Where does Little Mary (Cain) go now?

[Blues]

It'll be interesting to see how she does at Nike NY Regionals on Saturday. Anybody know who her top competitors in that meet will be?

edit- Seems soph Bella Burda of Arlington is entered and has been running well... She won the NY Federation meet last weekend, and was second at the NY State Championships the weekend before.. She's currently ranked #24 on the National girl's list. It'll be interesting to see how she does relative to Mary's performance. As of now the weather forecast for the NY meet calls for colder temps, with a high around 44, low around 26, and a chance of rain, so the conditions may not be ideal.

[bushop]

... she has jumped from (I believe) 11th place in the Top 50 Girls Individual CC Rankings....all the way up to SECOND!!!
So what did she DO to deserve this upward movement in her ranking??

She was previously not ranked. (nr)

[Marlow]

http://web2.nyrrc.org/cgi-bin/htmlos.cgi/072825.1.374332022517383905

oh . . .

Fred Lebow Cross Country Championships

5 kilometers
Date/Time: November 18, 2012
Location: Van Cortlandt Park, Bronx

Cain Mary Bronxville NY 17:26

[aaronk]

... she has jumped from (I believe) 11th place in the Top 50 Girls Individual CC Rankings....all the way up to SECOND!!!
So what did she DO to deserve this upward movement in her ranking??

She was previously not ranked. (nr)

Please note that "nr" means she was not ranked at the BEGINNING of the SEASON!!
Look at last week's rankings, and you'll see she was ranked 11th.
She's been right around that ranking (10th, 11th, 12th) most of this season!!

As for the reason her ranking may have jumped up 9 places this week, it seems she WON the female division of the Fred Lebow 5K CC race held on November 18th!
Second woman was almost two minutes behind Mary!
Mary was only beaten by 5 men, all of them older than Mary!!

The ONLY woman in the High School ranks who COULD give Mary a "race" right now is Sarah Baxter!!
And I'd give most anything to see them go head-to-head in an indoor track 5K....or 3K/2 mile!!!
If they really RACED, it would be GOODBYE to whatever that distance's record was!!

[polevaultpower]

The ONLY woman in the High School ranks who COULD give Mary a "race" right now is Sarah Baxter!!

Uhh yeah... I think Amy-Eloise Neale could handle Mary Cain: http://www.athletic.net/CrossCountry/At ... ID=1439510

Neale hasn't been pushed in a race in awhile and we run hilly courses in WA. I like her odds of beating any high school girl head to head right now.

[Marlow]

If they really RACED, it would be GOODBYE to whatever that distance's record was!!

Quite the opposite: if they really RACED, it'd be a slow tactical affair. If they RAN, it'd be very fast!

[aaronk]

If they really RACED, it would be GOODBYE to whatever that distance's record was!!

Quite the opposite: if they really RACED, it'd be a slow tactical affair. If they RAN, it'd be very fast!

So sayeth Confucious!!



You're right!!

[bushop]

... she has jumped from (I believe) 11th place in the top-50 girls Individual CC rankings....all the way up to second. So, what did she do to deserve this upward movement in her ranking?

She was previously not ranked. (nr)

Please note that "nr" means she was not ranked at the beginning of the season.

RANKINGS, INDIVIDUALS, GIRLS (name, grade, school, location; preseason rank):

Good call... odd thing though... usually weekly rankings show the previous week's ranking.

[26mi235]

I believe that they said that she would not be ranked (highly?) until she ran. However, I may be confusing her case with Cheserek's. In his case, he did not race in the first part of the season in order to focus on taking the SATs to get a high enough score to be getting in to colleges and competing as a frosh.

[ExRun]

I think it's unreasonable to assume that just because Mary Cain is the top 16 yr old in the world at 1500M that she will likewise excel at longer distances. She looks to me to have the build of a miler as opposed to Sarah Baxter who I think has the ideal build and efficient running stride of a marathoner. Milers don't necessarily make good 5K runners.

In any case I am looking forward to Olympic medals from Mary C. in the 1500M and an Olympic medal from Sarah Baxter in the Marathon...they can do it!

[bushop]

I think it's unreasonable to assume that just because Mary Cain is the top 16 yr old in the world at 1500M that she will likewise excel at longer distances. She looks to me to have the build of a miler...

duck

[Marlow]

I think it's unreasonable to assume that just because Mary Cain is the top 16 yr old in the world at 1500M that she will likewise excel at longer distances. . . . Milers don't necessarily make good 5K runners.

It IS eminently reasonable to assume that a 4:11 HS girl 1500 runner [4:30 miler!! ] can beat EVERY HS girl XC runner!

[26mi235]

Well, a 3:53 (to be) miler could not beat all the XC guys.

[Marlow]

Well, a 3:53 (to be) miler could not beat all the XC guys.

Point! But Webb back then was running 4x4s too. Cain, despite an awesome 2:03 800, has more distance chops than Webb did. That said, I can see Amy-Eloise Neale beating Cain in XC.

[Master Po]

Fred Lebow Cross Country Championships
5 kilometers
Date/Time: November 18, 2012
Location: Van Cortlandt Park, Bronx

Cain Mary Bronxville NY 17:26

So, thinking about this performance, in relation to other prep female performances @ 5km in VC Park.

First, let me note all the disclaimers: I get the ways in which xc times are, in principle, meaningless. I get the ways in which comparisons of xc times are difficult, at best. Some would say impossible. But, I also get that a lot of what we do on these boards all the time is make comparisons across time, place, conditions, etc. in all sorts of events. Also -- as much as I enjoy observing Cain's career so far, am not interested in adding to hype about her. Plenty of that out there already. Finally, worth noting that this race, in comparison, e.g., with Footlocker NE regional championships, was relatively low-key, and Cain had no (female) competition.

However, with all these disclaimers noted, it may still be worth thinking about other female prep times on this course, in relation to her 17:26. I figured Kinney/Footlocker NE regional is a good place to look for other fast times. Do not have access to all of them, but here are a few notables, in the range of Cain's 17:26:

1983 17:08 Janet Smith
1984 16:46 Cathy Schiro
1986 17:34 Denise Bushallow
1991 17:32 Liz Moeller
1997 17:31 Erin Sullivan
2002 17:33 Ari Lambie
2007 17:37 Neely Spence
2008 17:31 Emily Jones; 17:37 Shelby Greany; 17:39 Aisling Cuffe

Probably some others in the 17:30s or perhaps faster, but these are the ones I've noted so far. In this historical context, her 17:26 seems noteworthy. All of this simply confirms what anyone following Cain already knows -- she's talented. But still worth noting.

[26mi235]

And as that list indicates, there are no runners that were dominant at the next level (college) or competitive at the levels above that (National open and International). Let it be noted that her 4:11 is competitive with athletes that were dominant at the next level and competitive at the next.

[Marlow]

And as that list indicates, there are no runners that were dominant at the next level (college) or competitive at the levels above that (National open and International).

I would argue that Cathy (Schiro) O'Brien was very successful at the 'next level', including her 1991 2:29 LA Marathon win.

[Blues]

... she has jumped from (I believe) 11th place in the top-50 girls Individual CC rankings....all the way up to second. So, what did she do to deserve this upward movement in her ranking?

She was previously not ranked. (nr)

Please note that "nr" means she was not ranked at the beginning of the season.

RANKINGS, INDIVIDUALS, GIRLS (name, grade, school, location; preseason rank):

Good call... odd thing though... usually weekly rankings show the previous week's ranking.

Mary's national rank last week probably depends on which rankings we look at.. These are the rankings from the last 2 weeks that I looked at, where Mary was ranked way down in honorable mention last week but #2 this week:

http://usa.milesplit.com/articles/96113 ... s-of-11-12

.

http://usa.milesplit.com/articles/96468 ... s-of-11-19

[Conor Dary]

And as that list indicates, there are no runners that were dominant at the next level (college) or competitive at the levels above that (National open and International).

I would argue that Cathy (Schiro) O'Brien was very successful at the 'next level', including her 1991 2:29 LA Marathon win.

And making the 1988 Olympic Team. O'B was a fairly big name back then.

[Marlow]

Those other names you listed...with the possible exception of Cayla Hatton...do NOT fit the parameters of my "obsessions".

I am willing to entertain an obsession with Hatton!
Her 10K last spring knocked my socks off (back-to-back 16:40s in one race!).
I see she was 3rd for SU at the NCAAs in 20:06, 28th place overall. That's a 'decent' (sic) start as a frosh, but I'm anxious to see what happens at 10K in the Stanford Distance Orgy in the spring, where everyone shows up and runs the best 10Ks of the season. I'm a little under-whelmed by former phenoms Cuffe and Kroeger's overall progress at The Farm, but this could be the one!

[ExCoastRanger]

Schiro-O'Brien qualified for three trials, made two Olympic teams and placed 10th at the Barcelona Games.

[Dutra5]

Schiro-O'Brien qualified for three trials, made two Olympic teams and placed 10th at the Barcelona Games.

She did all of this but what may be pertinent to the discussion, is that she did this after "failing" in a collegiate sense.

[Marlow]

Schiro-O'Brien qualified for three trials, made two Olympic teams and placed 10th at the Barcelona Games.

She did all of this but what may be pertinent to the discussion, is that she did this after "failing" in a collegiate sense.

no runners that were dominant at the next level (college) or competitive at the levels above that (National open and International).

[26mi235]

I almost but did not except Schiro from that list but did it the simple way in haste. Yes, Schiro was successful after college, not dominant during college.

[aaronk]

Those other names you listed...with the possible exception of Cayla Hatton...do NOT fit the parameters of my "obsessions".

I am willing to entertain an obsession with Hatton!
Her 10K last spring knocked my socks off (back-to-back 16:40s in one race!).
I see she was 3rd for SU at the NCAAs in 20:06, 28th place overall. That's a 'decent' (sic) start as a frosh, but I'm anxious to see what happens at 10K in the Stanford Distance Orgy in the spring, where everyone shows up and runs the best 10Ks of the season. I'm a little under-whelmed by former phenoms Cuffe and Kroeger's overall progress at The Farm, but this could be the one!

Have you seen the video of her 10K??
Don't have a link, but just google "Cayla Hatton 10K race" or something, and you'll come to it.
It's the entire race, and all during it, the "announcers", or the guys doing the taping, are wondering "Who IS this gal that's staying with these collegiate men??"
They keep saying they need to find out her name....and are STILL doing so at the end of the race.

She wasn't wearing her school uniform, so she just seemed to be some girl in the race.
She'd only run one 10K, and that was in 37-something....so lap-by-lap, these guys (and ME!!) became ever more amazed at her staying up with the guys!!

And it looked sooooooo easy!!
She just strided along, never looking stressed or tired.
And, like you said, she ran nearly even splits!!

And wound up the 2nd fastest HS 10K girl EVER!!!

[Bruce Kritzler]

I almost but did not except Schiro from that list but did it the simple way in haste. Yes, Schiro was successful after college, not dominant during college.

I don't think Schiro attended college.
Schiro would have to rank very high among successful hs athletes who achieved things on a national/international level.

[Master Po]

I posted the list of other prep female xc times on the Van Cortland Park 5k course simply because when I saw Cain's time, I thought it looked pretty good and I wanted to compare it with others. Turns out that it is pretty good, historically speaking, at least as far as I can tell -- only found 2 so far who were faster.

My Nostradamus powers are very limited, so no implied claims about how dominant Cain will be at any level beyond what we've already seen. Each of these athletes is pretty much a singular experiment. I hope she does great, but who knows?

All that aside, I do think Cathy Schiro O'Brien and Janet Smith are deserving of some note, at least to avoid inadvertently dismissing them as having done nothing much beyond their prep careers. Iirc, Schiro O'Brien ran 11 marathons in her career. Eight of them were of some national or international consequence (OG, USOT, major city events). She finished in the top 3 in 5 of those 8, and 9th, 10th in two others (including the 10th at Barcelona, as noted). That's a solid, consistent record in some major national and international competition. Her 51:47 win at the Crim 10 miler in 1989 was a world record ('til 1991). Also silver in the Goodwill Games 10k in 1990. Not a world beater, but a very solid record. I recall less about Janet Smith, but iirc, she was a 10-time All American at NC State in track & XC, and was on the 1987 World xc team that earned a team gold. She finished 23rd in that race. Again, not a world beater but a very solid performer. Both Schiro-O'Brien and Smith did well beyond their prep careers (especially if we consider all those who struggle to get beyond great prep accomplishments). (And Neely Spence has done pretty well, so far, beyond her prep career, too.)

[ExCoastRanger]

Lambie was a many-time All American at Stanford, helped win NCAA XC team titles, was Pac-10 XC champ three times, part of a NCAA team track championship and an AR 4x1500 squad. She went sub 15:20, ran with Salazar's Oregon Project for two years, suffered injuries, had a bout of self-described burn out, and retired in 2010. She was a good racer and probably could have had a decent pro career but for a twist or two of fate and her own desire to get on with life.

[Dutra5]

I almost but did not except Schiro from that list but did it the simple way in haste. Yes, Schiro was successful after college, not dominant during college.

I don't think Schiro attended college.
Schiro would have to rank very high among successful hs athletes who achieved things on a national/international level.

Didn't she attend Oregon right out of HS and then return to the East Coast after a semester?

[Blues]

I almost but did not except Schiro from that list but did it the simple way in haste. Yes, Schiro was successful after college, not dominant during college.

I don't think Schiro attended college.
Schiro would have to rank very high among successful hs athletes who achieved things on a national/international level.

Didn't she attend Oregon right out of HS and then return to the East Coast after a semester?

Schiro was Oregon's top cross country runner as a freshman, but did relatively poorly (for her) at NCAA's, finishing as the 5th Oregon runner and 88th overall. She then decided that college wasn't really for her and withdrew, supposedly so she could devote more of her time towards concentrating on running rather than having to split time with academics. Not sure if she had problems with academics at Oregon, or if it was more due to frustration from feeling that she didn't have enough time to train the way she wanted to...

[aaronk]

Mary won the NY Regional Championship race!!

She ran 17:42.6, with 2500 meter splits of 8:56 and 8:47.

Bella Burda, a soph, was 2nd in 17:55.2, her 2500 splits being 8:55 and 9:01.

With Burda ahead at the half, looks like Mary ran just to win!!

Added later:

For some perspective, here's some results from the 2010 and 2011 races.

2011: Jillian Fanning, a jr., won in 17:47.4.
Mary was 3rd in 18:19.4!!

2010: Fanning won this one too, in 18:00.0

This year, Fanning, a senior now, finished 11th in 18:50.8, more than a minute behind Cain!!

[Friar]

Fanning, a senior now, finished 11th in 18:50.8,

I think she's been inj/sick and packed with the FM front-five today.

Some odd things happened between the two Org's (NXN/FL) races. You have to wonder about how some were recruited to which particular race (I think I saw one sandbagger out there)?
Could Cain have run @VCP today if she wanted to or is that out of her hands now? A few really good kids apparently didn't race at all.
While it looks like the talent edge goes to NXN I guess it depends on how much FL values having Baxter in its race who would certainly be favored over "Little Mary."

looks like Mary ran just to win!!

Whether she has the chops to do that against a more talented (Neale, Frazier, Knight et. al) field is to be determined. But it would be nice if there was one race (not both).