Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]

[MightyBurner]

And Bolt and Blake have raced each other three times. In championship finals.

This is true but Mo has basically raced no one no one apart from Eugene. 2 meaningless, contrived races in UK and the European champs !!

Bolt and Blake may not have raced each other much but they have raced lots against everyone else and at a VERY high level

Huh? He beat Rupp on multiple occasions.. As far as I remember, Rupp was second to him in the 10k.

[mump boy]

Once you talk about top 5, I believe Lavillenie should be included in the conversation. I've got him at #5, behind Bolt, and just ahead of Harting and Farah.

There is NO WAY Lavillenie is ahead of Harting but i'd be happy to see loads of other people ahead of Mo though.

[mal]

The fork goes into this argument

[Half Miler]

There is NO WAY Lavillenie is ahead of Harting but i'd be happy to see loads of people others ahead of Mo though.

Agreed. Historically, distance doublers get a bit too much credit and throwers not nearly enough.

[Flumpy]

#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also

It's a toss up for #5 for me between Mo and Usain for 5th. Mo hardly competed but Usain ducked his biggest competitor unless he had no choice.

I'm also vaguely wavering on Merritt. His 2 DQ's technically count as loses so that's 4 he had during the year. Does that outweigh his other other accomplishments when he has such strong opposition?

[Flumpy]

#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also

HAven't you forgotten someone ??

Where's Bolt ? and i wouldn't mind Blake before Farah as well

Blake??? Who couldn't even win an individual Gold Medal? against someone who won 2???

[Flumpy]

Once you talk about top 5, I believe Lavillenie should be included in the conversation. I've got him at #5, behind Bolt, and just ahead of Harting and Farah.

Lavillenie is in my mix for 5th along with Farah and Bolt but Harting has to be ahead of all the others.

[gh]

The question is: how do you rank a false start? On paper, it's last place but really it's not. Thoughts??

How could it be anything but last place? 7 guys crossed the line ahead of you, and it's your fault you weren't there, not theirs.

[mump boy]

And Bolt and Blake have raced each other three times. In championship finals.

This is true but Mo has basically raced no one no one apart from Eugene. 2 meaningless, contrived races in UK and the European champs !!

Bolt and Blake may not have raced each other much but they have raced lots against everyone else and at a VERY high level

Huh? He beat Rupp on multiple occasions.. As far as I remember, Rupp was second to him in the 10k.

Outside of london

[mump boy]

#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also

It's a toss up for #5 for me between Mo and Usain for 5th. Mo hardly competed but Usain ducked his biggest competitor unless he had no choice.

Are you drunk ? he may have ducked Blake (and visa versa) but who was Mo racing against at the Euro Champs, the heats of the UK champs, a contrived 2 mile race won in 8.23 or was that 5k against Collis Birmingham the high quality competition you're looking for ??

Usain's Season

100m 05.05 Kingston Jamaica International Invitational 1. 9.82
100m 25.05 Ostrava Golden Spike 1. 10.04
100m 31.05 Roma Golden Gala 1. 9.76
100m 07.06 Oslo ExxonMobil Bislett Games 1. 9.79
100m 29.06 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 9.86
200m 01.07 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 19.83
100m 05.08 London Olympic Games 1. 9.63
200m 09.08 London Olympic Games 1. 19.32
4x100m 11.08 London Olympic Games 1. 36.84
200m 23.08 Lausanne Athletissima 1. 19.58
200m 30.08 Zürich Weltklasse 1. 19.66
100m 07.09 Bruxelles Memorial Van Damme 1. 9.86

These massively superior marks certainly make up for the couple of losses

[mump boy]

#1 - Merrit
#2 - Rudisha
#3 - Eaton
#4 - Harting
#5 - Farah

Yep. That's 1 to 5 IMO also

HAven't you forgotten someone ??

Where's Bolt ? and i wouldn't mind Blake before Farah as well

Blake??? Who couldn't even win an individual Gold Medal? against someone who won 2???

Against the highest quality competition with a series of times right up there on the all time list. I think his series of races is far superior to Mo, even if he came 2nd

[user4]

Eaton or Merritt!.. The 110H is like a mini 12 second Deca anyways.

[Flumpy]

Are you drunk ? he may have ducked Blake (and visa versa) but who was Mo racing against at the Euro Champs, the heats of the UK champs, a contrived 2 mile race won in 8.23 or was that 5k against Collis Birmingham the high quality competition you're looking for ??

Usain's Season

100m 05.05 Kingston Jamaica International Invitational 1. 9.82
100m 25.05 Ostrava Golden Spike 1. 10.04
100m 31.05 Roma Golden Gala 1. 9.76
100m 07.06 Oslo ExxonMobil Bislett Games 1. 9.79
100m 29.06 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 9.86
200m 01.07 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 19.83
100m 05.08 London Olympic Games 1. 9.63
200m 09.08 London Olympic Games 1. 19.32
4x100m 11.08 London Olympic Games 1. 36.84
200m 23.08 Lausanne Athletissima 1. 19.58
200m 30.08 Zürich Weltklasse 1. 19.66
100m 07.09 Bruxelles Memorial Van Damme 1. 9.86

These massively superior marks certainly make up for the couple of losses

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efl5pFTF ... page#t=23s

[mump boy]

Are you drunk ? he may have ducked Blake (and visa versa) but who was Mo racing against at the Euro Champs, the heats of the UK champs, a contrived 2 mile race won in 8.23 or was that 5k against Collis Birmingham the high quality competition you're looking for ??

Usain's Season

100m 05.05 Kingston Jamaica International Invitational 1. 9.82
100m 25.05 Ostrava Golden Spike 1. 10.04
100m 31.05 Roma Golden Gala 1. 9.76
100m 07.06 Oslo ExxonMobil Bislett Games 1. 9.79
100m 29.06 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 9.86
200m 01.07 Kingston Jamaican Ch. 2. 19.83
100m 05.08 London Olympic Games 1. 9.63
200m 09.08 London Olympic Games 1. 19.32
4x100m 11.08 London Olympic Games 1. 36.84
200m 23.08 Lausanne Athletissima 1. 19.58
200m 30.08 Zürich Weltklasse 1. 19.66
100m 07.09 Bruxelles Memorial Van Damme 1. 9.86

These massively superior marks certainly make up for the couple of losses

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efl5pFTF ... page#t=23s

Are you just showing me that for the lobes ?

[DecFan]

Updating an earlier post, adding stats for Merritt's WR and current season:

WR superiority to 2nd best performer ever:
Rudisha: 0.20%
Eaton: 0.14%
Merritt: 0.55%

WR superiority to average of next 5 best performers ever:
Rudisha 0.80%
Eaton 1.36%
Merritt 0.70%

WR superiority to average of next 10 best performers ever:
Rudisha 1.15%
Eaton 2.02%
Merritt 0.87%

WR superiority to average of next 5 best PERFORMANCES ever:
Rudisha 0.59%
Eaton 1.07%
Merritt 0.66%
(Note: Performances by someone other than Rudisha/Eaton/Merritt)

WR superiority to average of next 10 best Performances ever:
Rudisha 0.86%
Eaton 1.60%
Merritt 0.76%

# of next 10 best performers beaten this year:
Rudisha: 5 (#4 Amos, #6 Kaki, #9 Borzakovsky, #10 Kitum, #11 Aman)
Eaton: 3 (#2 Sebrle, #7 Clay, #10 Hardee)
Merritt: 4 (#2 Robles, #3 Liu, #4 Oliver, #11 Trammell)

# of top 10 performances all time Rudisha/Eaton/Merritt have in 2012, excluding their previous years' results
Rudisha 3 (#1, #4, #8)
Eaton 2 (#1, #8)
Merritt 1 (#1)

[26mi235]

Several comments.

The frequency domain for the events implies that 'top 10' marks in the Decathlon are more like the 'top 25 (or even 50)', especially in the hurdles.

The hurdles are a hard event to go undefeated in because: 1) top hurdlers face each other with great frequency; 2) lots of top races are run during the season; 3) the technical constraints of getting your feet in etc at tight and the consequences sever. and, of course, 4) xxxx happens.

Finally, due to the constraints on the hurdles an increment of performance is sort of a 'quadratic' cost, so now an improvement of 0.07 requires not only going faster but doing so without having more space to do so.

[Ned Ryerson]

# of top 10 performances all time Rudisha/Eaton/Merritt have in 2012, excluding their previous years' results
Rudisha 3 (#1, #4, #8)
Eaton 2 (#1, #8)
Merritt 1 (#1)

Pretty astounding that anything slower than 12.91 (the world record just over six years ago) won't get into the top 10 all-time performance list.

[bobguild76]

Shades of 1995, when Kiptanui ran his epic sub-8:00 Steeple at Weltklasse, plus another sub-8, plus a short lived 5k WR ... and finished FIFTH in the AOY. Edwards blew past 59', 18m, and 60' in the TJ on multiple occasions ... and finished SECOND. Of course, that year Geb had a season for the ages.

Same this year. Merritt's 12.80 puts a sharp tip on the finest hurdling season since Hot-Rod Milburn took AOY in 1971. (Slightly better than Skeets in 1981.) According to the Jan 1972 AOY edition of T&FN (page 4), Milburn's AAU semi-final in 1971 was auto-timed in 12.94. gh, could you correct me if that has changed? Thx.

In my opinion, the 12.80 easily pushes Merritt to at least 3rd place. Four losses (2 of them DQ) tarnishes his record in comparison to Rudisha. They both met their stiffest competition regularly, though Merritt did so more often.

In a way, the Merritt/Rudisha choice is similar to to College football BCS ratings. If you are going to lose, do it early, not at the end of the season. Our last sight of Rudisha is his 2nd place at Zurich. Our last sight of Merritt is 12.80. But last impressions sometimes skew our memories of the entire season. The wild card is how to assess Eaton's amazing season.

My thoughts are; 1. Rudisha, 2. Eaton, 3. Merritt

Bolt's continued high end marks are partially offset by his reluctance to meet Blake, but the 2 OG golds speak loudly. He gets 4th. Then Harting, Farah, Blake, and Lavillenie.

[bobguild76]

An additional thought regarding AOY ... Barring his disappointing Bronze medal at the Olympics, Reese Hoffa has been quite dominating in the SP. Yes, the bronze is a fair sized blemish (compared to other AOY contenders) on his 2012 record, but he has met the top competition even more than the 110 hurdlers, and has been stellar otherwise.

Honors won - B at OG, DL winner in SP w/ double the points of the runner-up, Majewski,
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else,
Sequence of marks - consistent 21 meter throws. Cantwell has the yearly lead, but Hoffa has the high end consistency.

Easily the top SP, and # 9 or 10 in AOY.

[mump boy]

An additional thought regarding AOY ... Barring his disappointing Bronze medal at the Olympics, Reese Hoffa has been quite dominating in the SP. Yes, the bronze is a fair sized blemish (compared to other AOY contenders) on his 2012 record, but he has met the top competition even more than the 110 hurdlers, and has been stellar otherwise.

Honors won - B at OG, DL winner in SP w/ double the points of the runner-up, Majewski,
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else,
Sequence of marks - consistent 21 meter throws. Cantwell has the yearly lead, but Hoffa has the high end consistency.

Easily the top SP, and # 9 or 10 in AOY.

I don't see how someone with OG bronze and other loses gets ranked unless he's done something else outstanding performance wise

Rudisha
Merrit
Eaton
Bolt
Harting
Farah
Lavellenie
Blake
James
Ukhov
A Walker (i have no idea)


must all come before Hoffa

[gibson]

when you look at the above list, you have to say,
it has been a great year for track and field.

[croflash]

when you look at the above list, you have to say,
it has been a great year for track and field.

Mainly track though. Some field events have been rather underwhelming this season.

[bobguild76]

An additional thought regarding AOY ... Barring his disappointing Bronze medal at the Olympics, Reese Hoffa has been quite dominating in the SP. Yes, the bronze is a fair sized blemish (compared to other AOY contenders) on his 2012 record, but he has met the top competition even more than the 110 hurdlers, and has been stellar otherwise.

Honors won - B at OG, DL winner in SP w/ double the points of the runner-up, Majewski,
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else,
Sequence of marks - consistent 21 meter throws. Cantwell has the yearly lead, but Hoffa has the high end consistency.

Easily the top SP, and # 9 or 10 in AOY.

I don't see how someone with OG bronze and other loses gets ranked unless he's done something else outstanding performance wise

Rudisha
Merrit
Eaton
Bolt
Harting
Farah
Lavellenie
Blake
James
Ukhov
A Walker (i have no idea)


must all come before Hoffa

Excellent point. "... and other losses" For me, that's the key. Other than his WIC 4th place, does Hoffa have any other losses? And, will the WIC count in the AOY balloting? If so, he's out. Number one in the SP, but not enough to crack the AOY Top 10.

We must also consider that James & Ukhov have losses on their resume outside the OG. Apart from the OG, Hoffa would be ranked far higher than James or Ukhov. The question then is, How far does the OG Bronze pull Hoffa down - vis a vis James & Ukhov - when it comes to AOY rankings?

[gh]

A...
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else.

Not quite.
8-3 w/ Majewski
3-3 w/ Storl
10-1 w/ Whiting
8-1 w/ Cantwell
4-1 w/ Nelson

[dbirds]

dbirds wrote:
The question is: how do you rank a false start? On paper, it's last place but really it's not. Thoughts??

How could it be anything but last place? 7 guys crossed the line ahead of you, and it's your fault you weren't there, not theirs.

On paper, it is an 8th place finish but not in everyone's heads. A FS is not the same as finishing last. If Merritt had 2 last place losses, he would not be in contention for AOY.

[EPelle]

Either way, he failed to win a race he started.

[kuha]

How could it be anything but last place? 7 guys crossed the line ahead of you, and it's your fault you weren't there, not theirs.

I just don't see this. A false start ends up being a DNS, or at very worst, a DNF--vastly different from 8th place.

[gh]

...
Same this year. Merritt's 12.80 puts a sharp tip on the finest hurdling season since Hot-Rod Milburn took AOY in 1971. (Slightly better than Skeets in 1981.) According to the Jan 1972 AOY edition of T&FN (page 4), Milburn's AAU semi-final in 1971 was auto-timed in 12.94. gh, could you correct me if that has changed? ...

That's an artifact from the days when people tended to coinflate 100th-second timing with "automatic." It was not. That's a hand-time taken off a Datatimer, which is probably worse than regular hand timing because the same person isn't starting and stopping the clock.

[bobguild76]

A...
Won/Loss record - One loss to Majewski & Storl, Perfect (I think) vs everyone else.

Not quite.
8-3 w/ Majewski
3-3 w/ Storl
10-1 w/ Whiting
8-1 w/ Cantwell
4-1 w/ Nelson

Thanks gh! I just moved back from South Africa and didn't have my T&FN's to double check. Talk about feeling naked & unprepared! In that case, Hoffa doesn't merit consideration for the Top 10.

Thanks also for the update regarding Rod Milburn's 13.0h from 1971. In those days, we always added .14 (or was it .24?) to the hand timed to equal an auto time. Therefore, a 13.0h would translate to a 13.14 (or a 13.24), not a 12.94.

[aaronk]

IF...IF Merritt should be chosen the AOY, I hope T&FN does NOT headline the article.....

"Aries Merritt's AOY"!!

[iggy]

I wanted to post first. and then read! so i apologize if someone has already noted similarly.

I will say Merritt for AOY simple because of his season as a whole. The most sub 13 races clocked in a single season by one individual in hurdle history and to conclude it with a WR of 12.80!!!! WOW!
I would award Eaton for POY, PERFORMANCE of the year at the USA OTs! 10.20 and then 27ft minutes later.then having to PR by 4 seconds i believe in the 1500 for the WR.... just GREAT!

And as for Rudisha, despite his loss (i mean, damn, the dude is tired, he is human! cant knock him on that) he is a TIGHT second for best performance of the year. The guy not only dropped the WR to 1.40 but he lead the ENTIRE field to PRs and NRs!

[croflash]

How could it be anything but last place? 7 guys crossed the line ahead of you, and it's your fault you weren't there, not theirs.

I just don't see this. A false start ends up being a DNS, or at very worst, a DNF--vastly different from 8th place.

It is different because a false start is worse than finishing in last place. If someone has a false start, I don't see how that can be considered a DNS when he was physically present at the start line. It is like a false attempt for a field eventer, except that you only get one chance as a runner. Projecting a result based on the past is fine, but the athlete needs to prove it every single time. Everything else is speculation based on probabilities.

[Dave]

hmm. Merritt is on this months cover. I wonder if that means he is going to be AOY?

This year is an embarrassment of riches for a men's perspective.

[tandfman]

hmm. Merritt is on this months cover. I wonder if that means he is going to be AOY?

I doubt that it means anything more than that it was a picture of the most important race that occurred in the period between the publication of the last issue and the publication of this one.

[gh]

since the ballot haven't even gone out to the voters yet, it's indicative of nothing in the AOY department.

If we knew that he was the AOY we'd probably be LESS likely to use him now than moreso.