Examining The 4 x 100's Completion Rate

[DJG]

Link on Home page under Today's readings.

This analysis fails to mention that other countries, excluding Jamaica, must use their exchanges to make up for lack of foot speed if they are to have any chance at a medal.
They must attempt riskier exchanges. The US has been cautious in their exchanges (recall Berlin and the early touch) and still manages to underachieve. The US exchange rate is by far the worst.


Drummond's view of the US 4x1 relays has evolved from "Shit happens", "a few unfortunate mishaps", "it's the law of averages", "we've only lost twice", "there are no problems."

After watching Drummond in the Flotrack interview, I can only hope that the athletes on the 4x1's can rise above their coach.

[Randy Treadway]

So what do other countries with consistently successful handoffs in international competitions, do differently in preparation?
(I know, it's probably a state secret guarded by all those country's intelligence services, which they won't share with the CIA )

Do they simply have better psychiatric advisors? Is it all in the head, not in endless practices?

[j-a-m]

So what do other countries with consistently successful handoffs in international competitions, do differently in preparation?

Most countries don't have runners that have a chance in the individual sprints. Because of that they can spend more time preparing for the relay.

[dfj]

hye

as i said in another thread....it's in the correct "set-up"... it takes one practice.

three years ago while coaching in a foreign county (no it wasn't Jamaica) i took three decathletes, did a one afternoon session.. legs.. 2-3-4... they went to a club competition.. added a sprinter (first leg from the blocks) who was not even in the country's top 10 in the 100m..and ran 40.58 in 55 degree temp and wet conditions...

We (coaches) make it difficult, it doesn't "fit" the athletes natural "feel" because it is set-up wrong AND THEN we blame the athlete...

dfj

[Mighty Favog]

This analysis fails to mention that other countries, excluding Jamaica, must use their exchanges to make up for lack of foot speed if they are to have any chance at a medal.
They must attempt riskier exchanges.

I wrote that article. While this may be quite true, the data set I have does not show that correlation. The essential problem for those countries is that you can't medal if you don't take chances, but you can't medal if you don't get the stick around the track.

I sure wish Drummond was like Van Commenee, who has said he'll resign after the Olympics if the team performance is not good enough.

I also think it's foolish to believe the Jamaicans are incapable of goofing up an exchange. I also think their coaches are quite aware of that and adequately prepare to avoid it.

[ATK]

We (coaches) make it difficult, it doesn't "fit" the athletes natural "feel" because it is set-up wrong AND THEN we blame the athlete...

I agree with this. Handoffs are not easy, but they really are not that hard. Coaches bring un natural and many times, unnecessary structure to the relay.

On the other hand claiming that it only takes one practice. Then going to a meet and executing perfectly is more luck than anything.

[dfj]

hye

yes maybe i "over stated" but it did happen..

and it wasn't a matter of "luck" the three that did the practice knew, based on how we set the exchanges up, that they would be "close" no matter what..

i didn't see the result/race but they said they were not "perfect" .. but were able to "slow" slightly, outgoing or drive harder with the incoming... to make the exchange happen close to mid zone.

they did have competition.. one of the other relay had two of the country's top sprinters, plus a top junior, but had poor hand offs..

work with the athletes "feel" not against it.. work with the science not against it…

dfj

[DJG]

So what do other countries with consistently successful handoffs in international competitions, do differently in preparation?
(I know, it's probably a state secret guarded by all those country's intelligence services, which they won't share with the CIA )

Do they simply have better psychiatric advisors? Is it all in the head, not in endless practices?

One thing they don't do is use subs in the prelims and lose a valuable chance to compete against good competition. In Daegu, of the 16 men and women 4x1's in the finals, only Jamaica and the US used any subs, and only the US used two.

Drummond actually believes he needs to keep his line-up a secret so that others will not gain a "competitive advantage". I find that hilarious.

[DJG]

This analysis fails to mention that other countries, excluding Jamaica, must use their exchanges to make up for lack of foot speed if they are to have any chance at a medal.
They must attempt riskier exchanges.

I wrote that article. While this may be quite true, the data set I have does not show that correlation. The essential problem for those countries is that you can't medal if you don't take chances, but you can't medal if you don't get the stick around the track.

I sure wish Drummond was like Van Commenee, who has said he'll resign after the Olympics if the team performance is not good enough.

I also think it's foolish to believe the Jamaicans are incapable of goofing up an exchange. I also think their coaches are quite aware of that and adequately prepare to avoid it.

Wasn't suggesting your data showed that other countries must take greater risks with their exchanges, just that it should be kept in mind while analysing the failure rate of those countries.

Everyone, including Jamaica, is more than capable of a bad exchange. But I'm not wishing that on the Jamaicans or anyone else for that matter.

[Powell]

So what do other countries with consistently successful handoffs in international competitions, do differently in preparation?

Polish national teams do all training camps as a group. That's at least a couple of months every year that they spend practicing handoffs, as opposed to a few days for the Americans.

[ATK]

So what do other countries with consistently successful handoffs in international competitions, do differently in preparation?

Polish national teams do all training camps as a group. That's at least a couple of months every year that they spend practicing handoffs, as opposed to a few days for the Americans.

A couple of months a year? Do you mean a couple of days every month?

[Powell]

A couple of months a year? Do you mean a couple of days every month?

No, I don't. Training camps, especially warm weather training in the winter, will normally last 2 or 3 weeks at a time, during which time they will be practicing handoffs every day. And they do a few of those every year.

[DJG]

I see that Germany's men's 4x1 broke their national record on Friday night (38.02).

“I can’t even understand it myself,” Reus told Leichtathletik.de. “For a run like that, absolutely everything has to be just right. I have flirted with dipping under 10.20 before, but a time like that surprises even me.” Behind Reus, Unger clocked 10.20, Jakubczyk 10.25 and Kasenkow 10.31.

10.09 + 10.20 + 10.25 + 10.31 = 40.85- 38.02 = 2.85

pretty good on the exchanges!

Was this done against competition?

[norunner]

@DJG: There were two canadian teams in the race who ran 38.43 and 38.59. According to an interview the 38.02 race wasn't even perfect, they think they could have run faster.

Regarding practice: The german relays had mandatory training camps in April in the US and two weeks in july. Considering they have been doing this for several years now, they have had little success at world championsships, DNF both in 2009 and 2011. They did however win medals at the last two european championships against other teams with faster individual runners.

The german women also had similar mandatory relay camps and still managed to screw up the race in Weinheim. So even all the practice in the world doesn't guarantee success.

[DJG]

@DJG: There were two canadian teams in the race who ran 38.43 and 38.59. According to an interview the 38.02 race wasn't even perfect, they think they could have run faster.

Regarding practice: The german relays had mandatory training camps in April in the US and two weeks in july. Considering they have been doing this for several years now, they have had little success at world championsships, DNF both in 2009 and 2011. They did however win medals at the last two european championships against other teams with faster individual runners.

Even with a sub-38 Germany will not likely medal in London. But I would guess that they would go for broke and really try to nail their exchanges in the hope of beating the odds.

The german women also had similar mandatory relay camps and still managed to screw up the race in Weinheim. So even all the practice in the world doesn't guarantee success.

And very limited practice doesn't guarantee success as we saw with the American women in Monaco. Exchanges are difficult. That's why I have been saying "no subs" for the 4x1's.

[norunner]

[Even with a sub-38 Germany will not likely medal in London. But I would guess that they would go for broke and really try to nail their exchanges in the hope of beating the odds.

There has only been ONE 4x1 race ever where a sub 38 wasn't good enough for a medal, that was Osaka 2007. On paper Jamaica, US and Trinidad (maybe even St. Kitts & Nevis) should go below 38 seconds, but i would bet a lot of money on the fact that at least one of those three will screw up, leaving the third place wide open to a lot of teams. Osaka 2007 was also the last time both the US and Jamaican relays managed to finish the race.

[26mi235]

I see that Germany's men's 4x1 broke their national record on Friday night (38.02).

“I can’t even understand it myself,” Reus told Leichtathletik.de. “For a run like that, absolutely everything has to be just right. I have flirted with dipping under 10.20 before, but a time like that surprises even me.” Behind Reus, Unger clocked 10.20, Jakubczyk 10.25 and Kasenkow 10.31.

10.09 + 10.20 + 10.25 + 10.31 = 40.85- 38.02 = 2.85

pretty good on the exchanges!

Was this done against competition?

This [individual marks - X = Relay Mark] is the dominate metric, but it is an inconsistently appropriate one. If all of the sprinters are great starters, then this is very good, but if all of them are poor starters (but one), then the relay provides an immediate gain of a several tenths of a second. Also, the top teams have specialist in the 100 and they work their training very hard and they race at a high level often. Thos on a team evn as good as Germany are rarely so practiced at the 100, have many fewer top-level attempts and the marks are from secondary (slower) tracks (the number of peaked attempts on fast tracks are many fewer).

Also, the difficulty of handoffs goes up rapidly with speed, so that what can be easily done at 40-43 seconds (as is often cited for high school and youth teams, except in many cases we are talking as much as 50 seconds) does not really apply to running 37 seconds. For instance, the exchange zone is effectively 10%+ shorter, as is the acceleration zone, and the time interval for the exchange is shorter. Further, the extreme level of effort is higher as these guys can get more out of their body and thus the body is under more stress. The German case, aside from the issue of good/poor starters is the most relevant case but for the US to get it so 'good' we are talking about a mark that is close to 37-flat and there is a difference between that and 38.02.

[DJG]

[Even with a sub-38 Germany will not likely medal in London. But I would guess that they would go for broke and really try to nail their exchanges in the hope of beating the odds.

There has only been ONE 4x1 race ever where a sub 38 wasn't good enough for a medal, that was Osaka 2007. On paper Jamaica, US and Trinidad (maybe even St. Kitts & Nevis) should go below 38 seconds, but i would bet a lot of money on the fact that at least one of those three will screw up, leaving the third place wide open to a lot of teams. Osaka 2007 was also the last time both the US and Jamaican relays managed to finish the race.

And which is most likely to screw up?

Hint: The team that uses two-subs in the prelims.
I hope all eight teams in the finals run fast and break their national records.

[DJG]

This [individual marks - X = Relay Mark] is the dominate metric, but it is an inconsistently appropriate one. If all of the sprinters are great starters, then this is very good, but if all of them are poor starters (but one), then the relay provides an immediate gain of a several tenths of a second. Also, the top teams have specialist in the 100 and they work their training very hard and they race at a high level often. Thos on a team evn as good as Germany are rarely so practiced at the 100, have many fewer top-level attempts and the marks are from secondary (slower) tracks (the number of peaked attempts on fast tracks are many fewer).

Also, the difficulty of handoffs goes up rapidly with speed, so that what can be easily done at 40-43 seconds (as is often cited for high school and youth teams, except in many cases we are talking as much as 50 seconds) does not really apply to running 37 seconds. For instance, the exchange zone is effectively 10%+ shorter, as is the acceleration zone, and the time interval for the exchange is shorter. Further, the extreme level of effort is higher as these guys can get more out of their body and thus the body is under more stress. The German case, aside from the issue of good/poor starters is the most relevant case but for the US to get it so 'good' we are talking about a mark that is close to 37-flat and there is a difference between that and 38.02.

I don't have a clue what these four German runners do as regards their open 100 competitions.
So maybe they don't get a chance to run much and when they do it is against mid-level competition on slow tracks. (Who knew Germany was so backward).
I do know that their new National 4x1 record was quite an achievement given the times stated in the article for their 100 times.
Yes, for bad starters the fly start on the relay helps. (several tenths? as in .3 to .7 each? doubt it.)
Yes, at faster speeds the exchanges are more difficult, but most of the added difficulty comes as a result of trying to pass early when the differences in the speeds of the incoming and outgoing runners are greatest. Passing later in the zone when their relative speeds are closer
to each other makes for smoother, faster exchanges. IMO.
No these Germans won't beat the Jamaicans. But will their exchanges be better? Until we get
stats for each country on baton-times through the zone, this matrix for comparing relays is still a fair gauge at measuring relay potential.
The US men's 4x1 hasn't come nearly as close to their relay potential for some time now.
Why? I know, beacuse exchanges are so difficult at these stressful speeds....PLEEEASE!