aaronk wrote: With a 58.6 last 400, I'm now predicting she can beat ANY United States runner now! Including Simpson, Uceny et al! I'm certain that, if it had been necessary, she could have run FASTER that last quarter....maybe 57 or 56!!
We don't know if she can kick with the likes of Uceny and Simpson off a low 4:00 pace. She should be eventually but she'd need to be able to run close to 4:00 to kick off that kind of pace. That might be a bit much right now.
She probably is in the top 3 or 4 Americans right now pending on who shows up healthy Outdoors.
She won a race she should have won which is a good thing.
Agree with most of what you stated here, except for the last statment. I'm probably just dense, but I did not think prior to the event that this was a race that she should win. I thought she could, maybe, win, but she was only superior to two of the other six runners: Mecke (mile PB 4:39, 2013) and Koch (1500 PB 4:18, 2012). As for the other four, they have clearly superior resumes:
Moser 4:03 PB and 4:09 from last year. 2006 WIC finalist, other WC too, and multiple USATF championships, iirc.
Felnagle 4:08 PB last year, 7th at OT and iirc also NCAA 1500 m champion
Vaughn 4:08 PB last year & ran at 2012 WIC (but did not advance to final, irrc)
Bowman Brown 4:05 PB & 4:08 last year, 6th at OT, 8th at 2010 WIC, & iirc also NCAA champion indoors.
That's four very good (in the context of USA) 1500/mile runners with success at the national
Cain's been at a higher level this year. I was pretty comfortable she would win particularly since she has demonstrated the best close of all of them.
I see that Sarah Baxter opened with a 10:35 today. I wonder when the Rematch will occur. Their strengths are different of course, which just makes it that much more interesting.
unclezadok wrote:I see that Sarah Baxter opened with a 10:35 today. I wonder when the Rematch will occur. Their strengths are different of course, which just makes it that much more interesting.
Interesting. What were the specifics of Baxter's run? Competition? Splits? Was it mainly a test run, to gauge her fitness?
If she runs NB next week, I imagine she'll go MUCH faster!!
More questions:
Was her 16:00 Mt SAC run OVERrated?? Just what does that mark translate to on the track? Could she break 16:00 in a TRACK 5K??
(If she can break 16:00 on a track, then she could run about 10:00 or faster for two miles!!)
Here is a post from someone at that race; note she doubled also. I do not mean to indicate that you were indicating a problem for Baxter, just noting the race.
First of all, I suspect the OP is a troll hoping Baxter would get bashed.
So lets not take this out of context.....I was at the meet. She literally JOGGED both races. Her coach only lets her go all out for the big meets. Last Year she ran a 10:44 3200 the week before she ran the 10:08 at Arcadia. This year in XC she ran 16:12 on an all flat course and later when on to run 16 flat on the hilliest course in the nation. This conservative "holding her back" approach taken by her coach is in my opinion a large reason for her success.
By the way, Cain has previously done better on the track than in cross country. Part of that is the distances involved, although her 3000 indicates a better long performance now. I wonder if part of it is also things like balance and the ability to run on varying surfaces, etc. Straightening out her running issues will probably help her run better on XC courses, and her speed should help her handle the pace/effort variation that you face in XC. We will have to see what she does next year -- will she even run high school XC. I think that there is probably more reason to do so than for track this year, as she faces stiffer competition and the Footlocker race (she should skip the NXN 'race') is historically important.
I'm sorry but as a track fan since 1980 that women's 1500m race was utter garbage. 5:05.68? Seriously?! Yuk. That wasn't a race, it was tempo run. Even the announcer was embarrassed when he said, "This is what we would call a tactical race." Gee, really? Good to see Mary Cain do well and win the race. But all this talk about Cain being one of the top women's 1500m runners in the US right is way too premature. I'll wait until Cain beats Simpson, Uceny, Rowbury, Pierce, Schmidt, etc outdoors head-to-head..
4:24-miler wrote:all this talk about Cain being one of the top women's 1500m runners in the US right is way too premature. I'll wait until Cain beats Simpson, Uceny, Rowbury, Pierce, Schmidt, etc outdoors head-to-head..
Too late. Her times and this kick already makes her "one of the best".
4:24-miler wrote:all this talk about Cain being one of the top women's 1500m runners in the US right is way too premature. I'll wait until Cain beats Simpson, Uceny, Rowbury, Pierce, Schmidt, etc outdoors head-to-head..
Too late. Her times and this kick already makes her "one of the best".
4:24-miler wrote:I'm sorry but as a track fan since 1980 that women's 1500m race was utter garbage. 5:05.68? Seriously?! Yuk. That wasn't a race, it was tempo run. Even the announcer was embarrassed when he said, "This is what we would call a tactical race." Gee, really? Good to see Mary Cain do well and win the race. But all this talk about Cain being one of the top women's 1500m runners in the US right is way too premature. I'll wait until Cain beats Simpson, Uceny, Rowbury, Pierce, Schmidt, etc outdoors head-to-head..
What do you define as "one of the best"? top 3, top 5, top 10? She is already mixing it up with some notable runners and winning. She is a national champion at age 16, though the field did not include many notables. But the truth is, that Uceny, Simpson, Rowbury, all would struggle to run a 58+ last 400 under the same conditions in altitude, if they could do it at all. So while she has yet to prove she can hang with the best at a fast pace, she clearly served notice she is going to have to be reckoned with in a tactical race, and that alone makes her "one of the best" in my opinion. I think you would be hard pressed to find 5 or 6 U.S. women who could beat her under any conditions, so, lets just say she is top 10. Would that be "one of the best"?
The sky is the limit for her. Come the outdoor season it will be fun to watch her mix it up with the best.
Last edited by odelltrclan on Mon Mar 04, 2013 12:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4:24-miler wrote:all this talk about Cain being one of the top women's 1500m runners in the US right is way too premature. I'll wait until Cain beats Simpson, Uceny, Rowbury, Pierce, Schmidt, etc outdoors head-to-head..
Too late. Her times and this kick already makes her "one of the best".
We shall see.
4:28 is quite a time to discount
her 4"11 was23rd rated time before salazar got involved
Here's my DREAM of a perfect OUTdoor season for Mary:
Mt SAC: In her first outdoor race of 2013, she runs 15:28.62 for 5000 meters, shattering Emily Sisson's 15:48.91 for a new HSR. She finishes 2nd behind Shannon Rowbury's 15:23.50, despite running her final 400 in 60.45!!
Penn: In her return to the HS Girl's one mile, Cain runs her last lap in 57.23 for a final time of 4:33.58, easily beating Erin Finn, who runs 4:38.10.
Stanford Cardinal: In a special Women's two mile race, she runs 9:18.98 for two miles, timed enroute at 3000 meters in 8:46.15, shattering two HSR's....finally removing Lynn Bjorklund's venerable 9:08.6 from 1975 from the books!! Cain wins this race, as the top 1500 women run the mile.
Prefontaine: She runs the one mile in 4:24.00, passing 1500 meters in 4:07.83, for two more HSR's. But she finishes only 3rd behind Morgan Uceny's 4:22.01 and Jenny Simpson's 4:22.36.
USATF (WC Trials): Cain makes the WC team, finishing 2nd in 4:07.89 over 1500 meters. Morgan Uceny wins it in 4:07.11, with CWT second in 4:07.34.
World Youth: Cain runs 1:59.93 for 800 meters, breaking Kim Gallagher's HSR friom 1982!! She wins the race, second place being 2:00.26.
WC: Cain makes it to the final, running her semi in 4:08.55, in what is described as a "tactical" race. She runs her final 400 in 57.04, her last 200 in 27.23!! She finishes 7th in the final, running 4:05.02 for another HSR!!
i think world youth is the primary event for cain outdoor isn't cain taking a break now going on vacation, if rupp and fatrah deserved a break so has mary cain
i know the hs coach who is in charge of the girlsmile and 3k, which are on thursday
there is an open womens mileonsatruday, which might beselected over the hs events
may 25 diamond league meet ny does have a mile
i see cain squeezing in 800 in prep for ukraine to sharpen her speed
those 200 and 400 final laps are a bit fast
i think salazar showed yesterday, winning counts more than fast times
i think womens 1500 team for moscow will be uceny rowbury pierce, doesnt simpson get the auto for winning in daegu
ukraine trials in illionoise june 25,26
moscow trails in desmoines june 20-23
i think des moines is bad to do before world youth trials
4:24-miler wrote:I'm sorry but as a track fan since 1980 that women's 1500m race was utter garbage. 5:05.68? Seriously?! Yuk. That wasn't a race, it was tempo run. Even the announcer was embarrassed when he said, "This is what we would call a tactical race." Gee, really? Good to see Mary Cain do well and win the race. But all this talk about Cain being one of the top women's 1500m runners in the US right is way too premature. I'll wait until Cain beats Simpson, Uceny, Rowbury, Pierce, Schmidt, etc outdoors head-to-head..
What do you define as "one of the best"? top 3, top 5, top 10? She is already mixing it up with some notable runners and winning. She is a national champion at age 16, though the field did not include many notables. But the truth is, that Uceny, Simpson, Rowbury, all would struggle to run a 58+ last 400 under the same conditions in altitude, if they could do it at all. So while she has yet to prove she can hang with the best at a fast pace, she clearly served notice she is going to have to be reckoned with in a tactical race, and that alone makes her "one of the best" in my opinion. I think you would be hard pressed to find 5 or 6 U.S. women who could beat her under any conditions, so, lets just say she is top 10. Would that be "one of the best"?
The sky is the limit for her. Come the outdoor season it will be fun to watch her mix it up with the best.
Like I said "we shall see". People are already anointing her as "the queen". The moment Cain struggles or starts having injuries people will turn on her. Just like Alan Webb. Remember him? He was supposed to break world records and win WC/Olympic titles. It didn't work out that way, did it? I'll wait until Cain actually beat America's best lady 1500m runners outdoors when it counts before I join the bandwagon. I do hope Cain does well those outdoor season.
Mary Cain, women’s mile champion: ”I wouldn’t do it if it wasn’t fun. We were hanging out at dinner and having a lot of good laughs, and I just love it”
I am really enjoying the rise of this talented young runner. (Ditto for Ajee Wilson, by the way.) Of course, as soon as Cain doesn't live up to someone's expectations, for whatever reason, someone -- some people -- will turn on her. I don't read Letsrun, but I'm sure someone there already has turned on her. You don't really have to "fail," as such -- all you have to do is not meet someone's expectations. I would think every athlete, even in a small niche sport like T&F, needs to be able to deal with this. As soon as Galen Rupp earned a silver medal in London, there were those who immediately pointed out how he failed to win gold, etc. I can think of so many other examples. Cain gives the impression of someone who can handle this sort of bs. But who knows? We will see...maybe in 20 years she'll be getting ready for one more go at the WC. After all, she'll only be 36yo. I hope to be around for that.
And while she does give every indication of having the talent to be the USA's best, or among the best, at this distance, I would expect such development to take some time. Salazar does not give any indication as a coach that he is inclined to rush anything. And, at this point Cain is officially a 4:11 1500m runner. I do think she can go faster this year, but there is a lot of distance between being "around 4:10" and "around 4:00."
I am equally impressed, at least, with Ajee Wilson. Let's remind ourselves of her resume in national and international championship meets...
2009 AAU JO 1st 2010 USATF Jr 1st 2011 USA World Youth Trials 1st 2012 USATF/OT semifinal 2012 USATF Jr 1st 2013 USATF Indoor 1st
2010 WJC 5th 2011 WYC gold 2012 WJC gold
While some of these did not have deep competition, each was a 2-round or 3-round championship. Wilson is demonstrating in her own way some real racing sense that is required for success in this event. And while it may seem premature to compare Wilson with the great Kim Gallagher, her place next to Gallagher on the a-t prep list invites the comparison, and at this point her development isn't far off where Gallagher was at a comparable age. Gallagher was about one month past her 18th birthday when she ran her 2:00.07. Wilson was about 2 months past her 18th birthday when she ran her 2:00.91 at the WJC. But -- there is also a lot of distance between being a 2:00-2:02 runner and a 1:58 or faster runner. I think she will get there, but that improvement is likely to be harder than anything she's done so far.
I hope both Cain and Wilson continue to develop along the path of their success so far!
Master Po wrote:I am really enjoying the rise of this talented young runner. (Ditto for Ajee Wilson, by the way.) Of course, as soon as Cain doesn't live up to someone's expectations, for whatever reason, someone -- some people -- will turn on her. I don't read Letsrun, but I'm sure someone there already has turned on her. You don't really have to "fail," as such -- all you have to do is not meet someone's expectations. I would think every athlete, even in a small niche sport like T&F, needs to be able to deal with this. As soon as Galen Rupp earned a silver medal in London, there were those who immediately pointed out how he failed to win gold, etc. I can think of so many other examples. Cain gives the impression of someone who can handle this sort of bs. But who knows? We will see...maybe in 20 years she'll be getting ready for one more go at the WC. After all, she'll only be 36yo. I hope to be around for that.
And while she does give every indication of having the talent to be the USA's best, or among the best, at this distance, I would expect such development to take some time. Salazar does not give any indication as a coach that he is inclined to rush anything. And, at this point Cain is officially a 4:11 1500m runner. I do think she can go faster this year, but there is a lot of distance between being "around 4:10" and "around 4:00."
I can see wanting to take a reserved position in praising Ms. Cain however her 4:28 puts her at something likely at or under 4:09 indoors. While improvement may not be linear and assuming good health I'd have to think that she's going to run 4:06 or so this year and that might be conservative. She's also shown the ability to race which is refreshing.
aaronk wrote:Ebonie Floyd won the Women's 400 meters "A" race in 52.02!!
Mary Cain won the Women's 400 meters "B" race in 58.6!!
And now, for the Women's ONE MILE results......
LOL
Cain jumped the gun using both a rolling start and having a reaction time of 0.00 seconds. If the third 400 had gone as slowly as the first two, then the efforts prior to that last 400 would not have taken much out of her and so a 400 time might almost be expected. Note that some of the distance stars can race faster than Mary can for for 3000m for a full 9000m and then close as fast as she did here without having 1200m at 82/400 right before.
Master Po wrote:I am really enjoying the rise of this talented young runner. (Ditto for Ajee Wilson, by the way.) Of course, as soon as Cain doesn't live up to someone's expectations, for whatever reason, someone -- some people -- will turn on her. I don't read Letsrun, but I'm sure someone there already has turned on her. You don't really have to "fail," as such -- all you have to do is not meet someone's expectations. I would think every athlete, even in a small niche sport like T&F, needs to be able to deal with this. As soon as Galen Rupp earned a silver medal in London, there were those who immediately pointed out how he failed to win gold, etc. I can think of so many other examples. Cain gives the impression of someone who can handle this sort of bs. But who knows? We will see...maybe in 20 years she'll be getting ready for one more go at the WC. After all, she'll only be 36yo. I hope to be around for that.
And while she does give every indication of having the talent to be the USA's best, or among the best, at this distance, I would expect such development to take some time. Salazar does not give any indication as a coach that he is inclined to rush anything. And, at this point Cain is officially a 4:11 1500m runner. I do think she can go faster this year, but there is a lot of distance between being "around 4:10" and "around 4:00."
I can see wanting to take a reserved position in praising Ms. Cain however her 4:28 puts her at something likely at or under 4:09 indoors. While improvement may not be linear and assuming good health I'd have to think that she's going to run 4:06 or so this year and that might be conservative. She's also shown the ability to race which is refreshing.
Dutra -- I completely agree with you. I also feel that she's at a sub-4:10 level now, even though her official times at that distance are 4:11, and thus I would not be surprised to see her get to the 4:06-ish this year. I especially agree w you regarding her race sense. (And I feel that your assessment is itself properly "reserved" in comparison with some that I've heard/read. I was simply trying not to overstate things, but certainly don't want to diminish what's obvious -- she's having a great year so far, and has great potential.)
aaronk wrote:Ebonie Floyd won the Women's 400 meters "A" race in 52.02!!
Mary Cain won the Women's 400 meters "B" race in 58.6!!
And now, for the Women's ONE MILE results......
LOL
Cain jumped the gun using both a rolling start and having a reaction time of 0.00 seconds. If the third 400 had gone as slowly as the first two, then the efforts prior to that last 400 would not have taken much out of her and so a 400 time might almost be expected. Note that some of the distance stars can race faster than Mary can for for 3000m for a full 9000m and then close as fast as she did here without having 1200m at 82/400 right before.
Hey 26mi235 !! Do you ever have anything positive to say about anybody? Why is it that you always feel you must find a way to minimise the wonderful achievements of an athlete, this time the amazing young Mary Cain? Why can't you just for once bask in the glory of her great performances rather than try to convince us that she is not really that good. She is good mate. She is really good.
aaronk wrote:Ebonie Floyd won the Women's 400 meters "A" race in 52.02!!
Mary Cain won the Women's 400 meters "B" race in 58.6!!
And now, for the Women's ONE MILE results......
LOL
Cain jumped the gun using both a rolling start and having a reaction time of 0.00 seconds. If the third 400 had gone as slowly as the first two, then the efforts prior to that last 400 would not have taken much out of her and so a 400 time might almost be expected. Note that some of the distance stars can race faster than Mary can for for 3000m for a full 9000m and then close as fast as she did here without having 1200m at 82/400 right before.
so if you run 9:04 pace for 9k, thats 27:15 and given the wr for 10k is 29:31 running 27:15 with a faster kick is sub 28:15, a wr by more than a full minute the logic above does not apply, cain 3k time is too fast
he cant admit cain is really good, treat her as a 16 year old
some want to use zola budd as the model for mary cain
ok, fine, use the 1500, at age 17 budd ran 4:06.87 Bloemfontein 28 OCT
at age 16 mary cain ran 4:11.01 so cain needs slightly over 4 second improvement which is possible given 2011 to 2012 was 4:17 to 4:11, over a 6 second inprovement
and 2012 miletime was 4:39 and 2013 is 4:28, 11 seconds i think 4 seconds can happen
best youth time of 2012 was 4:06.06 of teferi
while jessica judd did 4:09.93 5th in barcelona one spot ahead of cain
i lloked at all world youth and the chinese from the 1990dominate
Tuariki wrote:Hey 26mi235 !! Do you ever have anything positive to say about anybody?
Cain is great; I just point out the other side of the comparison (we all know it was run at the end of the race and is very impressive and very 'valuable' in the broader scheme), so the RT/moving at the start is useful to keep in mind when looking at the last quarter of the race.
Tuariki wrote:Hey 26mi235 !! Do you ever have anything positive to say about anybody?
Cain is great; I just point out the other side of the comparison (we all know it was run at the end of the race and is very impressive and very 'valuable' in the broader scheme), so the RT/moving at the start is useful to keep in mind when looking at the last quarter of the race.
Besides which, it was a joke, I say, it was a joke, son!
