¶2012 OG: w800–Mariya Savinova (Russia) 1:56.19 WL

[mump boy]

indoors.

Still slow it doesn't indicate running under 2mins for 800m http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_600ok.htm it

I don't know whey you're trying to make out she's someone we all should have been aware of before this year, this is her IAAF biography

http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographie ... index.html

[Vault-emort]

Precisely no form prior to this year? She ran a 1.28,83 600m in Omsk (2nd behind (Tutaeva's 1.28,28 and ahead of Kobeleva's 1.30,18). Tutaeva ran 1.59 last season. I don't know how many up-and-coming women run sub-1.30 600m races and aren't considered showing form.

I think it's fair enough to say she had no comparable form prior to this year. She hadn't broken 2 minutes for 800m until two months ago. But she certainly has shown form this year with a 5 second improvement over 800m and an 18 second improvement over 1500m.

[mump boy]

indoors. Manadou's race was outdoors.
http://www.runblogrun.com/2012/06/caste ... -eder.html

You've omitted the "I don't know how many up-and-coming women run sub-1.30 600m races and aren't considered showing form." part. At any rate, she's not a random Russian.

There is no record of her running anything at all last season and deffo not under 2.03.5. If you have the time or inclination to track runners below that level in the vain hope that they will improve 6 seconds in 1 year, then good on you !!

[Flumpy]

indoors.

Still slow it doesn't indicate running under 2mins for 800m http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_600ok.htm it

I don't know whey you're trying to make out she's someone we all should have been aware of before this year, this is her IAAF biography

http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/biographie ... index.html

Keep up mump. Don't tell me you haven't been staying of abreast of obscure Siberian 600m races???

Call yourself a fan

[mump boy]

Precisely no form prior to this year? She ran a 1.28,83 600m in Omsk (2nd behind (Tutaeva's 1.28,28 and ahead of Kobeleva's 1.30,18). Tutaeva ran 1.59 last season. I don't know how many up-and-coming women run sub-1.30 600m races and aren't considered showing form.

I think it's fair enough to say she had no comparable form prior to this year. She hadn't broken 2 minutes for 800m until two months ago. But she certainly has shown form this year with a 5 second improvement over 800m and an 18 second improvement over 1500m.

But she ran 1.28 indoors over 600m in Omsk, behind 2 other household names !! surely you didn't miss that result ?

[Vault-emort]

But she ran 1.28 indoors over 600m in Omsk, behind 2 other household names !! surely you didn't miss that result ?

I suspected it might have been wind-assisted

[mump boy]

But she ran 1.28 indoors over 600m in Omsk, behind 2 other household names !! surely you didn't miss that result ?

I suspected it might have been wind-assisted

there's deffo something dodgy about it, it's too special to be legit

[EPelle]

This is my final post, as your tag-teaming isn't keeping this on topic. I'm not pissing in the wind. I contended that she's not a random Russian. A 4.00 1.500m runner and 800m national champion (at the start time of the Olympic final) from any country isn't random. She ran a 1.28 600m in one of her first races in this sport. How many random UK 20-year-olds are doing that?

Exactly.

[Vault-emort]

There is no record of her running anything at all last season and deffo not under 2.03.5.

From tilastopaja, this is her 2011 record:

400 m
54.7h Yekaterinburg 10 Jun

800 m
2:06.0hi 1-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 16 Jan
2:03.94i 2 Sverdlovsk Ch Yekaterinburg 28 Jan
2:03.77i SB (45) 3h2 NC Moskva 16 Feb
2:05.47i 3-22 NC-j Volgograd 23 Feb
2:07.09i h-22 NC-j Volgograd 23 Feb
2:03.5h 1-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 29 May
2:02.2h SB (116) 1 Yekaterinburg 11 Jun
2:05.72 6-22 NC-j Yerino 25 Jun
2:02.64 1h1-22 NC-j Yerino 25 Jun
2:05.65 7h1 NC Cheboksary 21 Jul

1000 m
2:47.1hi SB (39) 1-19 Novozhilov Yekaterinburg 26 Dec

1500 m
4:21.4hi SB (103) 2-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 15 Jan
4:17.9h SB (311) 1-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 28 May

[mump boy]

This is my final post, as your tag-teaming isn't keeping this on topic. I'm not pissing in the wind. I contended that she's not a random Russian. A 4.00 1.500m runner and 800m national champion (at the start time of the Olympic final) from any country isn't random. She ran a 1.28 600m in one of her first races in this sport. How many random UK 20-year-olds are doing that?

Exactly.

All of this just proves Flumpy's point

i think you're misunderstanding his use of the word random

[mump boy]

There is no record of her running anything at all last season and deffo not under 2.03.5.

From tilastopaja, this is her 2011 record:

400 m
54.7h Yekaterinburg 10 Jun

800 m
2:06.0hi 1-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 16 Jan
2:03.94i 2 Sverdlovsk Ch Yekaterinburg 28 Jan
2:03.77i SB (45) 3h2 NC Moskva 16 Feb
2:05.47i 3-22 NC-j Volgograd 23 Feb
2:07.09i h-22 NC-j Volgograd 23 Feb
2:03.5h 1-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 29 May
2:02.2h SB (116) 1 Yekaterinburg 11 Jun
2:05.72 6-22 NC-j Yerino 25 Jun
2:02.64 1h1-22 NC-j Yerino 25 Jun
2:05.65 7h1 NC Cheboksary 21 Jul

1000 m
2:47.1hi SB (39) 1-19 Novozhilov Yekaterinburg 26 Dec

1500 m
4:21.4hi SB (103) 2-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 15 Jan
4:17.9h SB (311) 1-22 Ural Ch Chelyabinsk 28 May

i didn't think to look up hand timed races !!

[Master Po]

If I have her splits right, they are 56.31, 61.62. I know the 800 is more complicated, but (assuming I can to math), that's a 9.4% deterioration in the second 400. Seems like a lot, for seeking optimal performance. She's fast, she's strong, she's smart, she's experienced, & I still wonder if she would need to run a less aggressive opening in order to get under 1:57. I watched her PB (Monaco 1020, 1:57.34). Can't tell her 400 split, but the rabbit went in 56.09; Montano a few strides behind & also comfortably clear of the field. Rabbit led her to 600, & Montano ran it in well ahead of the others. She looked comfortable (I get it was a one-off race -- but it looked more evenly paced). Wish I knew her splits. In any case, she's an outstanding runner, & I'm proud to have her wearing USA in these meets. But I would love to hear her discuss her ideas about her racing.

This may all be true but i would still question the wisdom of running the same tactics in heats, 55.55 is a ridiculous waste of energy when other people are qualifying having jogged 68 !!

I agree w you -- I am trying in a respectful way to give Montano what I think is her deserved credit for her talent and championship finishes, but also I wanted to pose the questions I have about her approach to racing. I think the 55.55 opener in an opening heat in which it did not seem quite necessary would seem to cost her something. The next fastest opening 400s in the heats were 58.71 & 59.21, with others as slow as 1:08, as you pointed out. As I noted above -- I would love to hear her discuss her own understanding of her approach to racing. In my (uneducated) view, it both gets her outstanding results, and thwarts her aims at getting slightly better results (i.e., on the medal stand). But, as many many others have pointed out to me, What do I know?

[donley2]

This is my final post, as your tag-teaming isn't keeping this on topic. I'm not pissing in the wind. I contended that she's not a random Russian. A 4.00 1.500m runner and 800m national champion (at the start time of the Olympic final) from any country isn't random. She ran a 1.28 600m in one of her first races in this sport. How many random UK 20-year-olds are doing that?

Exactly.

You can argue all you want about whether the word "random" is correct or not, but one thing I know for sure is the number of people on the planet that keep up with the kind of stuff (600 meter times) you are discussing is bound to be less than 100. Would "out of the blue" suit the situation better? Does the Turkish girl that finished 2nd in the 1500 have a long history? If they are not in the same category it is certainly close.

[Master Po]

A further comment on Savinova: I know that interpreting 400m times in this event is shaky, but in this final, 6 of the athletes have 400m PBs listed (Jepkosgei, Niyonsaba don't). For those others, all PB's in the lower part of 54.xx; Savinova's -- from this year -- is 51.43. That's a big difference. I also read some interview comments from her (not from this meet) & she said she likes to run an "even pace." I know no championship 800 is precisely even, but Savinova's speed, combined with her commitment to running relatively even splits, as she describes, seems very hard to beat, as she has shown in recent championships. Would love to see some detailed analysis of her championship runs.

Too late now. Maybe tomorrow. I can tell you off the top of my head she is near the rear for the first 2-300 meters both London and Daegu.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

Definitely would be interested in your followup on Savinova. (Note that in the post from me you quote I have a typo re the other athletes' 400m times -- I corrected it later in my original post, but it's here -- their times are in the lower half of 52.xx, not 54.xx.)

ePelle, in a post above, estimated Savinova's opening @ 57.29. If that's is accurate, then she ran something like 57.29 & 58.90, a 2.8% differential (assuming my math is right). Someone else can analyze the various 200m split permutations, which are more revealing, but just looking at 400-400 for now, these splits which might seem conservative if you're trying to run a PB or a record, seem ideal if you're in a championship and you know from experience and study of your competitors that someone (e.g., Montano, Jepkosgei) will for sure take the first 400m out hard because they pretty much always do and someone (e.g., Jelimo, maybe Semenya) may try to charge the 3rd 200. And so it seems that Savinova doesn't just have confidence in herself (among the fastest PB at 800, and definitely the fastest at 400), she has confidence that -- even if the names change from championship to championship -- some variety of these tactics will likely play out in this way almost every time, and she will see ahead of her in the last 200 a group of very fast runners now very tired and slowing dramatically, and if she's got a 29.xx in her, she will be flying by whoever else has already run into a major deficit and is now trying desperately to run a 32.xx or something like that. Savinova's strategies seem to answer this question: In a fast 800, would you rather be the rabbit or have 4-5 rabbits?

[EPelle]

Would "out of the blue" suit the situation better?

Not given the context, "What was Pamela doing???? Just dawdles over the line and gets taken by randon Russian." Firstly, the 'randon' [sic] Russian earned the right to be there by virtue of making it through the rounds. Secondly, she had earned credentials this season -- prior to the Games.

I wasn't attempting to be right. I have nothing at stake here. However, calling her a random Russian isn't an accurate portrayal of her credentials. It appears, through that commentary, as though Jelimo simply strolled across the line and allowed some unknown/undeserving person to overtake her. This is not correct.

[mump boy]

If I have her splits right, they are 56.31, 61.62. I know the 800 is more complicated, but (assuming I can to math), that's a 9.4% deterioration in the second 400. Seems like a lot, for seeking optimal performance. She's fast, she's strong, she's smart, she's experienced, & I still wonder if she would need to run a less aggressive opening in order to get under 1:57. I watched her PB (Monaco 1020, 1:57.34). Can't tell her 400 split, but the rabbit went in 56.09; Montano a few strides behind & also comfortably clear of the field. Rabbit led her to 600, & Montano ran it in well ahead of the others. She looked comfortable (I get it was a one-off race -- but it looked more evenly paced). Wish I knew her splits. In any case, she's an outstanding runner, & I'm proud to have her wearing USA in these meets. But I would love to hear her discuss her ideas about her racing.

This may all be true but i would still question the wisdom of running the same tactics in heats, 55.55 is a ridiculous waste of energy when other people are qualifying having jogged 68 !!

I agree w you -- I am trying in a respectful way to give Montano what I think is her deserved credit for her talent and championship finishes, but also I wanted to pose the questions I have about her approach to racing. I think the 55.55 opener in an opening heat in which it did not seem quite necessary would seem to cost her something. The next fastest opening 400s in the heats were 58.71 & 59.21, with others as slow as 1:08, as you pointed out. As I noted above -- I would love to hear her discuss her own understanding of her approach to racing. In my (uneducated) view, it both gets her outstanding results, and thwarts her aims at getting slightly better results (i.e., on the medal stand). But, as many many others have pointed out to me, What do I know?

You may not know anything but for what it's worth i agree with you. Let's be ignorant (and correct) together

[EPelle]

Master Po, it's my belief that it's more than taking a 400m out hard. It's about the four consecutive 200m splits within the race.

As far as middle 400m splits: Osaka 2007 had Jepkosgei at 59,7; Benhassi at 58,9; Martinez at 59,2 in a 1.56,04 race -- 0,15s faster than the London 2012 final. Beijing 2008 had Jelimo at 57,72; Jepkosgei at 58,7; Benhassi at 58,7 in a 1.54 race. Jelimo was able to maintain a 1.55 middle-split pace during the middle of the race despite dying to a 30,84 in the final segment.

Jepkosgei was able to run under 30,00 (29,7) in her 1.56,04 final, but not in the 2008 Olympics (31,7). This is primarily because she ran a second faster during the middle of the Beijing race than she did the previous year despite having a "rabbit" in front of her. Benhassi maintained about the same (58,9 to 58,7), and ran 1.56,73 in Beijing to a 1.56,99.

Savinova's (highly unofficial) splits from her Daegu 1.55,87 were 27,3 at the 200m, 1.25,8 at 600m (58,5/1.57,0 pace). She ran approximately 30,0 her final 200m. Savinova conserved as much energy as possible in the middle of her race (despite moving considerably up in position) whilst Semenya had gone harder. Semenya as the race unfolded, had nothing left for Savinova's 'kick' -- which wasn't entirely fast.

I believe Savinova ran the right tactics in London -- stay on course with her intended time through 200m; maintain her pace for a full lap through the middle of the race; this conservation and even pacing allows for a better kick...she's neither over-indulged in early pacing nor too far behind when it comes to playing 'catch-up'. Perfect reserves in tact. That's what I've noticed.

[Alan Shank]

and every year there are 3 more women running 1:57 in Russia and then flopping at the champs. Savinova is the only one in recent times that has actually produced the good when it matters. It's impossible to keep up with the other randoms who come out of nowhere before disappearing again.
Poistogova stepped up and got a medal, maybe we'll have to remember her name for the future. Maybe not.

Let's see:
2003 Khrushchelyova - bronze medal
2004, 2005 Andrianova 5th, bronze medal
2005 Cherkasova, 7th
2007 Lotlyarova 4th, Klyuka 7th
2008 Andrianova again, just 8th
2011 Kostetskaya 5th, Rusanova 8th, in addition, of course to SAvinova

Kostetskaya missed the team in the 800 this year, but qualified in the 1500 and made the final, finishing 9th.

Your vague recollections are pretty vague.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[Master Po]

Master Po, it's my belief that it's more than taking a 400m out hard. It's about the four consecutive 200m splits within the race.

As far as middle 400m splits: Osaka 2007 had Jepkosgei at 59,7; Benhassi at 58,9; Martinez at 59,2 in a 1.56,04 race -- 0,15s faster than the London 2012 final. Beijing 2008 had Jelimo at 57,72; Jepkosgei at 58,7; Benhassi at 58,7 in a 1.54 race. Jelimo was able to maintain a 1.55 middle-split pace during the middle of the race despite dying to a 30,84 in the final segment.

Jepkosgei was able to run under 30,00 (29,7) in her 1.56,04 final, but not in the 2008 Olympics (31,7). This is primarily because she ran a second faster during the middle of the Beijing race than she did the previous year despite having a "rabbit" in front of her. Benhassi maintained about the same (58,9 to 58,7), and ran 1.56,73 in Beijing to a 1.56,99.

Savinova's (highly unofficial) splits from her Daegu 1.55,87 were 27,3 at the 200m, 1.25,8 at 600m (58,5/1.57,0 pace). She ran approximately 30,0 her final 200m. Savinova conserved as much energy as possible in the middle of her race (despite moving considerably up in position) whilst Semenya had gone harder. Semenya as the race unfolded, had nothing left for Savinova's 'kick' -- which wasn't entirely fast.

I believe Savinova ran the right tactics in London -- stay on course with her intended time through 200m; maintain her pace for a full lap through the middle of the race; this conservation and even pacing allows for a better kick...she's neither over-indulged in early pacing nor too far behind when it comes to playing 'catch-up'. Perfect reserves in tact. That's what I've noticed.

Thanks for sharing this analysis. I agree w you. Definitely wasn't trying to argue that the 400-400 analysis answers the questions -- that was simply at hand. I believe that the level of analysis you have gets at the deeper and most important dynamics of the race -- and confirms that Savinoa seems really to know what she's doing, in relation to her own capacities and those of her competitors. One of the things that makes the 800 so interesting is the finding difficult balance between over- and under-indulgence, as you put it. And the 800 reveals in particularly stark fashion the consequences of getting this wrong by just a bit.

[pakillo]

and every year there are 3 more women running 1:57 in Russia and then flopping at the champs. Savinova is the only one in recent times that has actually produced the good when it matters. It's impossible to keep up with the other randoms who come out of nowhere before disappearing again.
Poistogova stepped up and got a medal, maybe we'll have to remember her name for the future. Maybe not.

Let's see:
2003 Khrushchelyova - bronze medal
2004, 2005 Andrianova 5th, bronze medal
2005 Cherkasova, 7th
2007 Lotlyarova 4th, Klyuka 7th
2008 Andrianova again, just 8th
2011 Kostetskaya 5th, Rusanova 8th, in addition, of course to SAvinova

Kostetskaya missed the team in the 800 this year, but qualified in the 1500 and made the final, finishing 9th.

Your vague recollections are pretty vague.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I'll second that Alan Shank.
Some people seem to really struggle with Russian names and faces. When it's hard to make the team it's easy to "disappear" but those who are not at highest level every year are there and often run at small meetings across Europe. Same with Kenyans...

[Alan Shank]

SAvinova's global outdoor races
-------------------------------------

Berlin, 2009 (per Track Newsletter split)
200 27.4 (in 6th or 7th)
400 57.6 (30.2) (in 5th -- Semenya had taken the lead by then
600 1:27.7 (30.1) (in 5th)
800 1:58.7 (31.0) (5th) (she passed Marilyn Okoro, who really faded, but was passed by Jenny Meadows, who ran 29.9, 15.0 for last 200, 100)

Barcelona, 2010 (Euros)
No exact splits, but Meadows led in 59.2, 1:29.2, with SAvinova following. SAvinova took the lead entering the straight and finished in 1:58.22, so running roughly 29.0 for last 200. Yvonne Hak finished 2nd in 1:58.85, Meadows 3rd in 1:59.39. (Savinova had broken through at Pre with 1:57.56.)

Daegu, 2011
200 28.1 (equal 7th with teammate Rusanova, as Jepkosgei, Sinclair and Montano led with 26.6, 26.8, and 27.1)
400 57.2 (29.1) (6th, ahead of Vessey and Rusanova, with Jepkosgei, Sinclair and Montano at 55.9, 56.0, 56.1)
600 1:26.5 (29.3) (4th, having passed the fading Montano, with Jepkosgei still leading at 1:26.1 from Semenya, 1:26.2 and Sinclair, 1:26.3)
700 1:41.2 =2nd with Jepkosgei, with Semenya at 1:41.0
800 1:55.87 (29.4, 14.7) 1st by .48 from Semenya (15.4).
Sinclair ran 16.9, Jepkosgei 16.2 and Montano 15.8 for last 100s.

London, 2012
Don't have the TN with all the splits yet (come on, you guys!!! >:-), but EPelle has given SAvinova's splits as
28.2, 57.3 (29.1), 1:26.3 (29.0) and 1:56.2 (29.9)

Anyway, after Berlin her pattern is pretty clear: first 200 a second or so faster than average, then pretty even splits the rest of the way. Given the way the other runners go, it appears that she starts slowly and picks up the pace later, but it's an illusion. She did negatively split in Barcelona (barely), but that was a slow early race pace. She just slows down less than the other runners.

Really, SAvinova, BorzakOvskiy and Nick Symmonds run similar tactics, but SAvinova is just the best female 800 runner, and Borza and Symmonds are not the best male ones.

I think SAvinova had more in the tank, BTW, and we might see a 1:55-low or better in one of the upcoming DL races.

Personally, I don't take seriously the notion that Jelimo didn't try to win, or Semenya, for that matter.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

[EPelle]

Cheers, Alan. Thanks for the correct splits.

[uakari]

and what do the illustres in this board think happened to jepkosgei or niyonsaba?

[telf]

uakari » Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:19 pm
and what do the illustres in this board think happened to jepkosgei or niyonsaba?

Injuries over the last two years have diminished Jepkosgei and I think it might be over for her as a medal winning competitor.

Suspect a few 1:58s down the field at the DL is all that awaits her.

I think 7th in the final is as good as Niyonsaba is at the moment.

A national record in semi and a good run in the final and perhaps 1:57s in the upcoming post Olympic meets.

At 19 there should be more to come for her in the years ahead.

[Alan Shank]

and what do the illustres in this board think happened to jepkosgei or niyonsaba?

They finished 7th and 8th! >:-)
Have to watch this race over and over. As I recall, Jepkosgei was right up there with Montano at 200, 400. She ran 1:57.79 in Hengelo at the end of May, and I thought, "OK, she's getting ready to run 1:56", but she didn't run particularly well after that, her best being in the semi in London, 1:58.26, when she and Montano got in as the "fastest losers", as they say.

Jepkosgei ran her best in Osaka, dominated the races and won, then along came Jelimo, then along came Semenya, then along came SAvinova. But she's got a global-championship gold medal. Same with Tyson Gay -- he's got three of them from 2007, then along came Bolt, then along came Blake.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

[Master Po]

and what do the illustres in this board think happened to jepkosgei or niyonsaba?

Thanks, Alan -- and thanks ePelle for previous analysis. As for uakari's question -- my wattage is more dimwit than illustre -- so my real answer is "Who knows?" but here's a guess.

Re Jepkosgei -- she is not simply the oldest in this finalist field (in that respect, only a year older than Savinova), but by far the oldest in terms of her career. She has been racing in int'l championships since 1999 (15yo), and has been in some int'l championship 11 of those 14 seasons, including this year. She has the longest streak of years @ sub-2:00 in this finalist field, from 2005-2012 (actually it's sub-1:58 for her). She is also furthest away from her outstanding PB. I just saw her as being a bit on the downside of a fantastic 800m career, and so perhaps not as strong in the final as the others who are both younger in years and younger in career. She was in the fastest semi, earned a q (not Q) and looked to me to have had to run hard for it -- she had the 3rd fastest of the semi times. I just thought -- she doesn't have that much more to give. (And of course, all that is a guess.)

Re Niyonsaba -- she is/was more an unknown quantity than Jelimo was in 08 or Semenya was in 09. Fewer races -- so, again, who knows? I wondered if she was going to be first-year dominant like them, or at the back of the field. Not being as fast coming in, with much less experience, and just not looking as robust as either of them, I also thought -- she's already had the longest and hardest athletics season of her life (well, almost the only one); I think this was her first 3-round championship, & she ran a PB in the semi (only of the finalists) -- so I thought same as for Jepkosgei -- but for contrasting reasons -- she doesn't have that much more to give. (Ditto the guesswork.)

[vencio2]

and every year there are 3 more women running 1:57 in Russia and then flopping at the champs. Savinova is the only one in recent times that has actually produced the good when it matters. It's impossible to keep up with the other randoms who come out of nowhere before disappearing again.
Poistogova stepped up and got a medal, maybe we'll have to remember her name for the future. Maybe not.

Let's see:
2003 Khrushchelyova - bronze medal
2004, 2005 Andrianova 5th, bronze medal
2005 Cherkasova, 7th
2007 Lotlyarova 4th, Klyuka 7th
2008 Andrianova again, just 8th
2011 Kostetskaya 5th, Rusanova 8th, in addition, of course to SAvinova

Kostetskaya missed the team in the 800 this year, but qualified in the 1500 and made the final, finishing 9th.

Your vague recollections are pretty vague.
Cheers,
Alan Shank

I think you're facts above prove Flumpy's point. Apart from one or two stand-outs, I can see a litany of last and second-to-last places in that list from 2005 onwards.

What is also missing from the list is:

2000: Tsyganova and Raspopova both 1:56 performers earlier that year eliminated in heats, Mistyukevich eliminated in sf
2001: Mistyukevich and Tsyganova both 1:157-1:58 performers that year eliminated in heats, Cherkasova the fastest Russian that year at 1:57 eliminated in sf
2002: Cherkasova, Raspopova and Mistyukevich eliminated in heats or sf (and this is the only the Euro's!)
2003: Yevdokimova and Klyuka both 1:58 performers that year eliminated in sf
2004: Cherkasova eliminated in sf, Khrushcheleva a 1:56 performer earlier that year also eliminated in sf

[EPelle]

The eliminations are meaningless in this context. The aforementioned Russians who qualified and finished the finals weren't 'randon' (or any version thereof). They were qualified finalists. A true fan takes stock of the eight women contesting the race. Unless he's simply interested in the medal placings. If that's the case, everyone save the three anticipated medal spots become meaningless also-rans who really shouldn't have lined up. The Olympics have a magical way of bringing a surprise finalist into a medal position. To consider any of eight finalists a random athlete is pathetic.

[vencio2]

random is the new journeyman....

[pakillo]

this is what this sport is about- you never know if athlete will repeat their previous performance.

[Marlow]

Semenya is being criticized (home page link) for tanking the final (ostensibly for not having to be in the spotlight again). She'll never be accepted at face-value and that truly is sad, no matter what side of the 'should-she-be-allowed-to-race?' debate.

She finished no differently than Borza used to when he'd drive me crazy by launching his irresistible kick a second too late. CS denies the accusation, but deep down in my pop-psychology mind, I do wonder whether her sub-conscious mind urged her to delay the kick just long enough to avoid another humiliating round under public scrutiny.

[nevetsllim]

Re Jepkosgei -- she is not simply the oldest in this finalist field (in that respect, only a year older than Savinova), but by far the oldest in terms of her career. She has been racing in int'l championships since 1999 (15yo), and has been in some int'l championship 11 of those 14 seasons, including this year. She has the longest streak of years @ sub-2:00 in this finalist field, from 2005-2012 (actually it's sub-1:58 for her). She is also furthest away from her outstanding PB. I just saw her as being a bit on the downside of a fantastic 800m career, and so perhaps not as strong in the final as the others who are both younger in years and younger in career. She was in the fastest semi, earned a q (not Q) and looked to me to have had to run hard for it -- she had the 3rd fastest of the semi times. I just thought -- she doesn't have that much more to give. (And of course, all that is a guess.)

I think Jepkosgei either mistimed her peak or was injured mid-season. She ran 1:57 in May which is the fastest she's been so early in the year (apart from 2006 when she won the Commonwealths in 1:57 in late March) and I thought she was going to have a good season because rarely opens her season with anything fast than two-flat. She only squeezed through at the Kenyan Trials and raced once before London and only broke 2mins once (in the SF).

Can I also say Savinova was stupidly undervalued at 5/1 on bet365, even before the final?!

[EPelle]

Marlow, that's not out of the question. I posit, however, that Semenya, as in Daegu, ran out of gas. I've timed her 200m-600m split (wildly inaccurately, mind you, as I timed it from the same start/stop points at the 200m line on the DVR replay).

Based on that unofficial data, Semenya ran approximately 29,7/59,3 (29,6)[1.58,6 pace] during the middle of her race. She'd run 1.57,67 in her semi - her fastest time of 2012 to that point. One minute 58 seconds is approximately what she's been consistent at on the circuit the past two seasons -- this season with no sub-2.00 times prior to London. Astonishingly enough, her semifinal time of 1.57,67 was only the fifth career sub-1.58. I believe she ran within herself (that consistent 1.58 pace), kicked, and finished with the best she has at the moment. She let Savinova pass her near the 220m mark, assumed her position behind her, and fell further adrift as the others injected a faster pace until she reached the bell. She had a good finish, but she'd not run any harder through any part of her races in any other meet this season. Her legs couldn't respond.

Similarly as noted above, Jepkosgei, in 2008, wasn't able to close as fast in Beijing as in Osaka. This is primarily because she ran a second faster during the middle of the Beijing race than she did the previous year. Semenya wasn't tested this way prior to London. It didn't suit her to have missed out on that trial.

[mump boy]

Why is no one accusing Jelimo of throwing the race as well ?:

She has a faster PB a faster SB and came behind Semenya as well. A clear cut case of being afraid to win

But seriously it is so disrepectful to Savinova to pretend that Semenya was in any kind of shap to beat her, was anyone actually expectibng her to win ? i didn't even have her down to medal until Magisto pulled out

[Master Po]

to avoid another humiliating round under public scrutiny.

Good comment, Marlow. One thing that comes to mind in light of your apt description of her circumstances in relation to the sport media that follows her is that -- from this point on -- all public scrutiny of her is likely to be in the humiliating mode, always. I haven't a clue about her psyche, but I'm guessing she knows this. If she really runs a great time and wins, or if she supposedly "tanks" and gets a silver medal. And though my opinions about her are conflicted, I feel bad for her in that regard. She will never been simply lauded or criticized in the ways that other athletes are -- those ways are themselves often unfair, but Semenya has this to face for the rest of her career.

That noted, I agree w ePelle's analysis of the race, and also have in mind Daegu, where iirc Semenya went a bit earlier and Savinova ran her down. The problem they all face is how to beat Savinova, who as of now (i.e., recent bests) is the fastest in the group at 800, and the fastest at 400, and tactically the smartest, it seems. The head-to-head competition records of these athletes show this. Prior to the London final:

Savinova 1 -- Jelimo 1
They never met in Jelimo's greatest year. Savinova's win was Pre 2010; Jelimo's Rome 2012.

Savinova 7 -- Jepkosgei 3
Jepkosgei beat her in Berlin 2009, and two Euro meets in 2010.

Savinova 5 -- Semenya 1
Semenya beat her in Berlin 2009.

Savinova 6 -- Montano 0

(Also, prior to OG final, Savinova 2-0 v. Poistogova; 1-0 v. Arzhakova; never raced Niyonsaba.)

Savinova thus has a very impressive W-L against these other finalists. And though we can of course point out that she didn't face Jelimo 2008, Jepkosgei 2007-2008, and only faced Semenya once in 2009 the fact of head-to-head competition in the "Savinova era" is that she has figured out how to beat the best of her competition, whilst only one of them has beat her recently.

All sorts of things happen in a year in an event, and we are by now accustomed to seeing new and impressive talent pop up in one year, ready to impress, if not dominate this event, but it is not inconceivable that several of these finalists could be on the starting line for the WC final next year. And, assuming Savinova is healthy and motivated -- and I imagine that a WC gold in Moscow would be very very important to her -- the questions will be the same next year for any of these athletes that make the final against her, should they all get to that point.