world junior 2014 eugene

[az2004]

http://www.iaaf.org/competitions/iaaf-w ... timetable/

the meet is a six day meet

day 1 3000 final

800
day 1 heat
day 2 semis
day 3 finals

1500
day 4 heat
day 6 finals

this looks very favorable for cain

800,1500,3000 are all possible

as 3000 finals and heat of 800 look doable

[gh]

That's only half the equation, of course. She has to get there first, and that kind of triple in a 3-day meet doesn't leave much wiggle room. At last year's USATF Juniors (this year's schedule not out yet) the 1500 and 3000 finals were an hour apart.

[tandfman]

I would hope that the timetable for the 2014 US juniors would take into account the possible doubles at the World Juniors.

The grand slam home run, of course, would be if Cain has committed to Oregon by then. That would really be a crowd enhancer.

[26mi235]

Yes, especially with athletes that ran away from her last time. Yes, she has had good marks, but her recent record in the mile is inferior to the 4:11 that was merely an also ran to a 4:05 winner. For US runners, the longer the race, the lower the likelihood of getting first (and second); as Ajee won the 800 and a similar quality Cain (by some people's reckoning) was fourth or fifth the next distance up.

[tandfman]

Yes, especially with athletes that ran away from her last time. Yes, she has had good marks, but her recent record in the mile is inferior to the 4:11 that was merely an also ran to a 4:05 winner.

Puh-leez! Cain was 16 years old at the time; the winner was 18. Cain was younger than everyone ahead of her in that race.

[az2004]

i think 800 and 1500 might be her options for 2013 world youth in ukraine

she has the option for 3000 too, but the meet is a 4 day meet in ukraine

trials in june is a 2 day meet, and i suspect alberto salazar picks 2 of the 3 events

800,1500, 3000

or alberto picks only 1 event the 1500

llooking at the usa youth options in 800,1500,3000 the gap between cain and anyone else is huge

surely salazar knows who the competition internationally may be

at the YOUTH level i'll post the marks cain needs this year

i do agree, JUNIOR meet is far tougher than YOUTH

so 1500 only might be the option, but for the YOUTH meets 800 and 1500 easily fit, but does she want gold?? do 1500


26mi235 fails to comprehend how good cain can be

[az2004]

i'm using 2012 list to see where junior eligible fit, just like i did forthe world youth

2:00.96Jessica Judd GBR

2:02.57 AMonique Stander RSA

2:03.15Aníta Hinriksdóttir ISL

2:03.34Mary Cain USA

no more juniors listed

so cain is 4th rated junior going into the meet, not too bad

800 might well be an option going into the meet

[az2004]

now the 1500 for those eligible for the meet

4:08.28Senbere Teferi ETH

4:09.93Jessica Judd GBR

4:11.01Mary Cain USA

4:11.98Alem Gereziher ETH

4:13.68Sofia Ennaoui POL

4:15.98Saki Yoshimizu JPN

4:16.45Monique Stander RSA

CAIN is #3 going into the meet now and looks to be in the mix for 2014

[doug5321]

not really young kenyans/ethiopians are always emerging, and even if they have run races it is usually at altitude and they often dont keep track after 3rd place.

the 19 year old girl from burundi only started running last year, her first couple of races she thought she had to stay in her lane the whole way in an 800 and ran 2:02, a few months later she ran 1:56.5, there are no records of her running before 2012 and that she was so inexperienced she did not ever go to lane 1 in an 800 shows she really did not have experience.

salazar will just develop cain to the best of her ability, and that should result in medals.

[az2004]

agree fully at the youth level, kids emerge so fast atan elite level

so far cain is 4th at 800 and 3rd at 1500

i suspect the junior level is more fragile than the youth level

my point in this exercise is cain is in the mix, can make the finals, and as current data is available is in the mix for racing for a medal

i think her KICK makes her dangerous

i agree fully salazar knows who is good and who is a threat

medals, not records drive salazar

[az2004]

3000 now, and i have to use 9:04 for cain, oddly the leading returner ran the 2 mile in boston

9:00.97Gotytom Gebreslase ETH

9:06.91Miyuki Uehara JPN

9:08.32Alemitu Heroye ETH

9:08.88Mercy Chebwogen KEN

9:09.27Hiwot Gebrekidan ETH

9:12.91Shiori Yano JPN

9:13.30Maki Izumida JPN

9:13.34Sakurako Yamamoto JPN

9:13.38Yuki Maekawa JPN

9:14.32Brillian Jepkorir Kipkoech KEN

so cain is #2 behind a girl she beat in boston
#4 in 800 #3 in 1500 #2 at 3000

[26mi235]

Yes, especially with athletes that ran away from her last time. Yes, she has had good marks, but her recent record in the mile is inferior to the 4:11 that was merely an also ran to a 4:05 winner.

Puh-leez! Cain was 16 years old at the time; the winner was 18. Cain was younger than everyone ahead of her in that race.

Not too many of those behind here were younger... As for the leading returner, the best of them might not even have been in the race because they were not as good as the ones a bit older. Beware of the 17-year old Kenyans that you have not yet seen.

You seem to be semi-certain that the trajectory of the last 24 months will be maintained, whereas history has shown that those that get very good very early progress as a more modest pace thereafter, with ups and downs thrown in.

[aaronk]

I'm probably the LAST person you'd expect to say this, but.....I think we're putting the cart WAY before the horse here.
I LOVE to predict what Cain is CAPABLE of....or SHOULD be capable of in a year or two.
But I agree with most of you......let's see what she does from race to race the rest of THIS year, before we go off predicting what she'll do in 2014....or 2016!!

After she signed with Salazar (or shook hands??), I was VERY doubtful of her going after records.
NOT because of lack of ability, but because I thought Salazar would emphasize development and training, and not concentrate on her breaking records.

In fact, during CC, I wasn't even sure she'd race indoors.....AT ALL!!!
I thought Salazar might have her train through the winter, only having her race outdoors, maybe beginning at Penn.

So I was THRILLED when she ran in Seattle.....except that they chose Seattle, with its OT, instead of a "legal" track, where her possible record would BE a record!!
And then when it was announced she'd race at least twice more indoors....in ELITE races.....I WAS ecstatic!!

This indoor season has been MUCH more than I'd hoped it would be for Cain.
And now....after Millrose and whatever else she does indoors....I'm ready to be surprised AGAIN at what her racing schedule outdoors might be!!

[az2004]

on the east coast, indoor is a major happening, particularly in hs, so i'm not surprised cain has had 4 races for her indoor reason

no 800s though, she had a couple against ajee wilson though, so i suspect more 800 specific training is next for outdoor prep

the only meet i think we can look to is world youth in ukraine, which is 6 months away