t_monk wrote:Krivoshopka must be thanking the sprint Gods for being inside SRR in this race. If I were her I would just run up on SRR and just maintain with her and then put on the hammer coming home to hold on to whatever lead that she would have accumulated by running up on her within the first 200 or so. If anyone can beat SRR based on SB's it would be her and all she needs to do is use lane 5 to her advantage...
SRR is the pick of this field. She has the best series of races leading up to the finals with the most conservative runs. This race truly is hers for the taking. Outside Krivoshopka running a 49.1x or below, if SRR finishes this race healthy and loses this... >_> She just needs to do what she has been doing for most of the season and she is good as golden. I think she'll be running near to 2009 WC time which would be round 49.00 flat.
Montsho will have SRR breathing down her neck the whole time and with the way SRR runs she will be pass Montsho or even with Montsho at the top of the backstretch. How Montsho reacts here will be important, she needs to try get away from SRR at this point and prays that SRR doesn't break her.
TBO.... In my opinion has the worse lane draw out of all the major contenders females in this field. She won't be seeing any of her major contenders and with her tendency to go out slow (even when she is going out fast) she still leaves a lot in the end. I think she has a far greater chance of repeating this mistake in lane 8 with no one to key off of except McCorory.
I like your analysis of these 4 athletes, and it seems kind of like a Domino effect with SRR being the last one to fall, aka winning.
Montsho will most likely go out hard like she usually does. SRR will go out with her until 100m, when she will relax. Like you said Montsho might respond down the back straight, which would be wrong because she will likely not have enough strength in the last 100.
Krivoshopka will probably still trail SRR by 100, but will most likely go right past her after that and probably go with or past Monsho, considering her hard prelim and semis run, she will almost certainly die. If she almost got run down by Trotter and NWM, she will easily get run down by Montsho, CO, and SRR.
CO will be way back, and she will probably be thinking about being patient, and may be overly patient, and way farther out of it than she would want. But she will be strong down the straight. I definitely down played her throughout the season, but I liked her comfortable semis run.
This leaves SRR, she will be behind at 200 to go but with 150 left she will be the strongest and most likely run everyone down since she didn't go out hard the first 200, and has the most energy saved through the rounds.
I think SRR-Monsho-CO will be the medals with Sanya setting an AR. but I think the silver and bronze are more wide open for anyone in the field.(except Whyte, who I don't think is in the class of the other 7 ladies).