From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictions


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From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictions

Postby olorin » Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:43 pm

This winter season we saw a plethora of good results in the Heptathlon, especially among young athletes. No less than nine young (born after 1/1/90) athletes scored over 6,000 points. In comparison, last year only three young athletes achieved the same, whereas in 2011 only two did.
But what do these results suggest for the decathlon? In order to answer this I looked at all athletes that scored more than 5,800 points in the heptathlon in the last three years (2010-2012). Then I examined their mark in the following summer in the decathlon. There are 71 athletes that scored over 5,800. Their average Decathlon result is 2,055 points higher than their Heptathlon.
I further improved this prediction by dividing all athletes into three (even) groups according to the total of their SBs (in the previous year) in the three events that are part of the Decathlon but not the Heptathlon (400, DT and JT).
This leads to the following differences between Decathlon and Heptathlon:
Top (more than 2134 in the three events): add 2292
Middle: (1985-2134): add 2061
Bottom: (less than 1985): add 1813
Using these numbers I predict the result for the decathlon for the nine athletes.
Name, country, Year born, Heptathlon score, projected score (hopefully without too many typos)
Mayer,...... FRA, 92, 6297, 8590
Nixon,...... USA, 93, 6232, 8294
Lazas,....... USA, 92, 6165, 8468
Cato,........ USA, 90, 6165, 7978
Taiwo,...... USA, 90, 6156, 8218
Helecelet... CZE, 91, 6095, 8388
Shkureynov, RUS, 91, 6018, 8310
Scantling,... USA, 93, 6017, 8079
Lukyanenko, RUS, 90, 6008, 8301
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby DecFan » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:57 am

Very intriguing and exciting. Thanks for doing the legwork.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby TimRoy » Tue Apr 02, 2013 5:07 am

Yes, great stuff, Olorin. Some nice speculation on what's to come. It's going to be a fun summer seeing who delivers on their promise.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby unclezadok » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:11 am

I came up with similar marks for Lazas, Nixon, and Scantling using a slightly different method. Given their current rate of improvement, they might exced the projections.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby TimRoy » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:37 am

That would be a massive step forward for Lazas, exceeding 8400. The others' projections pass the eyeball test, but his number really jumps out.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby Marlow » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:58 am

unclezadok wrote:I came up with similar marks for Lazas, Nixon, and Scantling using a slightly different method. Given their current rate of improvement, they might exced the projections.

For Scantling that's a 600 point improvement of his PR! I'm wary of projecting a score that big because it EXPECTS him to continue a meteoric rise. Real-life athletes have to stop and catch their breath every now and again. He will get to 8000 if he stays healthy, but expecting it THIS year is a tall order!
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby gktrack » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:38 am

olorin wrote:Name, country, Year born, Heptathlon score, projected score (hopefully without too many typos)
Nixon,...... USA, 93, 6232, 8294


Nixon certainly progressed nicely this indoor season, and his PR's suggest 8294 is within reach... and I assume he recently left Arkansas and moved to Tulsa to train full time?
http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/2013/03/07/gunnar-nixon-decathlon-career-progressing/

olorin's projected scores/estimates also suggest 5+ US athletes (adding Eaton, Hardee, maybe Beach?) over the 8200 A standard... not sure when was the last time US had such quality decathlon depth
Last edited by gktrack on Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby olorin » Tue Apr 02, 2013 8:52 am

Marlow wrote:
unclezadok wrote:I came up with similar marks for Lazas, Nixon, and Scantling using a slightly different method. Given their current rate of improvement, they might exced the projections.

For Scantling that's a 600 point improvement of his PR! I'm wary of projecting a score that big because it EXPECTS him to continue a meteoric rise. Real-life athletes have to stop and catch their breath every now and again. He will get to 8000 if he stays healthy, but expecting it THIS year is a tall order!

No it isn't projecting meteoric rise, it is simply assuming that he will be able to replicate is winter form to the decathlon.
Compare to 2012 (roughly as I am not next to my computer)
He broke his pb in the DT by 4.5m (90 points)
He broke his pb in the PV by 40cm (120 points)
He broke is pb in the HJ by 3 cm (30 points)
He broke his PB in the 110h by 0.2s (25 points)
He broke his PB in the SP by 70cm (50 points)
He broke his PB in the LJ by 15cm (35 points)
In these six events he already improved by roughly 350 points and we are only in the beginning of April. Come June he will get the missing 250 points. Then it is a question whether he can bring it all together In one decathlon.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby Dave » Tue Apr 02, 2013 11:19 am

Anyone know if Clay is going to compete this summer?
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby unclezadok » Tue Apr 02, 2013 12:15 pm

olorin wrote:
Marlow wrote:
unclezadok wrote:I came up with similar marks for Lazas, Nixon, and Scantling using a slightly different method. Given their current rate of improvement, they might exced the projections.

For Scantling that's a 600 point improvement of his PR! I'm wary of projecting a score that big because it EXPECTS him to continue a meteoric rise. Real-life athletes have to stop and catch their breath every now and again. He will get to 8000 if he stays healthy, but expecting it THIS year is a tall order!

No it isn't projecting meteoric rise, it is simply assuming that he will be able to replicate is winter form to the decathlon.
Compare to 2012 (roughly as I am not next to my computer)
He broke his pb in the DT by 4.5m (90 points)
He broke his pb in the PV by 40cm (120 points)
He broke is pb in the HJ by 3 cm (30 points)
He broke his PB in the 110h by 0.2s (25 points)
He broke his PB in the SP by 70cm (50 points)
He broke his PB in the LJ by 15cm (35 points)
In these six events he already improved by roughly 350 points and we are only in the beginning of April. Come June he will get the missing 250 points. Then it is a question whether he can bring it all together In one decathlon.


For example, his 400m PR is over 51 seconds. I can't believe he won't blow that one out of the water.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby olorin » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:36 am

TimRoy wrote:That would be a massive step forward for Lazas, exceeding 8400. The others' projections pass the eyeball test, but his number really jumps out.

Agree, Lazas scored in the three events (400, DT and JT) was slightly above the cut-off point of the best group. So a better prediction would be to average between the first and the second group for a score of ~8350. This is the price one pays for the simplicity of the prediction method.
The main point of this post however was note to predict the success of individual decathlete but to show that we are one the verge of a new era in decathlon. As gktrack noted this summer 5-6 Americans are likely to get the "A" standard. Behind them there are athletes like Cato, Scantling, Ziemek all with good potential to get the "A" in a year or two. In Europe, Mayers and company are also pushing their ways up the ladder and Warner is another great talent for the future. 8,600 was the benchmark of great permanence with 1-4 athletes achieving this mark in a given year. I believe that by 2015 the number will reach double digits.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby norunner » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:26 am

My sister once told me: "Predictions are like men, often wrong and a waste of time".
I still remember some of the many predictions from last year and i don't think many actually came true. 19.00s for the 200m winner in London was my favourite.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby gktrack » Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:33 am

I like the USA momentum in the decathlon as well, and believe we will see more quality depth in the very near future, as olorin suggests. For comparison, going back to year 2000, the following is the total number of USA athletes over 8000 points (then sub-categorized by those over 8000, 8200, 8400 and 8600).

2012: 3 (1-0-0-2)
2011: 5 (3-0-0-2)
2010: 5 (2-1-2-0)
2009: 4 (1-1-1-1)
2008: 8 (5-0-2-1)
2007: 4 (1-2-1-0)
2006: 4 (1-1-1-1)
2005: 2 (1-0-0-1)
2004: 8 (4-2-0-2)
2003: 5 (2-1-1-1)
2002: 5 (3-1-1-0)
2001: 5 (2-3-0-0)
2000: 5 (3-0-2-0)
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:30 am

63 (29-12-11-11)

A 'fat tail' distribution, for sure.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby TimRoy » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:28 am

Olorin, it would be an unprecedented era, having a dozen athletes at or above 8,600. I'd love to see it, though I fear there'll be the usual attrition due to injury and stunted development. I'd settle for half a dozen.

In terms of recent years, here's the number of 8,600 men, as per the IAAF lists:

2012: 2
2011: 2
2010: 0
2009: 2
2008: 1
2007: 3
2006: 1
2005: 1
2004: 4
2003: 2
2002: 1
2001:
2000: 3
1999: 2
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby olorin » Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:33 pm

gktrack wrote:I like the USA momentum in the decathlon as well, and believe we will see more quality depth in the very near future, as olorin suggests. For comparison, going back to year 2000, the following is the total number of USA athletes over 8000 points (then sub-categorized by those over 8000, 8200, 8400 and 8600).

2012: 3 (1-0-0-2)
2011: 5 (3-0-0-2)
2010: 5 (2-1-2-0)
2009: 4 (1-1-1-1)
2008: 8 (5-0-2-1)
2007: 4 (1-2-1-0)
2006: 4 (1-1-1-1)
2005: 2 (1-0-0-1)
2004: 8 (4-2-0-2)
2003: 5 (2-1-1-1)
2002: 5 (3-1-1-0)
2001: 5 (2-3-0-0)
2000: 5 (3-0-2-0)

I think that 8 is a good guess for the number of 8000+ by American this year. The difference between this year and 2004 & 2008 is that 5-6 of them will be 23 or less. In comparison, in 2008 and 2004 only 2 of the athletes were in the same age bracket.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby TimRoy » Thu Apr 04, 2013 8:19 am

I'd love to learn what's generally considered the greatest single decathlon contest, measured by depth and quality of the entire field. I've been under the impression that it was at the Atlanta Olympics, with these marks:

5th place: 8613

10th place: 8300

15th place: 8249

22 people over 8000

but it's very possible I'm overlooking a contest.

Thoughts, or counter-suggestions?
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby gh » Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:03 am

based on our best-marks-for-place compilation (available in our archive), Atlanta '96 is indeed the winner:

1. 9039 Ashton Eaton (US) OT 12
2. 8820 Bryan Clay (US) OG 04
3. 8742 Erkki Nool (Estonia) Götzis 00
4. 8644 Steve Fritz (US) OG 96
5. 8613 Eduard Hämäläinen (Belarus) OG 96
6. 8543 —Nool OG 96
7. 8461 Mike Maczey (Germany) Götzis 00
8. 8445 Stefan Schmid (Germany) Götzis 00
9. 8357 Yunior Díaz (Cuba) WC 09
10. 8300 Chris Huffins (US) OG 96
11. 8282 Christian Plaziat (France) OG 96
12. 8274 Jón Arnar Magnússon (Ice) OG 96
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby TimRoy » Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:18 am

Thanks Garry. That's great.

Heck of a contest in Gotzis in '00 as well. That was a fine era for the event. We may be on the brink of another. Good times.
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby unclezadok » Fri Apr 05, 2013 8:09 am

norunner wrote:My sister once told me: "Predictions are like men, often wrong and a waste of time".
I still remember some of the many predictions from last year and i don't think many actually came true. 19.00s for the 200m winner in London was my favourite.


Still, what's the point of track and field without predictions? :)
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby olorin » Fri Apr 05, 2013 5:27 pm

TimRoy wrote:Olorin, it would be an unprecedented era, having a dozen athletes at or above 8,600. I'd love to see it, though I fear there'll be the usual attrition due to injury and stunted development. I'd settle for half a dozen.

In terms of recent years, here's the number of 8,600 men, as per the IAAF lists:

2012: 2
2011: 2
2010: 0
2009: 2
2008: 1
2007: 3
2006: 1
2005: 1
2004: 4
2003: 2
2002: 1
2001:
2000: 3
1999: 2

One of the athletes in my (very) short list to break 8600 point until 2015 Damian Warner (Can) has a very good start for his outdoor campaign. Yesterday he set two PBs in Sam Adams invite (where Eaton is competing):
100 - 10.34 previous PB 10.41
400 - 47.63 previous PB 48.20
A weak earlier he broke his PB in the SP of 14.08 (13.74).
One event he can improve a lot is the LJ when his PB is a modest 7.54
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Re: From Heptathlon to Decathlon scores and summer predictio

Postby olorin » Fri Apr 12, 2013 4:29 pm

olorin wrote:
Marlow wrote:
unclezadok wrote:I came up with similar marks for Lazas, Nixon, and Scantling using a slightly different method. Given their current rate of improvement, they might exced the projections.

For Scantling that's a 600 point improvement of his PR! I'm wary of projecting a score that big because it EXPECTS him to continue a meteoric rise. Real-life athletes have to stop and catch their breath every now and again. He will get to 8000 if he stays healthy, but expecting it THIS year is a tall order!

No it isn't projecting meteoric rise, it is simply assuming that he will be able to replicate is winter form to the decathlon.
Compare to 2012 (roughly as I am not next to my computer)
He broke his pb in the DT by 4.5m (90 points)
He broke his pb in the PV by 40cm (120 points)
He broke is pb in the HJ by 3 cm (30 points)
He broke his PB in the 110h by 0.2s (25 points)
He broke his PB in the SP by 70cm (50 points)
He broke his PB in the LJ by 15cm (35 points)
In these six events he already improved by roughly 350 points and we are only in the beginning of April. Come June he will get the missing 250 points. Then it is a question whether he can bring it all together In one decathlon.

If I would only write come mid-April...
To complete the picture:
100 - improvmnet of 0.5 second or 118 points
SP - additional improvement of 20cm or 13 points
400 - improvement of 1.5 seconds or 68 points
JT - improvement of 7m or 106 points.

Overall he improved by 619 points during 2013 and we are only in mid-April
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