¶2012 OG: m400H–Felix Sanchez (DomR) 47.63

[dj]

T&FN formchart advancing to final

1. Javier Culson (Puerto Rico)
2. Dai Greene (Great Britain)
3. Angelo Taylor (USA)
4. LJ van Zyl (South Africa)
5. Michael Tinsley (USA)
6. Amaechi Morton (Nigeria)
7. Kerron Clement (USA)
8. Cornel Fredericks (South Africa)
9. Félix Sánchez (Dominican Rep)
10. Rhys Williams (Great Britain)

Also to final:
Jehue Gordon (Trinidad)
Leford Green (Jamaica)

[Marlow]

AT could win . . . or not make the final. Same for KC.

[Grasshopper]

VanZyl's had a knee injury that's hampered his season so far. He's been running horribly, struggling to break 50-seconds (which I think he's only done on one occasion, 49.5'ish). He's stated that the knee is recovered, but I imagine his fitness will have suffered. I'd love to see him medal, especially after the disappointment of having such an oustanding domestic season last year only to fade during his winter (our summer).

[Weights&Shoes]

STARTLIST:

400 Metres Hurdles - M Heats
Qual. rule: first 3 of each heat (Q) plus the 6 fastest times (q) qualified.

Heat 1:
Friday 03 August 2012 - 11:15

2 2225 Takayuki Kishimoto [JAPAN]
3 1039 Brendan Cole [AUSTRALIA]
4 1155 Kenneth Medwood [BELIZE]
5 2571 Amaechi Morton [NIGERIA]
6 1483 Amaurys R. Valle [CUBA]
7 2172 Roxroy Cato [JAMAICA]
8 3032 Chieh Chen [CHINESE TAIPEI]
9 1353 Zhilong Li [PR OF CHINA]

Heat 2:
Friday 03 August 2012 - 11:22

2 2970 Kariem Hussein [SWITZERLAND]
3 3258 Michael Tinsley [UNITED STATES]
4 2176 Leford Green [JAMAICA]
5 2231 Akihiko Nakamura [JAPAN]
6 2528 Kurt Couto [MOZAMBIQUE]
7 1559 Winder Cuevas [DOMINICAN REPUBLIC]
8 2741 Eric Alejandro [PUERTO RICO]
9 1666 Rasmus Mägi [ESTONIA]

Heat 3:
Friday 03 August 2012 - 11:29

1 1812 David Greene [GREAT BRITAIN & N.I.]
2 1345 Wen Cheng [PR OF CHINA]
3 3028 Lankantien Lamboni [TOGO]
4 2782 Cornel Fredericks [SOUTH AFRICA]
5 2309 Vincent Kiplangat Kosgei [KENYA]
6 2932 Brent LaRue [SLOVENIA]
7 2746 Jamele Mason [PUERTO RICO]
8 2947 Emir Bekric [SERBIA]
9 2128 José Reynaldo Bencosme de Leon [ITALY]

Heat 4:
Friday 03 August 2012 - 11:36

1 1444 Maoulida Daroueche [COMOROS]
2 3212 Kerron Clement [UNITED STATES]
3 1065 Tristan Thomas [AUSTRALIA]
4 2743 Javier Culson [PUERTO RICO]
5 1135 Michaël Bultheel [BELGIUM]
6 1843 Rhys Williams [GREAT BRITAIN & N.I.]
7 1465 Omar Cisneros [CUBA]
8 2714 Jorge Paula [PORTUGAL]
9 2826 Viacheslav Sakaev [RUSSIA]

Heat 5:
Friday 03 August 2012 - 11:43

2 2270 Viktor Leptikov [KAZAKHSTAN]
3 3255 Angelo Taylor [UNITED STATES]
4 3140 Stanislav Melnykov [UKRAINE]
5 1921 Silvio Schirrmeister [GERMANY]
6 2791 L.J. van Zyl [SOUTH AFRICA]
7 1522 Josef Prorok [CZECH REPUBLIC]
8 1981 Periklís Iakovákis [GREECE]
9 3043 Jehue Gordon [TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO]

Heat 6:
Friday 03 August 2012 - 11:50

2 3329 Artem Dyatlov [UZBEKISTAN]
3 2312 Boniface Mucheru [KENYA]
4 3201 Andrés Silva [URUGUAY]
5 2186 Josef Robertson [JAMAICA]
6 2239 Tetsuya Tateno [JAPAN]
7 1563 Felix Sánchez [DOMINICAN REPUBLIC]
8 1811 Jack Green [GREAT BRITAIN & N.I.]
9 2910 Mamadou Kasse Hanne [SENEGAL]

[vencio2]

i'm rooting for our other (jack) green ... i think he could spring a surprise here

[Flumpy]

Me too (We went to the same school). Very odd to have Williams on the form chart but not Green.

[gh]

That's one of the wonderful things about predictions: if they managed to dupe what everybody is thinking, imagine how boring they would be. Much better do engender "WTF?" reactions here and there. Well, so long as here or there doesn't include missing the gold medalist completely. (can you say Dani Samuels?)

[preston]

I also think Jack Green should be ahead of Williams but we will see what those formchart guys know soon enough.

Also, look out for one of the athletes from Japan. I don't know if 400h is the equivalent of Ekiden for the track in Japan but EVERY year this country manages to send 3 qualifiers to global events. The only country that has been as consistent at sending the max number of 400h to global events over the last 20 years is the USA (and I think JAM; RSA also does a very good job, but not as good as JPN).

One other thing: Teenage finalist in Berlin, Jehue Gordon, isn't even on the formchart. He hasn't run bad races, but he hasn't run exciting ones this year either. He could spring a surprise.

...But Angelo Taylor will make history by winning the gold.

[Pelpa]

...well the stage is set for Greene to pull off one of those "the home crowd support counted for a lot" victories...but Culson will upset that possibility.

[croflash]

...well the stage is set for Greene to pull off one of those "the home crowd support counted for a lot" victories...but Culson will upset that possibility.

Surely someone else is also going to step up. I just can't imagine that the standard will continue to be as poor.

[Pelpa]

I think we are in for a multi-47.LOW showing

[Weights&Shoes]

^ I'm thinking only 2.

[preston]

With history as a guide...only one will and that's probably Taylor as he has the most basic speed. Even the athletes from the list who have run faster were one-timers right around/above the 47.50 mark. I seriously doubt 2 people will below; it's only happened in a few times: Dia Ba - Seoul, Carter - Helsinki, Schmid/Harris - Rome, Jackson - Indianapolis.

Top 22 all-time performers http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

46.78 Kevin Young USA Barcelona 6/8/1992
47.02 Edwin Moses USA Koblenz 31/08/1983
47.03 Bryan Bronson USA New Orleans, LA 21/06/1998
47.10 Samuel Matete ZAM Zürich (Letzigrund) 7/8/1991
47.19 Andre Phillips USA Seoul 25/09/1988
47.23 Amadou Dia Ba SEN Seoul 25/09/1988
47.24 Kerron Clement USA Carson, CA 26/06/2005
47.25 Felix Sánchez DOM Paris Saint-Denis 29/08/2003
47.25 Angelo Taylor USA Beijing (National Stadium) 18/08/2008
47.30 Bershawn Jackson USA Helsinki 9/8/2005
47.37 Stéphane Diagana FRA Lausanne 5/7/1995
47.38 Danny Harris USA Lausanne 10/7/1991
47.43 James Carter USA Helsinki 9/8/2005
47.48 Harald Schmid FRG Athína 8/9/1982
47.53 Hadi Soua'an Al-Somaily KSA Sydney 27/09/2000
47.54 Derrick Adkins USA Lausanne 5/7/1995
47.54 Fabrizio Mori ITA Edmonton 10/8/2001
47.60 Winthrop Graham JAM Zürich 4/8/1993
47.63 Johnny Dutch USA Des Moines, IA 26/06/2010
47.66 A L.J. van Zyl RSA Pretoria 25/02/2011
47.67 Bennie Brazell USA Sacramento, CA 11/6/2005
47.72 Javier Culson PUR Ponce 8/5/2010

[bearraccoon]

Anybody want to predict a winning time?
I say 47.9. This will not be a fast race. USA Oly Trials final
looked something like the Keystone Cops would run.
Kinda worrying about the weather as well.

[EPelle]

Olympic Record: 46,78 Kevin Young, USA, Barcelona 1992

2008 Results: G-Angelo Taylor, USA, 47,25; S-Kerron Clement, USA, 47,98; B-Bershawn Jackson, USA, 48,06
================================================================================

[Alan Shank]

Anybody want to predict a winning time?
I say 47.9. This will not be a fast race. USA Oly Trials final
looked something like the Keystone Cops would run.
Kinda worrying about the weather as well.

Unless it's raining, I think they will go considerably faster than that. There are too many guys with the ability to run 47.5 or faster. You never know what Kerron Clement is going to do; it's unlikely, but if he maintains his stride pattern, look out. Same with Angelo Taylor. Just another incredible lineup, if they all make it to the final.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[Weights&Shoes]

Anybody want to predict a winning time?
I say 47.9. This will not be a fast race. USA Oly Trials final
looked something like the Keystone Cops would run.
Kinda worrying about the weather as well.

Unless it's raining, I think they will go considerably faster than that. There are too many guys with the ability to run 47.5 or faster.

Same thought I had. Though, not "considerably fast", I think around 47.5 will win it.

[user4]

Hard to imagine that Culson, Tinsley, Clement and Greene are not going to go under 47.5 in the final.

[preston]

Tinsley won't make the final.

[DecFan]

Hard to imagine that Culson, Tinsley, Clement and Greene are not going to go under 47.5 in the final.

All of them? Actually that's not hard to imagine at all. But: Barring pouring rain, It's hard to imagine that at least one of Culson, Tinsley, Clement, Greene, and Taylor will not go under 47.5 in the final.

[Marlow]

Hard to imagine that Culson, Tinsley, Clement and Greene are not going to go under 47.5 in the final.

All of them? Actually that's not hard to imagine at all. But: Barring pouring rain, It's hard to imagine that at least one of Culson, Tinsley, Clement, Greene, and Taylor will not go under 47.5 in the final.

I can see Culson breaking 47.5 (not by much though), but will be VERY surprised if anyone else does (tho many are capable of it!).

[croflash]

Clement doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore, he hasn't been the same for a number of years now.

[Alan Shank]

Clement doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore, he hasn't been the same for a number of years now.

Well, he was in good position in the OT until he did his "mincing" at the last couple of hurdles, and still managed to squeak onto the team with 48.89. Another six weeks of training... Yes, it's been a long time since he put everything together for that 47.24, but he did win two world championships. I would not count him out. BTW, I doubt that he gives a flying %&^$*^%( whether any of us give him "the benefit of doubt" and pick him for a medal! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[j-a-m]

Well, he was in good position in the OT until he did his "mincing" at the last couple of hurdles, and still managed to squeak onto the team with 48.89. Another six weeks of training...

Yes, he also looked reasonably good during rounds in Eugene.

[croflash]

Clement doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt anymore, he hasn't been the same for a number of years now.

Well, he was in good position in the OT until he did his "mincing" at the last couple of hurdles, and still managed to squeak onto the team with 48.89. Another six weeks of training... Yes, it's been a long time since he put everything together for that 47.24, but he did win two world championships. I would not count him out. BTW, I doubt that he gives a flying %&^$*^%( whether any of us give him "the benefit of doubt" and pick him for a medal! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

He has always had those technical issues (well, not always as in every race he has ever competed in, but you get what I mean) and run a lot faster despite that. Which is why many have been rather frustrated watching him over the years, there seems or seemed to be more potential. With his natural flat speed presumably declining a bit, he would have to counter that with better technique, I'm just not convinced it will actually happen.

[TxHottrack]

Tinsley won't make the final.

Tinsley will finish 4th in the final. Angelo Taylor is going to win in the final.

[Alan Shank]

Well, he was in good position in the OT until he did his "mincing" at the last couple of hurdles, and still managed to squeak onto the team with 48.89. Another six weeks of training... Yes, it's been a long time since he put everything together for that 47.24, but he did win two world championships. I would not count him out. BTW, I doubt that he gives a flying %&^$*^%( whether any of us give him "the benefit of doubt" and pick him for a medal! >:-)
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

He has always had those technical issues (well, not always as in every race he has ever competed in, but you get what I mean) and run a lot faster despite that. Which is why many have been rather frustrated watching him over the years, there seems or seemed to be more potential. With his natural flat speed presumably declining a bit, he would have to counter that with better technique, I'm just not convinced it will actually happen.

Well, obviously his best races have been ones where he best maintained his steps after hurdle seven. Yes, he is frustrating; I'm sure his coach has torn his hair out multiple times watching Clement race. I'm not convinced it will happen, either, far from it, but I just think he has possibly the best upside, i.e. if everything comes together. Taylor, also, could come up big, but Culson and Greene are much more reliable, consistent.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[preston]

Tinsley won't make the final.

Tinsley will finish 4th in the final. Angelo Taylor is going to win in the final.

Will? I doubt that, but hey it's your opinion. My opinion is that he won't make the final. He won trials ONLY because Taylor screwed up and if Batman doesn't hit the hurdle he gets third. I guess we'll see in two days. One of us will be right and the other will be wrong. 50/50 odds, can't beat that?

Finalists: Culson, Greene, Green, Taylor, Fredericks, Van Zyl, Kishimoto, L. Green.

[Marlow]

Well, obviously his best races have been ones where he best maintained his steps after hurdle seven.

I was fortunate enough to have an extended conversation with his college (and post-collegiate for a while) coach who did indeed lose all his hair over it ( ). If KC is at 100% fitness, he can hold a stride pattern (13) that gets him mid-47. He hasn't been there in a long while, and he (apparently) has zero capability to adjust his strides to any other fast pace.

[Alan Shank]

Well, obviously his best races have been ones where he best maintained his steps after hurdle seven.

I was fortunate enough to have an extended conversation with his college (and post-collegiate for a while) coach who did indeed lose all his hair over it ( ). If KC is at 100% fitness, he can hold a stride pattern (13) that gets him mid-47. He hasn't been there in a long while, and he (apparently) has zero capability to adjust his strides to any other fast pace.

Didn't he try alternating for a while, cutting down to 14 after 8th or s.t. like that?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[Weights&Shoes]

Tinsley won't make the final.

And Clement isn't running 47.5

[Marlow]

Didn't he try alternating for a while, cutting down to 14 after 8th or s.t. like that?

According to Coach Holloway, KC can even high hurdle (well!) with a left lead, but can't force himself to take any 400 hurdle with a left lead.

[Alan Shank]

Tinsley won't make the final.

And Clement isn't running 47.5

I'm sure glad some of you already know the results! >:-) Why bother watching?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[Weights&Shoes]

Cute.

[ATK]

Hard to imagine that Culson, Tinsley, Clement and Greene are not going to go under 47.5 in the final.

All of them? Actually that's not hard to imagine at all. But: Barring pouring rain, It's hard to imagine that at least one of Culson, Tinsley, Clement, Greene, and Taylor will not go under 47.5 in the final.

I can see Culson breaking 47.5 (not by much though), but will be VERY surprised if anyone else does (tho many are capable of it!).

If Taylor went sub 47.5 why would you be surprised?