Paris DL: w400—Montsho 49.77

[26mi235]

Small sample properties. Way too much is made off of really thin statistical base. You are defining the criteria upon observing a particular case. If you take the top ten or so of a lot of things and then add a random component, the likelihood that a first order statistic from the group will be the one with the most extreme outcome on the random component even if they are not the 'highest' ranked without that random component.

[mump boy]

Small sample properties. Way too much is made off of really thin statistical base. You are defining the criteria upon observing a particular case. If you take the top ten or so of a lot of things and then add a random component, the likelihood that a first order statistic from the group will be the one with the most extreme outcome on the random component even if they are not the 'highest' ranked without that random component.

Come again

[26mi235]

This conclusion on "O" is based on two observations. There is too much possibility of random factors affecting the race to draw the conclusion that she is a 'big meet performer', especially since she was so abysmal in the 4x400 [but finally ran a great one at WIC].

[mump boy]

This conclusion on "O" is based on two observations. There is too much possibility of random factors affecting the race to draw the conclusion that she is a 'big meet performer', especially since she was so abysmal in the 4x400 [but finally ran a great one at WIC].

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'

Her previous relay performances can probably be explained by her coach (who is now UK relay coach !!) who once told me 'the relay doesn't matter'

[ATK]

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'

How do you define always?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but for the 7 "big" meets she has competed in(OG, WC, CG) I have 3 "good" performances and 4 "bad" performances

[26mi235]

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'
'

On the other hand, she has ONLY done it twice, and has failed in other champs (where was she in 2011?). You need to understand the notion of 'small sample properties', especially when you selectively chose the sample.

[Flumpy]

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'

How do you define always?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but for the 7 "big" meets she has competed in(OG, WC, CG) I have 3 "good" performances and 4 "bad" performances

Presumably by 'good' you mean a Gold medal whereas I think mump is making the point that apart from 2011 where she false started she has always set her seasons best at the major therefore is a big meet performer.

If we only count winning as performing well then Sanya's had a dismal career

[mump boy]

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'

How do you define always?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but for the 7 "big" meets she has competed in(OG, WC, CG) I have 3 "good" performances and 4 "bad" performances

She has set a PB/SB at EVERY major champs she has ever attended (except last year when she was DQ'd in the heat and 05 when main focus was under 23's where she medalled and SB'd)

This includes

03 European Juniors Bronze Medal in PB
04 Her first Olympics age of 20 she reaches Semi and runs PB
05 Silver medal at EU23 SB
05 World champs Semi (bronze in relay)
06 Gold Medal at Commonwealth Games PB
07 Gold Medal at World Championships PB (bronze in relay)
08 Gold Medal at Olympic Games SB 0.01 off PB
09 5th place at World Championships (while injured) SB
11 DQ

I only see 1 'bad' performance there and that's because she didn't get to run

[Gabriella]

It's not about being selective and to talk about small sample properties is rather silly; if an athlete is lucky enough to have a career that spans 10 years, the most championships they'll be able to contend will be 10, and for most it will be less, as Global championships are not every year. Looking at athletics stats in champs will ALWAYS be about small sample properties.

CO's international career started in 2004 when she was 20, and she has had a possible 9 major championship opportunities. In Daegu was was DQ and in Barcelona she DNS, so out of the other 7, she ran SBs in EVERY one of the championships apart from the 2005 Wch, where her focus was the European Under 23 the previous month. 6/7 champs in SBs is a great performance whichever way you look at it.

2011 Wch Daegu - DQ
2010 Ech Barcelona - DNS
2009 Wch Berlin - 50.21 (SB)
2008 Oly Beijing - 49.62 (SB)
2007 Wch Osaka - 49.61 (SB/PB)
2006 CWG Melbourne - 50.28 (SB/PB)
2005 EU23 Erfurt - 50.73 (SB) & Wch Helsinki 51.43
2004 Oly Athens - 50.50 (SB/PB)

All mump is pointing out is that none of the other women have quite the same record of SBs at a major champs. We're not bigging her up for no reason; CO knocks chunks off her SBs in a championships. The other significant fact is that her best of 49.6 medals in every major champs this decade.

Whether that will be enough to medal in London, who knows, but we are allowed to be a little bit excited and positive about her form this season, especially as she will be running on home turf.

[Gabriella]

oops mumps! Great mids and all that!

[mump boy]

oops mumps! Great mids and all that!

I'd call it plagiarism

[26mi235]

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'

How do you define always?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but for the 7 "big" meets she has competed in(OG, WC, CG) I have 3 "good" performances and 4 "bad" performances

Presumably by 'good' you mean a Gold medal whereas I think mump is making the point that apart from 2011 where she false started she has always set her seasons best at the major therefore is a big meet performer.

If we only count winning as performing well then Sanya's had a dismal career

She had her season best at the big meet, except for when she didn't.... When you have small samples (two) and then the third sample does not match the conclusion and is ignored as irrelevant then you can see why anyone with a statistics background is unimpressed with the conclusion that is drawn by the proponents.

A similar case is SAFP, with the claim that she always is at the top when it matters, ..., except for when she isn't. I also note that she was beaten by a woman who has equaled or exceeded expectations at every world championships she has run in and here the sample is slightly larger at four and without any exceptions.

[mump boy]

I would have thought it was easy to conclude, considering she ALWAYS 'performs' at 'big meets'

How do you define always?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but for the 7 "big" meets she has competed in(OG, WC, CG) I have 3 "good" performances and 4 "bad" performances

Presumably by 'good' you mean a Gold medal whereas I think mump is making the point that apart from 2011 where she false started she has always set her seasons best at the major therefore is a big meet performer.

If we only count winning as performing well then Sanya's had a dismal career

She had her season best at the big meet, except for when she didn't.... When you have small samples (two) and then the third sample does not match the conclusion and is ignored as irrelevant then you can see why anyone with a statistics background is unimpressed with the conclusion that is drawn by the proponents.

A similar case is SAFP, with the claim that she always is at the top when it matters, ..., except for when she isn't. I also note that she was beaten by a woman who has equaled or exceeded expectations at every world championships she has run in and here the sample is slightly larger at four and without any exceptions.

I have no idea what you're on about !!

Whatever you choose to deduce with statistical models we all know that TBO is a big time performer

[nevetsllim]

Seven out of Christine Ohuruogu's eight fastest times have been achieved at major champs. The other time was achieved at the World Athletics Final. Anyone who says she isn't a champs performer is wrong.

[Flumpy]

Now where were we???

[errolM]

She's also low-key now. Less expectation on her at any time since 2008, Jess being "The Face" and Sanya running as well as she is all contribute to a lower profile and I suspect she's very happy with that.

I predict that she'll acquit herself well. Medal? Definitely maybe? Gold? Long shot, but.... and more importantly, Sanya knows the "but" too

[errolM]

Sorry, double post. Curse you F5!

[Blues]

Now where were we???

I agree that CO ran a very nice race, but not so fast Flumpy... You're probably not a betting man, but I'll wager you an internet gift certificate to your favorite UK pub that Amantle finishes ahead of Christine in their next race when the weather isn't crazy rainy and cold (59F/15C) like it was today in London... (Although I realize that the weather during the Olympics in London could very well be similar or worse...)

[Flumpy]

I suspect you're right but has the weather got to do with anything. Why would Montsho be more likely to win with the sun shining. The reason she lost today was because Christine committed to the first 200m but was still strong in the home straight. With 80,000 people cheering her on in London is her doing the same again out of the question?

I've not once predicted that TBO will get a medal, my point has always been that she will find her form at the right time and should never been discounted.

[Blues]

I suspect you're right but has the weather got to do with anything. Why would Montsho be more likely to win with the sun shining. The reason she lost today was because Christine committed to the first 200m but was still strong in the home straight. With 80,000 people cheering her on in London is her doing the same again out of the question?

I've not once predicted that TBO will get a medal, my point has always been that she will find her form at the right time and should never been discounted.

You make valid points, but it's also a fact that some athletes are more acclimated to competing in colder, wetter climates than others are. It's not just coincidence that the Jamaican high school teams often aren't able to be quite as dominant over the US teams at the Penn Relays during the years when the weather is unusually cold and rainy in Philadelphia in late April. For the same reason, elite athletes who may not be as accustomed to training and competing in colder, rainy weather may find it a little more difficult to do so. If I'm not mistaken, Montsho still trains in Dakar, where the average daily high temperature during the coldest month of the year is about 25C (77F).

[Flumpy]

Thankfully the Olympics are going to be held in London where it's going to look pretty much like this