If it is Gods willing which athletes will we see in Rio ?

[jamal00005]

I heard allyson said it was definately a possibility and demus also said she wants to win gold there . i would imagine all things being equal Bolt would go again and so will Blake

[GDAWG]

Americans who have said that they were going to Rio:

- LaShawn Merritt
- Michelle Carter
- Chaunte Lowe
- Lashinda Demus
- Allyson Felix
- Britney Reese

Carter saId in a local interview here in Dallas that at the next Olympics, the expectation is for her to get on the medal stand.

As for the Jamaicans: Probably Blake, Bolt, SAFP, Parchment, Kalise Spencer

[Vault-emort]

Sally Pearson has said 'at least' one more Olympics after London.

[GDAWG]

Bolt just said in his post race interview for NBC that he's going to finish in Rio.

[Fortius19]

Jeter now saying she's aiming for Rio.

From front page today: http://www.dailybreeze.com/sports/ci_21522981/jeters-return-bishop-montgomery-produces-an-inspiring-celebration

Or at least the article says she is. Wouldn't be the first article to mis-quote or make up a statement an athlete didn't say.

[GDAWG]

A lot of the US Track and Field that competed in London have said that they would be in Rio or try to get to Rio.

[18.99s]

VCB said she hopes to compete in Rio.

http://www.antiguaobserver.com/?p=79403

At age 30 and with four Olympiads behind her, Campbell-Brown said she believed she can compete at the 2016 Games in Rio de Janiero.

“I think so, hopefully, I will be 34, my hero (Merlene Ottey) is 52, she is still running, so I’ll see,” Campbell-Brown said.

[uakari]

what's god got to do with this? jesus at least will be watching atop the mountain (corcovado?) but i'm not sure about god. (and what's up with the poor grammar?)

[Anthony Treacher]

The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs must also be willing. Any prospect of Brazil relaxing its visa requirement for American citizens by 2016?

[lonewolf]

God is on the selection committee?

[Fortius19]

This is the best prior post I could find about Rio. The other ones were not as specific about including all who plan on going.

I thought it was interesting Jeter is talking about it. Being 32, some people were saying this was her last chance at an Oly medal. I wonder if she would be thinking about it if she won Gold.

I still remember how bitterly disappointed Demus was by not winning Gold. She immediately talked about Gold in Rio.

[18.99s]

The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs must also be willing. Any prospect of Brazil relaxing its visa requirement for American citizens by 2016?

Only if the US relaxes the visa requirement for Brazilian citizens.

[Tuariki]

If you had to choose which athlete, as of today, is the biggest gold medal favourite for Rio it would have to be Valerie Adams.

[26mi235]

:)

This is the best prior post I could find about Rio. The other ones were not as specific about including all who plan on going.

I thought it was interesting Jeter is talking about it. Being 32, some people were saying this was her last chance at an Oly medal. I wonder if she would be thinking about it if she won Gold.

I still remember how bitterly disappointed Demus was by not winning Gold. She immediately talked about Gold in Rio.

Jeter ran 11.43 early in college (and it is not in her IAAF bio, so a lot of people think she jumped from around 11.6 down to world-class instantly (not a bad surmise given normal info) but then was injured later in college and some for the next several years. And, she went to a DII school close to home and was not in a real major competitive environment. As a result, she did not really get good coaching and did not start working intensively until later in life. Thus, competitively she is a young 32, especially since she is one that probably matured late as opposed to early (like Felix, etc.).

[Pego]

As a result, she did not really get good coaching and did not start working intensively until later in life. Thus, competitively she is a young 32, especially since she is one that probably matured late as opposed to early (like Felix, etc.).

Unfortunately, biology does not work like that. 36 is 36. Yes, there are Merlene Otteys in the world but very rare and you cannot anticipate it.

[Powell]

If you had to choose which athlete, as of today, is the biggest gold medal favourite for Rio it would have to be Valerie Adams.

There's young talent coming through, though. Adams is not too old to maintain her form for 4 more years, but I don't see her improving much any more. Kolodko already looks like she can become a big threat to Adams' dominance pretty soon, and others could get to that level by 2016, too.

[KevinM]

If Thor has anything to say about it, the javelin should be spectacular!

[gh]

OK, "contest" time (although I have no idea which of us will actually remember it 4 years hence!).

Name 10 Rio medalists (not gold medalists, medal of any color; and talking individual medals only, no relay).

And let me make it just a tad more interesting: you can't say Bolt.

I'm guessing the average score will be 5.

[gh]

Needless to say, "name 10" means that you only get to choose 10 to begin with. It's not open-ended.

[Tuariki]

If you had to choose which athlete, as of today, is the biggest gold medal favourite for Rio it would have to be Valerie Adams.

There's young talent coming through, though. Adams is not too old to maintain her form for 4 more years, but I don't see her improving much any more. Kolodko already looks like she can become a big threat to Adams' dominance pretty soon, and others could get to that level by 2016, too.

At 27 years of age Valerie is still young in terms of shot putting and has at least 2 more Olympics in her to perform at the very top if she retains her desire to do so,

Kolodko has certainly improved but I think she has a long way to go. At age 21 and 22 they are very similar in distances. However, looking at this years performances in terms of distance and consistency Valerie is way in front.

2012
Adams - Kolodko - Diff
21.11 - - 20.48 - - 0.63
21.03 - - 20.22 - - 0.81
20.97 - - 20.15 - - 0.82
20.95 - - 19.31 - - 1.64
20.77 - - 19.08 - - 1.69
20.70 - - 18.64 - - 2.06


Adams - Kolodko - Diff - - Age
20.54 - - 20.48 - - 0.06 - - 22
20.20 - - 20.22 - -(0.02)- - 21
19.87 - - 18.90 - - 0.97 - - 20

And just based on their respective sizes I think Valerie has a lot more potential to improve than Kolodko.

[lionelp1]

We should perhaps bear in mind that in respect of the top 8 athletes in individual events, excluding walks, from the 2008 Beijing Olympics to the 2012 London OG , 22.5 % only who top eighted in Beijing repeated the top 8 in London for male athletes, and for female athletes the percentage figure was 25 %.
In numbers 36 guys did the top 8 repeat and 40 women over 20 events and 160 athletes.
In 5 events ,4 for men and 1 for women, no athlete who top eighted in Beijing repeated that achievement 4 years later this August.

Clearly a tough call to repeat over 4 years.

[berkeley]

Needless to say, "name 10" means that you only get to choose 10 to begin with. It's not open-ended.

In no particular order:

Blake
K. James
Rudisha
Eaton
Felix
Barshim
Perkovic
Barrett
Ennis
Adams

Of course there are many up and comers already on the scene who will be in their prime, but I've purposely chosen 10 who have already shown championship mettle, not (so far) injury prone, and will still be young enough in 2016. Omitted Mo (too much fast-rising talent in the distances) and Merritt (fickle event). Christian Taylor was my #11.

[Per Andersen]

Blake
Kirani James
Jehue Gordon
Kimberly Duncan
Kaliese Spencer
David Storl
Vira Rebryk
Mutaz Barshim
Petr Frydrych
Ashton Eaton

[lionelp1]

Blake
James
Consesius Kipruto
Jehue Gordon
Barshim
Taylor (TJ)
Storl
Eaton
K.Duncan
Alamirew

[j-a-m]

Name 10 Rio medalists (not gold medalists, medal of any color; and talking individual medals only, no relay).

Eaton
C. Taylor
Rudisha
K. James
Blake
Felix
SAFP
V. Adams
Ashley Spencer
KJT

[nevetsllim]

Fun game (or futile, not sure which ) although we will have forgotten about it in 4y (or more likely 4wks)

Adams
Perkovic
Rudisha
Lashmanova
Storl
Ruh
Blake
James
Niyonsaba
Felix

[tandfman]

The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs must also be willing. Any prospect of Brazil relaxing its visa requirement for American citizens by 2016?

Doesn't the Olympic athletes' credential serve as a visa?

In any event, before we get to Brazil, we've still got to deal with World Championships in Russia and China, both of which require visas.

[18.99s]

We should perhaps bear in mind that in respect of the top 8 athletes in individual events, excluding walks, from the 2008 Beijing Olympics to the 2012 London OG , 22.5 % only who top eighted in Beijing repeated the top 8 in London for male athletes, and for female athletes the percentage figure was 25 %.
In numbers 36 guys did the top 8 repeat and 40 women over 20 events and 160 athletes.
In 5 events ,4 for men and 1 for women, no athlete who top eighted in Beijing repeated that achievement 4 years later this August.

Clearly a tough call to repeat over 4 years.

6th to 8th is a very different class of athlete than 1st to 3rd. Medalists would be more likely to have the funding, coaching, and talent to continue to perform strongly at the next Olympics. Your analysis was for the top 8, but the picture may be different for medalists.

What are the stats for Beijing medalists in individual events? What percent of them won another medal in London? What percent of them placed in the top 5?

[Tuariki]

Name 10 Rio medalists (not gold medalists, medal of any color; and talking individual medals only, no relay).

And let me make it just a tad more interesting: you can't say Bolt.

Adams
Jacko Gill
Pearson
Perkovic
Rudisha
Harting
Storl
Blake
James
Christian Taylor

[iain]

Yohan Blake
Kirani James
Kaliese Spencer
Perri Shakes-Drayton
Francine Niyonsaba
Mutaz Essa Barshim
Valerie Adams
Christian Taylor
Lawrence Okoye
Holly Bleadsedale

[TN1965]

Yohan Blake.
Kirani James.
Ashton Eaton.
Nijel Amos.
Christian Taylor.
Allyson Felix.
Valerie Adams.
Francine Niyonsaba.
Elena Lashmanova.
Genzebe Dibaba.

[Tuariki]

OK, "contest" time (although I have no idea which of us will actually remember it 4 years hence!).

As long as you are still operating this message board in 2016 it will not be an issue.

I look forward to boasting about my 10 for 10 in 4 years time with New Zealand being the dominant shot put nation in the world as we win both women's and men's shot. Because of Jamaica we had to choose some other area of athletics besides the sprints.

[Fortius19]

At first I thought the rules were you had to pick from the recent Oly medalists. Now I see that that wasn't a requirement. Don't know if that would change my picks anyway.

Adams (I agree she is the biggest lock, I can see her getting two more Oly golds)
Blake
K James
Rudisha
Gebremeskel
Storl
Eaton
Semenya
Lashmanova
B. Reese

Lots of similar picks so far, but I just don't see C. Taylor in the TJ. Maybe because I remember how Tamagho seemed poised to rule for years. And then didn't.

[lionelp1]

Fun game (or futile, not sure which ) although we will have forgotten about it in 4y (or more likely 4wks)

Adams
Perkovic
Rudisha
Lashmanova
Storl
Ruh
Blake
James
Niyonsaba
Felix

No need to remember.... if you can keep certain documents for life for christ sake... put your list on a little piece of paper some where safe... no problem.

[Tuariki]

Lots of similar picks so far, but I just don't see C. Taylor in the TJ. Maybe because I remember how Tamagho seemed poised to rule for years. And then didn't.

But Taylor isn't a psycho