4 to get to 40!


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4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:33 am

There is an American "fraternity" of sorts that is expected to claim its 400th member this outdoor season (it presently has 396, scratch that, 397). It has had extraordinary little impact on the International outdoor stage and can barely claim a handful of medals; less than 10% of its members have ever even made a USA Team.

Conversely, there is another American event fraternity that only has 36 members. Every member, except one, of this fraternity has made a USA Olympic or World Championship team. And, almost every member of this fraternity has an Olympic or World Championship medal. Some even have had World Records. Needless to say, this fraternity is recognized universally. The average age that fraternity members of this event achieved their PB is 24.8, which should extinguish the old canard that athletes "peak" at age 27 or 28.

List of current members
    2 9.69 2.0 Tyson GAY 09 AUG 1982 (27)
    6 9.79 0.1 Maurice GREENE 23 JUL 1974 (24)
    6 9.79 1.5 Justin GATLIN 10 FEB 1982 (30)
    11 9.85 1.2 Leroy BURRELL 21 FEB 1967 (27)
    11 9.85 1.3 Mike RODGERS 24 APR 1985 (26)
    15 9.86 1.2 Carl LEWIS 01 JUL 1961 (30)
    22 9.88 1.8 Shawn CRAWFORD 14 JAN 1978 (26)
    22 9.88 1.0 Walter DIX 31 JAN 1986 (24)
    22 9.88 0.9 Ryan BAILEY 13 APR 1989 (21)
    26 9.89 1.6 Travis PADGETT 13 DEC 1986 (21)
    26 9.89 1.6 Darvis PATTON 04 DEC 1977 (30)
    29 9.91 1.2 Dennis MITCHELL 20 FEB 1966 (25)
    29 9.91 0.9 Leonard SCOTT 19 JAN 1980 (26)
    34 9.92 0.3 Andre CASON 20 JAN 1969 (24)
    34 9.92 0.8 Jon DRUMMOND 09 SEP 1968 (28)
    34 9.92 0.2 Tim MONTGOMERY 28 JAN 1975 (22)
    34 9.92 1.0 Tim HARDEN 27 JAN 1974 (25)
    40 9.93 A 1.4 Calvin SMITH 08 JAN 1961 (22)
    40 9.93 -0.6 Michael MARSH 04 AUG 1967 (24)
    40 9.93 1.1 Ivory WILLIAMS 02 MAY 1985 (24)
    45 9.94 -0.2 Bernard WILLIAMS 19 JAN 1978 (23)
    47 9.95 A 0.3 Jim HINES 10 SEP 1946 (22)
    47 9.95 0.8 Vincent HENDERSON 20 OCT 1972 (25)
    47 9.95 1.8 Joshua J. JOHNSON 10 MAY 1976 (25)
    47 9.95 1.8 John CAPEL 27 OCT 1978 (25)
    47 9.95 1.6 Rodney MARTIN 22 DEC 1982 (25)
    47 9.95 -0.8 Trell KIMMONS 13 JUL 1985 (25)
    57 9.96 0.1 Melvin LATTANY 10 AUG 1959 (24)
    57 9.96 0.0 Wallace SPEARMON 24 DEC 1984 (22)
    57 9.96 1.4 Harry ADAMS 27 NOV 1989 (22)
    63 9.97 1.3 Rakieem SALAAM 05 APR 1990 (21)
    68 9.98 0.4 Coby MILLER 19 OCT 1976 (23)
    75 9.99 0.5 Brian LEWIS 05 DEC 1974 (27)
    75 9.99 1.5 Mickey GRIMES 10 OCT 1976 (26)
    75 9.99 1.0 Marcus BRUNSON 24 APR 1978 (28)
    75 9.99 1.6 Mark JELKS 10 APR 1984 (24)

If it wasn't so comparatively easy to join the considerably larger fraternity it would be a good bet to see which group would be the first to add 4 members this spring; however, there is a very good chance that the smaller group could add 4 members before the larger group. The American sprinters most likely to join the much the more elite fraternity this spring, imo, are (based upon previous years results of course):

-Charles Silmon
-Keenan Brock
-Marcus Rowland
-Cordero Gray
-Prezel Hardy
-Zye Boey
-Aaron Earnest
-Dentarius Locke
Last edited by batonless relay on Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:21 am

sub-4:00 is currently at 397, not 396

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1476
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:25 am

gh wrote:sub-4:00 is currently at 397, not 396

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1476

396, 397, it's not like it's significant internationally... Anyway...corrected.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby Pego » Wed Apr 03, 2013 11:56 am

Batonless relay, I just want to thank you for all the knowledge you shared here over all those years. You sure can be impressive.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:04 pm

batonless relay wrote:
gh wrote:sub-4:00 is currently at 397, not 396

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1476

396, 397, it's not like it's significant internationally... Anyway...corrected.


But it is germane to the 'race between 400 sub-4:00s and 40 sub-10s :)
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:36 pm

26mi235 wrote:
batonless relay wrote:
gh wrote:sub-4:00 is currently at 397, not 396

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1476

396, 397, it's not like it's significant internationally... Anyway...corrected.


But it is germane to the 'race between 400 sub-4:00s and 40 sub-10s :)

You're absolutely right. I was being a little too snarky about the mile and sub-4.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:01 pm

This thread got me going!
I keep Top 24 lists of performers.
But within those top 24 are numerous shorter lists of "barrier breaking" times, heights, and distances.
No names (for now), just numbers.
All the marks are OUTdoors!!
(The men's 100 has already been done, so I'll skip that.)

Men

sub-20.00 200........24
sub- 44.00 400........9
sub-1:44.00 800.....14
sub-3:33.00 1500...11
sub-3:50 1 mile.....6
sub-7:40 3K.........15
sub-8:20 2 mile.....14
sub-13:00 5K........6
sub-27:00 10K.......2
sub-27:30 10K.......11
sub-2:10 mar........16 (all courses)
sub-8:10 SC......... 4
sub-8:20 SC..........23
sub-13.00 110H.....10
sub-48.00 400H.....19
7-8 HJ................17
28-0 LJ...............7
57-0 TJ.............. 13
19-2 PV...............17
72-0 SP...............12
220-0 DT.............20
275-0 JT.............6
250 HT...............10
8500 Dec.............9

Women

sub-10.90 100......17
sub-22.00 200......9
sub-50.00 400......17
sub-1:58.00 800....12
sub-4:00 1500......5
sub-4:25.00 mile...9
sub-8:40.0 3K.......11
sub-9:30.0 2 mile...2
sub-15.00 5K........12
sub-31:00 10K.......3
sub-31:30 10K.......14
sub-2:25 mar........4 (all courses)
sub-9:30 SC..........6
sub-12.50 100H......10
sub-54.00 400H......10
6-6 HJ.................8
23-0 LJ................7
47-0 TJ................4
15-0 PV................15
60-0 SP................20
200-0 DT..............21
200-0 JT..............4
230-0 HT..............13
6300 Hept.............14
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:04 pm

26mi235 wrote:
batonless relay wrote:
gh wrote:sub-4:00 is currently at 397, not 396

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1476

396, 397, it's not like it's significant internationally... Anyway...corrected.


But it is germane to the 'race between 400 sub-4:00s and 40 sub-10s :)


the difference between a mile list and a 100 list is that you know the mile list probably doesn't have any marks on it that were achieved through the aid of wind and/or altitude and/or questionable starting.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:10 pm

gh wrote:
26mi235 wrote:
batonless relay wrote:
gh wrote:sub-4:00 is currently at 397, not 396

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1476

396, 397, it's not like it's significant internationally... Anyway...corrected.


But it is germane to the 'race between 400 sub-4:00s and 40 sub-10s :)


the difference between a mile list and a 100 list is that you know the mile list probably doesn't have any marks on it that were achieved through the aid of wind and/or altitude and/or questionable starting.


Haven't checked the whole list, but doesn't the 397 include INDOOR times as well as outdoor?
Not to mention indoor times run on OT's!!

If there were an OUTDOOR ONLY list.....no indoors, OT or not, included......what would the number be??
(And of course, no relay splits, and no converted 1600 times, if there are any!)
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby Marlow » Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:13 pm

Pego wrote:Batonless relay, I just want to thank you for all the knowledge you shared here over all those years.

Oooooooh, how did I not see that? Splains everything . . .
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 5:26 pm

aaronk wrote:If there were an OUTDOOR ONLY list.....no indoors, OT or not, included......what would the number be??!)


The number would be irrelevant. Those OT tracks which are not used for Indoor records are certainly no more advantageous than the full 400m outdoor tracks. Since indoor tracks are not generally thought to be faster than outdoor 400m tracks, there is no reason at all to discount them (after all we are not leaving out marks made on Thursdays either). Of course, the reason that a number of runners get their marks indoors is that NCAA runs miles indoors (versus primarily 1500s outdoors).

Now, maybe we should add 4:01.5 marks done on flat indoor tracks ( :lol: )
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 18.99s » Wed Apr 03, 2013 7:19 pm

26mi235 wrote:But it is germane to the 'race between 400 sub-4:00s and 40 sub-10s :)

As Germane as Jackson. That's Jacksun if you're nasty.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:01 pm

[quote="aaronk....
(And of course, no relay splits, and no converted 1600 times, if there are any!)[/quote]

Have you ever thought of actually looking at the introduction to the list to see just what's there before you pop off?
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby aaronk » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:34 pm

gh wrote:[quote="aaronk....
(And of course, no relay splits, and no converted 1600 times, if there are any!)


Have you ever thought of actually looking at the introduction to the list to see just what's there before you pop off?[/quote]

Okay, I took your advice.
And found some interesting stats while I was at it.

Of the 397 milers listed, 143 of them ran that 1st sub-4:00 INDOORS!!
Thus, if, like me, you totally separate indoors from outdoors, there have been just 254 milers who ran their first sub-4:00 on an OUTDOOR track!!

And 2010 was the year when, of the 20 1st time sub-4:00's, 18 of them were run INDOORS.....and TEN of those were run on Seattle's OT!!

I totally accept the fact that I'm a "lone voice in the wilderness" on this subject.
So be it!!
But those are the FACTS, Ma'am!!
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:17 pm

of course most of the modern ones are indoors; the mile is an NCAA event indoors, but not outdoors.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gktrack » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:51 pm

batonless relay wrote:... The American sprinters most likely to join the much the more elite fraternity this spring, imo, are (based upon previous years results of course):

-Charles Silmon
-Keenan Brock
-Marcus Rowland
-Cordero Gray
-Prezel Hardy
-Zye Boey
-Aaron Earnest
-Dentarius Locke


Back to the original subject... I'd certainly add to your list:
- Jeff Demps, who's supposedly concentrating on track once again after earning a Oly relay silver medal, holds the HS record at 10.01, a 10.10 in 2012, and 7th place in '12 OlyTrial finals.
- Maurice Mitchell who's training with a good sprint group now, had a legal 10.00 in 2011, and followed it with a 10.03 in 2012.
- Also, if he has a reasonable focus on track in his college career, I see Marvin Bracy breaking 10 flat as well after running a good 60 indoors this past indoor season and some fast (although windy) HS times.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fsu-seminoles/blog/os-cb-florida-state-seminoles-fsu-marvin-bracy-spring-20130330,0,5294353.post
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby Master Po » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:49 am

Pego wrote:Batonless relay, I just want to thank you for all the knowledge you shared here over all those years. You sure can be impressive.


Ditto -- appreciated.

And continuing with the topic of this thread: As this is an event I don't follow as closely as others, you mentioned above that one of these 36 has not made a WC or OG team. Can you post which one of the 36 that is?

Thanks! :)
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:03 am

Master Po wrote:
Pego wrote:Batonless relay, I just want to thank you for all the knowledge you shared here over all those years. You sure can be impressive.


Ditto -- appreciated.

And continuing with the topic of this thread: As this is an event I don't follow as closely as others, you mentioned above that one of these 36 has not made a WC or OG team. Can you post which one of the 36 that is?

Thanks! :)

Alright, it looks like I was WAY off. :oops: I initially glanced at the list and only thought it was Vincent Henderson. After further investigation, to find who else may have been erroneously included, I found this.

47 9.95 0.8 Vincent HENDERSON 20 OCT 1972 (25) - Univeristy Team
57 9.96 1.4 Harry ADAMS 27 NOV 1989 (22)
75 9.99 1.5 Mickey GRIMES 10 OCT 1976 (26) - He made a Pan Am Team with some notoriety
75 9.99 1.0 Marcus BRUNSON 24 APR 1978 (28) - University Team



gktrack wrote:Back to the original subject... I'd certainly add to your list:
- Jeff Demps, who's supposedly concentrating on track once again after earning a Oly relay silver medal, holds the HS record at 10.01, a 10.10 in 2012, and 7th place in '12 OlyTrial finals.
- Maurice Mitchell who's training with a good sprint group now, had a legal 10.00 in 2011, and followed it with a 10.03 in 2012.
- Also, if he has a reasonable focus on track in his college career, I see Marvin Bracy breaking 10 flat as well after running a good 60 indoors this past indoor season and some fast (although windy) HS times.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/fsu-seminoles/blog/os-cb-florida-state-seminoles-fsu-marvin-bracy-spring-20130330,0,5294353.post

I didn't include Bracy, though he was one of the first that I thought of, because he said that he was playing spring football this year. And the same goes for Demps if he is trying to play NFL ball in the fall. Mitchell was an another obvious choice that should have made the list. Period. When you consider the meets in the Caribbean (Martinique, Guadelupe, Puerto Rico, Nassau, Kingston and Grand Cayman) and the US outdoor meets the chances are good that some of these guys might just run a sub-10.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Thu Apr 04, 2013 5:33 am

Pego wrote:Batonless relay, I just want to thank you for all the knowledge you shared here over all those years. You sure can be impressive.

Thanks! :wink: I'll do my best to live up to your compliment.

One more thing: the whole athletes peaking at 27/28 has always bothered me (Usain Bolt says it all the time; and says his coach has told him that. Aaarrgh!) and the evidence (at least from the small samples I've looked at) does not bear it out. Listed below*, again, are the ages of the Americans when they set their PB's (which is one standard of peaking...though it could also be consistency but I don't have NEARLY enough data for that) and of the 36 on the list, only 8 were set AFTER age 26. Clearly there are athletes who have set PB's beyond 26 and even beyond 30, but if I had to guess, by the numbers, of where young sprinters peak...it would be age 24/25. Now, this really screws up my prediction that Usain Bolt is going to break the WR this summer in the 100/200 if this is ironclad (gladly, it ain't). There is one more interesting take-away from these numbers and it's something that USA sprinting should be VERY concerned about. If the peak is closer to 24/25 than it is to 27/28 (or beyond) then the NCAA system may be obsolete in terms of preparing Americans for sprinting against Jamaicans and French (who are going immediately to pro coaches). The top sprinters may need to get with the best coaches earlier (17/18/19) and not at 21/22/23 after their eligibility has been exhausted.

*(21, 21, 21, 22, 22, 22, 22, 22, 23, 23, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 26, 26, 26, 26, 27, 27, 27, 28, 28, 30, 30, 30)
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby aaronk » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:33 am

Did more research into the sub-4:00 1st-time milers list.
Here's how many ran their first sub 4:00's at various speeds.
I goofed somewhere, and my count comes to only 396.
I believe the missed one is from the slower categories, so add one there if you wish.
I included ALL the times, including indoors and OT's!!

Number of runners who ran their 1st sub-4:00 between.......

3:59.00 and 3:59.99---201
3:58.00 and 3:58.99---118
3:57.00 and 3:57.99---45
3:56.00 and 3:56.99---21
3:55.00 and 3:55.99---5
3:54.00 and 3:54.99---2
3:53.00 and 3:53.99---3

3:48.00 and 3:48.99---1

The fastest is Syd Maree, who ran 3:48.83.
However, that was only his first race as an AMERICAN!! He'd run a few before that as a South African!

The fastest of the others was Steve Holman's 3:53.31 on July 4, 1992.

If you remember, Peter Snell's 1st sub-4:00 was his WR of 3:54.4 on January 27, 1962.
His previous best was 4:01+.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby Grasshopper » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:11 pm

Comparing your list to the legal-100m list on alltime-athletics.com I found a couple of Americans who you seem to have missed.

349 9.96 0.8 Kareem Streete-Thompson USA 30.03.73 2h3 Indianapolis 12.06.1997
407 9.97 0.8 Phil DeRosier USA 11.04.84 1 Holmdel 16.06.2012

That should bring the total to 38.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 18.99s » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:15 pm

Looking at the ages of the sub-9.90 crew, the average goes up to 26.

The two youngest on the sub-9.90 list, at age 21, are Ryan Bailey and Travis Padgett. I definitely expect Bailey to improve his PB before retiring, and Padgett is also young enough and active enough to have a decent shot at doing the same.

So if we're talking about the cream of the crop, the peak seems to be more like 26/27 than 24/25.

For those in the 9.90-9.99 range whose PB didn't improve after 23, with some of them it's because of a change in their coaching situation (e.g. leaving college) or moving on to something else like football, not because their bodies were too "old" to accomplish further improvement.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:22 pm

I'd be interested in seeing the age numbers for non-Americans (particularly Europeans), given how the U.S. system is fairly unique in being set up to reward you when you're young (with college scholarship) and then set you adrift, whereas the national/club systems elsewhere give athltes a better chance to come to full fruition.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:45 pm

Thanks, grasshopper. I missed desrosier completely because I thought that time was not valid; I didn't realize it was allowed (even though he was allowed to run at USATF, iirc), but KST is unique in that he was CAY than USA than CAY. In short: you're right, he should have been included.

18.99s wrote:Looking at the ages of the sub-9.90 crew, the average goes up to 26.

The two youngest on the sub-9.90 list, at age 21, are Ryan Bailey and Travis Padgett. I definitely expect Bailey to improve his PB before retiring, and Padgett is also young enough and active enough to have a decent shot at doing the same.

So if we're talking about the cream of the crop, the peak seems to be more like 26/27 than 24/25.

For those in the 9.90-9.99 range whose PB didn't improve after 23, with some of them it's because of a change in their coaching situation (e.g. leaving college) or moving on to something else like football, not because their bodies were too "old" to accomplish further improvement.

Gotta disagree. Maurice Greene set his PB at 24, Coby Miller at 23 and Dennis Mitchell set his at 25...there is no guarantee that either Padgett, who has been woefully off his Eugene "breath of god" one-off, or Bailey will improve. Especially since they've crossed the 9.90 threshold. Also, the average age of the people I listed is 24.8. If you take out Bailey and Padgett -for arguments sake- the average rises to 25.02. Even the median is 25. Mel Lattany*, Tim Montgomery, Calvin Smith, Michael Marsh, Bernard Williams and Jim Hines weren't "cream of the crop"? Let's not go there.

*Lattany is also one who never made a US team.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:28 pm

I took out Troy Douglas, but not because he wasn't born in NED (didn't want to rehash the ancient). I included the Japanese for kicks and kept out the Africans and other Asians (QAT), though I think KAZ is now in Asia. Anyway, below you find 43 athletes 10.10 or better and Christie, Martina, Ndure, Woronin, Ito, Asahara, Mennea, Devonish, Collio and Moen being the ones who were at or above 27. A veritable who's who of European sprinting (minus Lemaitre). That makes 33 of the athletes below 27. The under-27 wins by a landslide.

20 9.87 0.3 Linford CHRISTIE 02 APR 1960 (33)  GBR
29 9.91 0.7 Churandy MARTINA 03 JUL 1984 (28)  NED
34 9.92 2 Christophe LEMAITRE 11 JUN 1990 (21)  FRA
63 9.97 0.2 Dwain CHAMBERS 05 APR 1978 (21)  GBR
63 9.97 ( ) Mark LEWIS-FRANCIS 04 SEP 1982 (18)  GBR
68 9.98 0.4 Jason GARDENER 18 SEP 1975 (23)  GBR
75 9.99 1.8 Ronald POGNON 16 NOV 1982 (22)  FRA
75 9.99 1 Jaysuma SAIDY NDURE 01 JAN 1984 (27)  NOR
85 10.00 2.0 Marian WORONIN 13 AUG 1956 (27)  POL
85 10.00 1.9 Koji ITO 29 JAN 1970 (28)  JPN
95 10.01 A 0.9 Pietro MENNEA 28 JUN 1952 (27)  ITA
101 10.02 0.7 Daniel SANGOUMA 07 FEB 1965 (25)  FRA
101 10.02 2.0 Nobuharu ASAHARA 21 JUN 1972 (29)  JPN
101 10.02 -0.1 Jimmy VICAUT 27 FEB 1992 (20)  FRA
111 10.03 1.8 Shingo SUETSUGU 02 JUN 1980 (22)  JPN
111 10.03 1.6 Simeon WILLIAMSON 16 JAN 1986 (22)  GBR
122 10.04 0.3 Darren CAMPBELL 12 SEP 1973 (24)  GBR
132 10.05 0.1 Adam GEMILI 06 OCT 1993 (18)  GBR
140 10.06 1.9 Frank EMMELMANN 15 SEP 1961 (24)  GER
140 10.06 1.3 Marlon DEVONISH 01 JUN 1976 (31)  GBR
140 10.06 0.7 Tyrone EDGAR 29 MAR 1982 (26)  GBR
140 10.06 1.7 Martial MBANDJOCK 14 OCT 1985 (22)  FRA
140 10.06 1.2 Simone COLLIO 27 DEC 1979 (29)  ITA
166 10.07 0.0 Valeriy BORZOV 20 OCT 1949 (22)  UKR
166 10.07 1.9 Masashi ERIGUCHI 17 DEC 1988 (20)  JPN
166 10.07 1.3 Ryota YAMAGATA 10 JUN 1992 (20)  JPN
189 10.08 1.3 Vitaliy SAVIN 23 JAN 1966 (26)  KAZ
189 10.08 0.6 Geir MOEN 26 JUN 1969 (27)  NOR
189 10.08 0.7 Carlo BOCCARINI 02 JUN 1976 (21)  ITA
189 10.08 1.0 Roland NÉMETH 19 SEP 1974 (24)  HUN
189 10.08 1.3 Ramil GULIYEV 29 MAY 1990 (19)  AZE
206 10.09 1.3 Antoine RICHARD 08 SEP 1960 (25)  FRA
206 10.09 1.5 Max MORINIÉRE 16 FEB 1964 (23)  FRA
206 10.09 0.3 Attila KOVÁCS 02 SEP 1960 (26)  HUN
206 10.09 1.7 Jason LIVINGSTON 17 MAR 1971 (21)  GBR
206 10.09 1.2 Sergiy OSOVYCH 16 DEC 1973 (22)  UKR
206 10.09 Christian MALCOLM 03 JUN 1979 (22)  GBR
206 10.09 0.9 James DASAOLU 05 SEP 1987 (21)  GBR
206 10.09 1.8 Naoki TSUKAHARA 10 MAY 1985 (24)  JPN
206 10.09 0.7 Julian REUS 29 APR 1988 (24)  GER
232 10.10 1.8 Thomas SCHRÖDER 23 AUG 1962 (23)  GDR
232 10.10 1.3 Andrey EPISHIN 10 JUN 1981 (25)  RUS
232 10.10 1.4 Harry AIKINES-ARYEETEY 29 AUG 1988 (20)  GBR
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby Grasshopper » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:40 pm

gh wrote:I'd be interested in seeing the age numbers for non-Americans (particularly Europeans), given how the U.S. system is fairly unique in being set up to reward you when you're young (with college scholarship) and then set you adrift, whereas the national/club systems elsewhere give athltes a better chance to come to full fruition.

According to the legal-100m list on the alltime-athletics.com site, there are 84 men who've broken 10-seconds. Comparing their ages when running their first sub-10 time I find the following:
Overall Average Age (all 84 men): 23.9 years
USA Average Age (38 men): 24.2 years
Non-USA Average Age (46 men): 23.7 years
European Average Age (5 men): 23.2 years

Also:
Youngest to run 1st sub-10: Seun Ogunkoya (NGR) - 19.6 years (born 12/28/77, 9.97 on 7/13/97)
Oldest to run 1st sub-10: Patrick Johnson (AUS) - 30.7 years (born 9/26/72, ran 9.93 on 5/5/03)
Fasterst 1st sub-10: Usain Bolt (JAM) - 9.76
Countries with sub-10 performers: 21
- USA 38
- JAM 12
- NGR 7
- TRI 5
- GBR 3
- CAN 2
- FRA 2
- GHA 2
- ANT 1
- AUS 1
- BAH 1
- BAR 1
- CAY 1
- CUB 1
- NAM 1
- NED 1
- NOR 1
- POR 1
- QAT 1
- SKN 1
- ZIM 1
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 18.99s » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:46 pm

batonless relay wrote:Gotta disagree. Maurice Greene set his PB at 24, Coby Miller at 23 and Dennis Mitchell set his at 25...there is no guarantee that either Padgett, who has been woefully off his Eugene "breath of god" one-off, or Bailey will improve.

There's also no guarantee that neither will improve. So it's too early to declare a peak for either.

If you take out Bailey and Padgett -for arguments sake- the average rises to 25.02.

Take them out of the sub-9.90 group, and the average age of the sub-9.9ers goes up to 27.1.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 18.99s » Thu Apr 04, 2013 1:51 pm

batonless relay wrote:I took out Troy Douglas, but not because he wasn't born in NED (didn't want to rehash the ancient). I included the Japanese for kicks and kept out the Africans and other Asians (QAT), though I think KAZ is now in Asia. Anyway, below you find 43 athletes 10.10 or better and Christie, Martina, Ndure, Woronin, Ito, Asahara, Mennea, Devonish, Collio and Moen being the ones who were at or above 27. A veritable who's who of European sprinting (minus Lemaitre). That makes 33 of the athletes below 27. The under-27 wins by a landslide.

20 9.87 0.3 Linford CHRISTIE 02 APR 1960 (33)  GBR
29 9.91 0.7 Churandy MARTINA 03 JUL 1984 (28)  NED
34 9.92 2 Christophe LEMAITRE 11 JUN 1990 (21)  FRA
63 9.97 0.2 Dwain CHAMBERS 05 APR 1978 (21)  GBR
63 9.97 ( ) Mark LEWIS-FRANCIS 04 SEP 1982 (18)  GBR


Look at the age of the only one on that list to run sub-9.90 -- 33 years old.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:00 pm

sub-9.90 is the criteria, now? :lol: Come on! If you looked at the Jamaicans you would find that ALL under 10, except for Frater, did it before their 27th birthday. Christie even sticks out among his GBR brethren (or bredrin for Christie) who probably don't average 24.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Thu Apr 04, 2013 2:03 pm

Grasshopper wrote:Comparing your list to the legal-100m list on alltime-athletics.com I found a couple of Americans who you seem to have missed.

349 9.96 0.8 Kareem Streete-Thompson USA 30.03.73 2h3 Indianapolis 12.06.1997
407 9.97 0.8 Phil DeRosier USA 11.04.84 1 Holmdel 16.06.2012

That should bring the total to 38.


given that DeRosier's best in a mainstream meet is 10.17, I think you'll find most statisticians putting his 9.97 under the "questionable timing" section. You had it right the first time.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Apr 04, 2013 7:46 pm

Economist use a measure called the 'four-firm concentration ratio to judge the concentration in an industry or industry segment (often involved in Anti-Trust rulings, etc). Here the 4-Nation ration is .74 (74% of the total). However, if you go to sub-9.90 you get almost 100%.

Also, in that list above with marks of 10.10 or better, only a few are better than 10.00 Basic. In addition, there is not a single mark with a wind less than -0.1, and the average wind is about 1. (Neither are there altitude adjustments here.)
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Fri Apr 05, 2013 6:11 am

26, are you talking about the American list or the European list? And, technically it doesn't matter because as I stated in the beginning, we're operating off of very limited data points. What you're suggesting is highly technical, and to be honest, highly superfluous, imo. We would have to know all of the athletes 100m races, and then correct each for wind and altitude and lastly mark down the age when that "windless", "altitude-less" extrapolation of the actual performance occurred - and my guess is that it would LOWER the age, not raise it. Remember, we're talking about the age when sprinters peak. That's it. And looking at the European and American Lists that number is before age 26. If you look a the top 10 Jamaicans ever (Miller, Quarrie, Stewart, Powell, Bolt, Carter, Blake, Frater, Ashmeade, Forsythe) you see the same thing - only problem with the Jamaicans is that 7 of the 10 are still active. But if history is a guide and it is in nearly everything, certainly economics, then very few of the Jamaicans will improve after age 26.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Fri Apr 05, 2013 6:36 am

Now, when I glance at the women's list, I definitely get the sense that women peak later. How this contrasts with men COULD be due to natural testosterone production in men peaking pre-20's, but there are far better qualified people on this board than me to address that aspect.

Women's list
Code: Select all
1   10.49   0.0   Florence GRIFFITH-JOYNER   21 DEC 1959 (28)   Indianapolis, IN   16-Jul-88
2   10.64   1.2   Carmelita JETER   24 NOV 1979 (29)   Shanghai   20-Sep-09
3   10.65 A   1.1   Marion JONES   12 OCT 1975 (22)   Johannesburg   12-Sep-98
8   10.76   1.7   Evelyn ASHFORD   15 APR 1957 (27)   Zürich   22-Aug-84
12   10.78 A   1.0   Dawn SOWELL   27 MAR 1966 (23)   Provo, UT   3-Jun-89
12   10.78   1.8   Torri EDWARDS   31 JAN 1977 (31)   Eugene, OR   28-Jun-08
14   10.79   -0.1   Inger MILLER   12 JUN 1972 (27)   Sevilla   22-Aug-99
17   10.82   -1.0   Gail DEVERS   19 NOV 1966 (25)   Barcelona   1-Aug-92
17   10.82   0.4   Gwen TORRENCE   12 JUN 1965 (29)   Paris   3-Sep-94
21   10.83   0.0   Sheila ECHOLS   02 OCT 1964 (23)   Indianapolis, IN   16-Jul-88
28   10.85   1.0   Muna LEE   30 OCT 1981 (26)   Eugene, OR   28-Jun-08
28   10.85   1.5   Tianna MADISON   30 AUG 1985 (26)   London (OS)   4-Aug-12
31   10.86   0.0   Diane WILLIAMS   14 DEC 1960 (27)   Indianapolis, IN   16-Jul-88
31   10.86   1.2   Chryste GAINES   14 SEP 1970 (33)   Monaco   14-Sep-03
31   10.86   2.0   Marshevet MYERS   25 SEP 1984 (26)   Eugene, OR   4-Jun-11
35   10.88   0.4   Lauryn WILLIAMS   11 SEP 1983 (21)   Zürich   19-Aug-05
36   10.89   1.5   Allyson FELIX   18 NOV 1985 (26)   London (OS)   4-Aug-12
39   10.90   1.8   Shalonda SOLOMON   19 DEC 1985 (24)   Clermont, FL   5-Jun-10
44   10.92   0.0   Alice BROWN   20 SEP 1960 (27)   Indianapolis, IN   16-Jul-88
44   10.92   1.1   D'Andre HILL   19 APR 1973 (23)   Atlanta, GA   15-Jun-96
50   10.94   1.0   Carlette GUIDRY-WHITE   04 SEP 1968 (22)   New York, NY   14-Jun-91
51   10.95   2.0   Me'Lisa BARBER   04 OCT 1980 (26)   Carson, CA   20-May-07
54   10.96   1.9   Kimberlyn DUNCAN   02 AUG 1991 (20)   Baton Rouge, LA   13-May-12
59   10.97   0.1   LaTasha COLANDER   23 AUG 1976 (27)   Sacramento, CA   10-Jul-04
59   10.97   -0.7   Sanya RICHARDS-ROSS   26 FEB 1985 (22)   Shanghai   28-Sep-07
59   10.97   1.8   Mechelle LEWIS   20 SEP 1980 (27)   Eugene, OR   27-Jun-08
59   10.97   1.2   LaShauntea MOORE   31 JUL 1983 (26)   Maringá   30-May-10
70   10.99   1.3   Valerie BRISCO-HOOKS   06 JUL 1960 (25)   Westwood, CA   17-May-86
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 6:41 am

I am aware that handling all of that data manipulation is a lot of work, with not always consistently available information. However, it is not " highly superfluous", it is more precise as a measure of the marks, although not a unique or necessarily the best measure.

As for the 4-country concentration ratio, when I saw the data the similarity with that index struck me immediately, it is something that is used in important legal settings, and it is probably not well-known here. The highest concentration figures are probably in the steeple and the marathon, although the 10,000 might be pretty high as well. One way to look at different events might be to look at this measure for the top X (e.g., 100, 50, etc) marks in each event and see which ones are most evenly distributed and which are most concentrated.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Fri Apr 05, 2013 6:48 am

26mi235 wrote:I am aware that handling all of that data manipulation is a lot of work, with not always consistently available information. However, it is not " highly superfluous", it is more precise as a measure of the marks, although not a unique or necessarily the best measure.

As for the 4-country concentration ratio, when I saw the data the similarity with that index struck me immediately, it is something that is used in important legal settings, and it is probably not well-known here. The highest concentration figures are probably in the steeple and the marathon, although the 10,000 might be pretty high as well. One way to look at different events might be to look at this measure for the top X (e.g., 100, 50, etc) marks in each event and see which ones are most evenly distributed and which are most concentrated.

You're going to have to explain that a bit more...WAY over my level. Concentration by country in the top 50, 100? Concentration by age in the top 50, 100? or both? or neither?
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Apr 05, 2013 9:38 am

The 4-country concentration rate is the frequency for those four divided by the frequency for all. If you are taking the top 100, then it would be the fraction of the top 100 that come from those four countries. There is nothing magical about 4 countries, but it often is not a bad value to use for the concentrated subset.

One application would be to calculate, by event, what fraction of the top 50 performers come from the top four countries in each event and then look at the fractions across events and look at how they changed over time. You can use any time interval to define the top X performers; one year is the most natural, but you might also use Olympiads or decades (the longer the interval the deeper I would tend to go).

Batonless relay: Note, none of this is meant to dispute anything that you have been saying in this thread, it is just a potential analysis tool. I might have an advantage in some analytical techniques but you clearly have an advantage in knowledge of the sport and the basic underlying data.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Thu May 23, 2013 7:06 pm

batonless relay wrote:The American sprinters most likely to join the much the more elite fraternity this spring, imo, are (based upon previous years results of course):

-Charles Silmon
-Keenan Brock
-Marcus Rowland
-Cordero Gray
-Prezel Hardy
-Zye Boey
-Aaron Earnest
-Dentarius Locke

Isiah Young, who was NOT on my list, is the newest member of the sub-10 club. Yup, wrong again. :lol:

East finalists?
1 Isiah Young UMS 09.99 +0.3 3 Heat
2 Anaso Jobodwana JKST 10.14 +0.8 6 Heat
3 Diondre Batson UAL 10.16 +0.1 2 Heat
4 Tevin Hester CLEM 10.21 +1.3 4 Heat
5 Aaron Ernest LSU 10.22 +1.9 1 Heat
6 Reggie Lewis CLEM 10.22 +1.9 1 Heat
7 Harry Adams AUB 10.22 +1.4 5 Heat
8 Darrell Wesh VAT 10.23 +1.4 5 Heat
9 Warren Fraser CLEM 10.24 +0.3 3 Heat

West finalists?
1 Silmon, Charles SR TCU 10.03Q 1.7 5
2 Brown, Aaron JR USC 10.11Q 2.0 6
3 Webb, Ameer SR Texas A&M 10.14Q 1.6 1
4 Woodson, Markesh FR Missouri 10.20Q 2.4 2
5 Hardy, Jr., Prezel JR Texas A&M 10.31Q 2.4 3
6 Larney, Josh SR Iowa 10.31Q 0.6 4
7 Austin, Justin SR Iowa 10.22Q 2.4 2
8 Horsley, Carl JR Cal St. Northridge 10.23Q 2.0 6
9 Bryan, Michael JR Texas A&M 10.30Q 1.7 5
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gh » Fri May 24, 2013 8:11 am

the next choice at this point is perhaps Diondre Batson.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby batonless relay » Fri May 24, 2013 9:08 am

gh wrote:the next choice at this point is perhaps Diondre Batson.

I agree. Silmon and Brown would be my next choices.
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Re: 4 to get to 40!

Postby gktrack » Fri May 24, 2013 3:03 pm

Brown is from Canada I believe, but you can replace him with Dentarius Locke (on your initial list) who just PR'ed 10.05 (1.6) in the East Region.
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