so what's the men's POY now?


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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby lapsus » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:43 pm

I still think Rudisha's WR is POY. When was the last time a men's 800m+ WR was broken without a pacemaker, never mind in the world championships or the Olympics? And then there's the way he made it look, even though everyone else was running all-time fastest times for position. You might complain it is not very objective, but for me, only Rudisha and Bolt at their best can "shrink" their competitors like that.

When it comes to AOY, Merritt is definitely my choice.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:23 am

odelltrclan wrote:
mump boy wrote:For me it doesn't come better than WR in OG final, he could have waited for the cash at a GP but chose history instead :D


Huh? It's not like he didn't try it in DL meets as well.

I think Rudisha's strategy in the OG final is what he thought gave him the best shot to win. The WR was a bonus. He didn't think anyone could hang with him if he went all out and he was right. I am not buying the argument that he was risking it all to get the WR in the OG. He ran the way he thought he could win it.


I didn't say he didn't try it at DL, i said he could have waited for DL and grabbed the cash, just like Bubka or Isi. He put it all on the line when it mattered most and made history

There hasn't been another WR in a mens middle or distance race for 36 years, they happen in sprint races all the time and there is reason for that. It takes a lot more confidence and guts to do so than it does running a 100 where there is no pacing or tactics involved.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:30 am

Mighty Favog wrote:No one thought 1:40.91 could be done in the Olympics, but no one thought 12.80 could be run at any time period. It's a quantum leap forward in a way that I don't think we've seen since Radcliffe and the marathon. My guess is that Rudisha and Eaton will beat their own records next year but Merritt's run will not be bettered for a generation.


Of course they did :?

It's a .06 improvement that was bettered by Bolt in 08 and 09

Until last night 110h record has only seen an improvement of 0.07 in 30 years, (in the same period the 100m has improved .37 !!) it was due a big revision. There is no reason it can't be improved on again.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Ned Ryerson » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:31 am

mump boy wrote:I didn't say he didn't try it at DL, i said he could have waited for DL and grabbed the cash, just like Bubka or Isi. He put it all on the line when it mattered most and made history


He got plenty well paid for what he ran in London. How do you know his contract didn't have a huge financial incentive for breaking the world record at the Olympics?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Ned Ryerson » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:34 am

mump boy wrote:There is no reason it can't be improved on again.


Maybe. Maybe not. Unless someone thinks that men could be running sub10 in the 110m Hurdles and faster, there is an absolute limit as to what the human species can do in this event. Is it 12.80 or 12.75 or quicker? Time will tell. But we'll want to see someone get within a click or two of it before guessing when it will be revised again.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Sep 09, 2012 9:59 am

croflash wrote:The "wow" factor was bigger when Rudisha ran 1:40.91. I was excited when Merritt broke the world record, but most definitely not shocked about the time. The record was due. A lot of people have run sub 13 without executing a great race, most notably David Oliver when he was at the top of his game. He just never put it all together in one race. I don't think 12.80 is the end of line for Merritt or others who will follow.


Least shocked by 1:40.91 than any other record this year. As for the Wow during the race, the 110h is over before you know it and then it was stunning. The Dec is the other way around, it plays out over 30+ hours. None of the other WRs happen if they have the weather that several of Eaton's events had. What if he had scored 9150, which might have been feasible if the weather was good, as he lost up to a second in the 400, maybe two heights in the HJ, and cannot remember enough particulars in other events.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby ATK » Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:43 pm

26mi235 wrote:None of the other WRs happen if they have the weather that several of Eaton's events had.

That's 100% assumption.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Tuariki » Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:21 pm

You really do talk a load of rubbish at times.
26mi235 wrote:None of the other WRs happen if they have the weather that several of Eaton's events had.

Are you saying that no WR has happened in the rain before?

26mi235 wrote:What if he had scored 9150, which might have been feasible if the weather was good, as he lost up to a second in the 400, maybe two heights in the HJ, and cannot remember enough particulars in other events.

The point is he didn't score 9150. Neither you nor anyone else has any idea how much he lost, if anything, in the 400m or HJ because of the weather.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Ned Ryerson » Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:33 pm

26mi235 wrote:Least shocked by 1:40.91 than any other record this year. As for the Wow during the race, the 110h is over before you know it and then it was stunning. The Dec is the other way around, it plays out over 30+ hours. None of the other WRs happen if they have the weather that several of Eaton's events had. What if he had scored 9150, which might have been feasible if the weather was good, as he lost up to a second in the 400, maybe two heights in the HJ, and cannot remember enough particulars in other events.


I was least shocked by Eaton. Everyone knows how good he is and how much better he can be.

The same is true of Rudisha, but it had been 36 years since a man broke the 800m world record at the Olympic Games, and I think the first time since Fiasconaro that a man led from gun to tape in a world record run.

If it means anything, Merritt had the largest world record, relative to the previous one.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby gh » Sun Sep 09, 2012 3:10 pm

Ned Ryerson wrote:...I think the first time since Fiasconaro that a man led from gun to tape in a world record run....


Juanto in the '77 WUG.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:57 am

I don't know if it's been posted already but the IAAF scoring tables give the edge to Rudisha (1296) over Merritt (1291) and Eaton (1270).
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Pego » Mon Sep 10, 2012 10:47 am

What is the philosophy behind IAAF scoring tables? I could picture statistical analysis among established marks, but have no idea about going beyond WRs.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby pickle47 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:45 am

For my money, taking a record that has been improved a hundredth or two at a time since 1979 and knocking .07 from it is a lot tougher than whacking .10 from a race 8 times longer.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby EPelle » Mon Sep 10, 2012 11:56 am

pickle47 wrote:For my money, taking a record that has been improved a hundredth or two at a time since 1979 and knocking .07 from it is a lot tougher than whacking .10 from a race 8 times longer.

It would be truly phenomenal for Rudisha to run 1.40,91 for 880 metres.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Sep 10, 2012 12:40 pm

pickle47 wrote:For my money, taking a record that has been improved a hundredth or two at a time since 1979 and knocking .07 from it is a lot tougher than whacking .10 from a race 8 times longer.

But is it fair to compare Rudisha to himself? Shouldn't we be comparing him to Kipketer?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby pickle47 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 1:45 pm

Kipketer was only a tenth slower, and that was '97, right? 15 years?

And yes, I did take a little liberty with "8 times longer". So make it 7 and change.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:19 pm

ATK wrote:
26mi235 wrote:None of the other WRs happen if they have the weather that several of Eaton's events had.

That's 100% assumption.


Well, it is not much of a stretch. Let us just say that the odds of getting those WRs would have been tougher; if you really don't think so, well, please tell me the last time the 4x100 was set during hard cold rain, and similarly for the 110h and the 800. About the only superior performance I can think of (I am sure that there are more) is Paula's solo 10,000 in low-30s.

By the way, I am impressed with all four of the WRs [not quite as much for the fifth, not that any WR is easy these days] and I think that it is interesting that each of them is somewhat uniquely impressive. That is, the nature of how they are impressive is different one from the others.

800 -- WOW in the OGs and from the front

Deca -- sustained brilliance under difficult conditions at times and ahead of where we thought he was by a year or two

4x100 -- such a huge margin for a record that had stood for so long and with such a big margin over a quality Jamaican squad.

110h -- We though he might be knocking on the door, be I did not think that he was knocking on the one several places down the line.

By comparison, the splendid Mens 4 x 100 was the most expected record and without it they would not even have won the race.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby gh » Mon Sep 10, 2012 3:24 pm

i have no problem seeing Rudisha run his 800 in Eugene-comparable weather.

Nor do I think that, being a native, that Eaton was hampered all that much in his decathlon.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tandfman » Mon Sep 10, 2012 6:28 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
pickle47 wrote:For my money, taking a record that has been improved a hundredth or two at a time since 1979 and knocking .07 from it is a lot tougher than whacking .10 from a race 8 times longer.

But is it fair to compare Rudisha to himself? Shouldn't we be comparing him to Kipketer?

I'm thinking of comparing him to Coe and Merritt to Nehemiah. In 1981, more than 30 years ago, both Coe and Nehemiah set records that stood for a number of years. If you crunch the numbers, you'll find that Merrit's mark is better, when compared to Nehemiah's, than Rudisha's mark is when compared to Coe's.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Dave » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:23 pm

When was the last time there were so many amazing performances? Three men with WRs to go with their Olympic Gold medals. And no one is talking about the athletes who won double golds.

This was a tremendous year.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby berkeley » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:48 pm

mump boy wrote:
Mighty Favog wrote:No one thought 1:40.91 could be done in the Olympics, but no one thought 12.80 could be run at any time period. It's a quantum leap forward in a way that I don't think we've seen since Radcliffe and the marathon. My guess is that Rudisha and Eaton will beat their own records next year but Merritt's run will not be bettered for a generation.


Of course they did :?

It's a .06 improvement that was bettered by Bolt in 08 and 09

Until last night 110h record has only seen an improvement of 0.07 in 30 years, (in the same period the 100m has improved .37 !!) it was due a big revision. There is no reason it can't be improved on again.

I fully agree. Nehemiah's improvement of the record was far more radical, yet his last one was beaten in just 8 years. Then we had a 20 year period of little improvement in which the rest of the world caught up, and now recently we've had 3 guys (aside from Merritt) who all threatened the record multiple times and/or broke it by small margins. Merritt's record is awesome, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's surpassed within 10 years.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby gh » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:51 pm

As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby berkeley » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:14 pm

Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:21 pm

OK, when was the last comparable choice among a number of very fine performances?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby ExCoastRanger » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:34 pm

Are Performance of the Year and Mark of the Year synonymous here?
Haven't seen Merritt's race, but both Rudisha's and Eaton's WRs had the elements of high drama and suspense found in other kinds of artful performances.
Rudisha was on the grandest stage, in front of the biggest audience. He took a huge risk, going out so fast, running so hard. He raised all the actors in the race to their highest levels. You could see it, even if you didn't know how fast they were running. Mesmerizing to watch.

Eaton's stage was smaller, but the venue intimate and compelling. Stakes were high. His effort was brilliant, aesthetic: Handsome, charismatic young athlete ascending the top of his game, embraced by track-smart fans, fighting elements -- the rain really made it beautiful, as T&FN's cover shows -- at historic Hayward Field, delivering top marks time after time.

Maybe it was a magical night in Brussels at Van Damme, another historic T&F stage. If it not before, Merritt made it one the instant he stopped the clock. Somebody can tell me. It would have to be special to trump the Olympics.
If I had to pick one, I'd pick Rudisha just for unversal grandeur of it all. After that I couldn't say.
Last edited by ExCoastRanger on Tue Sep 11, 2012 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tm71 » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:44 pm

12.80 !!!
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Sep 10, 2012 8:49 pm

berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.

I don't see how competition would have made Rudisha's effort any easier. Even if young versions of Kipketer, Coe, Cruz and Juantorena had been in the race, the lactic acid would have affected him the same. Competition might have even made his effort easier by providing some draft advantage for a portion of the race.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:48 am

gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


My thoughts exactly

Great minds and all that :wink:
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Tue Sep 11, 2012 12:51 am

berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.


No it wasn't, he had nothing to lose going into the 1500 he was in a win, win. Even if he hadn't break the WR he was definitely going to win the events and qualify for OG.

DR was in OG final, if he'd blown up it wasn't just a record he could have lost

If AE had done the same performance at the OG with the possibility of Hardee overtaking him then we would have a comparison.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Ned Ryerson » Tue Sep 11, 2012 5:06 am

gh wrote:
Ned Ryerson wrote:...I think the first time since Fiasconaro that a man led from gun to tape in a world record run....


Juanto in the '77 WUG.


You're right and Juantorena, though I suppose, given the language of my statement, Kipketer in Paris 1997 would have been the last before Rudisha.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tandfman » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:08 am

ExCoastRanger wrote:Maybe it was a magical night in Brussels at Van Damme, another historic T&F stage. If it not before, Merritt made it one the instant he stopped the clock.

Apart from Merritt's performance, and the men's 400 if you were Belgian (which I'm not), I thought it was a good, but by no means magical or even exceptional, night of track.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby j-a-m » Tue Sep 11, 2012 6:56 am

tandfman wrote:Apart from Merritt's performance, and the men's 400 if you were Belgian (which I'm not), I thought it was a good, but by no means magical or even exceptional, night of track.

I'd settle for one WR per DL meet ...
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby berkeley » Tue Sep 11, 2012 7:53 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.

I don't see how competition would have made Rudisha's effort any easier. Even if young versions of Kipketer, Coe, Cruz and Juantorena had been in the race, the lactic acid would have affected him the same. Competition might have even made his effort easier by providing some draft advantage for a portion of the race.

It wouldn't have made the effort easier, but the point has been made that Rudisha's performance gains AOY points because he took more of a risk, with more to lose. My point was that in the circumstances, it wasn't as much of a risk as it would have been in most OG finals where rivals seriously threaten for the gold medal. Yes, in the event, Amos was close-ish, but pre-race, Rudisha probably expected to win off any pace. He could afford to go for it with minimal risk to the win. Therefore he shouldn't gain very many points vis-a-vis Merritt & Eaton on the basis of risk.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby mump boy » Wed Sep 12, 2012 12:52 am

berkeley wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
berkeley wrote:Most posts are assuming Eaton is clearly 3rd. I'm not so sure. I'm completely on the fence.

I think Rudisha's performance was devalued slightly by the lack of competition (I mean in his mind - I'm sure he had no idea that Amos could run 1:41.73, while he was probably fairly confident that he could run whatever it took to win comfortably off any pace). So, the argument that he risked a lot more than the others doesn't hold much water for me.

Eaton's effort was hugely hampered by the conditions - how many jumps or throws WRs or near-WRs have been set in heavy rain ? If you value courage, his 1500 was every bit as gutsy as Rudisha's 800.

I don't see how competition would have made Rudisha's effort any easier. Even if young versions of Kipketer, Coe, Cruz and Juantorena had been in the race, the lactic acid would have affected him the same. Competition might have even made his effort easier by providing some draft advantage for a portion of the race.

It wouldn't have made the effort easier, but the point has been made that Rudisha's performance gains AOY points because he took more of a risk, with more to lose. My point was that in the circumstances, it wasn't as much of a risk as it would have been in most OG finals where rivals seriously threaten for the gold medal. Yes, in the event, Amos was close-ish, but pre-race, Rudisha probably expected to win off any pace. He could afford to go for it with minimal risk to the win. Therefore he shouldn't gain very many points vis-a-vis Merritt & Eaton on the basis of risk.


So now he gets marked down because he's too good :?
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby jamal00005 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:57 am

mump boy wrote:
gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


My thoughts exactly

Great minds and all that :wink:


I completely agree with this post
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tandfman » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:21 am

j-a-m wrote:
tandfman wrote:Apart from Merritt's performance, and the men's 400 if you were Belgian (which I'm not), I thought it was a good, but by no means magical or even exceptional, night of track.

I'd settle for one WR per DL meet ...

Oh, yes. So would I. And so, I am sure, would most of the DL meet directors.

I was just reacting to the previous post, which suggested that it was perhaps a magical night of track. I've been to some of those--outstanding events, one after another. Brussels wasn't one of them. But I was certainly delighted to have been there. WRs don't happen all that often these days.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Conor Dary » Wed Sep 12, 2012 8:13 am

gh wrote:As boggling as the Merritt mark is, I continue to lean towards Rudisha for the simple reason that you can—relatively speaking—set the 110H record in any kind of meet. It's all about you. An 800, with pacing and tactics, just doesn't happen in an Olympic setting in the pro era. And doing it wire-to-wire? My winner.


I watched it again last night, and DR's here-I-go-who-wants-to-stay-with-me run from the start is still a sight to behold.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby Norm Balke » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:43 pm

Exactly. Rudisha ran heats and set a WR with no rabbit, took it out! On the world's biggest stage. Eaton's WR, could sleep in his own bed at night. Merritt, I love the season he had but the WR was set at a lesser meet. USA 4x1? Incredible. Jam 4x1? Wow.

Yes, go back and watch it. You KNEW while watching, it was going to be a great time, because he didn't sit back at all. If only more ran like this! Required viewing for young 800 runners.

I think it was such a great track and field season, I'm still thinking about it!
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby tgs3 » Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:13 pm

Norm Balke wrote:Exactly. Rudisha ran heats and set a WR with no rabbit, took it out!


While I agree it was an incredible performance, how much do people think those rounds affected him? Three days before the final he ran a 1:45.90 heat. Two days before the final he ran 1:44.35 for his semi-final. It seems to me that it wouldn't take much at all out of an athlete of Rudisha's caliber, but I certainly admit that I could be very wrong about this.
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Re: so what's the men's POY now?

Postby onyourmarktf » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:52 am

It can be argued that 9 of Eaton's 10 events were affected by the weather - most especially the first-day events. And the only one that wasn't? The 1500m.
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