a few 400s and will possibly move up if it works out".
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby rainy.here » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:30 pm

jamboy wrote:
26mi235 wrote:So there are a lot of 19.5 guys in the 200?



That was just a one of race for him. It will never happen again.


Huh? He was Bronze 100 & 200 in '08 Olympics, and Silver 100 & 200 in '11 worlds. Dude knows how to run...
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby jamboy » Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:45 pm

rainy.here wrote:
jamboy wrote:
26mi235 wrote:So there are a lot of 19.5 guys in the 200?



That was just a one of race for him. It will never happen again.


Huh? He was Bronze 100 & 200 in '08 Olympics, and Silver 100 & 200 in '11 worlds. Dude knows how to run...


And Lauryn Williams has WC gold and OG silver at the 100m. I don't expect to ever see her back on the medal stand.

The competition(especially) from Jamaica has since passed these athletes.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby gktrack » Tue Apr 23, 2013 9:18 am

Re: Spearmon
Vault-emort wrote:After his win at 200m in Melbourne overnight, Spearmon said:

"I'm going to run a few 400s and if I do well I might try and step up to the 400,”...

If there's a time to see if Spearmon is considering the 400, might it be this weekend at Penn? He ran the 4x400 there in 2006-2009 for the USA teams, splitting 45.5/44.9/45.5/45.5 respectively... Seems like a reasonable place for him to give it a try this season.

Re: Dix
Is he still with John Smith?... maybe valleyrunner knows? Haven't seen anything on Walter since last year.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby TxHottrack » Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:10 pm

I think this is a smart decision for Spearmon to move up to the 400. And I think a healthy Dix can still be a factor in the 100/200.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby user4 » Tue Apr 23, 2013 12:59 pm

If I had to guess, Spearmon will surely have at least a 44low 400m PR by June.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby ATK » Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:02 pm

user4 wrote:If I had to guess, Spearmon will surely have at least a 44low 400m PR by June.

Joke?
You have to go back to 2006 to find an athlete besides
Angelo Taylor (#11 AT)
Kirani James(#9 AT)
LaShawn Merritt(#5 AT)
Jeremy Wariner (#3 AT)

before you can get to another athlete that has run 44 low (faster than 44.40)
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby gh » Wed Apr 24, 2013 5:59 am

yeah, very easy (and dangerous) to project times in the low 44s. As you say, they don't happen often. Having said that, when you take one of the fastest 200 guys ever, and he's a known hard worker and solid student of the sport and he gets serious about this event for the first time, I like his chances (although for me, "44-low" starts at 44.49!).
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby user4 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:21 am

gh wrote:yeah, very easy (and dangerous) to project times in the low 44s. As you say, they don't happen often. Having said that, when you take one of the fastest 200 guys ever, and he's a known hard worker and solid student of the sport and he gets serious about this event for the first time, I like his chances (although for me, "44-low" starts at 44.49!).


In addition to the high character factors you mention there is his efficient gait and stature for the event. Contrasted with Walter Dix, with a comparable 200m PR, I dont know if I would expect as much from Dix at 400m. Spearmon seems to be built to succeed at 400m. If he does take the event seriously it is a brilliant choice.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby ATK » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:35 am

gh wrote:yeah, very easy (and dangerous) to project times in the low 44s. As you say, they don't happen often. Having said that, when you take one of the fastest 200 guys ever, and he's a known hard worker and solid student of the sport and he gets serious about this event for the first time, I like his chances (although for me, "44-low" starts at 44.49!).


I guess I can agree with you, if he really works for the event. Seeing what Xman did back in the day, the potential is there, but looking at what has been done, I would never beton it.

Just out of curiosity what do you define a low mid and high times? For example I break it out evenly like this:

Low 44.10-44.39
Mid 44.40-44.69
High 44.70-44.99
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby nicest person ever » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:36 am

Yea I agree with user4.

His build and gait/form seem very well suited to the event. In the 200, his signature tactic has always been to run an extreeeeeeeeeemely energy-efficient curve (which the announcers usually simple labelled as a "slow" or "bad" curve, but, when you consider he wasn't falling THAT far behind on that curve, yet was clearly saving up a lot of energy in the tank to exploit in the last 50m of his run, while still running at, all things considered, a very fast "supercruise" pace through the curve (when taking into account what he was actually doing when he was going that), and then showing himself to be pretty much THE strongest finisher in the history of the planet in the final 50m of his 200m runs (often going a full 4 or 5 mph faster than the rest of the field in the last quarter of the race, blowing past people or catching people from behind etc), this overall racing style in the 200 is exactly the type that seems like it would be the most compatible with someone being a 200/400 guy (as opposed to being a 100/200 guy). The 100/200 guys you can see blast out eyeballs to the wall, going full out right from the blocks, and then tend to die out in the last 30m or so practically turning into zombies by the time they hit the finish line. Spearmon is basically the exact inverse of that.

Thus, if ever there was a 200m runner who seemed like he might also be a candidate to have a lot of theoretical potential for the 400m, it's Spearmon.

I'm not sure I'm ballsy enough to predict him as going 44-low before this season ends, but, I do think it is at least POSSIBLE, like, maybe a 20-30% chance (which is SAYING SOMETHING, when considering just how elite territory 44-low in the 400 is, let alone getting there in just 1 season). If he continues with it into the following season, and takes it seriously, then, I think his odds might be more like 50/50 of getting there by the end of next season, or maybe even better than 50% chance. It's far from a sure thing, but I'm pretty excited about it and have a feeling he might become a really good 400m runner. I can't wait to see how it plays out.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby gh » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:41 am

ATK wrote:
gh wrote:yeah, very easy (and dangerous) to project times in the low 44s. As you say, they don't happen often. Having said that, when you take one of the fastest 200 guys ever, and he's a known hard worker and solid student of the sport and he gets serious about this event for the first time, I like his chances (although for me, "44-low" starts at 44.49!).


I guess I can agree with you, if he really works for the event. Seeing what Xman did back in the day, the potential is there, but looking at what has been done, I would never beton it.

Just out of curiosity what do you define a low mid and high times? For example I break it out evenly like this:

Low 44.10-44.39
Mid 44.40-44.69
High 44.70-44.99


easy.... I don't use mid! It's either high or low, which is a fine enough distinction for me in a 400.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby John G » Wed Apr 24, 2013 7:58 am

nicest person ever wrote:Yea I agree with user4.

His build and gait/form seem very well suited to the event. In the 200, his signature tactic has always been to run an extreeeeeeeeeemely energy-efficient curve (which the announcers usually simple labelled as a "slow" or "bad" curve, but, when you consider he wasn't falling THAT far behind on that curve, yet was clearly saving up a lot of energy in the tank to exploit in the last 50m of his run, while still running at, all things considered, a very fast "supercruise" pace through the curve (when taking into account what he was actually doing when he was going that), and then showing himself to be pretty much THE strongest finisher in the history of the planet in the final 50m of his 200m runs (often going a full 4 or 5 mph faster than the rest of the field in the last quarter of the race, blowing past people or catching people from behind etc), this overall racing style in the 200 is exactly the type that seems like it would be the most compatible with someone being a 200/400 guy (as opposed to being a 100/200 guy). The 100/200 guys you can see blast out eyeballs to the wall, going full out right from the blocks, and then tend to die out in the last 30m or so practically turning into zombies by the time they hit the finish line. Spearmon is basically the exact inverse of that.

Thus, if ever there was a 200m runner who seemed like he might also be a candidate to have a lot of theoretical potential for the 400m, it's Spearmon.

I'm not sure I'm ballsy enough to predict him as going 44-low before this season ends, but, I do think it is at least POSSIBLE, like, maybe a 20-30% chance (which is SAYING SOMETHING, when considering just how elite territory 44-low in the 400 is, let alone getting there in just 1 season). If he continues with it into the following season, and takes it seriously, then, I think his odds might be more like 50/50 of getting there by the end of next season, or maybe even better than 50% chance. It's far from a sure thing, but I'm pretty excited about it and have a feeling he might become a really good 400m runner. I can't wait to see how it plays out.



I agree with all this 'npe' - well put (although I did need to use my asthma inhaler to get through the second sentence of the second para).
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby Marlow » Wed Apr 24, 2013 8:06 am

ATK wrote:Low 44.10-44.39
Mid 44.40-44.69
High 44.70-44.99

Made me think about it, but yeah, that's what I use too.

0,1,2,3 is low
4, 5, 6 is mid
7, 8, 9 is high
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby lonewolf » Wed Apr 24, 2013 8:54 am

To pick a nit. x.5 is mid, every thing else is either low or high.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby nicest person ever » Wed Apr 24, 2013 9:02 am

lonewolf wrote:To pick a nit. x.5 is mid, every thing else is either low or high.


edit: nevermind. For a second I thought you meant "x.5x" by "x.5", when now that I look at it I am pretty sure you mean "x.50" (and were thus making a comment in regards to gh's hi/lo thing).

I initially thought you meant any x.5x (i.e. "x.59" etc) would be a "mid", but that x.49 would be a low, and I was gonna comment about how x.49 is actually closer to the middle than say, x.59 (.01 away as opposed to .09 away), but now that I'm pretty sure your "x.5" was intended to be taken as "x.50", my comment would be moot.

nevermind guys, carry on etc
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:15 am

Well, if he runs a very fast 400 he will move pretty high on the all-time 100/200/400 list. As far as I am concerned you can use IAAF points or you can use average time per 100m to generate that list; I am surprised that no one has used the latter system.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby gh » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:18 am

why would anybody (other than a mathematician) want to get into division problems when something can be looked up on a chart?
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby gktrack » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:47 am

Speaking of the 100/200/400 list, is this table correct from the T&FN archive dated 2/12/12?... the point totals look very high vs. IAAF tables, or am I missing something?
http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/images/stories/tfn_pdfs/mcombosprinters.pdf

Add: What I was missing is the difference between decathlon/pentathlon scoring tables and event scoring tables.
Last edited by gktrack on Wed Apr 24, 2013 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Spearmon moving up to 400

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:08 pm

gh wrote:why would anybody (other than a mathematician) want to get into division problems when something can be looked up on a chart?


Well, because it is a function and you no longer have to look it up on the chart. Besides, when you get an occasional different answer using seemingly almost identical methodologies it may tell you something about your metrics that you did not see completely before.

Also, if you do not like division, multiply the 100 by 4 and double the 200. Of course, since the slowdown rate makes time for the 400 about 10% slower...
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