What's up with JW?


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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:25 am

Totally agree that he's done as an athlete. Right now he's just collecting the check. Not intentionally I'm sure. He just doens't know yet that he's tlost the ticker that makes him different to many others with his talent.

I don't think physically he has lost enough to be considered old. But mentally, I don't think he's got it anymore.

Like Steve Hooker.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tm71 » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:19 am

true there aren't many elite 400 meter runners, currently, his age or older. comparing his situation to MJ, reynolds and juantorena running fast late in their careers is not a valid comparison. Juantorena competed before the era of the grand prix/diamond league even before the world championships. MJ is an exception, how he won in 2000 at age 33 and retired the next year. Reynolds won two of his world championships medals at 29 and 31 (older than JW) and made the team in 96 (dnf in his heat due to injury), but he was out of the sport for two years. I agree that at the highest level most athletes (even the great ones) have a finite number of years at the top. There are only a number of fast races one has in their legs. JW has been running sub 45 since he was 20 yrs old (eight years now) and it is very likely he does not have much left in his legs. As far as the next olympics it is totally unrealistic to consider that he will qualify for those cosider the natural decline. With the exception of MJ the most recent olympic champions have been 19 (Steve Lewis), 22 (Quincy Watts), 20 (JW), 22 (LM) and 19 (Kirani James). I think the us will have a total new crew in the 400 by Rio and i doubt that either JW or LM will be on the team.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby sprintzfan » Thu Aug 23, 2012 9:38 am

This thread is depressing! :wink:

No but thanks to all you folks, for helping me be more realistic about what I am hoping/expecting of JW.

You know Ive heard in various other sports, the adage about an athlete only having so many good seasons or games or fights in his/her body, but I think this is the first time I've heard it about running.

I think my uneducated presumption, was just that runners lose it, because they get older, and the body just can't do at say 34, what it did at 24. (And then older athletes start rupturing their Achilles and stuff.) But the "only so many fast races in your legs" is a different concept than plain old aging. And like I said, I'd heard it in other sports but not really track. So thanks to all who made this point. It does shed some light for me at least.

p.s. Since a runner only has so many fast times in his/her legs, is there any danger of a young athlete competing in TOO MANY meets, to early in his/her career? And as a corollary I guess, is it possible for some kind of natural phenom type runner, who hadn't competed much as a junior or say at all in college, start to only devote himself to the sport at a later age (say 22), and as a result of that late start run faster at an advanced age, than his peers who started running full time at a more typical young age?

Hope these questions make sense.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:13 am

I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

JW has no unfinished business. Success is a measure of how much you can put your body through. Once there is no reason for the body to go through that, its hard to really whip it up to world class level again. Its like a switch goes off. I suspect JW is in great shape. He'll probably talk about training sessions that were as good as he ever did. But racing at his old level is a step beyond that.

Once that need goes away its hard to recreate it. You bust your hump and the times don't come.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby lonewolf » Thu Aug 23, 2012 12:58 pm

I do not ascribe to the "only so many fast races in your legs" theory..I believe it is simply that different people peak at different ages; after which there is inexorable decline despite rigorous training and undimished desire.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tandfman » Thu Aug 23, 2012 4:30 pm

FWIW, JW tweeted today that he'll get under 43 one day. He may or may not but at least in his mind, he's by no means over the hill.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 3:08 am

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
That's what my momma used to say.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 7:15 pm

mal wrote:I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you picked the wrong athletes to compare.
Gatlin had 4 years off and Butch had 2 years away.

Kim Collins and Angelo Taylor are better comparisons.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:09 pm

ATK wrote:
mal wrote:I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you picked the wrong athletes to compare.
Gatlin had 4 years off and Butch had 2 years away.

Kim Collins and Angelo Taylor are better comparisons.


Why?

I think 'my' guys fit more with my view. The two you mentionsed are extraordinary. They have extended their "usefulness". More credit to them The exceptions.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:37 pm

mal wrote:
ATK wrote:
mal wrote:I really don't think it has anything to do with miles on the legs. Unless he is really broken. Guys like Gatlin hang in there, So did Butch Reynolds. They stay cos they have a goal that needs to be met. They keep themselves going because they have unfinished business.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you picked the wrong athletes to compare.
Gatlin had 4 years off and Butch had 2 years away.

Kim Collins and Angelo Taylor are better comparisons.


Why?

I think 'my' guys fit more with my view. The two you mentionsed are extraordinary. They have extended their "usefulness". More credit to them The exceptions.

They way I interpreted your statement is that you don't think Wariner's decline has anything to do with how much he has run/competed in his career.

Gatlin took 4 years out from the sport, no competitive racing at all. When he came back he didn't have as many miles in his legs.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 5:00 am

True, I don't think it has anything to do with his racing history. I think white guys mature later, so 25 - 32 is prime. Physiology says males can maintain strength out to 35. He's not worn out.

Gatlin and Reynolds got older, and came back strong, but I believe it was the mental targets that kept them competitive, not the fact that they may have been wrapped in cotton wool for a cople of years. And I am sure they worked hard in the interim, not at current levels, but they didn't go to Eagles games and tailgate.

JW had a couple of niggles, but nothing life threatening. I think its more what's in his head. The comment that he still wants to break 43 is a way to try jolly up his motivation, but I am not sure that's enough for him.

Perhaps he should do the Rocky thing and move to Siberia?

I see athletes who win, make money, then get comfy, then hang around cos there is too much money. And wonder why they finish in the pack and not at the front.

You need desperation and wonder to make it to the top. Once those are gone its tough to squeeze a couple of extra yards out of yourself.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:26 am

mal wrote:JW had a couple of niggles, but nothing life threatening. I think its more what's in his head. The comment that he still wants to break 43 is a way to try jolly up his motivation, but I am not sure that's enough for him.

If you would have said that back in May I would have agreed with you but then this article popped up before trials.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/news-blogs/t ... place.html
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby EPelle » Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:01 am

For perspective on the wear and tear on Wariner's legs, it might be worth drawing a dotted line to 100m averages in his race. Wariner's seasonal best 4x100m averages were ca. 10,98/10,90/10,86/10,95, respectively, in his sub-44 seasons. Since his last sub-44 season (2008), he's averaged 11,15/11,03/11,22/11,24 seasonal bests averages from 2009-2012. He'll need 10,7475 on average to reach his goal of sub-43. If viewed strictly from a 100m perspective, it doesn't seem plausible that a sprinter can go from four-consecutive seasons averaging 11,16 to the 10,7-range whilst previously not having ever run faster than 10,86 -- and that being just once...six seasons back. There's likely a woman sprinter outlier who's achieved just that. Perhaps not. At any rate, I don't see Wariner averaging 4x100m at his dream pace given the above.

Wariner's 43,45 was 0,26 seconds faster than the sum of the top four women's 100m times that season (43,71). For all intents and purposes, Wariner peaked that season, shaving off an average of 0,04 seconds per 100m from the 43,62 he ran in 2006. It's truly going to be in his dreams to reach that level of sprinting again. But, it's not impossible.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby mal » Sat Aug 25, 2012 7:25 am

ATK wrote:
mal wrote:JW had a couple of niggles, but nothing life threatening. I think its more what's in his head. The comment that he still wants to break 43 is a way to try jolly up his motivation, but I am not sure that's enough for him.

If you would have said that back in May I would have agreed with you but then this article popped up before trials.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/news-blogs/t ... place.html


When I said I was not sure it was enough. I meant enough to get him over his hump.

I think that article confirms that he has other things in his life. He is all at sea. Focus seems to be lost. It is competing in importance. Seems like he is over his time in the sun. IHe needs to find something to reframe his interest if he wants to be the man again. I don't think he's physically incapable. I think he can get there, but he has to find a reason in himself to get there. Packing a kids lunch and attending PTA meetings are drains at that level. You grow up and grow out of the top echelon.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby user4 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:01 am

mal wrote:
ATK wrote:If you would have said that back in May I would have agreed with you but then this article popped up before trials.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/news-blogs/t ... place.html


...

I think that article confirms that he has other things in his life. He is all at sea. Focus seems to be lost. It is competing in importance. Seems like he is over his time in the sun. IHe needs to find something to reframe his interest if he wants to be the man again. I don't think he's physically incapable. I think he can get there, but he has to find a reason in himself to get there. Packing a kids lunch and attending PTA meetings are drains at that level. You grow up and grow out of the top echelon.


mal nails it. I never met an athlete that did better while taking on all kinds of extra family luggage. In those cases where marriage does improve an athlete it is in cases where the spouse allows greater focus on the track and greater support of the athlete. Not the other way around. As the great governor of the state of Texas used to say: Stick a fork in 'em.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby tandfman » Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:20 am

A tweet from JW:

>>Jeremy Wariner‏@Jwariner

Lincoln Kai Wariner was born Oct 9, 2012. 6.5lbs. 19 3/4. 12:51am<<


Congratulations!
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby Marlow » Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:36 am

tandfman wrote:A tweet from JW:
>>Jeremy Wariner‏@Jwariner
Lincoln Kai Wariner was born Oct 9, 2012. 6.5lbs. 19 3/4. 12:51am<<
Congratulations!

Let that be the incentive he needs to figure out where he went off the rails and how to get himself back on track. He's not old enough to be over the hill.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby ATK » Thu Oct 11, 2012 3:59 pm

Marlow wrote:He's not old enough to be over the hill.

Arguable in his event. especially at a time like now.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby jainny » Sat Oct 13, 2012 2:00 am

Hello
Greetings to all members of this community.I am jainny from India.I am new member here..
nice to meet you all…….
Thanks
----------------
dainik bhasker
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby gh » Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:46 am

welcome!
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby slowcat » Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:10 pm

Related to JW and age. I am surprised that there has been no mention of Mike Larrabee. He was unable to make the Olympic team in 1956 or 1960 but while working several jobs in 1964 ran his best and won two golds in Tokyo. At 31 years of age, he still had the desire and not the early awards.
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Re: What's up with JW?

Postby user4 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 1:20 pm

slowcat wrote:Related to JW and age. I am surprised that there has been no mention of Mike Larrabee. He was unable to make the Olympic team in 1956 or 1960 but while working several jobs in 1964 ran his best and won two golds in Tokyo. At 31 years of age, he still had the desire and not the early awards.


Larrabee at 30 had not run at the elite to 10 level for 8 years straight going into 1964:

1955: 10th
1957: 2nd
1964: 1st

There is alot of wear and tear that happens with training and racing at the peak level for 8 years... Wariner has put those miles on the car and they dont come off with age.
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