Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?


Main message board: for the discussion of topical track & field items only.

Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Marlow » Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:42 pm

Looking at his stats in the Annual
6'4/216 (193/98)

9.88
9.88
9.93
9.93
9.96
9.97

OT - 3rd
OG - 5th
London DL - 2nd
Stockholm DL - 1st
Zurich DL - 3rd

and best of all - 23 years old

Gay (30) and Gatlin (30) won't be at their peak much longer . . .

Love to see him take a serious stab at the 200 also.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21128
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby ATK » Sat Jan 05, 2013 3:25 pm

Marlow wrote:Gay (30) and Gatlin (30) won't be at their peak much longer . . .

Love to see him take a serious stab at the 200 also.


Gay definitely, Gatlin maybe, considering he had 4 years off...

I remember when he first came out 2009-2010 most were saying he is probably a better 200 runner, but only performances will tell.
But I agree, he is the mostlikely contender for the next great US sprinter. But then you have guys like Mookie Saalam, and Harry Adams who showed flashes of serious potential, but unfortunately were take by injury this year.
ATK
 
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Tuariki » Sat Jan 05, 2013 8:59 pm

Brooks Johnson says: When all of the tangibles and intangibles are properly assessed and evaluated, Bailey is the heir apparent as the world’s fastest human. He has a coach that clearly knows the sprints ( John Smith ). In his training group, times that would be eye-popping elsewhere are commonplace within his group,….the same defining phenomenon that exists in Bolt’s group in Jamaica ). He is not intimidated by Bolt. And,……he has yet to reach his full potential.


Is Ryan Bailey the heir apparent? I don't think so. At least his record does not suggest he is. While he may not be intimidated by Bolt, I don't think Bolt, Blake or any of the other 3 Jamaicans with faster times than Bailey are losing any sleep over Brooks Johnson's anointment of Bailey as the heir apparent.

Comparison with Bolt and Blake at age 23

Olympics - individual events only
Bolt = 2 x gold
Blake = 2 x silver
Bailey = nothing

World Champs - individual events only
Bolt = 3 x gold, 1 x silver
Blake = 1 x gold
Bailey = nothing

World records - individual events only
Bolt = 3 x 100m, 2 x 200m
Blake = none
Bailey = none

Best times
Bolt= 9.58, 19.19
Blake = 9.69, 19.26
Bailey = 9.88, 20.10

All time ranking
Bolt: 100m = 1st, 200m = 1st
Blake: 100m = 2nd, 200m = 2nd
Bailey: 100m = 22nd,200m = 77th

Sorry, Brooks Johnson needs to wake up from his dream. While I may well eventually be proven wrong,so far Bailey has not done anything that justifies such a pronouncement.
Tuariki
 
Posts: 1300
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:39 pm
Location: Rohe o Te Whanau a Apanui

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby ATK » Sat Jan 05, 2013 9:26 pm

Doing a comparison is pretty ridiculous. You cant be in a position to equal the achievements of the "greatest ever" when you are competing against him.
The title of topic is appropiate, an a good comparison would be Baliey to someone like Tyson. Tyson was pretty much the greatest US sprinter since 2006 and is now on the decline while Baliey is on the rise...

But in the grand scheme of things, competing in the "Bolt era" is somewhat unfair to begin with.
ATK
 
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Tuariki » Sat Jan 05, 2013 9:44 pm

ATK wrote:Doing a comparison is pretty ridiculous. You cant be in a position to equal the achievements of the "greatest ever" when you are competing against him.
The title of topic is appropiate, an a good comparison would be Baliey to someone like Tyson. Tyson was pretty much the greatest US sprinter since 2006 and is now on the decline while Baliey is on the rise...

But in the grand scheme of things, competing in the "Bolt era" is somewhat unfair to begin with.

It is not me claiming that Bailey is their heir apparent as the "world's fastest human" which happens to be Bolt. Brooks Johnson is making this claim. And he is making it about Usain Bolt, and not Tyson Gay.

Brooks Johnson, not me, claims his assessment is based on the "When all of the tangibles and intangibles are properly assessed and evaluated".

My comparison is based on the only factual tangibles and intangibles.

Yohan Blake is younger than Bailey. Blake has achieved a hell of a lot more than Bailey. Ahell of a lot more in every category you want to come up with.

I think Brooks Johnson's fantasy is based more on his hope for an American to be top dog as his anointment is certainly not based on logic.

So please tell us what your logic is for supporting Brooks Johnson's attestation. And please also explain why is it unfair that Bailey has to compete in the Bolt era?
Tuariki
 
Posts: 1300
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:39 pm
Location: Rohe o Te Whanau a Apanui

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby ATK » Sat Jan 05, 2013 10:16 pm

Tuariki wrote:It is not me claiming that Bailey is their heir apparent as the "world's fastest human" which happens to be Bolt. Brooks Johnson is making this claim. And he is making it about Usain Bolt, and not Tyson Gay.

I know, but your assesment of why his stement is wrong, is unfair. I brought up the Tyson comparison because it makes more sense. (and the topic is about the next great US sprinter anyway...)

Brooks Johnson, not me, claims his assessment is based on the "When all of the tangibles and intangibles are properly assessed and evaluated".

My comparison is based on the only factual tangibles and intangibles.

I suspect he is speaking more on his physical attributes, and training situation (which he brought up) not medals/world records/PR's

Yohan Blake is younger than Bailey. Blake has achieved a hell of a lot more than Bailey. Ahell of a lot more in every category you want to come up with.

But hasn't achieved anything close to what Bolt has based off your categories. (and if you want to nit pick, Bolt didn't run the 2011 final)

So please tell us what your logic is for supporting Brooks Johnson's attestation.

I never supported Johnson's statement at all, I'm just refuting your assessment of it.

And please also explain why is it unfair that Bailey has to compete in the Bolt era?

Its like MJ in the 400 from 93-2000
Bolt of 08-12 has obviously been leaps and bounds ahead of everyone. Since 2008, the 3 times he lost, the sprint world pretty much stopped.
ATK
 
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Tuariki » Sat Jan 05, 2013 11:46 pm

I am more than happy to agree with you that Bailey may become the USA's best sprinter. There is logic to that conclusion; although Adrian Peterson apparently believes he will be.

However, the heading "Next Great USA Hope" implies becoming the world number 1 sprinter, Olympic Champion and World record holder; because IMO you can't be considered "great" without achieving those milestones.

And IMO, Bailey is unlikely to reach that level of achievement because he has to run faster than 9.58 (before anybody else does); and as yet, he has not performed to a level that justifies a belief he can do that. And he will have to win an Olympic title (individual).

Without taking into consideration the positive effects of "extraterrestrial" assistance, Gatlin can claim to be a great sprinter. However, without an individual Olympic gold, Gay, IMO, does not quite reach the level of being great.

Bolt is, as we all agree, a great sprinter. Blake might be come one. Time will tell, although the odds suggest he will go down in history as just another almost great sprinter. As for Bailey - well IMO he just hasn't yet shown anything that marks him down as someone who is going to be the world's next fastest human.

Adam Gemili has IMO much better credentials than Bailey for that possibility. And it is certainly way too early to make such predictions for him.

physical attributes?? What does that mean? Is there something in his body type that gives him an as yet unrealised advantage over Bolt, Blake and every other sprinter around?

You brought up the Tyson comparison because Bailey has no chance of taking out Bolt. Yet to be great, Bailey has to take out Bolt. He can't ever be great simply by replacing Tyson Gay (or Justin Gatlin) as America's best.

And training situation. Are you implying his previous coach was not competent? Or is his training environment was to blame for him not achieving this "potential greatness" to date?

Blake. I didn't claim that Blake had achieved anything like Bolt. The point of using Blake in my comparisons was to show that Blake has achieved SO MUCH MORE THAN BAILEY yet he is younger than Bailey. And IMO Blake is far away more likely that Bailey to be the next fastest human.

And as for nit picking - my comparisons were what was achieved by age 23. Bolt was aged 25 in 2011 and so I did not take into account anything he did in 2001. I only used performances that were achieved prior to his turning 24.

Refuting my statement. In my simplistic little world, if you are refuting my position then you must be supporting the alternative. I say Bailey won't be, therefore, you must believe he will be.

Do you seriously believe it is not fair to compare the performances of athletes with other greats such as Bolt and MJ just because those greats were so unbelievably great? So I presume that you will then not want to compare the achievements of Kirani James with MJ because MJ was just too great.
Tuariki
 
Posts: 1300
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:39 pm
Location: Rohe o Te Whanau a Apanui

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:45 am

The great thing about T&F (and practically any sport) is that the rise of a star is never a connect-the-dots logical progression. Sometimes a 'good' athlete suddenly becomes the Best simply because s/he arrives at the right place at the right time in terms of body and preparation and coaching. Blake is NO DOUBT the apparent heir-apparent to Bolt, but that does not mean Bailey could not zip right by him literally and figuratively. He has the body for it.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21128
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby mal » Sun Jan 06, 2013 8:31 am

Heir?

I think Bolt can still be the best when Bailey's career may be over. If he wants to be.
mal
 
Posts: 970
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:32 am

mal wrote:Heir?
I think Bolt can still be the best when Bailey's career may be over. If he wants to be.

Even though Bolt is 'only' 3 years older, his mind (desire) and body are much older. I do think he can 'hang on' through Rio 2016 (though I think Blake may eclipse him there), I don't see much after that. Bailey will be 27 there (Blake will only be 26!) and presumably also at his Oly peak (31 being problematic). Right now I see more upside for him than the other two (mostly because they're already there), but am not discounting the B-Guiz at all.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21128
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby bushop » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:00 am

Tuariki wrote:However, the heading Next Great USA Hope implies becoming the world #1 sprinter, Olympic champion and world record holder; because IMO you can't be considered "great" without achieving those milestones.... Bailey is unlikely to reach that level of achievement because he has to run faster than 9.58 (before anybody else does); and as yet, he has not performed to a level that justifies a belief he can do that. And he will have to win an Olympic title (individual).

It would seem as though coach Johnson is making a prediction of future performance... not an evaluation of current form.

Coach sees him reaching these milestones in the future. If Bailey had already reached said milestones the heading of this thread might be Ryan Bailey - Great USA Sprinter with no question mark.
bushop
 
Posts: 1868
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: near the toys and tape measures

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Tuariki » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:21 am

I agree with the posters that Bailey could become a great sprinter. As a prediction, I have nothings against brooks Johnson's opinion. All I am saying is that so far the results haven't been there when you compare Bailey with Blake and Bolt at the same age. But like Linford Christie he could be a late developer.
Tuariki
 
Posts: 1300
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:39 pm
Location: Rohe o Te Whanau a Apanui

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Trackrunner » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:33 am

The problem I have with the Brooks Johnson article is that nowhere in the story did he mention Yohan Blake and he is talking about Ryan Bailey not just as the next great USA sprint hope but as the heir apparent to Usain Bolt. Blake is almost a year younger than Bailey and has a PB that is almost .20 quicker than Bailey. Bailey will get better and run in the 9.7s but I don't think we will ever see a sub 9.7 from him. Too heavy for one and a lot of his height is in his upper body.
Trackrunner
 
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:57 pm

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:46 am

Trackrunner wrote:Bailey will get better and run in the 9.7s but I don't think we will ever see a sub 9.7 from him. Too heavy for one and a lot of his height is in his upper body.

I didn't think Gay had it in him either (he was a 9.84 sprinter till he was 25). There's been a major sea-change since CL and LB were sprinting and 9.70 is the new 9.90.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21128
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby eldanielfire » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:54 am

Did anybody hear about Baileys quite amazing story of what he had to do to get into athletics?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/olympi ... Games.html

In terms of potential, he has already proved he can out party the Jamaicans:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/ar ... ailey.html
eldanielfire
 
Posts: 1321
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 7:07 am

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Blues » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:56 am

Tuariki wrote:I agree with the posters that Bailey could become a great sprinter. As a prediction, I have nothings against brooks Johnson's opinion. All I am saying is that so far the results haven't been there when you compare Bailey with Blake and Bolt at the same age. But like Linford Christie he could be a late developer.


The problem I have with the age comparison reasoning is that I don't think that Ryan Bailey at age 23 has necessarily had an equivalent amount of the most elite coaching at the pro level as Blake and Bolt had by that age, or had coaches that necessarily use the same training philosophy and methods that Coach Mills uses to get the best out of his athletes. I think it might be a little too early to compare Bailey to Blake and Bolt at the same age. Ryan Bailey has overcome a lot of obstacles in his life to get where he is, and I think he still has a chance to improve, possibly more than some people might think. Bolt and Blake both had pretty big improvements in a matter of one season despite the fact that they were already elite at the time of those improvements, and I don't think that a similar type improvement is necessarily impossible for Bailey.. It'll be interesting watching his progression. And hopefully all the attention from the ladies won't be his downfall... :wink:
Blues
 
Posts: 1091
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2009 9:58 am

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 06, 2013 11:09 am

eldanielfire wrote:Did anybody hear about Baileys quite amazing story of what he had to do to get into athletics?

I read most of that at the OT, but made me look up his progression just now.

2007 (18)- 10.48 (Ore HS Champion)
2008 (19) - 10.28
2009 (20) - 10.05 (JC - NCAA inelig)
2010 (21) - 9.88 and 20.10!
2011 (22) - out
Marlow
 
Posts: 21128
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby ATK » Sun Jan 06, 2013 2:48 pm

Tuariki wrote:However, the heading "Next Great USA Hope" implies becoming the world number 1 sprinter, Olympic Champion and World record holder; because IMO you can't be considered "great" without achieving those milestones.

So by your definition, Bolt, M. Greene, D. Baliey, C. Lewis, J. Hines, and B. Heyes were the only great sprinters since auto timing...Thats it

Tuariki wrote:And IMO, Bailey is unlikely to reach that level of achievement because he has to run faster than 9.58 (before anybody else does); and as yet, he has not performed to a level that justifies a belief he can do that. And he will have to win an Olympic title (individual).
Tuariki wrote:I agree with the posters that Bailey could become a great sprinter.
Huh? :?


I think Baliey, H. Adams, Salaam, M. Mitchell etc are the next crop of US sprinters when Gatlin, Tyson, etc are finally done. Baliey is the one leading that pack of sprinters and has shown that he is capable of holding his own against the best. Injuries aside, its pretty clear that he will go down a great sprinter.
Now I don't think he will be Bolt esque though. Blake is probably the only person right now that can really make an argument to run as fast/break Bolts records. I wouldn't say winning gold is mandatory to be the "next great US sprint hope" But I think reaching a level like Walter Dix has (or better) would satisfy the idea of "next US sprint hope". That would be basically going out there when healthy winning medals, being one of the best in the world, and only loosing to the best competition.
ATK
 
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:58 pm

Comparing what he has done vis a vis Bolt is entirely irrelevant to the proffered title: Next Great USA Sprint Hope. Some people have really gone off the deep end. I think that they also fail to realize the whole nature of that term used in this sort of way; as in The Great White Hope (in boxing).
26mi235
 
Posts: 16335
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby Marlow » Sun Jan 06, 2013 5:50 pm

26mi235 wrote:I think that they also fail to realize the whole nature of that term used in this sort of way; as in The Great White Hope (in boxing).

I'm not sure what you're implying, but since since it's my thread title, I'm pretty sure that I meant: Will Bailey be the next great leader of the USA sprinters to challenge the world's best?

The mantle was passed from Lewis to Burrell (to Mitchell) to Greene (to Gatlin) to Gay.
Marlow
 
Posts: 21128
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Ryan Bailey - Next Great USA Sprint Hope?

Postby ATK » Sun Jan 06, 2013 6:24 pm

Marlow wrote:
26mi235 wrote:I think that they also fail to realize the whole nature of that term used in this sort of way; as in The Great White Hope (in boxing).

I'm not sure what you're implying, but since since it's my thread title, I'm pretty sure that I meant: Will Bailey be the next great leader of the USA sprinters to challenge the world's best?

The mantle was passed from Lewis to Burrell (to Mitchell) to Greene (to Gatlin) to Gay.

I would throw Dix at the end, considering how he basically took over in Gay's absence (2008, 2011)
ATK
 
Posts: 3808
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 24 guests