Did you watch the NCAA Heptathlon? The top three went out at 5.50, 5.50 and 5.40, it it could have been 5.60, 5.50, 5.50 since there were pretty good attempts at the missed heights. And, this was in event 6 of 7 and they have opened a fair bit lower. Why don't those guys have as much upside as Eaton in the vault and they do not have nearly his capability in the Decathlon; they are good, but they are not going to be challenging 9200.
His best individual event right now is the long jump. His PR of 8.23m would have won a bronze medal in Beijing.
But if we're talking about 2020, perhaps his prospects indeed would be better in the pole vault, as his 30something year old knees won't like the long jump after having been beaten up by a decade of world-class decathlon training and competition.
I consider him rather undeveloped in the pole vault. He has the potential to jump quite a bit higher, but the work required versus the payoff in multi-points is probably not worth it at this point. Maybe someday!
polevaultpower wrote:If he focused on pole vault he would likely have no trouble being world class. I've seen some incredible takeoffs out of him
How do folks define 'world class pole vaulter' '?
It's obviously a question (in all events) that defies a hard and fast answer.
For reasons that are largely pragmatic, I find it sufficient to use the Top 40 lists in the T&FN Annual every year. So for last year in the vault that would have been 5.61 (which I would promptly round down to a nice round 5.60, I'm sure).
gh wrote:For reasons that are largely pragmatic, I find it sufficient to use the Top 40 lists in the T&FN Annual every year. So for last year in the vault that would have been 5.61 (which I would promptly round down to a nice round 5.60, I'm sure).
By that definition he can definitely be "world class". I don't think he can in the SP or the 1500; however, he is already in the LJ.
Top-40 in 2012 in the other decathlon events:
10.08 - 100m (I think he can be world class here) 45.25 - 400m (I think he can be world class here) 13.40 - 110h (He already is here) 2.27 - HJ (stretch) 81.74 - JT (not based upon current form, but I think he can be world class here) 64.76 - DT (stretch)
Disagree about the 100. Completely. I think he has the ability to make the final in Rio if he quit everything to be a 100m guy (and I'm not just talking by time, since it only takes 10.0x to make a global final, I'm talking about US Team - which would mean sub-9.90). Why? In 2011 he ran 6.66 in Tallin in February! Now of the top sprinters in 2011 how did 6.66 compare?
6.66 - Jimmy Vicaut (10.07 outdoors in 2011) 6.67 - Monzavous Edwards (10.13 outdoors in 2011) 6.68 - Ivory Williams (10.02 outdoors in 2011)
There is probably no one on any list in the last 10 years who has worked LESS on pure sprinting than Ashton Eaton and has managed to still run sub-6.70. No one. And, there are still many full-time sprinters who go through entire indoor seasons struggling for that mark - and not reaching it. This isn't the case of a European working exclusively on acceleration pattern; we're talking about a decathlete.
Marlow wrote:Hands up for those who think he's already in the right event.
Clearly, he is in the right event. I do think the PV is an underdeveloped strength for him in the context of the decathlon. His basic athleticism combined with the fact that he has already jumped 5.30 makes me believe that he has at least another 30cm in him without messing up his other events.
Those guys that were hitting 5.40/5.30 at the NCAAs are a good 1000+ points behind him and further ahead on the vault at a younger age (Lazas, Ziemek; Cato). If it is even a consideration with Eaton, it would be much more so for those three.
26mi235 wrote:Those guys that were hitting 5.40/5.30 at the NCAAs are a good 1000+ points behind him and further ahead on the vault at a younger age (Lazas, Ziemek; Cato). If it is even a consideration with Eaton, it would be much more so for those three.
Not sure when those guys started vaulting. Eaton never touched a pole before college. It showed. His first season or two he was literally doing front somersaults over the bar. I assume Eaton has a better 100m and LJ than those guys, that is why I think his maximum potential in the pole vault is higher.
Of course I am quite enjoying seeing so many multi guys vaulting so high, and I hope maybe one or two of them sneak over to the PV only. We seem to be lacking a certain degree of athleticism lately in the US.
Cato and Ziemek were both 15-foot high school vaulters (not certain on Zeimek, but at least high-14s), but Cato was very 'raw' as a freshman (even his RS freshman year; he is now a RS junior). Ziemek is a sophomore; he was 5,354/7042 points as a freshman (5937 at NCAA as soph, including the 540 vault). His indoor vault was only 470, but he was up to 510 in a stand-alone vault outdoors.