preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]


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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 1:16 pm

here's alberto on mary cain after the race,,

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250016 ... Grand-Prix
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby unclezadok » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:17 pm

I wonder what she can do in an 800 now.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby kellits2gnv » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:23 pm

unclezadok wrote:I wonder what she can do in an 800 now.


I think it would be hard to say she cant run sub 2:02.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Master Po » Sun Feb 03, 2013 3:52 pm

unclezadok wrote:I wonder what she can do in an 800 now.


Interesting question -- she ran 2:03.34 in 2012. Seems reasonable to think she would be a bit faster now, e.g., 2:02.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Marlow » Sun Feb 03, 2013 5:05 pm

Master Po wrote:Interesting question -- she ran 2:03.34 in 2012. Seems reasonable to think she would be a bit faster now, e.g., 2:02.

Looking at the HS Records, it's hard to imagine, she couldn't own them all.

Indoors

800 2:01.8
1000 2:43.40
1500 Cain
Mile Cain
3000 Cain
2 Mile Cain
5000 16:19

Outdoors

800 2:00.07
1500 Cain
Mile 4:35.24
3000 9:08.6
2 Miles 9:54.22
5000 15:52.88
10,000 32:52.5
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Master Po » Sun Feb 03, 2013 6:11 pm

Marlow wrote:
Master Po wrote:Interesting question -- she ran 2:03.34 in 2012. Seems reasonable to think she would be a bit faster now, e.g., 2:02.

Looking at the HS Records, it's hard to imagine, she couldn't own them all.

Indoors

800 2:01.8
1000 2:43.40
1500 Cain
Mile Cain
3000 Cain
2 Mile Cain
5000 16:19

Outdoors

800 2:00.07
1500 Cain
Mile 4:35.24
3000 9:08.6
2 Miles 9:54.22
5000 15:52.88
10,000 32:52.5


Good point, Marlow. This list of records interesting to think about, for Cain. Given that she's already run faster indoors than the outdoor mile, 3k, & 2 mile records, one can reasonably think she will get those. As for the 5k records -- with the normal assumptions in place (good health, continuing development, appropriate racing opportunities) -- it seems reasonable as well to think that someone who can run 3k around 9:00 and 2 miles under 9:40 can reach these 5k records. Fewer opportunities to approach the 10k time, but it might be feasible, too.

I would think the really hard ones would be at 800, especially Kim Gallagher's 2:00.07. I know that Cain has "only" 2:03.34, so it might be easy for some to underestimate that time, and her capacity at that distance. However, when you look at the World Youth lists from 2012, only one other athlete born in 1996 was faster than Cain at 800. And, perusing the world Youth and Junior 800 lists from 2012, one sees that most -- perhaps almost all -- of the 800 times faster than hers were run in national or international competition, whereas Cain's 2:03.34 was run in a high school meet (and not a national hs invitational, or even the state championship meet, iirc). Had she run that race with other 2:01-2:03 competition, I'm confident she would already have a PB faster than 2:03.34. So, I think she has more capacity at 800, but that 2:00.07 looks daunting -- that was Kim Gallagher, after all -- an extraordinary prep athlete.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:00 pm

Master Po wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Master Po wrote:Interesting question -- she ran 2:03.34 in 2012. Seems reasonable to think she would be a bit faster now, e.g., 2:02.

Looking at the HS Records, it's hard to imagine, she couldn't own them all.

Indoors

800 2:01.8
1000 2:43.40
1500 Cain
Mile Cain
3000 Cain
2 Mile Cain
5000 16:19

Outdoors

800 2:00.07
1500 Cain
Mile 4:35.24
3000 9:08.6
2 Miles 9:54.22
5000 15:52.88
10,000 32:52.5


Good point, Marlow. This list of records interesting to think about, for Cain. Given that she's already run faster indoors than the outdoor mile, 3k, & 2 mile records, one can reasonably think she will get those. As for the 5k records -- with the normal assumptions in place (good health, continuing development, appropriate racing opportunities) -- it seems reasonable as well to think that someone who can run 3k around 9:00 and 2 miles under 9:40 can reach these 5k records. Fewer opportunities to approach the 10k time, but it might be feasible, too.

I would think the really hard ones would be at 800, especially Kim Gallagher's 2:00.07. I know that Cain has "only" 2:03.34, so it might be easy for some to underestimate that time, and her capacity at that distance. However, when you look at the World Youth lists from 2012, only one other athlete born in 1996 was faster than Cain at 800. And, perusing the world Youth and Junior 800 lists from 2012, one sees that most -- perhaps almost all -- of the 800 times faster than hers were run in national or international competition, whereas Cain's 2:03.34 was run in a high school meet (and not a national hs invitational, or even the state championship meet, iirc). Had she run that race with other 2:01-2:03 competition, I'm confident she would already have a PB faster than 2:03.34. So, I think she has more capacity at 800, but that 2:00.07 looks daunting -- that was Kim Gallagher, after all -- an extraordinary prep athlete.


The outdoor girls 5K is 15:48.91 by Emily Sisson in 2010.
Cayla Hatton is second on the out list with her 15:50.32 from the WJC last year!!

But Cain could almost certainly go sub-15:30, so if she runs one, she'll get the record!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Dutra5 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:27 pm

I agree that the 800m record is the toughest and might not be achievable. All the other ones she doesn't already hold are achievable but I'm not sure she runs a track 5000m in HS.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:55 pm

The 10,000 is as hard as that listed 5000m and probably pushes her range too much.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 4:16 am

salazar is quoted the 1500 is mary cain's sweet spot

even the 3k/2 mile is a bit long for her

i'd presume 5k/10 k would be much too lomg, the longer the race the less ideal for her

my recollection from indoor 800 last year is twotimes cain ran had ajee wilson in the race for her 2 best times and cain was 2nd both times

here's thenewbalance indoor 800 from last year

http://www.runnerspace.com/video.php?video_id=61486

i see cain 800 as her 2nd event with 1500/mile her best
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Marlow » Mon Feb 04, 2013 6:18 am

az2004 wrote:salazar is quoted the 1500 is mary cain's sweet spot

Baxter handled Cain in XC because of that, plus Baxter looks like a 'strength' (distance, the more the better) runner, while Cain is a 'speed' runner. Speed runners need to establish a set rhythm to maximize their talent. While I am now convinced that Cain could break the 5000 record, I see no urgency in it, and would agree with Salazar if they choose not to go after it.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:07 am

i think the mud was a major factor in xc

with the millrose her next announce race, interesting to see what salazar has planned for outdoor


for 2014 eugene junior, does she do both 3k and 1500??

does she skip indoor national. or give 1500 a shot

2012 she did do 800 at olumpic trial

will she give des moines a shot at 1500 for the experience..

will she try the pre meet and ny grand prix

any chance she gives europe a try

my crystal ball says she skips indoor national

penn relayshas a womens mile on saturday of the meet

id bet on pre and ny and desmoines

skip europe
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Marlow » Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:55 am

az2004 wrote:will she try the pre meet and ny grand prix
any chance she gives europe a try
my crystal ball says she skips indoor national
penn relayshas a womens mile on saturday of the meet
id bet on pre and ny and desmoines
skip europe

It's hard to remember she's ONLY 16 years old. Does one strike while the iron is hot (who knows what the future may bring?) or does one let it cool so it doesn't become brittle in the tempering (blacksmith analogy! :wink: ).
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Mon Feb 04, 2013 10:04 am

Marlow wrote:
az2004 wrote:will she try the pre meet and ny grand prix
any chance she gives europe a try
my crystal ball says she skips indoor national
penn relayshas a womens mile on saturday of the meet
id bet on pre and ny and desmoines
skip europe

It's hard to remember she's ONLY 16 years old. Does one strike while the iron is hot (who knows what the future may bring?) or does one let it cool so it doesn't become brittle in the tempering (blacksmith analogy! :wink: ).


She ain't your "normal" 16 year old!!
(Well, in her over-use of "like" and "you know" in her sentences, yes, she is!! :lol: )
In her running, and in her interviews post-race, she seems several notches above your "normal" 16 year old.
She uses good strategy, hasn't made any mistakes as far as I can see (getting boxed, falling, running a stuttered pace, etc).
But let's look at her (and other's) history.

Cain took four hours of SAT's last week, then two hours later, crushed two HSR's!!!
Cain maintains a 4.0 GPA (as far as I know), and now holds FOUR HSR's....and still attends class, does her homework, etc etc.
She sounds VERY poised in her interviews.
I mean, here she is, just a teenager, and she's the STAR of the Boston GP meet, and has many media people pressing microphones in her face, and yet she NEVER flinches, never shakes or shivers in her running shoes, and sounds (even with all those "likes" and "you knows") like a VERY well-spoken, knowledgable, and charming "kid".

As for history, Mary (Decker) Slaney, Zola Budd, Heike Drechsler, and any number of Kenyans and Ethiopians, have been at Mary's level....or better at age 16.
Cain seems to be very comfortable being who she is.
She seems to be having lots of fun, and has a great sense of humor. ("I was racing an Olympian.....for two seconds!!")
I think Mary Cain is several notches above being just a teenager!!
She may be in chronological age, but NOT in any other way!!!

I say, go for it....NOW!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 10:18 am

i think cain needs outdoor training with early season 800 to max her speed base

if we say 4:05 1500 is her target, we need to do some 800 interval work

this year has been very cold, with indoor training only possible

2014 eugene 1500 is her target

for me i'd do the 2 usa diamond league meets


25 MAY 2013

adidas Grand Prix

01 JUN 2013

Eugene SDL - Prefontaine Classic

Eugene, OR


30 JUN 2013

British Athletics Birmingham Grand Prix

Birmingham

26 JUL 2013 - 27 JUL 2013

British Athletics London Grand Prix

London (CP)

but alberto knows way more than i d, so i'm as patient as he is
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Marlow » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:04 am

az2004 wrote:i think cain needs outdoor training with early season 800 to max her speed base
if we say 4:05 1500 is her target, we need to do some 800 interval work

I'm sure Alberto is waiting breathlessly for your coaching guidance! :D :wink:
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:20 am

Marlow wrote:
az2004 wrote:i think cain needs outdoor training with early season 800 to max her speed base
if we say 4:05 1500 is her target, we need to do some 800 interval work

I'm sure Alberto is waiting breathlessly for your coaching guidance! :D :wink:




which is why i ended my message with but alberto knows way more than i d, so i'm as patient as he is

INDOORS 2012, cain had 2 800 with ajee wilson, so she had them last year

aroonk mentioned cain's 4.0+ gpa
i have a friend who went toswarthmore andmba from wharton, and lives in bronxville now, confrims cain is a top noth student, and couldgo anywhere she wanted

harvard, colombia, stanford

but is unlikely to run in college
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby KevinM » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:40 am

She wouldn't need close to normal Harvard, Columbia, Stanford credentials to run for those schools.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:50 am

the boston hs g video i found

http://usa.milesplit.com/meets/130160-n ... grand-prix

1 Wesley Frazier USA 4:48.94 4:31.46 (1500)
2 Bethanie Brown USA 4:54.57
3 Sarah Gillespie USA 4:54.81
4 Ryen Frazier USA 4:59.73
5 Katie Lembo USA 5:01.04
6 Sara Sargent USA 5:01.56
7 Sheridan Wilbur USA 5:02.40
8 Marissa Ruskan USA 5:02.96
9 Keelin Hollowood USA 5:03.53
10 Julie Williams USA 5:04.72
11 Annika Gompers USA 5:05.39
12 Julie McConville USA 5:06.31

for perspective newbalance outdoor mile 2001 w frazier as soph did beat cain who was a frosh

w frazier is really distance 3k/5k type won the 5k at the meet in 2011
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Marlow » Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:21 pm

az2004 wrote:confrims cain is a top noth student, and couldgo anywhere she wanted
harvard, colombia, stanford

I spoke to that last school just now and they have accepted her, but
IT'S A LIMITED TIME OFFER AND OPERATORS ARE STANDING BY RIGHT NOW TO TAKE HER CALL!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:27 pm

i suspect cain has already accepted the salazar running option

his interview, he basically says, he'll get her in better shape

the key point is 3k/2 mile is too long, that she's a 1500/mile girl using ajee wilson as the model ajee is going to temple for kinesiology which is close to her home

felix at ucla is the same model..

cain, what interests her probably drives where she goes, probably closeto home too
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:34 pm

There are some Trojans that might dispute AF's college choice/alma mater (went where her brother went).
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:25 am

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250016 ... y-Cain-938

boston 2miler video available now

use te control bottom right to enter full screen

it should be noted after cain is inteviewed, dibaba is signing autographs, and the guy in the ble shirt with the hat didaba is signing is my contact

the autographs on that hat is a who's who intrack,
Last edited by az2004 on Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:17 am

az2004 wrote:http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250016-2013-New-Balance-Indoor-Grand-Prix/video/691182-NB-Grand-Prix-womens-2-mile-Mary-Cain-938

boston 2miler video available now

use te control bottom right to enter full screen


Was waiting for that!!
WOW!!
First, Tirinesh Dibaba is something ELSE!!
On her own for the last 11 laps, she runs NEGATIVE splits (4:39 and 4:34), with a 65 final 400 (440??)!
She is STRONG, in GREAT shape, and probably could get the indoor record (2 miles) with better competition.

As for Mary Cain, what more can one say?
PHENOMENAL!!
As the announcer said towards the end of the race, "she's 16, but she runs more like she's 26!!".
So true, so true!!
She's shattering HIGH SCHOOL records left and right, and is just an 11th grader, but she RUNS like she's a NATIONAL class runner!!
Maybe not ready to medal in the USATF, or make the team this year for the WC, but she'd definitely be able to make the US finals....in the 1500...or 5000!!

I hope she runs a 5K outdoors...maybe at Mt SAC or Stanford.
TOTALLY impressed with her run!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:45 am

http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250016 ... m-Rupp-733

heres the rupp 3k race with gebriwith

i dont see cain doin 5k in mt sac or stanford, but salazar could surprise me

i see her going down in distance, doing 800 training

there's an open mile at penn relays on saturday

thursday is distance night with college kids trying to get ncaa quals..

2013 1500 moscow trials in desmoines might well be her biggest 2013 look to meet

i do bet on the ny diamond leage and eugene diamond league

and i could see her do birmingham in england and london diamond league meets..

2014 world junior in eugene would be here primary target
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:51 am

Question to az2004:

Why do you say she might do the two British meets this summer??
Why those two, and not some others (Zurich, Bislett, Golden Gala, etc.)??

I DO hope she goes to Europe this summer!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:17 am

for me i prefer she do lower key euro races than the big ones you mentioned

john henwood is her coach in nyc, he would know whats planned...

coaching@johnhenwood.com PH 212 731 9149 that's direct from his website

for outdoors, the 2 usa based diamond league meets

end may is nyc 1500 avaialble

early june is prefontaine in eugene 800 3000 5000 available

june 30 birmingham 1500 available

july 26-27 london 800 3000 5000

desmoines trials mid june do 1500 trials

my question concerns 800 or 3000 in diamond leage meets

i'd try doing 800 for the speed work to sharpen her 1500

in listening to john henwood, seems 1500 is more the key now, but she may grow into a great 5k type

i'd see 2014 world junior in eugene and doing both 800 and 1500

JFK TO HEATROW/BIRMINGHAM are easy flights. as she lives in bronxville, affluent suburb of nyc

i have a friend who lives in bronxville and home is worth 1.5 million
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby KevinM » Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:40 am

az2004 wrote:coaching@johnhenwood.com PH 212 731 9149 that's direct from his website


Jesus. You two are weirding me out.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:05 pm

i was looking at info for henwood

got the info from his website...

seems he has a number of lower level athletes

seems salazar picked him as the hands on day to day guy with cain

27:45 10k 13:30 5k sub 4 mile

2004 10k olympian for new zealand

that's a very decent resume
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:40 pm

i asked john henwood about possible post millrose plans..

he responded..

Only Alberto can give out answers to those questions. But I know for sure that she won't be flying out of the country for Diamond league meets during school.




Thanks

John
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Dutra5 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:01 pm

KevinM wrote:
az2004 wrote:coaching@johnhenwood.com PH 212 731 9149 that's direct from his website


Jesus. You two are weirding me out.


I can see a phone call or two in John Henwood's future should the kid run a poor race somewhere along the line. :lol:
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby aaronk » Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:26 pm

I've followed T&F for over 50 years, and had read every word of T&FN, but up till he started coaching Cain, I'd never heard of Henwood!!

As to Mary running a 5K or 10K this spring outdoors, if not at Mt SAC or Stanford, she could do what Cayla Hatton did last year....hop into a college men's 10K in a small college meet somewhere!!
Her time of 33:17 is listed in Jack Shepard's HS Track this year as the 2nd fastest HS girls 10K ever.
If Shepard sees that mixed race, collegiate race as okay for record purposes, the same would go for Cain.
That way, she wouldn't have to travel very far....just go to the nearest college and convince the people there to let her into the race!!
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:48 am

2004 olympics, henwood did run the 10k

and 2:15 in new york city is good, think he was 13th

because he was a kiwi i didn't know of him

that;s why i searched his name once it became known to me

article on front page hasay says cain should run in college

cain is running well above that level, so using college seems a mistake to me

i think ajee wilson and cain are the model for the new elite model

hasay never had the base speed either of those 2 girls currently have

hasay at 5k or 10k might well be a nice runner

cain will do college, but i suspect she will not run in college
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby Dutra5 » Thu Feb 07, 2013 1:54 pm

I don't think we'll see Cain in a 5000m and certainly not a 10,000m race this year.
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile [2 HSRs for Cain]

Postby az2004 » Thu Feb 07, 2013 2:06 pm

i fully agree, 5k and 10k are way in her future

i see the 2014 eugene junior meet as her primary event

with the 1500 her main event

she did 2.03 800 last year, and if she doubles, i see it more in the 800 than the 3000

i think baxter and hasay can be real good 10k types
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Re: preview for boston 2 mile

Postby az2004 » Mon Feb 11, 2013 3:20 pm

26mi235 wrote:
az2004 wrote:here;s the 9:54 cuffe ran

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05yqWMYIdnQ

interesting cuffe anchor was a 73, while cain can go mid 60 range, cain has a huge edge with her kick as she can nail 8 seconds or so

im smelling a good chance to get the 2 mile mark


Cuffe ran very even pace in that race, which is the optimal strategy for minimizing time. If Cain runs even pace to her maximum effort, she is not going to suddenly go 8 seconds faster on her last lap. At that point she was running for time, not racing for place, where she would have a faster finish (but slower overall time). [Cuffee's last 440 yards was 73.41, about 73.0 for 400m]



missed this from 26m235 the girls from illinois, i dont know where she went to school, pushed the pace very early, helping cuffe get a hotpace

kayla beattie i see went to iowa but redshirted 2012, and i have not seen a 2013 result for her

i know waverly neer is at columbia

and wesley frazier will go to duke
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