Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo


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Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby bruce3404 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 1:08 pm

Huge PR for Ashton. Previous PR (deca or otherwise) was 61.96 (203'3") at London Olympics. He threw 193'1" (58.85) during his world record. Great start in his first appearance of 2013. Also running hurdles later and possible SP duty.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby unclezadok » Sat Mar 16, 2013 2:40 pm

I think this guy has promise.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Daisy » Sat Mar 16, 2013 2:42 pm

unclezadok wrote:I think this guy has promise.

All depends on if he is any good at the other nine events.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby wamego relays champ » Sat Mar 16, 2013 2:57 pm

bruce3404 wrote:Also running hurdles later and possible SP duty.



13.76w (+2.4)

Apparently did not compete in SP.

.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Mighty Favog » Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:20 pm

46.26 relay split, according to the ERG's Curtis Anderson.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby JumboElliott » Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:24 pm

What a freak.

What's the peak age for a multi-eventer?
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby unclezadok » Sat Mar 16, 2013 3:47 pm

However old Eaton is would be the peak age. But seriously, I would say 27-29 for most people.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 4:39 pm

bruce3404 wrote:Huge PR for Ashton. Previous PR (deca or otherwise) was 61.96 (203'3") at London Olympics. He threw 193'1" (58.85) during his world record. Great start in his first appearance of 2013. Also running hurdles later and possible SP duty.


versus his WR 58.85=721 66.92=843 Just think if he had another 122 points!
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby mcgato » Sat Mar 16, 2013 4:50 pm

26mi235 wrote:Just think if he had another 122 points!
My guess is that he would have run about 15 seconds slower in the 1500 (or whatever 122 points would have translated to).
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby DecFan » Sat Mar 16, 2013 5:01 pm

According the the online results, his distance was 66.64. improving his PR by 71 points. Sum of PRs is now 9445.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby bruce3404 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 5:14 pm

mcgato wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Just think if he had another 122 points!
My guess is that he would have run about 15 seconds slower in the 1500 (or whatever 122 points would have translated to).


Ashton is smart enough to know better than to break any WRs by more than a few points at a time and has the 1000/1500 skills to pretty much dictate whatever score he wants, provided the first nine events fall into place for a legitimate WR shot. His JT has obviously progressed tremendously and it'll be interesting to see what he's got this year in SP and DT. Given Hardee's autoqualifier for the World's, it may be that we don't see Eaton in full-on mode until Moscow since 8200/8300 should be good enough to make the team, thus allowing him to only have to peak once this year.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby olorin » Sat Mar 16, 2013 7:10 pm

DecFan wrote:According the the online results, his distance was 66.64. improving his PR by 71 points. Sum of PRs is now 9445.

Still more than 120 points below Dan O'Brien "WR".
The result is a huge PB for Eaton but not so great in decathlon terms as a good decathlete will usually throw ~70. I see no reason why Eaton should not reach this standard sooner rather than later.
Beside his weakness in the throws (SP and DT now) another event that Eaton can improve a lot is the HJ. With a little improvement in his technique he should be able to jump 2.15-2.20 regularly adding another ~100 points to his potential score. If he spent the winter working on his HJ technique then 9,200 may be on the card this year as well as breaking O'Brien's "WR".
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Mar 16, 2013 10:07 pm

The Jav alone almost gets him to 9200, and then he lost probably 100 points to the weather in the 400 alone. Put in your HJ differential (also hurt by weather?) and now we are in JJK territory which others almost cannot even think of attempting. Assuming he improve more in his other throws as well we are looking well in to the mid-9000s under perfect performance (in the decathlon sense, since we are building off of decathlon scores, not PRs).
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby olorin » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:18 am

26mi235 wrote:The Jav alone almost gets him to 9200, and then he lost probably 100 points to the weather in the 400 alone. Put in your HJ differential (also hurt by weather?) and now we are in JJK territory which others almost cannot even think of attempting. Assuming he improve more in his other throws as well we are looking well in to the mid-9000s under perfect performance (in the decathlon sense, since we are building off of decathlon scores, not PRs).


I don’t agree with the details of your estimation (for example improving by 100 points in the 400 means he should ran ~44.7!) but agree with the conclusion.

I think that by 2016 (no series injuries) Eaton can have the following set of marks:
10.25 - 8.15 - 15.55 - 2.14 - 46.3 - 13.50 - 48.50 - 5.40 - 68.00 - 4:15.00
For a score of ~9,500 points.
I also think that none of these marks will be Eaton’s PB come 2016.

The improvement in SP and DT is not a given as the correlation between JT and the other throwing event is relatively low. However, Eaton’s technique in the SP seems evawkward even to my non-professional eyes. Few posters in the past suggest that he can easily improve by one meter if he changes his technique, so 15.55 do not sound unreasonable for me.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby JumboElliott » Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:47 am

The championships will be in Des Moines this year also, so I doubt he'll feel it as imperative to do something special.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby gh » Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:09 am

DecFan wrote:According the the online results, his distance was 66.64. improving his PR by 71 points. Sum of PRs is now 9445.


yes--i took the liberty of correcting the thread title to reflect that.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby unclezadok » Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:17 am

I don't beieve decathletes give any thought to breaking the record by small margins. They don't get that many opportunities to break it. I don't think Bryan Clay had two good weather days in a row in his entire career. It's true, I'm sure, that Eaton would have preferred not to run a 4:14 to get the record, but that's a different issue. If at some point he can blow the record away, he will go for it.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby bruce3404 » Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:35 am

gh wrote:
DecFan wrote:According the the online results, his distance was 66.64. improving his PR by 71 points. Sum of PRs is now 9445.


yes--i took the liberty of correcting the thread title to reflect that.


Thanks. My info was based on a tweet which indicated a throw of 217'8", which converts metrically to 66.62.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Marlow » Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:46 am

olorin wrote:I think that by 2016 (no series injuries) Eaton can have the following set of marks:
10.25 - 8.15 - 15.55 - 2.14 - 46.3 - 13.50 - 48.50 - 5.40 - 68.00 - 4:15.00
For a score of ~9,500 points.
I also think that none of these marks will be Eaton’s PB come 2016.

As I noted on a previous Eaton thread, he may already have lifetime bests in the 100, LJ and 1500. His throws should definitely get better. I don't see the HJ or 110H getting much better. The 400 and PV will get a little better. His WR was a peak experience, and it's very difficult to reproduce that. I do think he can get to 9200, because of throw PRs, but everything else is subject to an off-day.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Dave » Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:05 am

unclezadok wrote:I don't beieve decathletes give any thought to breaking the record by small margins. They don't get that many opportunities to break it. I don't think Bryan Clay had two good weather days in a row in his entire career. ....


Can you imagine where Eaton would have been if he had had favorable conditions in Eugene last summer?

I guess others believe he would have held back in the 1500 to keep the record in reach.
Last edited by Dave on Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby gh » Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:08 am

Eaton lives and trains in Oregon all the time; tales of the weather having much effect on his OT performance are greatly exaggerated, IMHO.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Marlow » Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:40 am

gh wrote:Eaton lives and trains in Oregon all the time; tales of the weather having much effect on his OT performance are greatly exaggerated, IMHO.

The weather certainly didn't HELP. but yeah, he was LEAST affected.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Dave » Sun Mar 17, 2013 9:27 am

gh wrote:Eaton lives and trains in Oregon all the time; tales of the weather having much effect on his OT performance are greatly exaggerated, IMHO.


To a certain point I think that is true. I am sure training there means that he is not going to get rattled by the weather. However, a 75 degree day with 2/ms trailing wind in the is going to make life easier in a lot of events.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby batonless relay » Sun Mar 17, 2013 10:25 am

I think Eaton is more likely to improve in any/all of his events than ANY other American decathlete at or above NCAA level. He's that good.
-I think Eaton can run sub-10.15 maybe even sub-10.10,
-greater than 8.40,
-he should get close to 16m...definitely 15.50 (SP is more technical than the credit its given by many who should know better),
-2.15-2.20 seems very possible
-sub-45 (nearly any sub-10.25 sprinter can (should?); Toomey, 45.6x, with less 100m PB),
-greater than 2.20, sub-13.20 (110h going through a time explosion, it's going to trickle down to decathletes who go to 7 steps or make the other changes),
-I think he's got 55m+ in the DT (look at what Jamaica is currently doing with youth and juniors in the event),
-if he improved to 5.70 [≈16"] it wouldn't surprise me much,
-it's a foregone conclusion, imo, that he will exceed 70m JT and
-his 1500 in is only governed by his lead going into the event.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Fortius19 » Sun Mar 17, 2013 1:11 pm

OK, let's see

10.09, 8.41, 15.50, 2.15, 44.99,, 13.19, 55.01, 5.70, 70.01 in just nine events gives AE 9144.

If his 1500 is dependent on his lead at this point, maybe he'll just take one step at the start and not finish. :lol:
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Per Andersen » Sun Mar 17, 2013 2:40 pm

Fortius19 wrote:OK, let's see

10.09, 8.41, 15.50, 2.15, 44.99,, 13.19, 55.01, 5.70, 70.01 in just nine events gives AE 9144.

If his 1500 is dependent on his lead at this point, maybe he'll just take one step at the start and not finish. :lol:

Yes for 15.50 and 70.01 but no for the rest.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby olorin » Sun Mar 17, 2013 8:01 pm

Marlow wrote:
olorin wrote:I think that by 2016 (no series injuries) Eaton can have the following set of marks:
10.25 - 8.15 - 15.55 - 2.14 - 46.3 - 13.50 - 48.50 - 5.40 - 68.00 - 4:15.00
For a score of ~9,500 points.
I also think that none of these marks will be Eaton’s PB come 2016.

As I noted on a previous Eaton thread, he may already have lifetime bests in the 100, LJ and 1500. His throws should definitely get better. I don't see the HJ or 110H getting much better. The 400 and PV will get a little better. His WR was a peak experience, and it's very difficult to reproduce that. I do think he can get to 9200, because of throw PRs, but everything else is subject to an off-day.


The 100, LJ and 1500 marks are all below what he achieved during a decathlon. He ran 46.7 in Eugene between the paddles so I don't think 46.3 is a problem (PB. 45.68!). He also ran twice 13.5x during decathlon (13,34 PB) so the HH mark seems reasonable to me.

So we are left with 5 PBs.
An improvement in the technique in the SP & HJ should see him above the marks I "predicted". 48.5 in the DT is only a meter and half more than his current PB. Most decathletes throw ~50m and I see no reason why Eaton should not follow suit. Finally, after his clearance of 5.20 in the Olympic I believe he can jump in the 5.50 range.

During the 2015-2017 period when he should reach his peak he can have six tries for the record. If in one of these tries everything will click he will do something to saver
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby leoesharkey » Sun Mar 17, 2013 10:20 pm

Discus is possibly the most technically demanding event in T and F but this unique athlete can and will improve, bravo :D
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Mar 17, 2013 10:52 pm

leoesharkey wrote:Discus is possibly the most technically demanding event in T and F


More than the pole vault? And, as a vertical jump, one great attempt can be almost all that useful if the bar height is not yet at a critical level. How often have we seen someone go 30cms above the bar on an intermediate bar and not get that same great combination on the next height. In the throws and horizontal jumps you do not face that complication. Does any other event have the 'yips' of the vault that effects even the very best of the breed?
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby unclezadok » Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:21 am

gh wrote:Eaton lives and trains in Oregon all the time; tales of the weather having much effect on his OT performance are greatly exaggerated, IMHO.


That helps mentally, doesn't help physically.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby bruce3404 » Mon Mar 18, 2013 6:34 am

leoesharkey wrote:Discus is possibly the most technically demanding event in T and F but this unique athlete can and will improve, bravo :D


Since we're discussing discus, I have it on the best authority that AE has thrown 50 meters in practice, so it's just a matter of time and consistency in practice before one of those three competitive throws is a 50m throw. I'm very excited to see what improvements winter has wrought in the DT and SP. Shouldn't have to wait too long.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Dave » Mon Mar 18, 2013 2:23 pm

It is going to be so sad when this guy finally reaches a plateau and is only able to crush the competition rather than improve his world records while crushing the competition.

Mr. Eaton is a mark snob's greatest fantasy.
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Re: Eaton 66.62 (218'7") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby gh » Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:10 pm

wamego relays champ wrote:
bruce3404 wrote:Also running hurdles later and possible SP duty.



13.76w (+2.4)

Apparently did not compete in SP.

.


turns out that was his second hurdles race of the day; in the first heat he ran he took a tumble at the fourth hurdle.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Marlow » Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:16 pm

unclezadok wrote:
gh wrote:Eaton lives and trains in Oregon all the time; tales of the weather having much effect on his OT performance are greatly exaggerated, IMHO.

That helps mentally, doesn't help physically.

As Yogi said it's "90% mental, the other half is physical."
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby unclezadok » Wed Mar 20, 2013 2:28 pm

Actually, I think Yogi said 90% of baseball is 50% mental. For decathlon I'd say it's the other way around--whatever that is.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Dave » Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:55 pm

Anyone have any idea what the rest of his throws were in that series? The result site only lists his best throw.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby olorin » Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:24 pm

Dave wrote:It is going to be so sad when this guy finally reaches a plateau and is only able to crush the competition rather than improve his world records while crushing the competition.

Mr. Eaton is a mark snob's greatest fantasy.


The sum of points based on PBs gives us a fair indication about the potential of a decathlete in the event (while the decathlon is the fulfilment of this potential). The table below summarizes Eaton's progress since he was 20 (2008). For each year I present the total points base on PBs (only legal marks), the number of events in which he improved his PB and event that he improved by more than 40 points.
2008 - 8164
2009 - 8573....9......LJ, HJ, JT
2010 - 8789....7......LJ, 110h,
2011 - 9115....7......SP, HJ, DT, JT
2012 - 9368....8......LJ, PV, JT
2013 - 9439*...1......JT

* this is different from the "official" 9445 because of the two windy marks in 100 and 110h.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby Fortius19 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:30 pm

olorin wrote:The sum of points based on PBs gives us a fair indication about the potential of a decathlete in the event (while the decathlon is the fulfilment of this potential). The table below summarizes Eaton's progress since he was 20 (2008). For each year I present the total points base on PBs (only legal marks), the number of events in which he improved his PB and event that he improved by more than 40 points.
2008 - 8164
2009 - 8573....9......LJ, HJ, JT
2010 - 8789....7......LJ, 110h,
2011 - 9115....7......SP, HJ, DT, JT
2012 - 9368....8......LJ, PV, JT
2013 - 9439*...1......JT

* this is different from the "official" 9445 because of the two windy marks in 100 and 110h.


Great stats! I had forgotten about AE's 10.19w.

It would be interesting to see the sum total of PRs next to his Deca SB for that year. I tried to look them up, but got nowhere online. Don't have time to go through old T&FN right now.
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby olorin » Mon Mar 25, 2013 5:49 am

Fortius19 wrote:
olorin wrote:The sum of points based on PBs gives us a fair indication about the potential of a decathlete in the event (while the decathlon is the fulfilment of this potential). The table below summarizes Eaton's progress since he was 20 (2008). For each year I present the total points base on PBs (only legal marks), the number of events in which he improved his PB and event that he improved by more than 40 points.
2008 - 8164
2009 - 8573....9......LJ, HJ, JT
2010 - 8789....7......LJ, 110h,
2011 - 9115....7......SP, HJ, DT, JT
2012 - 9368....8......LJ, PV, JT
2013 - 9439*...1......JT

* this is different from the "official" 9445 because of the two windy marks in 100 and 110h.


Great stats! I had forgotten about AE's 10.19w.

It would be interesting to see the sum total of PRs next to his Deca SB for that year. I tried to look them up, but got nowhere online. Don't have time to go through old T&FN right now.

Do you want the SB (easy) or the SB during decathlon (more complicated)?
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Re: Eaton 66.64 (218'8") Javelin in San Luis Obispo

Postby gh » Mon Mar 25, 2013 7:40 am

The only problem in using PRs to weigh decathletes is that the longer the career gets the less relevant the marks become. The poster boy for that is Russ Hodge. The guy who ran 10.3 and 4:12ish was not the same guy who became a 60-foot putter a half-decade later. Somatotypes change.
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