so what's the men's POY now?


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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tandfman » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:08 am

ExCoastRanger wrote:Maybe it was a magical night in Brussels at Van Damme, another historic T&F stage. If it not before, Merritt made it one the instant he stopped the clock.

Apart from Merritt's performance, and the men's 400 if you were Belgian (which I'm not), I thought it was a good, but by no means magical or even exceptional, night of track.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby j-a-m » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:56 am

tandfman wrote:Apart from Merritt's performance, and the men's 400 if you were Belgian (which I'm not), I thought it was a good, but by no means magical or even exceptional, night of track.

I'd settle for one WR per DL meet ...
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby berkeley » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:53 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.

I don't see how competition would have made Rudisha's effort any easier. Even if young versions of Kipketer, Coe, Cruz and Juantorena had been in the race, the lactic acid would have affected him the same. Competition might have even made his effort easier by providing some draft advantage for a portion of the race.

It wouldn't have made the effort easier, but the point has been made that Rudisha's performance gains AOY points because he took more of a risk, with more to lose. My point was that in the circumstances, it wasn't as much of a risk as it would have been in most OG finals where rivals seriously threaten for the gold medal. Yes, in the event, Amos was close-ish, but pre-race, Rudisha probably expected to win off any pace. He could afford to go for it with minimal risk to the win. Therefore he shouldn't gain very many points vis-a-vis Merritt & Eaton on the basis of risk.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:52 am

berkeley wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.

I don't see how competition would have made Rudisha's effort any easier. Even if young versions of Kipketer, Coe, Cruz and Juantorena had been in the race, the lactic acid would have affected him the same. Competition might have even made his effort easier by providing some draft advantage for a portion of the race.

It wouldn't have made the effort easier, but the point has been made that Rudisha's performance gains AOY points because he took more of a risk, with more to lose. My point was that in the circumstances, it wasn't as much of a risk as it would have been in most OG finals where rivals seriously threaten for the gold medal. Yes, in the event, Amos was close-ish, but pre-race, Rudisha probably expected to win off any pace. He could afford to go for it with minimal risk to the win. Therefore he shouldn't gain very many points vis-a-vis Merritt & Eaton on the basis of risk.


So now he gets marked down because he's too good :?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby jamal00005 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:57 am

mump boy wrote:
gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


My thoughts exactly

Great minds and all that :wink:


I completely agree with this post
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tandfman » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:21 am

j-a-m wrote:
tandfman wrote:Apart from Merritt's performance, and the men's 400 if you were Belgian (which I'm not), I thought it was a good, but by no means magical or even exceptional, night of track.

I'd settle for one WR per DL meet ...

Oh, yes. So would I. And so, I am sure, would most of the DL meet directors.

I was just reacting to the previous post, which suggested that it was perhaps a magical night of track. I've been to some of those--outstanding events, one after another. Brussels wasn't one of them. But I was certainly delighted to have been there. WRs don't happen all that often these days.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:13 am

gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


I watched it again last night, and DR's here-I-go-who-wants-to-stay-with-me run from the start is still a sight to behold.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Norm Balke » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:43 pm

Exactly. Rudisha ran heats and set a WR with no rabbit, took it out! On the world's biggest stage. Eaton's WR, could sleep in his own bed at night. Merritt, I love the season he had but the WR was set at a lesser meet. USA 4x1? Incredible. Jam 4x1? Wow.

Yes, go back and watch it. You KNEW while watching, it was going to be a great time, because he didn't sit back at all. If only more ran like this! Required viewing for young 800 runners.

I think it was such a great track and field season, I'm still thinking about it!
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tgs3 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:13 pm

Norm Balke wrote:Exactly. Rudisha ran heats and set a WR with no rabbit, took it out!


While I agree it was an incredible performance, how much do people think those rounds affected him? Three days before the final he ran a 1:45.90 heat. Two days before the final he ran 1:44.35 for his semi-final. It seems to me that it wouldn't take much at all out of an athlete of Rudisha's caliber, but I certainly admit that I could be very wrong about this.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby onyourmarktf » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:52 am

It can be argued that 9 of Eaton's 10 events were affected by the weather - most especially the first-day events. And the only one that wasn't? The 1500m.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Madd Marine » Sat Sep 15, 2012 4:43 pm

Too much apples and oranges stuff going on. "Tables" that compare records are generally worthless.

Rudisha = Balls

Consciously, purposely, went for it in the Olympic final, where it's possible he could have had a bad day. But rather than try to cover himself, be tactical in case he had a bad day, he launched himself into history wire to wire.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tandfman » Sat Sep 15, 2012 6:05 pm

Yoj may be right. The statistician in me wants to argue for Merritt. But the balls factor does favor Rudisha. What he did, how he did it, where he did it all matter. With the euphoria of having been in Brussels now more than a week in the past, I'm having second thoughts.

Isn't it wonderful to have two such choices, with Eaton's great WR and Jamaica's 4x1 not in anuyones top two.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby ATK » Sat Sep 15, 2012 6:22 pm

tandfman wrote:Yoj may be right. The statistician in me wants to argue for Merritt. But the balls factor does favor Rudisha. What he did, how he did it, where he did it all matter. With the euphoria of having been in Brussels now more than a week in the past, I'm having second thoughts.

Isn't it wonderful to have two such choices, with Eaton's great WR and Jamaica's 4x1 not in anuyones top two.

At the beginning of the year, if there was a poll of which world record would be broken, the Mens 4x100 would probably top that list. It was very expected.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 8:39 pm

My top two (at the beginning of the year) were the m800 and the m4x100 (even with only one real chance to break it). The Decathlon was not that far down the list, at least after March. Of course, with the decathlon, there are really only a couple of chances a year.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby lionelp1 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 11:54 pm

jamal00005 wrote:
mump boy wrote:
gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


My thoughts exactly

Great minds and all that :wink:


I completely agree with this post
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby lionelp1 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 12:01 am

jamal00005 wrote:
mump boy wrote:
gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


My thoughts exactly

Great minds and all that :wink:


I completely agree with this post


If times were the only or main criteria there would be probably a better argument for Merrit's performance but clearly the occasion and self confidence of what as achieved that day by DR was incomparable.

Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:06 am

lionelp1 wrote:
jamal00005 wrote:
mump boy wrote:
gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


My thoughts exactly

Great minds and all that :wink:


I completely agree with this post


If times were the only or main criteria there would be probably a better argument for Merrit's performance but clearly the occasion and self confidence of what as achieved that day by DR was incomparable.

Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??


On the men's side Juantorena 76 was the last time
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby EPelle » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:14 am

I believe Kiprop also led wire-to-wire in 2008.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:23 am

EPelle wrote:I believe Kiprop also led wire-to-wire in 2008.


Asbel ?? :?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby EPelle » Sun Sep 16, 2012 1:50 am

Officially, yes. Unless he didn't hold the official lead from 0-400m.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:13 am

EPelle wrote:Officially, yes. Unless he didn't hold the official lead from 0-400m.


Not even officially, he leads to 800

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GfuqCDt ... re=related
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby EPelle » Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:45 am

The split markers indicate Kiprop led at 400m in 56,5 and 800m in 1.56,1. Belal Mansoor Ali led through 1200m in 2.53,9, with Kiprop in tow at 2.54,1. I misremembered seeing him in 'front' at 1200m. Kiprop regained the lead and pushed a 52,9 (25,9) to eventually be declared the victor. You're absolutely accurate.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby gh » Sun Sep 16, 2012 7:16 am

mump boy wrote:
lionelp1 wrote:....

Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??


On the men's side Juantorena 76 was the last time


Not so: Wohlhuter led at 200, Sri Ram Singh at 400.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby gibson » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:11 am

http://www.iaaf.org/mm/Document/Competi ... _23299.pdf

a 140.9 800m scores better than 12.80 110h in the tables.
as was said many times before, iaaf the tables are just another opinion, albeit a very good one in my book.

i think both records have a lot of room for improvement.
the 800 record should be at 139
and the 110h? - see the 2 step thread!
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sun Sep 16, 2012 9:39 am

gh wrote:
mump boy wrote:
lionelp1 wrote:....

Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??


On the men's side Juantorena 76 was the last time


Not so: Wohlhuter led at 200, Sri Ram Singh at 400.


I misread the original post had no idea if he lead the whole way !!
Last edited by mump boy on Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Dave » Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:14 am

mump boy wrote:
berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.


No it wasn't, he had nothing to lose going into the 1500 he was in a win, win. Even if he hadn't break the WR he was definitely going to win the events and qualify for OG.

....


Did Eaton even need to finish the event to make the team? That said, I think the weather is very significant for his performance. What was his best prior effort in crappy weather? Did anyone else PR that day?

From IAAF, it looks like he typically PRs in Eugene in May or June and has been averaging 300pts improvement year in year out.

A 4.5second PR in the 1500 seems like a pretty big deal to me after he had set several other PRs.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:33 pm

I think he was amazing in Eugene but because Rudisha was at OG it's better for me
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby lionelp1 » Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:08 am

mump boy wrote:
gh wrote:
mump boy wrote:
lionelp1 wrote:....

Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??


On the men's side Juantorena 76 was the last time


Not so: Wohlhuter led at 200, Sri Ram Singh at 400.


I misread the original post had no idea if he lead the whole way !!


Looking at the race Juantorena was first across the track after the break and Singh led Juantorena after a crazy little burst for about 11 seconds from 50.85 to 61 seconds. Not quite the same as DR
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Dave » Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:59 am

mump boy wrote:I think he was amazing in Eugene but because Rudisha was at OG it's better for me


This is a pretty amazing year to have these performances to argue about.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Gabriella » Fri Sep 21, 2012 2:52 am

Difficult one for me.

Rudisha's run was amazing, and I agree that the manner of his run makes it even more special, but, it was 'only' an improvement of 0.10 on the existing WR which was only 2 years old. Howver, he did break the 1:41 barrier, which has it's own special kudos.

Eaton's WR was just a 13 pt improvement on Sebrle's WR, which is not very big at all in decathlon terms, however, he beat a barrier-breaking WR that was set in perfect conditions and that has stood for 11 years. This must also count for something.

Merritt's margin of improvement is relatively the best of the three, beating the old WR by 0.07. But the WR was again 'only' 4 years old and one that could have gone sooner had we seen the right people in a race in the right conditions. I'm thinking specifically Liu and Robles.

I'd go with:
1. Rudish
2. Eaton
3. Merritt
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby pickle47 » Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:18 pm

I am having a hard time according Rudisha special consideration for leading the OG 800 start to finish. That's the way he runs the race every time! Has he ever sat back the first lap and then moved to the front at 600m? Not in the last few years. He was never going to do anything BUT lead wire to wire. Sorry, that's like giving Filbert Bayi kudos for going out in 53. It's his MO. The fact that it was the OG might have made his stomach churn a little bit more at the start, but who went to the line with more confidence this year than Rudisha? No one.

As for the 110H record being 'soft' because the right parties didn't get in the 'right' race...name another event where the principles race each other more consistently. You never hear about hurdlers ducking one another. On the contrary, much has been written about their relatively aberrant penchant for hammering each other week in, week out. There were plenty of fast races over the last few years (decades) and many, many opportunities to go deeper into the 12.8s. Look at how the men's 100m mark went down in the 1980s and 90s. A hundredth here, two hundedths there. It took a Bolt to move it down a tenth or more in one fell swoop. That's how the short sprint events progress, and the records are not therefore soft.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby lionelp1 » Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:48 pm

pickle47 wrote:I am having a hard time according Rudisha special consideration for leading the OG 800 start to finish. That's the way he runs the race every time! Has he ever sat back the first lap and then moved to the front at 600m? Not in the last few years. He was never going to do anything BUT lead wire to wire. Sorry, that's like giving Filbert Bayi kudos for going out in 53. It's his MO. The fact that it was the OG might have made his stomach churn a little bit more at the start, but who went to the line with more confidence this year than Rudisha? No one.

As for the 110H record being 'soft' because the right parties didn't get in the 'right' race...name another event where the principles race each other more consistently. You never hear about hurdlers ducking one another. On the contrary, much has been written about their relatively aberrant penchant for hammering each other week in, week out. There were plenty of fast races over the last few years (decades) and many, many opportunities to go deeper into the 12.8s. Look at how the men's 100m mark went down in the 1980s and 90s. A hundredth here, two hundedths there. It took a Bolt to move it down a tenth or more in one fell swoop. That's how the short sprint events progress, and the records are not therefore soft.


Sorry you are having a hard time, but really that is the most weird post, first paragraph, I have read even for this Forum. Fancy going to the line knowing you are better than the other guys :lol: ....like every great champion maybe. Like Bolt, like Bekele for years, like.... so many its not worth adding them all up.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sat Sep 22, 2012 5:20 am

Apparently we are supposed to mark athletes down for being better than everyone else !! :?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Dave » Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:21 am

Some are arguing that Rudisha had no rabbit. Wouldn't 3 guys under 1:43 constitute some help with pacing?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:24 am

Dave wrote:Some are arguing that Rudisha had no rabbit. Wouldn't 3 guys under 1:43 constitute some help with pacing?


Not if they are all behind him.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby berkeley » Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:24 am

lionelp1 wrote:Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??

I can't think of one. That's definitely a point in favor for POY. The closest I can think of was Cruz, who was always very close to the lead - but sitting on the leader's shoulder is clearly much easier than leading. Keino led for the last 850m of his Mexico 1500 ... but lagged near the back for the first lap.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby EPelle » Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:37 am

Though the question raised was about which middle distance men have raced gun-to-tape in modern Olympics, it's worth noting that Paula Ivan ran wire-to-wire in that brilliant w-1500m in Seoul. She ran a fast time (3.53,96 OR) and won gold.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Sep 22, 2012 10:37 am

berkeley wrote:
lionelp1 wrote:Has there been in the modern OG an athlete at middle distance who has won, leading from gun to tape.??

I can't think of one. That's definitely a point in favor for POY. The closest I can think of was Cruz, who was always very close to the lead - but sitting on the leader's shoulder is clearly much easier than leading. Keino led for the last 850m of his Mexico 1500 ... but lagged near the back for the first lap.


In that race, Keino had his own personal rabbit in Ben Jipcho.
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