Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

[jazzcyclist]

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

[NotSoOrdinary]

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

Sure she did. AF 48.0 > Flojo 48.1

For multiple reasons.

[jjimbojames]

AF still ran slower than others though - or do you mean fastest American split?

[NotSoOrdinary]

AF still ran slower than others though - or do you mean fastest American split?

American.

[DJG]

The "other relay" is my main concern, but let me say that
the Russian 4x4 teams I have watched over the years manage
to under-perform when it counts the most.
I expect they will run the fastest qualifying time in the prelims,
only to come in third or fourth in the final.
The US will win this easily...I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we
respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.
So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.


The US women win by 25 m or more.

[EPelle]

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

Fastest world championships split. Ever.

[jazzcyclist]

I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I mentioned in an earlier post why I thought it was a bad idea to put Sanya on scratch leg instead of McCrory. I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.

This is a science thing, not an opinion thing. Do you believe in physics?

So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.

I believe gh was talking about the tendency of trailing runners to run on the shoulder of the leading runner through the turn, to the outside of lane one instead of up against the rail.

[iain]

The Russians didn't underperform in Beijing.
Pre Olympic Times:
2008
USA - 49.74, 49.83, 50.32, 50.80
RUS - 50.02, 50.12, 50.25, 50.51
2012
USA - 49.28, 50.02, 50.06, 50.50
RUS - 49.16, 49.28, 49.72, 50.00

USA = -0.83
RUS = -2.74

From 08 times:
USA - 3:17.71
RUS - 3:16.08

[gennady]

I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?

But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

I have already said in one of the posts, Sanya and Allyson great athletes, fighters.
I am to them with great respect.
But look at the schedule for their participation in the Olympics.

Felix: 100heats; 24 hours; 100S/Fin; 48 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 24 hours 4х100heats; 24 hours; 4х100Fin; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

Ross: 400heats; 24 hours; 400S; 24 hours; 400Fin; 24 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 48 hours; 4х400heats?; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

They are great, but not "iron machines".
Require or rely on their high splits in the 4x400 is not correct and not real.

[DJG]

I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I think that's a bad idea for reason that I mentioned earlier.
I mentioned in an earlier post why I thought it was a bad idea to put Sanya on scratch leg instead of McCrory. I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.

This is a science thing, not an opinion thing. Do you believe in physics?

So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.

I believe gh was talking about the tendency of trailing runners to run on the shoulder of the leading runner through the turn, to the outside of lane one instead of up against the rail.

Sure physics is a fine thing...I recall reading that according to physics divers should not be capable of doing some of the moves in their dives that they do.
As for any infinitissimal positive effect a runner may get from basically running in the other runner's shorts, that is negated by the elbow to his mid-section that will shortly be delivered by any competent competitor.

As for the order of the relay, in this 4x4 it won't matter ...but where did you get the habit of
calling one leg the "scratch leg"? at a dog track somewhere?

[ATK]

Felix: 100heats; 24 hours; 100S/Fin; 48 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 24 hours 4х100heats; 24 hours; 4х100Fin; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

Ross: 400heats; 24 hours; 400S; 24 hours; 400Fin; 24 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 48 hours; 4х400heats?; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

They are great, but not "iron machines".
Require or rely on their high splits in the 4x400 is not correct and not real.

Neither Felix or SRR will run the heats of either relay.

[gennady]

Felix: "1"-100heats; 24 hours; "2&3"-100S/Fin; 48 hours; "4"-200heats; 24 hours; "5"-200S; 24 hours; "6"-200Fin; 24 hours 4х100heats; 24 hours; "7"-4х100Fin; 24 hours; "8"-4х400Fin;(8th start).

Ross: "1"-400heats; "2"-24 hours; 400S; 24 hours; "3"-400Fin; 24 hours; "4"-200heats; 24 hours; "5"-200S; 24 hours; "6"-200Fin; 48 hours; 4х400heats?; 24 hours; "7"-4х400Fin;(8th start).

They are great, but not "iron machines".
Require or rely on their high splits in the 4x400 is not correct and not real.

Neither Felix or SRR will run the heats of either relay.

Anyway, the final 4x4 is the 8 th and 7 th start, respectively.

[NotSoOrdinary]

I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?

But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

I have already said in one of the posts, Sanya and Allyson great athletes, fighters.
I am to them with great respect.
But look at the schedule for their participation in the Olympics.

Felix: 100heats; 24 hours; 100S/Fin; 48 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 24 hours 4х100heats; 24 hours; 4х100Fin; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

Ross: 400heats; 24 hours; 400S; 24 hours; 400Fin; 24 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 48 hours; 4х400heats?; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

They are great, but not "iron machines".
Require or rely on their high splits in the 4x400 is not correct and not real.

I keep seeing this, "they're going to be too tired" argument, but I don't quite get it.

Firstly, Allyson isn't even guaranteed to make the 100m final.
Secondly her schedule last year was much more cruel with 3 rounds of the 400, and she still narrowly lost the silver in the 200m.

Thirdly, who's to say her and Sanya both won't be included in slow heats/semis? Allyson was in the least competitive heats last year in the 400.

Lastly, AF won't be struggling through the 200 heats, she's much faster than everyone else. 22.2 is nothing. She knows this race like the back of her hand.

There's no need to be worried about the 4x4.

[gennady]

The fact that Sanya and Allyson will be like a tigress, will fight to the last in the finals I did not cause the slightest doubt.
What they can do it better than anyone else in the world today, I know very well.
I'm just talking about that in this final we will not see these results.
_SB_ _Split __Dif
49,83 48,60 1,23 Beijing Allyson Felix
49,70 48,00 1,70 Osaka Allyson Felix
49,83 48,75 1,08 Berlin Allyson Felix
49,59 49,33 0,26 Daegu Allyson Felix
49,93 48,93 1,00 Beijing Sanya Richards-Ross
49,52 49,07 0,45 Osaka Sanya Richards-Ross
49,00 48,43 0,57 Berlin Sanya Richards-Ross
49,66 49,30 0,36 Daegu Sanya Richards-Ross

And for this reason that Russian girls will be winners.

[mump boy]

You could put in a US team without Sanya and Alyson and they would still win

It's not about individual speed (especially when run at RUS champs) USA are simply MUCH better really runners than anyone else

[gh]

yeah, you can crank all the numbers in the world, but they don't translate well in 4x4 racing.

[gennady]

You could put in a US team without Sanya and Alyson and they would still win

It's not about individual speed (especially when run at RUS champs) USA are simply MUCH better really runners than anyone else

In fact, the sport has always guided by results, not emotions.
Just this season, Russian girls are better than US in all the objective indicators.
You do not have any objective argument in the dispute.
For this reason, you still bring the same subjective argument: - "We have always been the best, and for this reason we will win.
I never doubted that the American "T & F" best in the world.
But I do not mix this general situation, the situation in one particular event in one particular season.
If you look objectively at your proposal to run at the Olympics without Alison and Sanya , in this part of:
Keshia Baker
Deedee Trotter
Francena Mccorory
Diamond Dixon
U.S. can count on the best possible results: 3:20,92 sec.
With this result, the U.S. team is just going to the 5th position after:

1.RUS 3:16,96
2.JAM 3:19,42
3.BLR 3:20,17
4.NGR 3:20,63
5.USA 3:20,92
6.GBR 3:23,24
7.UKR 3:25,01
8.FRA 3:25,75

[mump boy]

You could put in a US team without Sanya and Alyson and they would still win

It's not about individual speed (especially when run at RUS champs) USA are simply MUCH better really runners than anyone else

In fact, the sport has always guided by results, not emotions.
Just this season, Russian girls are better than US in all the objective indicators.
You do not have any objective argument in the dispute.
For this reason, you still bring the same subjective argument: - "We have always been the best, and for this reason we will win.
I never doubted that the American "T & F" best in the world.
But I do not mix this general situation, the situation in one particular event in one particular season.
If you look objectively at your proposal to run at the Olympics without Alison and Sanya , in this part of:
Keshia Baker
Deedee Trotter
Francena Mccorory
Diamond Dixon
U.S. can count on the best possible results: 3:20,92 sec.
With this result, the U.S. team is just going to the 5th position after:

1.RUS 3:16,96
2.JAM 3:19,42
3.BLR 3:20,17
4.NGR 3:20,63
5.USA 3:20,92
6.GBR 3:23,24
7.UKR 3:25,01
8.FRA 3:25,75

Where on earth have you got BLR and NGR running 3.20 ?!!

NGR are going to run faster than they did with Ogunkoya, Yusuf and Opara despite having no one who's broken 51 this year ?!! and BLR are going to run even faster, beat US who have 3 runners faster than BLR No1 and beat UK by over 3 seconds despite UK top 4 runners being .6 faster on times this year

if this is what 'objectivity' gets you i'll stick with actually knowing about stuff, thanks

[NotSoOrdinary]

You could put in a US team without Sanya and Alyson and they would still win

I can't see the future so I won't comment on how well this would go over this year, but in 2008 we would've lost without the both of them. 2009, though

[Gabriella]

I don't think mump was being literal, more that the US women lift themselves for the relay, they have a team spirit and desire to raise their game and they run good races. The Russians, on the other hand, flatter to deceive and just never seem to have that same fire.

Gennady I can see what you're saying; on this seasons times, it does look like Russia are the favourites. But the last time they beat the USA in a relay 'fair and square' i.e no DQ or dropped baton, was in 1999. Beijing was very close and we could blame Kapachinskaya's lack of killer instinct for the failure, but no matter how many sub 50 runners they have or where they are on teh world lists they never raise their game the same way the Americans do and their running order is always wrong.

[tgs3]

Gennady I can see what you're saying; on this seasons times, it does look like Russia are the favourites. But the last time they beat the USA in a relay 'fair and square' i.e no DQ or dropped baton, was in 1999. Beijing was very close and we could blame Kapachinskaya's lack of killer instinct for the failure, but no matter how many sub 50 runners they have or where they are on teh world lists they never raise their game the same way the Americans do and their running order is always wrong.

It's not really season times we're talking about for the Russians. All their great times are based on what they did at the Russian Olympic trials. Take out those times, and the Russians are about 3 seconds slower as a team. Maybe they can replicate those times in London, but I think most of us are skeptical of that. Their times the rest of the year aren't much better than the USA without Richards-Ross (and Felix).

[EPelle]

Just this season, Russian girls are better than US in all the objective indicators. You do not have any objective argument in the dispute.

All the objective indicators? How fast are the Russians in the 4x4 this season? Have their top women competed in a 4x4? The US is leading the world. At least two of the four women on their world-leading team are competing on the Olympic 4x4 team as well. The objective relay indicators don't appear to validate your claim or invalidate the argument made in the case for the USA.

[Runnerz76]

I started the original post over a week ago because I couldn't pick the winner of the women's 4x400m. I was going back and forth and I could not seperate the USA and Russian 4x400 teams because they were that close. The Russians clearly have a faster overall time from their four relay members. So, I wanted to know what people thought about putting Demus on the relay in place of an unreliable Trotter. I have come to the conclusion that the USA team has three reliable legs (AF, SRR, McCorory), and the Russians have two reliable legs (Gushchina, Firova). Trotter has shown a tendency in the past to weaken late in the season, and the two Russian runners Krivoshapka and Nazarova usually run about seven tenths of a second slower outside of Russia.
IMO all of you are partially correct, and your theories are very interesting. But this really comes down to two issues once you determine that the USA has three reliabkle legs and the Russians only have two.
The first issue has to do with the Russian running order. In the past, they have put Gushchina first leg because of her 200 speed and her ability to get out fast. And they usually have the winner of the Russian Olympic Trials as their anchor runner. This killed them in 2008 because Kapachinskaya looked like a deer in headlights during the last 150 meters of the 2008 Olympic Final. You could see terror in her eyes as she waited for the American to pass her. You can't have that mentality as the anchor leg of your relay. You need a killer who will close the door on anyone thinking about passing you during the final leg. Firova ran a nice leg for the Russians in Beijing, and always runs well at the end of the season for them. The Russians need to move Krivoshapka to 1st leg. The unreliable Nazarova should go 2nd, followed by Firova 3rd, and Gushchina anchor. This way the Russians will likely have a lead after the first leg, and they will have their two most reliable runners running 3rd and 4th legs for them. You always want a killer as your anchor instead of a filler. And I think Gushchina is that person.
For the USA, they will likely lead off with McCorory, with Felix on 2nd leg, and SRR 4th leg. They will need to decide whether to put Demus on 3rd leg instead of Trotter. And a lot of this will be determined when we see Demus in the 400 meter hurdles final. And the USA coaches will also get to use Trotter in the 4x400 prelim, and let her show them that she belongs in the final. This will be a hell of a 4x400 meter relay Final on the women's side. On paper the Russians have a slight edge. But on the track the Americans have the slight edge.

[Peter Michaelson]

Interesting web site here:

http://runningwritings.blogspot.com/

Scroll down to July 18 for discussion on physics of drafting vs. front-running.

[jazzcyclist]

Interesting web site here:

http://runningwritings.blogspot.com/

Scroll down to July 18 for discussion on physics of drafting vs. front-running.

What's interesting about the article you linked is that it only deals with the draft benefit at middle distance speeds. As we all know, as wind speed increases, wind drag increases exponentially, which means that the draft benefits at 400 speeds are much greater than the draft benefits at middle distance speeds. Here are the links to a couple of other articles on the subject. Warning, the second is very tedious.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1331759/

http://www.elitetrack.com/article_files ... inting.pdf

Even if you don't want to take the time to read these articles, think of it intuitively. We all know that in the 100-meter dash, a variation of the windspeed by as little as 0.2 m/s willl measurably affect a sprinter's time by 0.01 s, which when extrapolated to 400 meters would be 0.04 s. In order to believe that there is no draft benefit in elite 4x400 relays, you have to also believe that having someone running one meter in front of you at 9 m/s (8 m/s for women), give less of a benefit than a 0.2 m/s tailwind.

[gennady]

You could put in a US team without Sanya and Alyson and they would still win

It's not about individual speed (especially when run at RUS champs) USA are simply MUCH better really runners than anyone else

In fact, the sport has always guided by results, not emotions.
Just this season, Russian girls are better than US in all the objective indicators.
You do not have any objective argument in the dispute.
For this reason, you still bring the same subjective argument: - "We have always been the best, and for this reason we will win.
I never doubted that the American "T & F" best in the world.
But I do not mix this general situation, the situation in one particular event in one particular season.
If you look objectively at your proposal to run at the Olympics without Alison and Sanya , in this part of:
Keshia Baker
Deedee Trotter
Francena Mccorory
Diamond Dixon
U.S. can count on the best possible results: 3:20,92 sec.
With this result, the U.S. team is just going to the 5th position after:

1.RUS 3:16,96
2.JAM 3:19,42
3.BLR 3:20,17
4.NGR 3:20,63
5.USA 3:20,92
6.GBR 3:23,24
7.UKR 3:25,01
8.FRA 3:25,75

Where on earth have you got BLR and NGR running 3.20 ?!!

NGR are going to run faster than they did with Ogunkoya, Yusuf and Opara despite having no one who's broken 51 this year ?!! and BLR are going to run even faster, beat US who have 3 runners faster than BLR No1 and beat UK by over 3 seconds despite UK top 4 runners being .6 faster on times this year

if this is what 'objectivity' gets you i'll stick with actually knowing about stuff, thanks

Most likely this will not happen.
I just took a typical American reception.
U.S. girls are in the relay run much faster, say many U.S. fans.
I took that rule and applied it to other teams.
Why can assume that other girls can not run well in the relay?
For Belarus:
SB___ Split Split date
52,06 49,69 23.08.2008 Sviatlana Usovich Beijing
51,79 51,80 02.09.2011 Hanna Tashpulatava Daegu
51,50 49,85 23.08.2008 Ilona Usovich Beijing
52,70 50,60 02.09.2011 Yulyana Yushchanka Daegu
208,05 201,94 Sum SB/ Sum Splits
SB 2012 6,11sec Dif.=(Sum SB - Sum Splits)
206,28 SB 2012
51,00
51,43
51,69
52,16
200,17 SB 2012 - Dif.

3:20,17 Max. Predicted Result

For Nigeria:
SB___ Split Split date
51,11 50,42 09.06.2012 Regina George NCAA 2012
52,74 51,60 02.09.2011 Omolara Omotosho Daegu
52,35 50,59 03.09.2011 Bukola Abogunloko Daegu
52,77 51,36 02.09.2011 Margaret Etim Daegu
208,97 203,97
SB 2012 5,00sec Dif.=(Sum SB - Sum Splits)
205,63 SB 2012
51,11
51,28
51,57
51,67
200,63 SB 2012 - Dif.
3:20,63 Max. Predicted Result
All results are taken from here:
http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w4x400ok.htm
So, the ball is on your side.

[t_monk]

I'd add Fedoriva in place of Nazarova.... Fedoriva for the 2nd leg.... Her or Antyukh...

[gennady]

I started the original post over a week ago.... The unreliable Nazarova...

A very strange statement.
Not a reliable athlete can not be with so merit:

Natalya Nazarova
Medal record
Women's athletics
Competitor for  Russia
Olympic Games
Bronze 2000 Sydney 4×400 m relay
Silver 2004 Athens 4×400 m relay
World Championships
Gold 1999 Seville 4×400 m relay
Silver 2003 Paris 4×400 m relay
Bronze 2009 Berlin 4x400 m relay
World Indoor Championships
Gold 1999 Maebashi 4×400 m relay
Gold 2003 Birmingham 400 m
Gold 2003 Birmingham 4×400 m relay
Gold 2004 Budapest 400 m
Gold 2004 Budapest 4×400 m relay
Gold 2006 Moscow 4×400 m relay
Gold 2008 Valencia 4×400 m relay
Silver 2008 Valencia 400 m
Silver 2010 Doha 4x400 m relay
8-th times WC Gold medal
Taken from here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalya_Nazarova

[Runnerz76]

I started the original post over a week ago.... The unreliable Nazarova...

A very strange statement.
Not a reliable athlete can not be with so merit:

Natalya Nazarova
Medal record
Women's athletics
Competitor for  Russia
Olympic Games
Bronze 2000 Sydney 4×400 m relay
Silver 2004 Athens 4×400 m relay
World Championships
Gold 1999 Seville 4×400 m relay
Silver 2003 Paris 4×400 m relay
Bronze 2009 Berlin 4x400 m relay
World Indoor Championships
Gold 1999 Maebashi 4×400 m relay
Gold 2003 Birmingham 400 m
Gold 2003 Birmingham 4×400 m relay
Gold 2004 Budapest 400 m
Gold 2004 Budapest 4×400 m relay
Gold 2006 Moscow 4×400 m relay
Gold 2008 Valencia 4×400 m relay
Silver 2008 Valencia 400 m
Silver 2010 Doha 4x400 m relay
8-th times WC Gold medal
Taken from here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalya_Nazarova

My statement isn't strange if you examine what the 33 year old Nazarova has done during the last four years. She has a clear record of running much faster in the Russian Championships, and then going to Europe and crapping the bed.

~Example #1, In 2009, Nazarova ran a respectable 50.56 at the Russian Championships. She continued her season that year outside of Russia and never broke 52.10 for the rest of the season. She was a full second and a half slower outside of Russia.

~Example # 2, in 2010, Nazarova ran 50.88 at the Russian Championships. She continued her season outside of Russia for several races and could only run a best time of 52.20. She was a full second and a half slower outside of Russia.

~In 2011, Nazarova only ran a few relays and didnt run in any open 400 meter races.

I am not taking any credit away from Nazarova. She has had an amazing career and won many medals. She is a remarkable runner with great credentials. But we are talking about the 2012 Olympics, not 2004. We are talking about a race that will be run outside of Russia. I have concerns about the 33 year old Nazarova, and her ability to win the gold medal for Russia in London. She has not proven to be reliable ouside of Russia in the last four years. Do the Russians want to pin their hopes on someone who can run 50 seconds in Russia, but can't run much faster than 51.5 outside of the country. I think not.

[gennady]

I think that everything will be clarified in the tournament 400m.
We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.
She has no moral right to a second golden chance, and Litvinova need to repay the debt in 2008.
These figures are well speak for themselves.
2012 2008 2008
50,61 50,62 49,20 Lyudmila Litvinova
50,37 50,03 49,82 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya
It can also be included Antyukh it on July 21 showed 22.72 not bad at 200m.

[Gabriella]

I started the original post over a week ago.... The unreliable Nazarova...

A very strange statement.

She may have been on lots of winning relay teams, but in outdoor championships she can be described as 'okay' at best. As far as I'm aware she has never run sub 50 on an outdoor major championship relay. In Munich 02 (Europeans) she ran 52.0 on the second leg. In Paris 03 she was on the last leg and only ran 50.93, despite running sub 50 in the 400 final. In Athens 04 she ran 50.0 on the second leg. She did the same split time in Osaka 07 on the same leg; and that effectively ruled them out of any chance of gold or silver. Even her best tactical leg, back in Seville, was a 50.17.

So, I would definitely not include her in my final 4. I wouldn't have included Vdovina either, who has run poor relay legs... but both of these have been selected over Litvinova, who is a much more reliable relay runner but only 7th in the nationals.
They'll probably run Vdovina in just the heats, with either Nazarova or Kapachinskaya then two from their 3 fastest this year; Firova, Guschine & Krivoshapka.

[ATK]

We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.

Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

[gennady]

We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.

Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

Absolutely.
You quote the subjective facts of the series: "shouda, woulda, coulda".
I quote you the objective facts - Kapachinskaya a bad relay runner, in comparison with other Russian girls:
_SB_ _Split _Dif. Leg Date Name.
51,25 51,10 -0,15 1 02.09.2007 Litvinova
50,62 49,20 -1,42 3 23.08.2008 Litvinova
50,27 50,01 -0,26 3 23.08.2009 Litvinova
50,92 49,96 -0,96 3 03.09.2011 Litvinova
__.__ Sum. -2,79
50,59 50,67 0,08 3 31.08.2003 Kapachinskaya
50,02 49,82 -0,20 4 23.08.2008 Kapachinskaya
50,16 50,60 0,44 1 01.08.2010 Kapachinskaya
49,35 49,22 -0,13 1 03.09.2011 Kapachinskaya
49,97 50,76 0,79 1 23.08.2009 Kapachinskaya
__.__ Sum. 0,98
50,11 49,20 -0,91 3 23.08.2008 Firova
50,41 50,09 -0,32 3 13.08.2005 Firova
49,89 49,44 -0,45 4 01.08.2010 Firova
50,59 49,81 -0,78 2 23.08.2009 Firova
50,59 49,50 -1,09 2 22.08.2009 Firova
__.__ Sum. -3,55
49,65 50,00 0,35 2 28.08.2004 Nazarova
50,52 50,00 -0,52 2 02.09.2007 Nazarova
50,48 50,17 -0,31 4 29.08.1999 Nazarova
49,78 50,93 1,15 4 31.08.2003 Nazarova
50,56 51,80 0,67 1 22.08.2009 Nazarova
__.__ Sum. 0,67
49,85 49,43 -0,42 4 28.08.2004 Antyukh
49,93 49,40 -0,53 4 02.09.2007 Antyukh
50,67 49,40 -1,27 2 13.08.2005 Antyukh
50,67 49,72 -0,95 3 14.08.2005 Antyukh
50,73 50,00 -0,73 2 03.09.2011 Antyukh
Nres. 50,35 3 20.06.2010 Antyukh
50,90 50,85 -0,05 3 22.08.2009 Antyukh
__.__ Sum. -3,00
Later, I will send you a more in-depth analysis.
Try to imagine what would be discussed at this forum, if the first number of U.S. team 4x400m having at exchange 0.66sec ahead, would have lost at the finish 0.23sec.
It is terrible to think about it.

[ATK]

We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.

Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

Absolutely.
You quote the subjective facts of the series: "shouda, woulda, coulda".
I quote you the objective facts - Kapachinskaya a bad relay runner, in comparison with other Russian girls:

.........

Later, I will send you a more in-depth analysis.
Try to imagine what would be discussed at this forum, if the first number of U.S. team 4x400m having at exchange 0.66sec ahead, would have lost at the finish 0.22sec.
It is terrible to think about it.

Your killing yourself with stats.
You are actually the one giving "shouda, woulda, coulda" answers.

These are the facts:
Kapa WAS the russian anchor leg in Beijing.
Russia DID run within .5 of their national record in the 4x4.
Kapa DID get run down by the 7th fastest woman in history, while she had never even even broken 50 yet.

You cant say that any other Russian would have run better than Kapa did on that anchor leg in Beijing based off what they had done before or in other relays. That is 100% assumption.

[mump boy]

We have a good bench, although I would like to see Litvinova instead of Kapachinskaya.
Kapachinskaya had a chance in 2008 if not she, then we would be champions.

Do you really think that? She got ran down in the final meters by SRR, the 7th fastest woman in history. Not only that but she anchored her team to a time less than .5 from their national record...

Absolutely.
You quote the subjective facts of the series: "shouda, woulda, coulda".
I quote you the objective facts - Kapachinskaya a bad relay runner, in comparison with other Russian girls:
_SB_ _Split _Dif. Leg Date Name.
51,25 51,10 -0,15 1 02.09.2007 Litvinova
50,62 49,20 -1,42 3 23.08.2008 Litvinova
50,27 50,01 -0,26 3 23.08.2009 Litvinova
50,92 49,96 -0,96 3 03.09.2011 Litvinova
__.__ Sum. -2,79
50,59 50,67 0,08 3 31.08.2003 Kapachinskaya
50,02 49,82 -0,20 4 23.08.2008 Kapachinskaya
50,16 50,60 0,44 1 01.08.2010 Kapachinskaya
49,35 49,22 -0,13 1 03.09.2011 Kapachinskaya
49,97 50,76 0,79 1 23.08.2009 Kapachinskaya
__.__ Sum. 0,98
50,11 49,20 -0,91 3 23.08.2008 Firova
50,41 50,09 -0,32 3 13.08.2005 Firova
49,89 49,44 -0,45 4 01.08.2010 Firova
50,59 49,81 -0,78 2 23.08.2009 Firova
50,59 49,50 -1,09 2 22.08.2009 Firova
__.__ Sum. -3,55
49,65 50,00 0,35 2 28.08.2004 Nazarova
50,52 50,00 -0,52 2 02.09.2007 Nazarova
50,48 50,17 -0,31 4 29.08.1999 Nazarova
49,78 50,93 1,15 4 31.08.2003 Nazarova
50,56 51,80 0,67 1 22.08.2009 Nazarova
__.__ Sum. 0,67
49,85 49,43 -0,42 4 28.08.2004 Antyukh
49,93 49,40 -0,53 4 02.09.2007 Antyukh
50,67 49,40 -1,27 2 13.08.2005 Antyukh
50,67 49,72 -0,95 3 14.08.2005 Antyukh
50,73 50,00 -0,73 2 03.09.2011 Antyukh
Nres. 50,35 3 20.06.2010 Antyukh
50,90 50,85 -0,05 3 22.08.2009 Antyukh
__.__ Sum. -3,00
Later, I will send you a more in-depth analysis.
Try to imagine what would be discussed at this forum, if the first number of U.S. team 4x400m having at exchange 0.66sec ahead, would have lost at the finish 0.23sec.
It is terrible to think about it.

Please don't