OG Winning Marks?

[Marlow]

I predict

Men

100 9.72
200 19.44
400 44.30
800 1:41.5
1500 3:31.3
3St 8:00
5 12:54
10 26:50
110H 12.95
400H 47.77
Mar 2:05
20W WK
50W WK
4x1 37.00
4x4 2:57.5
HJ 2.37
PV 5.90
LJ 8.35
TJ 17.80
SP 22.00
DT 68.50
HT 81.00
JT 87.50
Dec 9000

Women

100 10.80
200 21.85
400 49.20
800 1:57
1500 4:00
3St 9:11
5 14:40
10 30:00
100H 12.43
400H 52.80
Mar 2:20
20W WK
4x1 41.52
4x4 3:18.20
HJ 2.05
PV 4.85
LJ 7.10
TJ 14.88
SP 21.00
DT 68.00
HT 78.00
JT 67.50
Hep 7000!

[aaronk]

First thing that came to mind was YOUR response to MY predictions for Trials winning marks!!
You wrote:
"I am....skeptical....of the marks you posted."

In EVERY distance (or mid-distance) event, men and women, you predicted SLOWER times for the Trials than me.
Most of our other predictions were dissimilar too, but I'll focus here on the 800-10K.

Why were you "skeptical" of MY predicted times.....if YOURS are way faster than what "normally' happens in these races??

Meaning, that you and others have said that Championship (OG, WC, etc) races are normally strategic, and thus slower than DL paced races!!

BTW, I'll come up with MY predicted winning marks soon!!

[TN1965]

Shalane will tell you that the marathon course has too many turns to produce a fast time. So I don't expect 2:05. 2:20 for women is possible, since Kiplagat and Keitany are planning to go at 2:17 pace. (I wonder how long they could sustain that.)

30:00 for women's 10K is almost an OR. Dibaba was in the best shape of her life 4 years ago. She is just coming back into her form after long absense. I don't expect anything close this time. I am just hoping she runs good enough to win.

Just a thought...

[Marlow]

First thing that came to mind was YOUR response to MY predictions for Trials winning marks!!
You wrote:
"I am....skeptical....of the marks you posted."
In EVERY distance (or mid-distance) event, men and women, you predicted SLOWER times for the Trials than me.
Most of our other predictions were dissimilar too, but I'll focus here on the 800-10K.
Why were you "skeptical" of MY predicted times.....if YOURS are way faster than what "normally' happens in these races??
Meaning, that you and others have said that Championship (OG, WC, etc) races are normally strategic, and thus slower than DL paced races!!
BTW, I'll come up with MY predicted winning marks soon!!

I admit to NOTHING!

[Jseven1]

9,000 prediction fr Dec may not be enough. In the past two weeks Eaton has improved hs three throws by 154 points over his WR in June.

[Tuariki]

9,000 prediction fr Dec may not be enough. In the past two weeks Eaton has improved hs three throws by 154 points over his WR in June.

If it is not raining then 9200 for Eaton

[gh]

and his support from the crowd relative to Eugene will be a small fraction thereof.

[k3ck3c]

I doubt that the winner of the Pole Vault will clear "only" 5.90

Otto has cleared 3 times 5.92, Mohr has cleared 5.91, Walker 5.90 (with a huge margin), Lavillenie has cleared 5.92, 5.93, 5.95, 5.97
to name a few.

[LopenUupunut]

Men

100 9.76
200 19.41
400 44.50
800 1:42.98
1500 3:34.36
3St 8:08.04
5 13:16.92
10 27:07.73
110H 12.92
400H 47.61
Mar 2:07:19
20W 1:20:15
50W 3:39:55
4x1 37.17
4x4 2:57.46
HJ 2.36
PV 5.90
LJ 8.34
TJ 17.86
SP 22.14
DT 68.29
HT 80.87
JT 86.35
Dec 8929

Women

100 10.74
200 21.86
400 49.38
800 1:55.90
1500 4:02.11
3St 9:06.64
5 14:52.77
10 30:35.40
100H 12.46
400H 52.81
Mar 2:22:22
20W 1:27.46
4x1 41.66
4x4 3:17.99
HJ 2.03
PV 4.85
LJ 7.07
TJ 14.90
SP 21.26
DT 67.61
HT 78.15
JT 69.24
Hep 6881

I'm a bit worried about predicting better winning marks than Marlow in some events...

[nianchengyu]

W:
400mH:53.22s
SP:21.68m
DT:70.37m
hep:6933p

[tgs3]

Dec 8929
Hep 6881

More realistic multi event scores than I've seen from others. I think people are expecting too much out of Eaton in particular. The OR and winning the gold by 200 points or so would be a very successful Olympics for him.

[jlt]

Shalane will tell you that the marathon course has too many turns to produce a fast time. So I don't expect 2:05. 2:20 for women is possible, since Kiplagat and Keitany are planning to go at 2:17 pace. (I wonder how long they could sustain that.)

30:00 for women's 10K is almost an OR. Dibaba was in the best shape of her life 4 years ago. She is just coming back into her form after long absense. I don't expect anything close this time. I am just hoping she runs good enough to win.

Just a thought...

Sounds just like Ryan Hall thinking in Beijing that it was too hot to run fast and that they'd fade big-time in the second half. Flanagan might think too many turns to run fast but I doubt Keitany and Edna will worry about that. My tip is that the Kenyans run great and the Americans too conservative....

[Jseven1]

Dan O'Brien among others have questioned Eaton how he'll do away from home in Eugene. In the sat 3 years he's broken the heptathlon record 3 times: in Arkansas, in Tallinn, in Istanbul. Those 3 places are a long way from Hayward Field.

[aaronk]

Jeez, these are even nuttier than my Trials winning marks!!
But hell, that's what makes following the Games fun, fun, fun!!!
For what it's worth.......(WR indicates a World Record, OR an Olympics Record):
Finals only!! If a better mark occurs in the heats, semis, Q's, doesn't count in predictions!!

Men

100..........9.64 OR
200..........19.15 WR, OR
400..........44.08
800..........1:41.39 OR
1500........3:30.88 OR
5K...........12:50.26 OR
10K.........26:52.00 OR
Mar.........2:04:50 OR
SC..........7:58.05 OR
110H.......12.90 OR
400H.......47.40
HJ..........7-9 3/4 (Sorry, using English measurements here!!)
LJ..........27-7 1/2
TJ..........58-7
PV..........19-6 1/4
SP......... 72-9 1/2
DT.........229-2
JT.........290-10
HT........271-6
Dec.......9210 WR, OR
400R.....36.85 WR, OR
1600R....2:58.11

Women

100........10.64
200........21.60
400........48.72
800........1:55.35
1500......3:59.01
5K.........14:25.11 OR
10K.......29:48.00 OR
Mar.......2:18:40 OR
SC........8:56.24 WR, OR
100H.....12.31
400H.....52.80
HJ........6-9 1/2 OR
LJ........23-5 3/4
TJ.......49-6
PV.......16-4 3/4
SP.......69-10
DT......226-9
JT......231-8
HT.....262-10 WR, OR
Hept...7080
400R....41.56 OR
1600R...3:17.35

[Jseven1]

I have to say that I do not find your prediction for Eaton to be ridiculous. 9210 is basically his WR from June plus the 154 improvement points in the throws from ten days or so ago. Remember his WR was in horrible weather (I was drenched). He left a lot of points on the table in the HJ, 400 and hurdles. If he doesn't jump 27 feet in the LJ this time he can pick it up in the hurdles. The PV is probably the key event.

[Powell]

Sounds just like Ryan Hall thinking in Beijing that it was too hot to run fast and that they'd fade big-time in the second half.

But they did. Even Wanjiru and Gharib ran the second half significantly slower than the first. Everyone else in that top group faded badly. The midway split was 1:02 and change, and in the end, 2:10:00 won bronze. It was perfectly possible for someone who started more conservatively behind the leading group to come through for a medal if they maintained their pace.