In the March issue of T&FN, predictions are made for the upcoming NCAA's indoor. Here are T&FN's predictions (made about 6 weeks before the meet??)....with brief comments by me:
Men: 60--Bracy (Sure bet!) 200--A Webb 400--Spratling (Lendore ran 45.15!! Is this his??) 800--E Kemboi (What is Momoh's potential?) mile--Bayer (O'Hare is CR holder!!) 3000--Lalang (No problem!) 5000--Lalang (Ditto!) 60H--Adams (Could be one of best races!!) 4X400--Ark. DMR--Tenn. (With all those OT times, hard to tell!!) HJ--Kynard (Can he get the CR??) PV--Irwin LJ--R Higgs (As the lone 27-footer, it's Dendy's for the taking!!) TJ--Craddock SP--Clarke WT--Ziegler (Another close contest!) Hept--Lazas Team--Ark.
Women: 60--Gardner (Will Duncan run...and win...both??) 200--Duncan (Can she get the CR??) 400--Dixon (By George, I'll pick Regina!! ) 800--Lipsey (Hopefully a sub-2:02!!) mile--Flood (What about D'Agostino or Coburn, with their times from Millrose??) 3000--Hasay (Who else is running?? Sadly (because Jordan is a nice person!!), I don't see her winning!! 5000--D'Agostino (What about Saina....and Sisson?? But I'll go with D'Agostino!!) 60H--Rollins (Can she get the CR...again??) 4X400--Ore. DMR--Ore. (See Men's DMR remarks!!) HJ--Barrett (The CR?? It's Barrett, unless Tynita Butts in!! ) PV--LeLeux (She had an eye problem recently. Will she compete....and be at her best??) LJ--K Dunn (Can Geubelle win both??) TJ--Geubelle SP--Brooks (Easy choice!!) WT--F Johnson Pent.--B Harrell Team--LSU
Your predictions?? (Doesn't have to be for all events!!)
Last edited by aaronk on Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:00 pm, edited 4 times in total.
In a front page article, Running Times picks the mid- and long-distance medalists. Theirs are based on current lists of entrants.
They have it as: 800--Momah and Lipsey mile--O'Hare and Coburn 3000--Lalang and D'Agostino 5000--Kithuka and Saina
I hope T&FN comes up with their own current predictions. Apparently, the women's mile field has been decimated by moves to other events, opening it up for an easy Coburn win.
I didn't know Lalang was running the mile and 3K....NOT the 5K!!
I still think D'Agostino can beat Saina in the 5K.
aaronk wrote: I still think D'Agostino can beat Saina in the 5K.
I'll go with Abbey D. in the 3K and Saina in the 5K. Abbey was closing in on Coburn at the end of the Millrose Mile and came in only .17 seconds behind...so she has the speed plus her 5K endurance to win the 3K. I think Betsy Saina has become just too strong a runner to not win the 5K.
Bruce Kritzler wrote:The USTCCCA has weekly rankings of all teams and events. They are basically a descending order list.
aaronk, TN not in dmr Flood not in mile Harrel not in pent
Thanks. I've seen those, but was hoping for something more substantive that would also include scratches and perhaps factor in race loads that might affect athlete's performances in various events. For instance, it's great to know that Jordan Hasay has qualified in 3000, the 5000 and could run a leg on the DMR, but it's probably unrealistic to expect her to grab points based on her individual event season bests when others competing against her will only compete in a single event. I guess I could look at the entry lists and make up my own dope sheets, but I was hoping some professional would do the heavy lifting!
Bruce Kritzler wrote:The USTCCCA has weekly rankings of all teams and events. They are basically a descending order list.
aaronk, TN not in dmr Flood not in mile Harrel not in pent
Thanks. I've seen those, but was hoping for something more substantive that would also include scratches and perhaps factor in race loads that might affect athlete's performances in various events. For instance, it's great to know that Jordan Hasay has qualified in 3000, the 5000 and could run a leg on the DMR, but it's probably unrealistic to expect her to grab points based on her individual event season bests when others competing against her will only compete in a single event. I guess I could look at the entry lists and make up my own dope sheets, but I was hoping some professional would do the heavy lifting!
My initial post gave the T&FN picks from their March issue...which went to press sometime in late January, probably.......like I said, about 6 weeks prior to the meet. So they're forgiven for not knowing all the latest entry info....back then.
For an up-to-date form sheet on the events 800 on up (including DMR), see the Running Times article on the front page....listed in the news brief column. It goes in depth on the who's and why's!!
An interesting tidbit: In the story link on the Home Page to about Wisconsin in the Badger Herald (UW paper) all of the marks were given in metric and there were no Imperial conversions.
[quote="aaronk] For an up-to-date form sheet on the events 800 on up (including DMR), see the Running Times article on the front page....listed in the news brief column. It goes in depth on the who's and why's!![/quote]
Letsrun.com (Wood report) has a much more (thorough and accurate) preview of the 800m and longer events.
Don't have time to post the entire dope sheet I made up last night in the absence of any others since I'm on my way to watch the multis this morning. I simply took the USTFCCCA numbers and in the event of ties, awarded positions based on most recent performances. Here's what the team scores look like:
aaronk wrote:In the March issue of T&FN, predictions are made for the upcoming NCAA's indoor. Here are T&FN's predictions (made about 6 weeks before the meet??)....with brief comments by me:
Men: 60--Bracy (Sure bet!) 200--A Webb 400--Spratling (Lendore ran 45.15!! Is this his??) 800--E Kemboi (What is Momoh's potential?) mile--Bayer (O'Hare is CR holder!!) 3000--Lalang (No problem!) 5000--Lalang (Ditto!) 60H--Adams (Could be one of best races!!) 4X400--Ark.
MR--Tenn. (With all those OT times, hard to tell!!) HJ--Kynard (Can he get the CR??) PV--Irwin LJ--R Higgs (As the lone 27-footer, it's Dendy's for the taking!!) TJ--Craddock SP--Clarke WT--Ziegler (Another close contest!) Hept--Lazas Team--Ark.
Women: 60--Gardner (Will Duncan run...and win...both??) 200--Duncan (Can she get the CR??) 400--Dixon (By George, I'll pick Regina!! ) 800--Lipsey (Hopefully a sub-2:02!!) mile--Flood (What about D'Agostino or Coburn, with their times from Millrose??) 3000--Hasay (Who else is running?? Sadly (because Jordan is a nice person!!), I don't see her winning!! 5000--D'Agostino (What about Saina....and Sisson?? But I'll go with D'Agostino!!) 60H--Rollins (Can she get the CR...again??) 4X400--Ore. DMR--Ore. (See Men's DMR remarks!!) HJ--Barrett (The CR?? It's Barrett, unless Tynita Butts in!! ) PV--LeLeux (She had an eye problem recently. Will she compete....and be at her best??) LJ--K Dunn (Can Geubelle win both??) TJ--Geubelle SP--Brooks (Easy choice!!) WT--F Johnson Pent.--B Harrell Team--LSU
Your predictions?? (Doesn't have to be for all events!!)
aaronk wrote:In the March issue of T&FN, predictions are made for the upcoming NCAA's indoor. Here are T&FN's predictions (made about 6 weeks before the meet??)....with brief comments by me:
Men:
mile--Bayer (O'Hare is CR holder!!) [Bayer is not back to full strength yet, but 1st at NCAAs and 4th at the Trials...] 3000--Lalang (No problem!) 5000--Lalang (Ditto!)[he is not in it but even if he were Kennedy Kithuka would beat him again, although LL might get the 3000] 4X400--Ark.
400--Dixon (By George, I'll pick Regina!! )[I would put my money on Spencer]
Your 4x400's are off!
Women: Texas Longhorns [Oregon does not have that great a seed time, but given what English Gardner did last time, she may have a pretty strong anchor here compared to the mark she did in that seed race.]
aaronk wrote:In the March issue of T&FN, predictions are made for the upcoming NCAA's indoor. Here are T&FN's predictions (made about 6 weeks before the meet??)....with brief comments by me:
Men:
mile--Bayer (O'Hare is CR holder!!) [Bayer is not back to full strength yet, but 1st at NCAAs and 4th at the Trials...] 3000--Lalang (No problem!) 5000--Lalang (Ditto!)[he is not in it but even if he were Kennedy Kithuka would beat him again, although LL might get the 3000] 4X400--Ark.
400--Dixon (By George, I'll pick Regina!! )[I would put my money on Spencer]
Your 4x400's are off!
Women: Texas Longhorns [Oregon does not have that great a seed time, but given what English Gardner did last time, she may have a pretty strong anchor here compared to the mark she did in that seed race.]
I believe the Ducks have been sandbagging a bit on both the DMR and 4x400 with their best times coming 6 and 4 weeks ago, respectively. The same team that shattered the field in last year's outdoor championships with the second fastest time ever will be back tomorrow. I expect the Ducks to score at least a dozen points in the relays (form charts have them scoring zero), or enough to put them into the hunt for a 4-peat.
Almost seems like a recruiting faux pas for a team trying to defend a national title (Oregon) to not have a single potential point in the field events (or multi).
aaronk wrote:In the March issue of T&FN, predictions are made for the upcoming NCAA's indoor. Here are T&FN's predictions (made about 6 weeks before the meet??)....with brief comments by me:
Men:
mile--Bayer (O'Hare is CR holder!!) [Bayer is not back to full strength yet, but 1st at NCAAs and 4th at the Trials...] 3000--Lalang (No problem!) 5000--Lalang (Ditto!)[he is not in it but even if he were Kennedy Kithuka would beat him again, although LL might get the 3000] 4X400--Ark.
400--Dixon (By George, I'll pick Regina!! )[I would put my money on Spencer]
Your 4x400's are off!
Women: Texas Longhorns [Oregon does not have that great a seed time, but given what English Gardner did last time, she may have a pretty strong anchor here compared to the mark she did in that seed race.]
I believe the Ducks have been sandbagging a bit on both the DMR and 4x400 with their best times coming 6 and 4 weeks ago, respectively. The same team that shattered the field in last year's outdoor championships with the second fastest time ever will be back tomorrow. I expect the Ducks to score at least a dozen points in the relays (form charts have them scoring zero), or enough to put them into the hunt for a 4-peat.
I believe Oregon women will win the DMR! I just don't see it in the 4x400! Texas, Florida & Arkansas are going to run faster times in the final heat! Oregon has a better chance outdoors.
Regina George will win the 400mtrs!
Last edited by TxHottrack on Fri Mar 08, 2013 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
Well, they only get a limited number of scholarships and they have had top competitors in field events, most notably in the Pent/Hept. It takes a while for the next generation of scorers to develop.
TxHottrack wrote:I believe Oregon women will win the DMR! I just don't see it in the 4x400! Texas, Florida & Arkansas are going to run faster times in the final heat! Oregon has a better chance outdoors.
Question, in at least some conference championships teams that have an entry in the 4x400 and that are in contention for the team title are put together in the same section. Does anyone know what the rule is here? Of course, indoors and outdoors are different because of the nature of the indoor track and the limited number of slots in a section (versus eight outdoors).
26mi235 wrote:Well, they only get a limited number of scholarships and they have had top competitors in field events, most notably in the Pent/Hept. It takes a while for the next generation of scorers to develop.
And for next year they've recruited Haley Crouser.
26mi235 wrote:Question, in at least some conference championships teams that have an entry in the 4x400 and that are in contention for the team title are put together in the same section. Does anyone know what the rule is here? Of course, indoors and outdoors are different because of the nature of the indoor track and the limited number of slots in a section (versus eight outdoors).
The live results page already lists what teams are in what heat, so I guess they're not gonna change it.
26mi235 wrote:Question, in at least some conference championships teams that have an entry in the 4x400 and that are in contention for the team title are put together in the same section. Does anyone know what the rule is here? Of course, indoors and outdoors are different because of the nature of the indoor track and the limited number of slots in a section (versus eight outdoors).
The live results page already lists what teams are in what heat, so I guess they're not gonna change it.
That is irrelevant if the rule is not the rule that you are assuming. The fact that the listing shows a plan that cannot at this point make the adjustments that are made in some championship meets does not mean that the adjustments cannot be made. i will guarantee you that if you go look at some meets, for instance the Big Ten last May, you will see that they live results page listed teams in the 4x400 sections that were not the way the 4x400 sections were finally run. Note, this really only applies to the 4x400.
26mi235 wrote:Question, in at least some conference championships teams that have an entry in the 4x400 and that are in contention for the team title are put together in the same section. Does anyone know what the rule is here? Of course, indoors and outdoors are different because of the nature of the indoor track and the limited number of slots in a section (versus eight outdoors).
The live results page already lists what teams are in what heat, so I guess they're not gonna change it.
That is irrelevant if the rule is not the rule that you are assuming. The fact that the listing shows a plan that cannot at this point make the adjustments that are made in some championship meets does not mean that the adjustments cannot be made. i will guarantee you that if you go look at some meets, for instance the Big Ten last May, you will see that they live results page listed teams in the 4x400 sections that were not the way the 4x400 sections were finally run. Note, this really only applies to the 4x400.
Big 10 is the one conference I'm aware of which runs its 4x400 final in the manner you're describing.
26mi235 wrote:Well, they only get a limited number of scholarships and they have had top competitors in field events, most notably in the Pent/Hept. It takes a while for the next generation of scorers to develop.
And for next year they've recruited Haley Crouser.
It should further be noted that Haley is planning to compete in the multis (she's a great hurdler as well as javelin thrower). Prandini and the Monteverde sisters are young but talented in the LJ (Prandini was the national champ in 2011), Alyssa Monteverde has been injured but will compete in the mults and Anginae Monteverde was third nationally in the HS PV in 2011, so the prospects look good. Sure missing Brianne Theisen's automatic 10 points this year, not to mention the half dozen points Gergel (PV) and Youngblood (LJ) were always good for.
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