WXC predictions


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Re: WXC predictions

Postby nevetsllim » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:25 am

tandfman wrote:Deena Kastor is still listed on the US team roster. Is she really going to Poland this week, having just run the LA Marathon on Sunday?


She tweeted she's still headed to Poland.

Entry-lists here
http://dt9guucc6nuua.cloudfront.net/com ... 33e0b5.pdf
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:48 pm

Powell wrote:Here's what the course in Bydgoszcz is looking like today :?
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=353 ... =2&theater


Looks like most of the snow has been cleared off the course. These were taken yesterday:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid= ... =1&theater

But the forecast for Sunday shows temperatures of -4C (25F) high, -17C (1F) low :? Not exactly perfect conditions for running, or spectating.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:02 am

Europe really is getting clobbered. Yorkshire is expecting up to 10 inches of snow this weekend.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Fri Mar 22, 2013 9:39 am

Let's get some info out for those looking to join.

I'm doing the easiest info first, TEAM. Here is some historical data from the past 3 championships. 2011, 2010 (poland), 2009

Women's
Kenya (3 wins) - averaging 14.33 places per meet
Ethiopia (3 2nd's) - averaging 26 places per meet
USA 3rd,3rd,5th - 87
Portugal 12th,5th,3rd - 141
GBR 5th,6th,9th - 150
Mor 11th,4th,6th - 156
Spain 8th,11th,4th - 157
Japan 7th,7th,8th - 158
Aus 10th,8th,7th - 173
South Africa 9th,9th,10th - 189
Bahrain 4th,9th,DNC - 125 (average for 2 meets)
Uganda 6th, DNC, DNC - 148

Men's
Kenya 1st,1st,1st - 20
Ethiopia 2nd,3rd,2nd - 44
Eritrea 4th,2nd,3rd - 62
Uganda 3rd,4th,4th - 67
Spain 8th,6th,7th - 146
Mor 13th, 5th,6th - 147
South Africa 5th,12th,9th - 160
USA 9th,9th,8th - 180
Portugal 12th,13th,12th - 240
GBR 15th,14th,14th - 275
Japan 14th, 16th, 11th - 277

2 meets
Qatar DNC, 11th, 5th - 132
Bahrain 6th, 8th, DNC - 149
AUS 10th, 15th, DNC - 244
France DNC, 10th, 13th - 244

1 meet
Algeria 2011 7th - 147
Norway 2011 11th - 211
Tanzania 2010 7th - 159

Hope this helps, Now the work on the hard part the individuals. :oops:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 12:10 pm

My predictions
Men's
1 - Kenya 26
2 - Ethiopia 32
3 - Uganda 54
8 - USA 181

Individuals
Geoffrey Kirui KEN
Yigrem Demelash ETH
Moses Kipsiro UGA
Abrar Osman ERI
Chris Derrick USA
Thomas Szymkowiak POL
Cameron Levins CAN
Alt - Carles Castillejo ESP

Womens
1- Ethiopia 24
2- Kenyan 26
3- Bahrain 56
5- USA 80

Margaret Muriuki KEN
Meselech Melkamu ETH
Shitaye Eshete BRN
Katarzyna Kowalska POL
Fionnuala Britton IRL
Kim Conley USA
Diana Martin ESP
alt - Dina Phalula RSA
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:42 pm

Other individuals I gathered info on
Men's
Rabah Aboud ALG - 20th in 2011
Liam Adams AUS - 79th in 2011 & 37th in 2010 (in Poland)
Collis Birmingham AUS- 83rd in 2010 - 28:06 10k best in 2012
Alemu Bekele BRN - 68th in 2011 & 31st in 2010
Mohammed Ahmed CAN 27th in Jr 2010 - 27:36 10k best in 2012
T. Medhin ERI 14th & 2nd in 2010 - 27:16 10k best in 2012
I. Merga ETH 1st in 2011 - 27:14
F. Lilesa ETH 17th & 25th
S. Vernon GBR 57th & 43rd - 10th at Euro's in Dec
K. Yano Jpn was 4th in a X-C race in Febuary
Macharinyang KEN 10th & 9th
K. Zalewski POL 107th - ran a couple X-C races in Feb 4th & 5th had to pick one POL with the weather and course could be a home field advantage.
M. Damiao POR 47th & 68th, won a X-C race in Feb
R. Kajuga RWA 10k best in 2012 27:56
G. Kusuro UGA 13th & 15th
Ben True USA 35th in 2011
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:58 pm

I believe entries should be complete by USA 6am EST, so hurry and get them in. :wink:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sat Mar 23, 2013 4:22 pm

Some women's info

Bahrain 5 athletes on start list
Eshete 12th in 2011 & 11th in 2010
K Jasmin 25th in 2011
T. Daba 27th in 2011
G. Shumi 30th

N. Weldu ERI 45th in 2011 - 3rd in X-C race in dec
D. Martin ESP 64th in 2011 - 10th @ Euro's - 4th & 5th in X-C races in Jan
H. Ayalew ETH 11th in 2011 - 9:09 SC PB in 2012
M. Melkamu ETH 4th & 2nd
B. Oljira ETH 10th
S. Duarte FRA 6th @ Euro's
L. Damen GBR 11th @ Euro's
S Twell GBR 23rd in 2010
F. Britton IRL 16th in 2011 - 1st @ Euro's
L. Byrne IRL 8th @ Euro's
H. Niiya JPN 26th & 31st
H. Tanaka JPN 33rd in 2011 - 3rd in X-C race 2/10/13
Y. Abe JPN 4th in X-C race 2/10/13
M. Muriuki KEN 6th 2010 - 1st X-C 2/16/13
E. Chebet KEN 1st 2010 - 4th X-C 2/16/13
I. Cheptai KEN 2nd X-C 2/16/13
S. El Ouali Alami MAR 28th in 2010
K. Kowalska POL 36th in 2010
A. Mierzejewska POL 61st in 2010
C. Kalmer RSA 31st in 2011
D. Phalula RSA 44th & 22nd
J. Chekwel UGA 22nd
J. Achola UGA 32nd
V. Chemos UGA 38th
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby lionelp1 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:04 am

lets face it you have to have little or no interest in track and Field not to know that the World xcountry champs was this w/e in Poland and sheer ignorance if American so- called fans did not know that they had an American team entered.
There is tons of stuff on this Flag Waving site about American high school/ college athletes of no real interest to anybody except fans like Aaronk the track wonk, so why the beef about other nations winning and only one continent to win everything; didnt hear about Americans grumbling that they won so many medals at the Swimming stuff in London OG; the Africans didnt do well in the water :lol: .

There is more to our great sport than sprinting, thank god, and if more athletes from Europe trained harder and more often over the country perhaps we might have a few more Rupps.

Always have a look at another well known track site, I suppose.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Powell » Sun Mar 24, 2013 2:45 am

The course in Bydgoszcz is looking very tough, and this, combined with the cold weather might make the Africans a bit less dominant than usual. It would still be a major surprise to see a non-African win a medal, but a place or two in the top 10 for the Europeans or Americans might be a possibility...
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby nevetsllim » Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:02 am

I've just doubled the entry number. ;) But JN, the rules are pretty confusing! Perhaps an old-fashioned 1-2-3 game would be easier?

My predictions

Men
Kirui
Merga
Birmingham
Levins
Mehdin
Kipsiro
Mack
Marwa (ALT)

1 ETH 17
2 KEN 30
3 UGA 60
7 USA 160

Women
Ayalew
Chebet
Eshete
Damen
Belete
Britton
Conley
Calvin (ALT)

1 ETH 20
2 KEN 35
3 BAH 50
5 USA 85
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TR » Sun Mar 24, 2013 5:51 am

American men may have just finished second. Awesome runs by Ben True and Chris Derrick.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby lionelp1 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:01 am

Wave your flags , posters , True and Derrick run very well in 6th and 9th; rather a while since 2 Yanks in the top ten.Good team performance by the USA.
Who said only the Africans can expect to run well in the World xcountry?? Clearly not true as Ben would say.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Master Po » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:03 am

Great races all around. Agree w lionelp1's comments above re the "who cares?" attitude expressed in some quarters. I am a USA person, and of course support and hope for the success of USA athletes. But it's really great to watch these great athletes -- KEN, ETH, et al. -- run WXC. I would like to see it promoted and presented better, but it's a great event in any case. Also it was a treat to be able to watch the live presentation today. Nice commentary by the British presenters.

Great women's race w Chebet overtaking Ayalew at the end for the victory. Gebrehiwet (sp?) of course dominant in the men's Jr. race.

Some performances by the non-dominant nations:

USA Jr women were 6th, with Carrie Verdon being top finisher (20th). Congratulations to GBR women for their bronze medal.

USA Jr men 4th; Matt McClintock top finisher (20th).

USA Sr women 4th; Neely Spence 13th.

USA Sr men -- not sure about team -- a medal, I think. Ben True 6th & Chris Derrick 9th, I think.

Was also interested to see how Collis Birmingham would do, and I think he was 8th.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TR » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:05 am

Japhet Korir won and he wasn't even on the team two weeks ago. :shock:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Master Po » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:09 am

update:
USA team -- silver medal
True 6
Derrick 10
Vail 17
Mack 19

(I'm sure someone will be able to "who cares?" this result, but in the meantime -- congratulations!)
:)

I think it's the case that these finishes mean True & Derrick are considered to have the WC "A" standard for 10km. (Maybe they did anyway, but they do now.) Also the case for Neely Spence.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:32 am

nevetsllim wrote:But JN, the rules are pretty confusing!

Good Cross Country isn't suppose to be easy. :lol:

I was hoping to have my team done earlier but the startlist came out so late. Have to do a better job of getting my team and additional info up sooner. Have to admit I'm distracted by the big Basketball tournament we have in the USA. :oops:
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby aaronk » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:37 am

The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!

Looking at the JR Women's results, I see some familiar names (to US fans!):

The winner, Faith Kipyegon, of course won the 1500 at WJC last year.
Amy Eloise-Neale ran for GB, but ran for a WA state HS, and finished 21st.
Bobby Clay just recently became known to us as GB's answer to Mary Cain!
She ended in 27th.
Two US high schoolers, Erin Finn and Samantha Nadel, ended in 34th and 44th.

But how much better would the lady JR's have done if Sarah Baxter and Mary Cain had been on the team?

Re Master Po's comment that True, Derrick, and Spence might have met the WC "A" standard for 10K:
Are CC times allowed for meeting track standards?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:40 am

Nevets you easily won the mens

Nevets men's total 269
JN's men's total 396

Not totally official as I haven't seen if officially 4th & 5th team place, I used ERI 4th - 75; UGA 5th 76 from the indidual results. Don't know if any team DNF'ed, which would take out thier individuals from the scoring.

Your scores as follows
nevetsllim wrote:
My predictions

Men
Kirui 15
Merga 2
Birmingham 8
Levins 41
Mehdin 3
Kipsiro 4
Mack 19 = 92
Marwa (ALT)

1 ETH 17 actual 1-38 (+21)
2 KEN 30 actual 3-54 (+1+24)
3 UGA 60 actual 5-76 (+2+16)
7 USA 160 actual 2-52 (+5+108)

= 92 from individual score +8 team placing +169 team score = 269
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Master Po » Sun Mar 24, 2013 6:54 am

aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!

Looking at the JR Women's results, I see some familiar names (to US fans!):

The winner, Faith Kipyegon, of course won the 1500 at WJC last year.
Amy Eloise-Neale ran for GB, but ran for a WA state HS, and finished 21st.
Bobby Clay just recently became known to us as GB's answer to Mary Cain!
She ended in 27th.
Two US high schoolers, Erin Finn and Samantha Nadel, ended in 34th and 44th.

But how much better would the lady JR's have done if Sarah Baxter and Mary Cain had been on the team?

Re Master Po's comment that True, Derrick, and Spence might have met the WC "A" standard for 10K:
Are CC times allowed for meeting track standards?


I believe this "A" standard criterion was put in place for this year's WC -- not times, but top-15 finish would count for 10km "A."

I also would like to respond to your suggestion that USA might have done better had they been able to send their best. I think this can always be said by most of the teams that don't win the gold. I'm very happy with the team that USA sent -- especially because these guys really wanted to contest this race, and so I am really happy with the silver that these guys earned. Same for the others.

A couple of other "age-group" compliments:
Bobby Clay (GBR), 27th, is one of only two Jr women with 1997 birth years (the other being Roseline Chepngetich, KEN, 7th). Really impressed with how these two fared in the Jr race, where a year or two of maturation and experience can make a huge difference.

Deena Kastor, 34th (5th USA finisher), age 40yr 1mo the oldest finisher in the women's Sr race. A couple of the French runners @ 38yo, but otherwise the entire field in its 20s, up to about age 30. Moreover, Kastor ran a 2:32 marathon a week ago. I really didn't believe she was even going to run this race today. Impressive performance. Glad to see her out there, especially considering her success in this event -- she knows how difficult it is, and what it means, and I would guess wanted to be out there one last time.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Jnathletics » Sun Mar 24, 2013 7:00 am

You won the women's also, so nevets is the 2013 X-C prediction champ. The only category I won was the women's team, but no by much 61 to 75

Nevets women score 180
JN's 250

So totals
Nevets 449
JN's 646

nevetsllim wrote:
Women
Ayalew 2
Chebet 1
Eshete 4
Damen 37
Belete 17
Britton 14
Conley 30 = 105
Calvin (ALT)

1 ETH 20 actual 2-48 (+1+28)
2 KEN 35 actual 1-19 (+1+16)
3 BAH 50 actual 3-73 (0+23)
5 USA 85 actual 4-90 (+1+5) = +3 + 72


Total for women's Nevets = 105 from individual + 3 Team placing + 72 team scoring = 180
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby mcgato » Sun Mar 24, 2013 7:14 am

It was nice of the IAAF to pick today during WXC to do system maintenance on their website. Good planning, as usual, IAAF.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 24, 2013 7:53 am

Master Po wrote: I would like to see it promoted and presented better, but it's a great event in any case.


The WCCC were promoted and presented very well. It was one of the highlights of the whole year. Then it became a dual meet and the result is what we have now.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby JumboElliott » Sun Mar 24, 2013 8:29 am

aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!

Looking at the JR Women's results, I see some familiar names (to US fans!):

The winner, Faith Kipyegon, of course won the 1500 at WJC last year.
Amy Eloise-Neale ran for GB, but ran for a WA state HS, and finished 21st.
Bobby Clay just recently became known to us as GB's answer to Mary Cain!
She ended in 27th.
Two US high schoolers, Erin Finn and Samantha Nadel, ended in 34th and 44th.

But how much better would the lady JR's have done if Sarah Baxter and Mary Cain had been on the team?

Re Master Po's comment that True, Derrick, and Spence might have met the WC "A" standard for 10K:
Are CC times allowed for meeting track standards?

Yeah, but what if Kenya brought Geoffrey Mutai, Bidan Karoki and the like?

Or if Ethiopia brought Gebre Gebremariam, the brothers Bekele, and Hagos Gebrhiwet competed in the senior race?

How about Eritrea bringing Tadese?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 8:32 am

aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!


Why would the US be the only country permitted to substitute?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Sprints_and_XC » Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:35 am

I posted this in wrong forum b4

if you have a British ip address

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... s_Country/

Will be available in by 10pm UK time March 24th
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:10 am

Here is my prediction. I predict the WCCC will soon be a thing of the past. It had a nice run, but if interest is now rock bottom, what is the point? Is there even a locale for 2 years from now?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby JumboElliott » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:36 am

Guiyang China.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby aaronk » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:36 am

Dutra5 wrote:
aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!


Why would the US be the only country permitted to substitute?


Wasn't talking about substitution.
Was talking about those 3 (and other top runners, male and female) not even TRYING to make the team in the first place!!
Same happens at the World Indoors and some of the "lesser" championships, like the Pan Ams.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:37 am

JumboElliott wrote:Guiyang China.


Really? Mars will be next.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby JumboElliott » Sun Mar 24, 2013 11:41 am

It's a bigger city than Daegu. I didn't see anyone saying Daegu wasn't a big enough city to host a World Championship.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Mar 24, 2013 1:00 pm

aaronk wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:
aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!


Why would the US be the only country permitted to substitute?


Wasn't talking about substitution.
Was talking about those 3 (and other top runners, male and female) not even TRYING to make the team in the first place!!
Same happens at the World Indoors and some of the "lesser" championships, like the Pan Ams.


....and has been pointed out elsewhere...how about if Kenya loads up as well?
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby tandfman » Sun Mar 24, 2013 2:41 pm

aaronk wrote:
Dutra5 wrote:
aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!

Why would the US be the only country permitted to substitute?

Wasn't talking about substitution.
Was talking about those 3 (and other top runners, male and female) not even TRYING to make the team in the first place!!

Never mind those who didn't try. Ritz & Teg were second and third in the US XC Championships. Suppose THEY had decided to be part of the team that they qualified for. That sure could have meant a US win in Poland.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby TR » Sun Mar 24, 2013 2:49 pm

aaronk wrote:The US did amazing in the Men's SR race.
But can't help but wonder if we would've WON with guys like Rupp, Lagat, and Lomong on the team!

Looking at the JR Women's results, I see some familiar names (to US fans!):

The winner, Faith Kipyegon, of course won the 1500 at WJC last year.
Amy Eloise-Neale ran for GB, but ran for a WA state HS, and finished 21st.
Bobby Clay just recently became known to us as GB's answer to Mary Cain!
She ended in 27th.
Two US high schoolers, Erin Finn and Samantha Nadel, ended in 34th and 44th.

But how much better would the lady JR's have done if Sarah Baxter and Mary Cain had been on the team?

Re Master Po's comment that True, Derrick, and Spence might have met the WC "A" standard for 10K:
Are CC times allowed for meeting track standards?


Samantha Nadel is at Georgetown.
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Re: WXC predictions

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:58 pm

tandfman wrote:
Never mind those who didn't try. Ritz & Teg were second and third in the US XC Championships. Suppose THEY had decided to be part of the team that they qualified for. That sure could have meant a US win in Poland.


If we can't even get our guys to compete, what is the point? Now it will be in China, which doesn't even have a men's team. And where next? Venus!

The WCCC had its day.

So the USA had won today. So what? Would anyone care? Certainly not the US media.

The Europeans all play soccer, the East Africans do marathons. And our best guys realize it doesn't mean much anymore. Which is a shame, since the meet really once meant something. I have good friends who got individual and team medals back in the 80's when it was important. But in its present state it is more of a sideshow.
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