Demus, or someone else - Russia anyway won! And for why: Trying to "reasonable" outcome prediction OG 4x400m women/men. Two apparent leader of a rival. Baseline data - PB/AT personal record. SB-12 - the best result this season. SP.PB - personal best split in relay. SB.SP - personal best results in 400m in the same best split's season. The difference between SB.SP - SP.PB says about the ability of the athlete to show the best result for the team, against the individual results.. Mobilizing factor. Of course there is a difference in the improvement of the split due to the vanishing race but the influence of this factor is small. Mobilization factor anymore. Dif. - Result in seconds. First, all summed SB.SP, then summed SP.PB. The difference between these two sums indicates the team left. Fighting the quality of the team. Mobilizing factor. SB-12 - the best result this season in the bottom of this column, the amount of SB-12 team members. This is the result of the alleged command. Further is a "forecast". Calculated as (sum of SB-12) - "Dif." This is the best possible result of the command. Potential. Of course, this method estimates the maximum potential of the team and nothing more. Nevertheless, based on objective results.
Russia PB/AT SB-12 SB.SP SP.PB 49,16 49,16 50,55 50,30 Antonina Krivoshapka date SP.PB 03.09.2011 49,28 49,28 50,01 50,60 Yuliya Gushchina date SP.PB 23.08.2008 49,72 49,72 50,11 49,20 Tatyana Firova date SP.PB 23.08.2008 49,65 50,00 50,63 50,00 Natalya Nazarova date SP.PB 28.08.2004 3:17,81; 3:18,16; (201,30-200,10)=1,20 "forecast" 3:16,96.
USA PB/AT SB-12 SB.SP SP.PB 48,70 49,28 49,00 48,43 Sanya Richards-Ross date SP.PB 23.08.2009 49,64 50,02 50,00 49,80 Deedee Trotter date SP.PB 28.08.2004 50,06 50,06 50,24 49,52 Francena McCorory date SP.PB 03.09.2011 49,59 49,59 49,70 48,00 Allyson Felix date SP.PB 02.09.2007 3:18,95; 3:20,14; (198,94-195,75)=3,19 "forecast" 3:15,76
Now to the "bare" arithmetic to add details of the Olympic tournament. Felix: 3 rounds in the 100m, 200m, plus 3 rounds plus one round of 4x100. Total seven races before the final 4h400m, the finale will be the eighth race. Sanya: 6 laps in the 200/400m, 4x400 finals will be the seventh race. Of course they are great athletes, but the greatness is the limit. Felix: it can be safely reduced 0.85 to 0.25. Sanya: it can be safely reduced 0.85 to 0.10. So instead, we have not 3.19 but only 1.27 The real "forecast" is 3:18,95-1,27 = 3:17,68.
For all calculations, we (RUS) ahead with a very respectable margin. Our girls(Rus) will do your (U.S.), in spite of Sanya and Allyson.
Last edited by gennady on Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
t_monk wrote:One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....
Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn! He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing. Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.
t_monk wrote:One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....
Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn! He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing. Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.
Yup.... I actually agree.... the big problem with the US team is a doubling SRR and Felix.... Felix would have ran 3 rounds of 100, 3 rounds of 200 and the finals of the 4x100 prior to running a leg of the 4x400. While SRR would have ran 3 rounds of 400 and 3 rounds of 200 before running a leg of the 4x400.
from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
You lost me. Are you insinuating that we'd have to be in Lane 2 on a curve to pass? A pass on the straight wouldn't add a meter would it?
t_monk wrote:One HUGE flaw in your calculations...... Allyson Felix.....
Forgetfulness took an old settlement, to DQ Debbie Dunn! He has made the correct changes to the previous post. Look again after editing. Russia won no less than 0.5 seconds.
Yup.... I actually agree.... the big problem with the US team is a doubling SRR and Felix.... Felix would have ran 3 rounds of 100, 3 rounds of 200 and the finals of the 4x100 prior to running a leg of the 4x400. While SRR would have ran 3 rounds of 400 and 3 rounds of 200 before running a leg of the 4x400.
Felix has been split 48.0 in Osaka after 3 rounds of 200m. In Sanya 48.43 split was also fourth in Berlin. I am afraid that they shot all their bullets before relay.
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
You lost me. Are you insinuating that we'd have to be in Lane 2 on a curve to pass? A pass on the straight wouldn't add a meter would it?
I always sucked at geometry, but I'm pretty darn sure that any motion you make that isn't parallel to the lane line adds distance. May not be much, but it may not take much.
You're also ignoring two other basics:
The tendency when you are shadowing somebody is pull up (even on the curve) on their outside shoulder. You avoid getting spiked and are meter closer to them than you would be if you stuck to the rail. More distance covered.
And then there's sure to be at least one aborted passing attempt, where you swing wide and move, but the runner ahead of you counters, and if it doesn't' feel right, you pull back in. Repeat if necessary.
All this adds significant distance to a front-running bunch on the rail the whole way (after the first 3 turns, obviously).
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.
Yea the US had 2 sub par legs in Wineberg and Henderson.
gh wrote:from where I sit the only way Russia can beat the U.S. is to ensure a mismatch on the first leg and get out in front so that the U.S. has to run more than 1600m.
I have to disagree. Russia came very close in 08 without a sub-50 runner. With both the US' best runners doubling, I would expect Russia to win.
"OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH!!!" You can expect Russia to win, however, the 4x400 is a pride thing. With AF and SRR on the team, and Mccorry/Demus or the other young lady, they WILL NOT LOSE!!! Barring injury, or course....
The first three Russian girls Won three stages of his relay with a difference 0.66sek. The Russian team did not lose the relay. Relay Kapachinskaya lost. She lost a step Sanya with a difference 0.89sec. In the finals she loses, but with a smaller difference: 49,62 1 Christine Ohuruogu 50,03 5 Anastasiya Kapachinskaya -0,41 Here are the results of her last years in the relay:
Split _SB_ Dif. Date 50,03 49,82 0,21 23.08.2008 leg 4 Beijing 50,59 50,67 -0,08 31.08.2003 leg 3 Saint-Denis 49,35 49,22 0,13 31.08.2003 leg 4 Daegu 50,16 50,60 -0,44 01.08.2010 leg 1 Barcelona 49,97 50,76 -0,79 23.08.2009 leg 1 Berlin
The conclusion is simple - she does not relay a fighter, I can not understand why the Russian coaches is hard do not see.
Last edited by gennady on Fri Jul 27, 2012 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
The best possible choice for the relay pool is not eligible to run the rounds and that is World Junior Champ Ashley Spencer who skipped the trials to concentrate on the Junior Champs where she destroyed the field. Would have been great experience for the USA's next great 400 runner.
gh wrote:The tendency when you are shadowing somebody is pull up (even on the curve) on their outside shoulder. You avoid getting spiked and are meter closer to them than you would be if you stuck to the rail. More distance covered.
Yeah, but the extra distance run on the curves is outweighed by the benefits of drafting for the entire lap.
while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.
gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.
Even so, I doubt it comes close to outweighing the extra distance run.
gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.
You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.
gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.
You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.
Your talking about the fastest athletes ever running at those speeds. If im correct, most of these athletes don't go that fast in the 400m.
Please refresh my memory. What happened with Trotter on the relay in Osaka?
aaronk:
Am I missing something? The first split is from the gun to the 800 start line. The second split is from the 800 start line to the finish line. The third and fourth splits are finish line to finish line. As long as you can see the 800 start line (which is the 1 turn stagger line) you should not have a problem.
gh wrote:while it can be handy to have somebody act as a bit of a wind break for you, I've never really bought into the theory that drafting would have any significant effect (or even work) at such slow speeds.
You're mistaken. At 18 mph for women and 20 mph for men, there is absolutely a measurable draft benefit.
Your talking about the fastest athletes ever running at those speeds. If im correct, most of these athletes don't go that fast in the 400m.
I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.
jazzcyclist wrote:I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.
jazzcyclist wrote:I'm tallking about mid-49 splits for the women and mid-44 splits for the women, which is about average for a American national team, if not slightly below average. The fastest splits of all time would give speeds of 19 mph and 21 mph, respectively.
curious if you can show me some states on this.
It's pretty straightforward math. To calculate the average speed in mph from a 400 time, divide 1440 by the time and multiply by 0.621:
(1440/time) x 0.621 = speed in mph.
Michael Johnson has split 42.91 and Marita Koch has split 47.70. You do the math.
Runnerz76 wrote:You are right GH. I think the USA women's 4x400 should just concentrate on winning the Gold Medal first. The Russians are coming with much more talent than they brought in 2008. Go ahead and give the American women the Gold at your own peril. But I think it will be a hell of a final. It will surely take 3:16 or better to beat the Russians this year.
People have been saying this for the past 3 years #RIP
I don't think we need to use any calculations or mathematics when it comes down to who's going to win the 4x400m. When was the last time the US lost a major 4x400?
But aside from that, Allyson and Sanya both turn into different runners dependent upon the circumstances. They can push themselves beyond what is expected, purely because they "don't want to let the team down."
Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.
The last time the US lost a major 4 x 400 was March 11, 2012.
I expected a smart alec response like this. Of course, why don't we bring up indoors in a thread specifically talking about outdoors. Not only that, but a race where GB's best team barely beat a USA B-team. I literally could only name Sanya and Natasha on the US team, the other two are complete non-factors.
So let me ask again, more specifically this time:
When was the last time another country defeated a USA A-team (meaning a team that included both AF & SRR) in a major outdoor competition?
NotSoOrdinary wrote:Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.
NotSoOrdinary wrote:Allyson had never been on a major 4x400 relay until 2007 and when she saw how behind the US was she simply closed the gap and in the process ran the fastest split ever. Sanya is the same way. They won't let the US lose.
The "other relay" is my main concern, but let me say that the Russian 4x4 teams I have watched over the years manage to under-perform when it counts the most. I expect they will run the fastest qualifying time in the prelims, only to come in third or fourth in the final. The US will win this easily...I would lead SRR off and follow with AF... the other 2 legs will then run comfortably with a big lead that will get bigger as the others go out too fast and finish too slow.
I also believe this drafting thing is more myth than real at these speeds (sorry Jazz, we respectfully disagree again) and smart 400 runners pass on the straights and not the turns. So this "extra distance" thing should not be a factor either.
