Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake [4:10.77 HSR]


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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Sat Apr 13, 2013 10:57 pm

Just watched two videos of Mary Cain races.
One was a different YouTube from the "official" one of her 2 mile race, the one with Hutchings announcing.
This one was a jumpy 7:50-long one by a person in the stands near the finish line.

The other was of Cain's frosh class record of 4:17.84 from 2011.

And I noticed two things I hadn't noticed before.....or at least hadn't focused on.

1. In her 4:17.84 race, she LED all the way!! She was NEVER in 2nd place!! This "tactic" has NOT been in evidence since then!
2. In the 2 mile, the camera showed Dibaba running the straight past the finish line, from about the 1200 meter point onward (with a little bit of the start of the race), followed by "the pack", which included Cain. As each (200 meter) lap progressed, the announcer got more and more excited about how much Cain was ahead of record pace. But what most struck me was the EASE and the POWER of Cain's stride. She looks like she's just loping along, but she's matching strides with some pretty good pro's, and in fact moving up a place or two almost every lap!!

After watching these two videos, I came to a couple of conclusions.....though I've felt this way before.

1. If Cain's purpose in running the 1500 at Drake is to get the "A" out of the way early, then she'll go for it, whether the Uceny's, Simpson's, and Rowbury's are doing so or not. And, based on that 4:17.84, she is able to FRONT-RUN the whole way, if necessary!! Like I said, she didn't run this strategy in her 6 records this year!!
2. While the caliber of athlete is moving up a few notches at Drake (from her indoor races), she looks to have the relaxed, yet powerful stride necessary to stay with these "elites".

If she wants the 4:05.50, she's GOING to get it!!
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Apr 13, 2013 11:02 pm

aaronk wrote:
1. In her 4:17.84 race, she LED all the way!! She was NEVER in 2nd place!! This "tactic" has NOT been in evidence since then!


When she is running with high school girls her place in the pack (or ahead of it) will generally be different than when she is running with national-class (and world-class) runners.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Sat Apr 13, 2013 11:16 pm

26mi235 wrote:
aaronk wrote:
1. In her 4:17.84 race, she LED all the way!! She was NEVER in 2nd place!! This "tactic" has NOT been in evidence since then!


When she is running with high school girls her place in the pack (or ahead of it) will generally be different than when she is running with national-class (and world-class) runners.


True.
But this was the first HSR she set.
And her main opponent was one Aisling Cuffe, not exactly your average HS runner then!
So front-running the whole way was pretty daring for her!!

My point was.....that if the "elites" choose to just run 4:08 to 4:10....kind of a speed test after a winter's training....and Cain and Salazar have this planned as an "A" chaser.....she will...and CAN....front-run the entire way!!
She proved that....against top-notch HS competition....and in a first-ever record attempt....in that frosh race!

ADD: We should know BEFORE the race what everybody intends to do. I'm guessing Uceny and Co.....and Salazar/Cain will both come out with some sort of pronouncment prior to the race!
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby EPelle » Sat Apr 13, 2013 11:55 pm

Unless she's competed under a guise, Cain hasn't yet lined up this outdoor season. Which concludes that Cain's also rust-busting. If she's front-running in what amounts to a 4.08-ish race, a more experienced contestant with 2.00-low/4.00-low PBs will take the opportunity to file in, sit and trounce when it counts.
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Mary Cain ?

Postby puddys12 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 6:14 am

Have not seen anything about Mary Cain in the outdoor season yet . Is she not competing and if she is when ?
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby Blues » Thu Apr 18, 2013 6:52 am

puddys12 wrote:Have not seen anything about Mary Cain in the outdoor season yet . Is she not competing and if she is when ?


She's running the 1500m at the Drake Relays against some elite pro competition on Friday night, April 26th. Scheduled time at Drake is 7:20pm. (For the gamblers in here, the current over/under on how many exclamation points aaronk will use in this thread is 55... :wink: )

Tentative start list for Drake women's 1500:

Mary Cain
Emma Coburn
Shannon Rowbury
Maryam Jamal
Jennifer Simpson
Heather Kampf
Morgan Uceny
Sarah Bowman Brown
Christin Wurth Thomas
Gabrielle Anderson
Kate Grace
Ashley Miller


http://www.godrakebulldogs.com/pdf9/1845488.pdf
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby James Fields » Thu Apr 18, 2013 7:37 am

Miss Cain should be advised that against those Drake competitors she should not run much of the race in second lane [extra distance] as she did back east in her great indoor race.
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby puddys12 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 7:57 am

She did 4:11.01 last year in the 1500. How much to you think she will beat that by ?
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby br » Thu Apr 18, 2013 8:12 am

puddys12, have you not been following aaronk's posts about Cain's potential? He has pretty much covered that topic in stifling detail.
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby aaronk » Thu Apr 18, 2013 8:13 am

There is already a thread on this race.
I started it as soon as I heard she'd be racing the "true elites".
It's probably on the 2nd or 3rd page of thread titles.

And look, NO exclamation points. :D
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Thu Apr 18, 2013 8:37 am

Saw (in a new Cain thread) that Maryam Jamal is running that 1500.
Whoa!!
Unless Jamal, a 3:56 runner, has traveled all the way from Bahrain just to run a "rust-buster", then this race looks to definitely be an "A" chaser!
I mean, she could run a "rust-buster" in her home nation.

And if Cain should win.......
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby Helen S » Thu Apr 18, 2013 8:58 am

There is already a thread on this race.
I started it as soon as I heard she'd be racing the "true elites".
It's probably on the 2nd or 3rd page of thread titles.

And look, NO exclamation points.


and I say " !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!."
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby br » Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:21 am

aaronk wrote:Saw (in a new Cain thread) that Maryam Jamal is running that 1500.
Whoa!!
Unless Jamal, a 3:56 runner, has traveled all the way from Bahrain just to run a "rust-buster", then this race looks to definitely be an "A" chaser!
I mean, she could run a "rust-buster" in her home nation.

And if Cain should win.......


She is headquartered in Europe (St. Moritz?). She neither lives nor trains in Bahrain.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby EPelle » Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:23 am

Any athlete in the field whose not raced this outdoor season is shaking off the rust. Cain included.

NB: Jamal hasn't run this season, hasn't been in 3.56 shape since 2009, and hasn't broken 4-flat since 2010.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:53 am

EPelle wrote:Any athlete in the field whose not raced this outdoor season is shaking off the rust. Cain included.

NB: Jamal hasn't run this season, and hasn't been in 3.56 shape since 2009, and hasn't broken 4-flat since 2010.


Okay.
But why, if it's just a "rust buster" for Jamal, would she....
1. Come from St Moritz (??) or wherever to run a relatively slow race?
2. Go up against the likes of Uceny and Simpson, when she could have as easily entered the Mt SAC or Penn or Kansas races, and come away an easy winner?

Finally, in a slow "rust busting" type of race, the kickers will have the advantage.

And that places Cain on a very even, if not superior, level with the rest of the entrants....including a "rust busting", and sub-par Jamal!

And what will Salazar's instructions be?
Or Mary's intentions?
If it's to get an "A", then Goodbye Rust!!
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby EPelle » Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:04 am

I'm afraid you're getting lost in your own hype. Which one of these athletes are in peak racing form? None. How many 1.500m races have the top entrants run this season? Likely none. And of this Mary Cain entrant? It's unknown what she can accomplish in a first-race outdoor season opener. Given that she's never run this type of race this early in the season -- ever -- and that Drake's not an exceptionally fast venue, she's not likely to run the socks off the gals in the race in a 4.08-ish race.

Folks are arriving to get into a quality race and determine what work remains prior to world championships selection. Drake happens to land on a week-end which makes sense to the entrants to shake off the dust, get the legs going and re-learn race pace around a 400m track.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby Blues » Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:10 am

EPelle wrote:Any athlete in the field whose not raced this outdoor season is shaking off the rust. Cain included.

NB: Jamal hasn't run this season, hasn't been in 3.56 shape since 2009, and hasn't broken 4-flat since 2010.


But she still deserves some recent props since she WAS good enough to win the bronze medal in London behind those two "amazing" Turkish entrants, the winner of whom was Cakir Alptekin who we've read a lot about lately for reasons I won't go into.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby gh » Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:13 am

aaronk wrote:...
But why, if it's just a "rust buster" for Jamal, would she....
1. Come from St Moritz (??) or wherever to run a relatively slow race?...


Because she's a professional athlete and this is her job. This is a payday and she gets paid the same for a 4:08 as she does for a 5:08. No international athlete has the remotest thoughts of being in anything but in the middle of hard training in April. This is a brief divertissement, nothing more.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby JumboElliott » Thu Apr 18, 2013 10:27 am

I bet the winner of this race runs 4:03 or 4:04 at the very fastest, and even that might be a little bit optimistic.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby exdrake » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:25 pm

Sigh. I think Eugene is bidding for this meet next year.

Go Bulldogs.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby Conor Dary » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:44 pm

exdrake wrote:Sigh. I think Eugene is bidding for this meet next year.

Go Bulldogs.


What? The Drake Relays? In Eugene?
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby Dutra5 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 1:21 pm

aaronk wrote:
26mi235 wrote:
aaronk wrote:
1. In her 4:17.84 race, she LED all the way!! She was NEVER in 2nd place!! This "tactic" has NOT been in evidence since then!


When she is running with high school girls her place in the pack (or ahead of it) will generally be different than when she is running with national-class (and world-class) runners.


True.
But this was the first HSR she set.
And her main opponent was one Aisling Cuffe, not exactly your average HS runner then!
So front-running the whole way was pretty daring for her!!

My point was.....that if the "elites" choose to just run 4:08 to 4:10....kind of a speed test after a winter's training....and Cain and Salazar have this planned as an "A" chaser.....she will...and CAN....front-run the entire way!!
She proved that....against top-notch HS competition....and in a first-ever record attempt....in that frosh race!

ADD: We should know BEFORE the race what everybody intends to do. I'm guessing Uceny and Co.....and Salazar/Cain will both come out with some sort of pronouncment prior to the race!


I realize hyperbole is the forte but I strongly doubt that Cain attempts any sort of a runaway if the pace is slow. Comparing what she would do vs. high schoolers makes no sense and this will be her first run vs. the better open athletes...at least en masse. So I really doubt she does anything other than her usual tactics which would be to run somewhat conservatively early.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby az2004 » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:00 am

Oregon is at penn not drake

Salazar is being inducted into the wall of fame as a hs performer
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Fri Apr 19, 2013 6:11 pm

One small item I've overlooked (or ignored) in my hyperbolic ravings about Cain's chances to run an "A" at Drake is that.......

IF she runs just 4:11.00 (VERY reasonable to expect that this elite field will go no slower than that!!).....

she will have broken her EIGHTH HSR...and seventh this year, indoors and out.

So, putting aside my "predictions" (HOPES!!!) that she'll run 4:05 or better at Drake.....I will be VERY happy to see her get yet ANOTHER HSR....even if only by 0.01 secs!! :D
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Sat Apr 20, 2013 12:36 pm

Laura Roesler ran a PR of 2:01.75, winning the 800 at Mt SAC.
In LAST (9th) place was....."rust-busting" Morgan Uceny, in 2:05.50.
(Splits of 60.71 and 64.79.)

And she's going to give Cain some competition?? :P

I'm JOKING!!
Well, only HALF-joking!!

I DO expect Uceny (and the other elites) will give Mary all the competition she can handle!!
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby az2004 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 5:11 am

I supposen yhe des monies mile will be part of the espn2 8:pm coverage
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby JumboElliott » Sun Apr 21, 2013 9:52 am

What is aaronk going to do when Mary inevitably has a shitty race?
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Sun Apr 21, 2013 9:59 am

JumboElliott wrote:What is aaronk going to do when Mary inevitably has a shitty race?


After sobbing and banging my head against the wall for three hours ( :P )...

I'll SAY she ran a "shitty race".......

and move on to the next......

where she'll run a GREAT one!! :D
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Mon Apr 22, 2013 6:09 pm

A couple of things.

1. I don't know how to "split" a thread. But on the "Outdoor Outlook--High School" thread are several posts about Cain....and the race at Drake. Would someone who knows how please move those comments and posts over to this thread?? Thank you.

2. I've gotten into a communication with Mary....through her Facebook page.
She wrote me, saying she can't "friend" me, as Facebook won't allow her to do that.....but she asked me to tell everyone I know that she wants to get 1000's of people to "like" her FB page.
She just started it last month, it appears, and has just under 100 "likes" so far.

It's a great page....with lots of comments to...and from...her...with lots of photos, etc.

She seems to really LOVE the sport......and running....and sounds very enthusiastic about Drake.
(She tweeted that she's going for the "A" there!!)

So if you're interested.....go to her FB page (Mary Cain-Athlete), and "like" it.

I told her about the T&FN Message Board....saying there were several threads about her.
Don't know if she'll post here someday....but I hope so. :D
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:31 am

With the word out that Cain IS going to shoot for the "A" here (She tweeted her intentions!)....the remaining questions are:

Who else among this elite group of American women is going to join Mary in her quest?
And will there be a pacer??

I can't imagine Uceny, Simpson, Rowbury et al will just let Mary run off by herself....even as someone to draft behind.
So I assume at least one of them will ALSO go for the "A".

If they're alone (no pacer), then hopefully, they'll trade off the lead....with Simpson, say, leading one lap, Cain another, and so on.

With a pacer, of course, the attempt will be made easier....for all concerned!

Ooooooooo, I can't wait!! :shock:
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby lionelp1 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:57 am

I am guessing a win for somebody in 4.13.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:06 pm

lionelp1 wrote:I am guessing a win for somebody in 4.13.


If these women.....Cain included.....don't take full advantage of having such a class field to race against.....
ESPECIALLY for those.....again including Cain!.......who have never run 4:05.50 before.....
then IF/WHEN they fail to GET that "A" in another race.....
they'll have only themselves to blame!!

If they try....and fail.....well, at least they TRIED!!

I just can't imagine all these women accepting....and participating in.....a 4:13-type race!!

I'm predicting at least THREE of these women......and I DO include Cain among them!!......will run 4:05.50 or faster!!
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby ExRun » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:16 pm

Also running 800M on May 5th http://www.rerunsandiego.com/meet-schedule/
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:23 pm

Also in that meet is a women's mile as well as a 5k road race and other stuff; so see the aforementioned link.
[so much for my excess cluttering :wink:
Last edited by 26mi235 on Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:38 pm

ExRun wrote:Also running 800M on May 5th http://www.rerunsandiego.com/meet-schedule/
26mi235 wrote:Also in that meet is a women's mile as well as a 5k road race:

10:20AM - Women's ElliptiGO Mile
Mary Decker Slaney vs. Magda Lewy-Boulet


10:45AM - Men's 800m
Duane Solomon, Lopez Lomong, Boaz Lalang, Geoff Harris, Charles Jock, Ryan Martin, Erik Sowinski, Mark Wieczorek

11:00AM - Women's 800m
Alysia Montano, Geena Gall, Treniere Moser, Chanelle Price, Lynsey Sharp, Phoebe Wright, Brenda Martinez, Sarah Brown, Mary Cain

11:15AM - Men's Mile
David Torrence, Nate Brannen, Ryan Gregson, AJ Acosta, Peter van Der Westhuizen, Pablo Solares, Donn Cabral, Cam Levins, Travis Mahoney, Jordan McNamara, Zane Robertson, Tommy Schmitz


GH has warned me (and everyone) to keep each thread about ONLY that topic!1
While this San Diego meet sounds FANTASTIC......please split it off to a new thread!!

This one is about the Women's 1500 at Drake.....ONLY!!

Thank you! :D
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby rainy.here » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:53 pm

aaronk wrote:GH has warned me (and everyone) to keep each thread about ONLY that topic!1
While this San Diego meet sounds FANTASTIC......please split it off to a new thread!!

This one is about the Women's 1500 at Drake.....ONLY!!

Thank you! :D


Yeah 26mile - obviously your fourteen thousand+ posts in 8 years (and generally helpful/good ones), doesn't give you the right to clutter up aaronk's fan-blog in this thread! : :lol: :lol:
Last edited by rainy.here on Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby gktrack » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:53 pm

Unless she was holding back, I don't see Rowbury in the mix (if at all) after her 6th place 4:45 in the Grand Blue Mile yesterday at Des Moines.
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby BCBaroo » Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:26 pm

puddys12 wrote:Have not seen anything about Mary Cain in the outdoor season yet . Is she not competing and if she is when ?


Perchance you might read the title of the topic of this thread.
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Re: Mary Cain ?

Postby Blues » Wed Apr 24, 2013 2:39 pm

BCBaroo wrote:
puddys12 wrote:Have not seen anything about Mary Cain in the outdoor season yet . Is she not competing and if she is when ?


Perchance you might read the title of the topic of this thread.


In defense of puddys12, puddy's post (and my reply to it, along with a few other replies) were merged into this thread from a different thread by a moderator.
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Re: Mary Cain vs America's Elite at Drake

Postby EPelle » Wed Apr 24, 2013 11:28 pm

gktrack wrote:Unless she was holding back, I don't see Rowbury in the mix (if at all) after her 6th place 4:45 in the Grand Blue Mile yesterday at Des Moines.

Shannon Rowbury, on Facebook wrote:I wore every layer I had but the cold still got to me. I had fun but fingers crossed for a better race on Friday!
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