Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final


Main message board: for the discussion of topical track & field items only.

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:02 am

Demus, or someone else - Russia anyway won!
And for why:
Trying to "reasonable" outcome prediction OG 4x400m women/men.
Two apparent leader of a rival.
Baseline data - PB/AT personal record.
SB-12 - the best result this season.
SP.PB - personal best split in relay.
SB.SP - personal best results in 400m in the same best split's season.
The difference between SB.SP - SP.PB says about the ability of the athlete to show the best result for the team, against the individual results.. Mobilizing factor.
Of course there is a difference in the improvement of the split due to the vanishing race but the influence of this factor is small. Mobilization factor anymore.
Dif. - Result in seconds.
First, all summed SB.SP, then summed SP.PB.
The difference between these two sums indicates the team left. Fighting the quality of the team. Mobilizing factor.
SB-12 - the best result this season in the bottom of this column, the amount of SB-12 team members.
This is the result of the alleged command.
Further is a "forecast".
Calculated as (sum of SB-12) - "Dif." This is the best possible result of the command. Potential.
Of course, this method estimates the maximum potential of the team and nothing more.
Nevertheless, based on objective results.

Russia
PB/AT SB-12 SB.SP SP.PB
49,16 49,16 50,55 50,30 Antonina Krivoshapka date SP.PB 03.09.2011
49,28 49,28 50,01 50,60 Yuliya Gushchina date SP.PB 23.08.2008
49,72 49,72 50,11 49,20 Tatyana Firova date SP.PB 23.08.2008
49,65 50,00 50,63 50,00 Natalya Nazarova date SP.PB 28.08.2004
3:17,81; 3:18,16; (201,30-200,10)=1,20 "forecast" 3:16,96.

USA
PB/AT SB-12 SB.SP SP.PB
48,70 49,28 49,00 48,43 Sanya Richards-Ross date SP.PB 23.08.2009
49,64 50,02 50,00 49,80 Deedee Trotter date SP.PB 28.08.2004
50,06 50,06 50,24 49,52 Francena McCorory date SP.PB 03.09.2011
49,59 49,59 49,70 48,00 Allyson Felix date SP.PB 02.09.2007
3:18,95; 3:20,14; (198,94-195,75)=3,19 "forecast" 3:15,76 :shock:

Now to the "bare" arithmetic to add details of the Olympic tournament.
Felix: 3 rounds in the 100m, 200m, plus 3 rounds plus one round of 4x100.
Total seven races before the final 4h400m, the finale will be the eighth race.
Sanya: 6 laps in the 200/400m, 4x400 finals will be the seventh race.
Of course they are great athletes, but the greatness is the limit.
Felix: it can be safely reduced 0.85 to 0.25.
Sanya: it can be safely reduced 0.85 to 0.10.
So instead, we have not 3.19 but only 1.27
The real "forecast" is 3:18,95-1,27 = 3:17,68. :(

For all calculations, we (RUS) ahead with a very respectable margin.
Our girls(Rus) will do your (U.S.), in spite of Sanya and Allyson. :D
Last edited by gennady on Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
gennady
 
Posts: 608
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:00 am
Location: Moskva, Russia

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby t_monk » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:43 am

One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....
t_monk
 
Posts: 4334
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2009 12:03 pm
Location: New Haven, CT + Kgn, JA

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Fri Jul 27, 2012 7:57 am

t_monk wrote:One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....


Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn!
He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing.
Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.
gennady
 
Posts: 608
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:00 am
Location: Moskva, Russia

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby t_monk » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:07 am

gennady wrote:
t_monk wrote:One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....


Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn!
He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing.
Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.


Yup.... I actually agree.... the big problem with the US team is a doubling SRR and Felix.... Felix would have ran 3 rounds of 100, 3 rounds of 200 and the finals of the 4x100 prior to running a leg of the 4x400. While SRR would have ran 3 rounds of 400 and 3 rounds of 200 before running a leg of the 4x400.
t_monk
 
Posts: 4334
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2009 12:03 pm
Location: New Haven, CT + Kgn, JA

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gh » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:10 am

from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
gh
 
Posts: 46322
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Marlow » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:14 am

gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

You lost me. Are you insinuating that we'd have to be in Lane 2 on a curve to pass? A pass on the straight wouldn't add a meter would it?
Marlow
 
Posts: 21088
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2008 5:00 pm
Location: Somewhere over the . . . hill

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:17 am

t_monk wrote:
gennady wrote:
t_monk wrote:One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....


Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn!
He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing.
Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.


Yup.... I actually agree.... the big problem with the US team is a doubling SRR and Felix.... Felix would have ran 3 rounds of 100, 3 rounds of 200 and the finals of the 4x100 prior to running a leg of the 4x400. While SRR would have ran 3 rounds of 400 and 3 rounds of 200 before running a leg of the 4x400.

Felix has been split 48.0 in Osaka after 3 rounds of 200m.
In Sanya 48.43 split was also fourth in Berlin.
I am afraid that they shot all their bullets before relay.
gennady
 
Posts: 608
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:00 am
Location: Moskva, Russia

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby iain » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:19 am

gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.
iain
 
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2012 5:50 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gh » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:24 am

Marlow wrote:
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

You lost me. Are you insinuating that we'd have to be in Lane 2 on a curve to pass? A pass on the straight wouldn't add a meter would it?


I always sucked at geometry, but I'm pretty darn sure that any motion you make that isn't parallel to the lane line adds distance. May not be much, but it may not take much.

You're also ignoring two other basics:

The tendency when you are shadowing somebody is pull up (even on the curve) on their outside shoulder. You avoid getting spiked and are meter closer to them than you would be if you stuck to the rail. More distance covered.

And then there's sure to be at least one aborted passing attempt, where you swing wide and move, but the runner ahead of you counters, and if it doesn't' feel right, you pull back in. Repeat if necessary.

All this adds significant distance to a front-running bunch on the rail the whole way (after the first 3 turns, obviously).
gh
 
Posts: 46322
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ATK » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:29 am

iain wrote:
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.

Yea the US had 2 sub par legs in Wineberg and Henderson.
ATK
 
Posts: 3805
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby notlef70 » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:39 am

iain wrote:
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.

I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.


"OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH!!!" You can expect Russia to win, however, the 4x400 is a pride thing. With AF and SRR on the team, and Mccorry/Demus or the other young lady, they WILL NOT LOSE!!! Barring injury, or course....
notlef70
 
Posts: 180
Joined: Sun Jun 03, 2012 2:13 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:00 am

Let us remember 2008, as it were.

Split _SB_ Dif. Leg time
50,32 51,00 -0,68 _51,00 Mary Wineberg
49,83 48,60 1,23 _99,60 Allyson Felix
50,98 50,06 0,92 149,66 Monique Henderson
49,93 48,93 1,00 198,59 Sanya Richards-Ross

50,01 50,60 -0,59 _50,60 Yuliya Gushchina
50,62 49,20 1,42 _99,80 Lyudmila Litvinova
50,11 49,20 0,91 149,00 Tatyana Firova
50,03 49,82 0,21 198,82 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya


The first three Russian girls Won three stages of his relay with a difference 0.66sek.
The Russian team did not lose the relay.
Relay Kapachinskaya lost.
She lost a step Sanya with a difference 0.89sec.
In the finals she loses, but with a smaller difference:
49,62 1 Christine Ohuruogu
50,03 5 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya
-0,41
Here are the results of her last years in the relay:

Split _SB_ Dif. Date
50,03 49,82 0,21 23.08.2008 leg 4 Beijing
50,59 50,67 -0,08 31.08.2003 leg 3 Saint-Denis
49,35 49,22 0,13 31.08.2003 leg 4 Daegu
50,16 50,60 -0,44 01.08.2010 leg 1 Barcelona
49,97 50,76 -0,79 23.08.2009 leg 1 Berlin

The conclusion is simple - she does not relay a fighter, I can not understand why the Russian coaches is hard do not see.
Last edited by gennady on Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
gennady
 
Posts: 608
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:00 am
Location: Moskva, Russia

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby iain » Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:37 am

Kapchinskaya is slower than Krivoshapka, Gushchina, Firova, Nazarova this year, plus Antyukh will probs be picked ahead. Ergo, Russia win :p
iain
 
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2012 5:50 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Marquis » Fri Jul 27, 2012 12:33 pm

The best possible choice for the relay pool is not eligible to run the rounds and that is World Junior Champ Ashley Spencer who skipped the trials to concentrate on the Junior Champs where she destroyed the field. Would have been great experience for the USA's next great 400 runner.
Marquis
 
Posts: 185
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 27, 2012 1:04 pm

gh wrote:The tendency when you are shadowing somebody is pull up (even on the curve) on their outside shoulder. You avoid getting spiked and are meter closer to them than you would be if you stuck to the rail. More distance covered.

Yeah, but the extra distance run on the curves is outweighed by the benefits of drafting for the entire lap.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10858
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gh » Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:50 pm

while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.
gh
 
Posts: 46322
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ATK » Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:52 pm

gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

Even so, I doubt it comes close to outweighing the extra distance run.
ATK
 
Posts: 3805
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby j-a-m » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:09 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:Yeah, but the extra distance run on the curves is outweighed by the benefits of drafting for the entire lap.

What about the rabbit / pace setter effect?
j-a-m
 
Posts: 2449
Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 8:21 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gh » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:14 pm

totally different concept on a 400 relay leg than in distance running.
gh
 
Posts: 46322
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:31 am
Location: firmly at Arya's side!

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:55 pm

gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10858
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ATK » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:01 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:
gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.

Your talking about the fastest athletes ever running at those speeds. If im correct, most of these athletes don't go that fast in the 400m.
ATK
 
Posts: 3805
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Peter Michaelson » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:04 pm

NotSoOrdinary:

Please refresh my memory. What happened with Trotter on the relay in Osaka?

aaronk:

Am I missing something? The first split is from the gun to the 800 start line. The second split is from the 800 start line to the finish line. The third and fourth splits are finish line to finish line. As long as you can see the 800 start line (which is the 1 turn stagger line) you should not have a problem.
Peter Michaelson
 
Posts: 353
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:18 pm

ATK wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:
gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.

You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.

Your talking about the fastest athletes ever running at those speeds. If im correct, most of these athletes don't go that fast in the 400m.

I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10858
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby ATK » Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:27 pm

jazzcyclist wrote:I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.

curious if you can show me some states on this.
ATK
 
Posts: 3805
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:00 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:29 pm

ATK wrote:
jazzcyclist wrote:I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.

curious if you can show me some states on this.

It's pretty straightforward math. To calculate the average speed in mph from a 400 time, divide 1440 by the time and multiply by 0.621:

(1440/time) x 0.621 = speed in mph.

Michael Johnson has split 42.91 and Marita Koch has split 47.70. You do the math.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10858
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby NotSoOrdinary » Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:14 am

Runnerz76 wrote:You are right GH. I think the USA women's 4x400 should just concentrate on winning the Gold Medal first. The Russians are coming with much more talent than they brought in 2008. Go ahead and give the American women the Gold at your own peril. But I think it will be a hell of a final. It will surely take 3:16 or better to beat the Russians this year.


People have been saying this for the past 3 years #RIP
NotSoOrdinary
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby NotSoOrdinary » Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:24 am

Peter Michaelson wrote:NotSoOrdinary:

Please refresh my memory. What happened with Trotter on the relay in Osaka?


She handed off I believe 4th or 5th...
NotSoOrdinary
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby NotSoOrdinary » Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:28 am

I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?

But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.
NotSoOrdinary
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby Peter Michaelson » Sat Jul 28, 2012 3:09 am

NotSoOrdinary:

The last time the US lost a major 4 x 400 was March 11, 2012.
Peter Michaelson
 
Posts: 353
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby NotSoOrdinary » Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:13 am

Peter Michaelson wrote:NotSoOrdinary:

The last time the US lost a major 4 x 400 was March 11, 2012.


I expected a smart alec response like this. Of course, why don't we bring up indoors in a thread specifically talking about outdoors. Not only that, but a race where GB's best team barely beat a USA B-team. I literally could only name Sanya and Natasha on the US team, the other two are complete non-factors.

So let me ask again, more specifically this time:

When was the last time another country defeated a USA A-team (meaning a team that included both AF & SRR) in a major outdoor competition?
NotSoOrdinary
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:20 am

NotSoOrdinary wrote:Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10858
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby NotSoOrdinary » Sat Jul 28, 2012 5:04 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
NotSoOrdinary wrote:Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.


Sure she did. AF 48.0 > Flojo 48.1

For multiple reasons.
NotSoOrdinary
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jjimbojames » Sat Jul 28, 2012 5:12 am

AF still ran slower than others though - or do you mean fastest American split?
jjimbojames
 
Posts: 746
Joined: Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:16 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby NotSoOrdinary » Sat Jul 28, 2012 5:56 am

jjimbojames wrote:AF still ran slower than others though - or do you mean fastest American split?


American.
NotSoOrdinary
 
Posts: 813
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2009 12:38 pm

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby DJG » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:35 am

The "other relay" is my main concern, but let me say that
the Russian 4x4 teams I have watched over the years manage
to under-perform when it counts the most.
I expect they will run the fastest qualifying time in the prelims,
only to come in third or fourth in the final.
The US will win this easily...I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we
respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.
So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.


The US women win by 25 m or more.
DJG
 
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:33 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby EPelle » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:41 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
NotSoOrdinary wrote:Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

Allyson did not run the fastest split ever.

Fastest world championships split. Ever.
EPelle
 
Posts: 21442
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby jazzcyclist » Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:59 am

DJG wrote:I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I mentioned in an earlier post why I thought it was a bad idea to put Sanya on scratch leg instead of McCrory. I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.
DJG wrote:I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.

This is a science thing, not an opinion thing. Do you believe in physics?
DJG wrote: So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.

I believe gh was talking about the tendency of trailing runners to run on the shoulder of the leading runner through the turn, to the outside of lane one instead of up against the rail.
Last edited by jazzcyclist on Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
jazzcyclist
 
Posts: 10858
Joined: Sat Oct 08, 2005 4:32 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby iain » Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:13 am

The Russians didn't underperform in Beijing.
Pre Olympic Times:
2008
USA - 49.74, 49.83, 50.32, 50.80
RUS - 50.02, 50.12, 50.25, 50.51
2012
USA - 49.28, 50.02, 50.06, 50.50
RUS - 49.16, 49.28, 49.72, 50.00

USA = -0.83
RUS = -2.74

From 08 times:
USA - 3:17.71
RUS - 3:16.08
iain
 
Posts: 294
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2012 5:50 am

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby gennady » Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:49 am

NotSoOrdinary wrote:I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?

But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."

Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.

I have already said in one of the posts, Sanya and Allyson great athletes, fighters.
I am to them with great respect.
But look at the schedule for their participation in the Olympics.

Felix: 100heats; 24 hours; 100S/Fin; 48 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 24 hours 4х100heats; 24 hours; 4х100Fin; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

Ross: 400heats; 24 hours; 400S; 24 hours; 400Fin; 24 hours; 200heats; 24 hours; 200S; 24 hours; 200Fin; 48 hours; 4х400heats?; 24 hours; 4х400Fin;(8th start).

They are great, but not "iron machines".
Require or rely on their high splits in the 4x400 is not correct and not real.
gennady
 
Posts: 608
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:00 am
Location: Moskva, Russia

Re: Should Demus be in 4x400 Relay Final

Postby DJG » Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:19 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
DJG wrote:I would lead SRR off and follow with AF...
the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that
will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.

I think that's a bad idea for reason that I mentioned earlier.
I mentioned in an earlier post why I thought it was a bad idea to put Sanya on scratch leg instead of McCrory. I will have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.
DJG wrote:I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns.

This is a science thing, not an opinion thing. Do you believe in physics?
DJG wrote: So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.

I believe gh was talking about the tendency of trailing runners to run on the shoulder of the leading runner through the turn, to the outside of lane one instead of up against the rail.


Sure physics is a fine thing...I recall reading that according to physics divers should not be capable of doing some of the moves in their dives that they do.
As for any infinitissimal positive effect a runner may get from basically running in the other runner's shorts, that is negated by the elbow to his mid-section that will shortly be delivered by any competent competitor.

As for the order of the relay, in this 4x4 it won't matter ...but where did you get the habit of
calling one leg the "scratch leg"? at a dog track somewhere?
DJG
 
Posts: 559
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:33 am

Next

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AS, Bing [Bot], donley2, JumboElliott, lpd, meatball, norunner and 19 guests