T&FN Moscow Predictions


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T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby mump boy » Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:22 pm

I know it's WAY too early but there are some very odd picks here :shock:

http://www.trackandfieldnews.com/index. ... -only/1485
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:11 pm

It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. Tyson Gay not in the medals? Strangely no Rupp for a distance medal? I'm not sure Demus will beat Natalya Antyukh in the hurdles

I like Antonina Krivoshapka but she never performs at championships, like most Russian 400m runners, otherwise they are loaded, but Christine Ohuruoghu proved at the Olympics her championship quality and how she can run a 49 second lap when required in a big race. Jelimo over Savinova and Seymenya? Seymenya may be the fastest by some way and Savinova is proven to be a great championship performer with absolutely flawless judgement of pacing and position and the best last 80m in the world.

Jenn Shur over Yelena Isinbaeva? Not when issy isn't injured. I expect another Isinbayeva world record some time this year.


However one big call I agree with is Savitskaya for a Heptathlon medal. However I think the 7 event medal competition will be MASSIVE and veyr open. I'm expecting 2nd/3rd to maybe 6th to be quite close.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby athleticshushmail » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:25 pm

I don't think Jason Young will qualify for the Moscow. Mike Roger's personal best is 9.85 which won't be enough for a medal. Chepseba will run faster than Centrowitz. The Kenyans will sweep the steeple, and they will take gold in the marathon.Tony Mcquay is not ready to beat a Borlee yet, but the 400 is pretty open for silver and bronze. All in all, though, I thought it was a good list.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Pego » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:45 pm

What woke me up was no medal predicted for Špotáková. I'd take that bet :wink: .
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Marlow » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:54 pm

mump boy wrote:I know it's WAY too early but there are some very odd picks here :shock:

Not so much odd as 'wishful thinking' on some people's parts. The one thing we know for certain is that about 40% of those people will NOT medal. :wink:
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby iain » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:05 pm

TBH I'm not sure much thought has gone into this list :P
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:08 pm

Pego wrote:What woke me up was no medal predicted for Špotáková. I'd take that bet :wink: .



You're on!

I know she is taking time off this year for a baby :lol:
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby LopenUupunut » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:23 pm

There are certainly some interesting picks but on the whole, I thought they were saner than T&FN's early predictions normally are. Not sure I see Heidler winning though; Lysenko is hard enough to beat when she doesn't have home advantage, and Włodarczyk seemed to be getting back in top shape too...

No Kozmus?
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Pego » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:48 pm

eldanielfire wrote:
Pego wrote:What woke me up was no medal predicted for Špotáková. I'd take that bet :wink: .



You're on!

I know she is taking time off this year for a baby :lol:


That might do it :D .
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby gh » Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:15 pm

eldanielfire wrote:It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. ....


Yes, amazing what happens when you let a Brit (truly!) do the picks.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Marlow » Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:33 pm

gh wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. ....

Yes, amazing what happens when you let a Brit (truly!) do the picks.

Whaddya expect?!
Limeys always have a foreboding sense of doom of their own chances, and they detest the other Euro-types, so they automatically go with Yanks.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby mump boy » Sun Feb 03, 2013 4:34 pm

Don't get me wrong i know this is just a bit of fun and if i did them i'm sure there would be some equally individual choices but there are some predictions here that i see absolutely no evidence for at all.

i can't think of 1 thing that points to Mike Rodgers medalling !!

I'm not saying Mo will do another double but i can't see any evidence that he won't either and none that Gebremeskel or Jaylan necessarily be the ones to do it

400h looks like names picked out of a hat,

Who even knows who'll get selected for KEN marathon (or what the selection policy will be) :?

i don't think Adam Gemilli is enough to compensate for GBR's increasingly elderly sprinters

Surely TBO has to be a medal favourite

The rest i can live with :D
Last edited by mump boy on Mon Feb 04, 2013 3:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Tuariki » Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:12 pm

The predictions seem to be as sane and as reasonable as any other list someone else might come up with.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby AS » Sun Feb 03, 2013 9:56 pm

The Rodgers pick does seem very odd. Surely Ryan Bailey is a stronger contender?

But given 4 Jamaicans in both men's sprints, I'm putting my money on double sweeps.

I'm stunned by the lack of Rupp (and Mary Cain :))
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby GDAWG » Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:11 pm

I see that an exact repeat of the Women's 100 Meter Hurdles from the Olympics is predicted. A bronze for Kellie Wells in Moscow would be redemption for Daegu.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby John G » Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:56 am

mump boy wrote:I'm not saying Mo will do another double but i can't see any evidence that he won't either and none that Gebremeskel or Jaylan necessarily be the ones to do it


Just watch the last 500m of the London 5k again. Gebremeskel made a horrible mess of it (watch his reaction at the end). He was physically as good as Mo on the day. Given their ages and number of years at the top you'd expect Gebr to be on a steeper improvement curve. Add in the likelihood that motivation will be a challenge for Mo this year and I think this is a very sensible pick.

Going for Jeylan on the other hand is harder to justify - he's had one truly great race in all his life and even then, Mo's tactical mistake may have been the deciding factor.

I'd go for Rupp to at least get silver.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby John G » Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:00 am

I bet Bolt isn't even there. His injury problems will just get worse and motivation will be a problem (especially when Blake runs even faster).
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:37 am

how blake runs early might well be the key factor in what bolt does , we have the jamaican trials in june so bolt winter training should tell us where he is

but thinking back to berlin after beijing, bolt had a good berlin

but bolt is getting older
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:32 am

Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby ATK » Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:54 am

eldanielfire wrote:Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?

But I wouldn't put Bolt on the incline either.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby John G » Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:00 am

eldanielfire wrote:Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?


Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered.

Hope I'm totally wrong!!
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Pego » Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:11 am

John G wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?


Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered.

Hope I'm totally wrong!!


I think you are right on.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Marlow » Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:48 am

Pego wrote:
John G wrote:Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered. Hope I'm totally wrong!!

I think you are right on.

Despite his enormous talent, Bolt has had to put in a TON of work to get as ridiculously fast as he has been. At some point the body just can't respond any more. Christie/Fredericks were beautiful exceptions, but I do think there's a price to pay for UB's achievements. But, as I have noted in the past, I refuse to be surprised by ANYTHING he does any more, so I'm not even writing off the possibility of a new round of records!! :shock: :shock:
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Feb 04, 2013 10:35 am

John G wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:Bolt is 26 and will be 29 in Rio. I think its safe to say he isn't close to the downward slope yet. However can Blake keep his improvements going at the rate he has and avoid injury?


Of course you're right - 26 is very young and you only need to look at people like Fredericks and Christie to see what can be done in the late 20s / early 30s. However, at the risk of re-hashing an old topic, personally I think it is more about how many years you have been training and competing at a high level and how many injuries you have suffered.

Hope I'm totally wrong!!


Fair enough but Bolt has been taking it easy these past few years due to his back and Jamaicans have a good record of lengthy careers these days.

Also, lets not forget when has Bolt really put his all into races? Unlike most before him he's rarely put his all into any race ever whihc may extend his career.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby lonewolf » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:32 am

I am skeptical that Bolt will improve his 100 and 200 times. To be the undisputed all around sprint GOAT, he should overcome his admitted aversion to discomfort in training and proceed directly to obliterate the 400 record. That accomplished, he can concentrate on the LJ record for which, I think, he is uniquely qualifed by physique and speed to break.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:45 am

lonewolf wrote:I am skeptical that Bolt will improve his 100 and 200 times. To be the undisputed all around sprint GOAT, he should overcome his admitted aversion to discomfort in training and proceed directly to obliterate the 400 record. That accomplished, he can concentrate on the LJ record for which, I think, he is uniquely qualifed by physique and speed to break.


He said after the olympics he felt he could have won the 200m in a WR but didn't think it was worth the strain on his back. He breezed the 100m and was close enough to suggest a healthy Bolt has more another 9.5x time in him.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby lonewolf » Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:50 pm

eldanielfire wrote:[He said after the olympics he felt he could have won the 200m in a WR but didn't think it was worth the strain on his back. He breezed the 100m and was close enough to suggest a healthy Bolt has more another 9.5x time in him.

Ok. Having never been in a comparable situation, I don't personally know how it would "feel" but my theoretical philosophy is: If you "feel" like you could break a WR, ya might oughta go ahead and do it. :) Opportunity doesn't come along every day and you may not be ready on that day. :(
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby eldanielfire » Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:30 pm

lonewolf wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:[He said after the olympics he felt he could have won the 200m in a WR but didn't think it was worth the strain on his back. He breezed the 100m and was close enough to suggest a healthy Bolt has more another 9.5x time in him.

Ok. Having never been in a comparable situation, I don't personally know how it would "feel" but my theoretical philosophy is: If you "feel" like you could break a WR, ya might oughta go ahead and do it. :) Opportunity doesn't come along every day and you may not be ready on that day. :(


To make it clear, Bolt specifically said that he would do more damage to his delicate back if he did and after 2 bad seasons wanted to be healthy for the next season where he could perform better while fully fit unlike London.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:55 pm

lonewolf wrote:Having never been in a comparable situation, I don't personally know how it would "feel" but my theoretical philosophy is: If you "feel" like you could break a WR, ya might oughta go ahead and do it. :) Opportunity doesn't come along every day and you may not be ready on that day. :(


Well it is his record, so not so much to gain.
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby ZELLGADISS » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:59 pm

Mike Rodgers 3rd?umm sounds a joke :lol:

Gay and Gatlin ae clearly better and i think that Kemar Bailey could to get place this year in trials(i have many doubts for Asafa)
Kemar is sub 9.9 in 2013 if he is healthy :wink:
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby Fortius19 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 2:36 pm

gh wrote:
eldanielfire wrote:It is waaay too early. Very US centric list as well. No Dai Green or Jack Greene. ....


Yes, amazing what happens when you let a Brit (truly!) do the picks.



Excluding relays, 8 medals for US women and 10 for US men. Doesn't sound like a lot to me.

How are relays even counted? As one medal, or six??
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Re: T&FN Moscow Predictions

Postby gh » Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:13 pm

Relays count as 1 medal in normal charting.
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