Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY?? [or Merritt?!]


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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:41 am

bushop wrote:For the sake if discussion. Would it hurt Bolt's AOY resumé if he ran, and lost, a 400m running 44-high.

No. That is not relevant to his primary events record. And to reiterate an oft-repeated statement by T&FN, doing multiple events does not automatically make you a stronger candidate for AOY, but doing them all superbly does.

Tuariki wrote:Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?

See above.

hc10003 wrote:This raises an interesting issue, specific to national trials: if the goal of trials is simply to qualify for OG, aren't they tantamount to heats?

No. Any nation with a competitive Oly Trials, that meet is de facto the biggest domestic (restricted to nationals only) meet of the year for all athletes.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Sun Sep 02, 2012 9:54 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!


I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby unclezadok » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:26 am

Even though I am a decathlon fan I think I'd vote for Rudisha.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby aaronk » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:38 am

With his 12.97 in Berlin today, Aries Merritt tied the all-time record for most sub-13's in one year.
If he breaks the record in Rieti or Brussels, or anywhere, should he be considered for AOY??
Or does he need to break the WR also??
And would even THAT do it??
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:51 am

aaronk wrote:Aries Merritt
does he need to break the WR also??
would even THAT do it??

A 12.85 would definitely sway me!
I think people are under-esteeming him because Liu, Robles and Oliver didn't mount the multi-sub-13 campaigns as many thought they would. This, however, was a stellar sticks year

12.92 Merritt
12.93 Merritt
12.93 Merritt
12.93 Merritt
12.94 Merritt
12.95 Merritt
12.97 Liu
12.98 Richardson
12.98 Richardson
12.98 Richardson
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:19 am

IMO as it stands today it is Rudisha, then Eaton as:
1. I rate Rudisha's WR performance higher than Eaton's
2. Rudisha's number of wins with quality performances
3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice

The only athlete that could upset that scenario is Merritt. IMO if he can break the WR then he would go to the top for AOY.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby MightyBurner » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:25 am

Merritt. He's been utterly dominant all year with a fluky loss or two.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:29 am

Dave wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!


I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.


Very serious. In fact Eaton should run a DL 1500 to prove how tough he is.... :lol:

But seriously, DR is the man. That Oly 800 is one for the ages.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby toyracer » Sun Sep 02, 2012 1:40 pm

Marlow wrote:No. Any nation with a competitive Oly Trials, that meet is de facto the biggest domestic (restricted to nationals only) meet of the year for all athletes.


Agreed, and its very name says it was. National Senior Championships. The representatives for the Olympic games just happened to be chosen from the results.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Sep 02, 2012 5:11 pm

The US Olympic Trials are often the second best meet of the year in a number of events.

Denigrating a decathlete because they only have three fabulous competitions in a year is somewhere in the naive direction. Or put it this way, he competed 27 times at the top level, once winning the OG and the other two setting World Records. The distance between his WR and the next best competitor is much bigger than anyone else. And the big one was set under pretty difficult conditions -- look what the wind and rain and cool weather does to high jumpers and 400 runners and hurdlers (e.g., Pearson's loss).
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Sun Sep 02, 2012 8:56 pm

Conor Dary wrote:
Dave wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
Tuariki wrote:
Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?


Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!


I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.


Very serious. In fact Eaton should run a DL 1500 to prove how tough he is.... :lol:

But seriously, DR is the man. That Oly 800 is one for the ages.


Let's see Mr. Rudisha pick up a shot or a vaulting pole. Not that I get to vote, but I am probably leaning toward Rudisha also. That said, Eaton also had an amazing season.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby EPelle » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:01 pm

Dave wrote:Let's see Mr. Rudisha pick up a shot or a vaulting pole.

Again? He's done the decathlon thing once. Turned into a sprinter.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:45 am

toyracer wrote:The representatives for the Olympic games just happened to be chosen from the results.

And in years without a major championship the fields at Nationals just happen to be much weaker...
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:51 am

aaronk wrote:With his 12.97 in Berlin today, Aries Merritt tied the all-time record for most sub-13's in one year.
If he breaks the record in Rieti or Brussels, or anywhere, should he be considered for AOY??
Or does he need to break the WR also??
And would even THAT do it??

He should be in the mix. In many other years his accomplishments would've been enough to win it; this year it's gonna be difficult to beat Eaton and Rudisha because of their WRs, though.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:56 am

MightyBurner wrote:Merritt. He's been utterly dominant all year with a fluky loss or two.

Gonna be tough for him to win it; maybe he can get enough second and third place votes to pull the upset, with the other first place votes split between Eaton and Rudisha. When Sam Bradford won the Heisman, Tebow got the most first place votes and only finished third.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby toyracer » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:24 am

j-a-m wrote:
toyracer wrote:The representatives for the Olympic games just happened to be chosen from the results.

And in years without a major championship the fields at Nationals just happen to be much weaker...


Agreed, but that doesn't diminish the fact that Bolt lost at the national trials, twice, this year, and he was running to win.
Last edited by toyracer on Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:31 am

Tuariki wrote:3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice.

TAFNY!!!!
Yeah, and he cherry-picked those meets - ducking the opposition by only showing up for the USA OT and the OG. (the WR was sooooo a fluke!) :lol:
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby jazzcyclist » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:42 am

Marlow wrote:
Tuariki wrote:3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice.

TAFNY!!!!
Yeah, and he cherry-picked those meets - ducking the opposition by only showing up for the USA OT and the OG. (the WR was sooooo a fluke!) :lol:

Rudisha also set a WR and won the Kenya OT and OG.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tandfman » Mon Sep 03, 2012 6:52 am

Obviously, if you say that someone who competed only twice during the year can never be the AOY, then you're saying that no decathlete or marathoner should ever be considered. I'm not sure everyone would agree.

The problem with Merritt as AOY, even if he does set the WR this week, is that he lost two Diamond League races and false started in two others. Rudisha and Eaton also got WRs this year, but Rudisha lost only once and Eaton not at all. Merritt, of course, competed in more meets than Rudisha and Eaton combined.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Marlow » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:14 am

jazzcyclist wrote:Rudisha also set a WR and won the Kenya OT and OG.

And Rudisha is indeed an awesome athlete. As I said before, it's sad that amazing athletes like Rudi and Bolt can't win AOY because they happened to lose on smaller stages, but that's how the AOY game is played. But . . . if Eaton does not win it, yeah, I can live with that too, even as much as I think he should win it.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Dave » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:42 am

EPelle wrote:
Dave wrote:Let's see Mr. Rudisha pick up a shot or a vaulting pole.

Again? He's done the decathlon thing once. Turned into a sprinter.


Seriously? How did it turn out?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tgs3 » Mon Sep 03, 2012 10:54 am

tandfman wrote:Obviously, if you say that someone who competed only twice during the year can never be the AOY, then you're saying that no decathlete or marathoner should ever be considered. I'm not sure everyone would agree.


Two competitions is a little on the low side, even for decathletes. Most of them will end up doing 3 decathlons this year. Some will even do as many as 5.

However, I do think indoor events should count for AOY voting, so I'd have no problem with Eaton as AOY.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:43 pm

tgs3 wrote:However, I do think indoor events should count for AOY voting, so I'd have no problem with Eaton as AOY.


But they don't count. It's not the same event.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Mon Sep 03, 2012 3:57 pm

Flumpy wrote:
tgs3 wrote:However, I do think indoor events should count for AOY voting, so I'd have no problem with Eaton as AOY.


But they don't count. It's not the same event.


AOY isn't based on one event, wouldn't count towards Dec No1

I think it should count and if it did i would have no problem with him being AOY
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Flumpy » Mon Sep 03, 2012 4:24 pm

Good point.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby Tuariki » Mon Sep 03, 2012 5:04 pm

tandfman wrote:Obviously, if you say that someone who competed only twice during the year can never be the AOY, then you're saying that no decathlete or marathoner should ever be considered. I'm not sure everyone would agree.

You should read what I said. I have never said Eaton, or anyone else with only 2 comps, should not be considered as AOY. However, I am saying that where someone like Rudisha has 9 comps then I would not penalise Rudisha for his latest loss in comparison to Eaton. And while I personally favour Rudsiha for AOY I would not have any problems if Eaton wins.

tandfman wrote:The problem with Merritt as AOY, even if he does set the WR this week, is that he lost two Diamond League races and false started in two others. Rudisha and Eaton also got WRs this year, but Rudisha lost only once and Eaton not at all. Merritt, of course, competed in more meets than Rudisha and Eaton combined.

If we compare Merrit only to the comps that Eaton competed in OT and OG then both were undefeated but Eaton is rated higher because of the WR. If Merrit sets a WR in the next week or so then does his overall record offset Eaton? IMO it would. I guess IYO it won't. No problem with that. In such circumstances Rudisha, Eaton and Merritt would all be a worthy winner of AOY.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 4:10 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Tuariki wrote:3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice.

TAFNY!!!!
Yeah, and he cherry-picked those meets - ducking the opposition by only showing up for the USA OT and the OG. (the WR was sooooo a fluke!) :lol:

Rudisha also set a WR and won the Kenya OT and OG.


And he beat the defending World Champion both times, right? The comment is the Eaton only competed twice.

Bolt has a foot in the bucket because he is only 1-1 in both his events versus another individual whom he refused to race on any other occasion. This is one of the costs of ducking -- and in my mind ought to be imposed as much as possible to show the cost of doing so. My guess is that if Bolt had raced the Beast 5-6 more times he would have a couple more defeats.
Ducking so that you do not lose to keep your record clean means that your record is thin, and Bolt's is decidedly thin with a mere single victory over his top opponent in each event -- note that Eaton beat is primary opponent twice in his two competitions.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Tue Sep 04, 2012 4:14 am

26mi235 wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
Marlow wrote:
Tuariki wrote:3. It is not that difficult to go undefeated if you only compete twice.

TAFNY!!!!
Yeah, and he cherry-picked those meets - ducking the opposition by only showing up for the USA OT and the OG. (the WR was sooooo a fluke!) :lol:

Rudisha also set a WR and won the Kenya OT and OG.


And he beat the defending World Champion both times, right? The comment is the Eaton only competed twice.


Youo don't get bonus points for beating 'the defending world champion' !!

How can Rudisha compete with that anyway ? he is the defending World Champ :?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tandfman » Tue Sep 04, 2012 10:44 am

Tuariki wrote:If Merrit sets a WR in the next week or so then does his overall record offset Eaton? IMO it would. I guess IYO it won't. No problem with that. In such circumstances Rudisha, Eaton and Merritt would all be a worthy winner of AOY.

I agree. My comments were not meant to suggest that the choice is at all clear.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby dbirds » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:01 am

Given comments on wAOY thread does it hurt Eaton that he was 3rd in LJ at Walnut?

Was he now? That is enough for me. DR is the Man!

I am not sure if you're being facetious or not.

One way or the other, a very deserving athlete is going to come in second here.

Very serious. In fact Eaton should run a DL 1500 to prove how tough he is....

But seriously, DR is the man. That Oly 800 is one for the ages.


And Eaton's 9039 WR in the rain is not??

So, if Rudisha had run a 400 and finished 4th then Eaton would be ahead??

Finally, Eaton also has a heptathlon WR to his credit. Sure, it's not the same as a deca but it's a legit event and he won it and broke a WR. The fact that the event favors him is not a knock on the event - it's a compliment to him. Did Rudisha or Merritt break an indoor WR this year? All 3 are awesome (Bolt too) but Eaton should win. He could not have done more this year!
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gh » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:35 am

dbirds wrote:.... but Eaton should win. He could not have done more this year!


Well, actually he could. Skipping Götzis so close to the OT was the right choice. If he were to show up at Talence in a couple of weeks and win with a mid-8000s score, I suspect he'd become a pretty clear choice for a lot of people.

I'm still leaning towards him even with only the pair of meets. (and bringing up the indoor heptathlon, at least in terms of T&FN's AOY award, is a waste of time. The mark will not be on his cv and the voting instructions will contain usual boilerplate regards the ignoring of such events)
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tm71 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:49 am

i think it has been made clear that the indoor heptathlon, indoor 800 and indoor 60 hurdles do not count in considering the AOY. Rudisha had some great sequence of marks in addition to his WR at the olympics. However, Eaton has practically been perfect winning the OT by almost 700 points over the world champion and breaking the 11 yr old WR, then winning the OG by 200 points over the defending world champion and the best the world had to offer. Both of his scores were in the top 8 performances ever, so the only thing Eaton did not do was break his WR from the trials at the olympics. Or post another big score in a meaningless early season meet. The comment that he would lose to mediocre club level atheltes in most of the event is totally ignorant. His 8.23 long jump at the trials would have put him on the us team and would have given him silver in london (had he repeated it). Even his long jump mark in london would have been good enough to give him three more jumps in the final.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby j-a-m » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:29 pm

gh wrote:I'm still leaning towards him even with only the pair of meets.

How about the following argument in favor of Eaton: He's won convincingly not only in good conditions, but also in the rain. When Rudisha ran in the rain, he didn't win, indicating he's not equally great under adverse conditions.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby tm71 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:45 pm

j-a-m wrote:
gh wrote:I'm still leaning towards him even with only the pair of meets.

How about the following argument in favor of Eaton: He's won convincingly not only in good conditions, but also in the rain. When Rudisha ran in the rain, he didn't win, indicating he's not equally great under adverse conditions.


to add to this, some of the events eaton competes in can severely be affected by the rain (such as high jump, hurdles, discus, pole vault).
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:24 pm

tm71 wrote:i think it has been made clear that the indoor heptathlon, indoor 800 and indoor 60 hurdles do not count in considering the AOY. Rudisha had some great sequence of marks in addition to his WR at the olympics. However, Eaton has practically been perfect winning the OT by almost 700 points over the world champion and breaking the 11 yr old WR, then winning the OG by 200 points over the defending world champion and the best the world had to offer. Both of his scores were in the top 8 performances ever, so the only thing Eaton did not do was break his WR from the trials at the olympics. Or post another big score in a meaningless early season meet. The comment that he would lose to mediocre club level atheltes in most of the event is totally ignorant. His 8.23 long jump at the trials would have put him on the us team and would have given him silver in london (had he repeated it). Even his long jump mark in london would have been good enough to give him three more jumps in the final.


WHo cares that he beat 'the defending world champion' it's totally irrelevant. Harting, Rudisha, Bolt, Farah either are the world champ or beat him as well.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby toyracer » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:35 pm

gh wrote:and bringing up the indoor heptathlon, at least in terms of T&FN's AOY award, is a waste of time. The mark will not be on his cv and the voting instructions will contain usual boilerplate regards the ignoring of such events


gh, I honestly don't know hence I ask; why?
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Sep 04, 2012 8:57 pm

To me also, the multi events are ones that cannot be competed very often. Eaton showing up and scoring 8500 [does anyone here really think that an 8500 Deca is anywhere close to a 6600 Hept; the one has been done once, the other possibly 100 times] at Talence is worth a lot less than beating the WR in the closest thing to a decathlon you can imagine. I can hardly think of a competition that would be more of an anticlimax than another decathlon. He may have one the OT with the largest margin ever, and did it by defeating the defending WC and the defending OC.

Here, we are not talking about the event top performer, but the AOY, and setting a WR in an event competed at the WIC, and in fact doing it at the WIC, seems particularly relevant rather than something to be absolutely ignored.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby mump boy » Wed Sep 05, 2012 2:00 am

I don't get why multi eveners are seemingly getting a free pass from competing ?

As GH said there are other opportunities for AE to compete (and win large prize money). Gotzis was a month before trials, Multistar a month before that and Decastar a Month after London, but he has seemly chosen not to. Why is anyone who has achieved all they need to this year still competing ? Why didn't everyone just go home after London ?

Obviously i don't expect them to compete week in week out like other events but if they don't even take part in those that are available to them, then i can't compare them fairly to athletes who have competed 5 times as much and may have 1 loss. If we think Eatons achievements this year are superior to everyone else's (there is of course an argument for this) that's fine but others shouldn't be marked down for losing when competing a lot more frequently
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby gibson » Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:05 am

there should be no penalty to rudisha what so ever for losing at seasons end in less than great conditions (for him).

say tiger woods wins 6 tournaments by 5 or 10 strokes and then finishes second by one in the last event of the season in the rain.....

say it was bolt and he blew away the competition by the equivalent rushida did this year (1-2 seconds) = 0.2 seconds in the 100. then loses in the rain for the first time by 0.01 to a guy he squashed all year???

you get the picture.
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Re: Rudisha loses...Eaton AOY??

Postby DecFan » Wed Sep 05, 2012 9:34 am

Surely we can all agree on two points:

1) A loss for someone who competes only 2x in a year is more important than a loss for someone who competes many more times. Had Eaton lost either of his decathlon competitions this year, he would not be in consideration at all for AOY, regardless of the greatness of his other performance.

2) A loss is worse than a win, or not competing. Duh. Rudisha's record is unquestionably blemished by losing to Aman. Certainly an argument can be made that his season still merits AOY, but a loss is still a loss.
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