¶2012OT mDec—Ashton Eaton 9039 WR!!!!!

[unclezadok]

I'm pretty sure he has not maxed out in the 400m, the HJ, the PV, the hurdles, all 3 throws, and the 1500m.

[lonewolf]

I doubt Clay has PBed for all eternity in every event but it will be hard to match or improve on all of em on any two consecutive days..
I do predict we will have a long wait to see another 27 foot decathlon LJ.

[bruce3404]

He may have maxed out his 100, LJ, 400, and 1500. His HJ seems oddly and consistently below his best. Yeah his throws can probably continue to improve with technique as they have already.

Why is he maxed out in the 1500? I agree that his potential to increase his score is much higher in the throws, but I'd still expect him to lower his 1500 PR by a couple of seconds sooner or later.

I don't at all believe he's maxed out in the 1500. A couple of examples: During his first WR in the heptathlon, he lowered his 1000 time by 5.5 seconds in order to beat the WR (a race that also featured Curtis Beach). At Daegu, in a heated battle for the silver, he lowered his PR in the 1500 by 2 seconds, which was just enough to clinch silver. And in Eugene, with a world record on the line, he chopped a further 4 seconds from his deca PR. He paced himself very well and brought home just a little more than he needed. I'm sure there's more in the tank, but we might not see it unless there's a medal position or WR in play.

[Dave]

He may have maxed out his 100, LJ, 400, and 1500. His HJ seems oddly and consistently below his best. Yeah his throws can probably continue to improve with technique as they have already.

Why is he maxed out in the 1500? I agree that his potential to increase his score is much higher in the throws, but I'd still expect him to lower his 1500 PR by a couple of seconds sooner or later.

"He may have maxed out his..." I have no idea if he has maxed those events out or not. I especially think he has room to improve in the PV.

[gibson]

eaton in the near future

10 Jav 193'-1 (721) +100
9 Disc 140'-5 (722) +100
8 SP 46'-7 (741) +100
7 HJ 6'8 (850) +50
6 1500 4:14 (850) 0
5 400 46.7 (973) +50
4 PV 17'4 (1004) 0
3 110H 13.70 (1014) +50
2 100 10.21 (1044) 0
1 LJ 27'-0 (1120) 0

9039 WR!!!!!!!!! = 9479!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[bambam]

eaton in the near future

10 Jav 193'-1 (721) +100
9 Disc 140'-5 (722) +100
8 SP 46'-7 (741) +100
7 HJ 6'8 (850) +50
6 1500 4:14 (850) 0
5 400 46.7 (973) +50
4 PV 17'4 (1004) 0
3 110H 13.70 (1014) +50
2 100 10.21 (1044) 0
1 LJ 27'-0 (1120) 0

9039 WR!!!!!!!!! = 9479!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But you're assuming he's going to LJ 27-0 and 100 in 10.21 - which is a very long shot for him to duplicate those in the same competition, and better all those other marks.

[Mike Hout]

Progress is, indeed, a hard thing to predict. But, like many others, I love dreaming of what Ashton can do in the future.

He most certainly has come a long way. In case you haven't seen it, look up "ashton eaton's first pole vault competition as an ou freshman" in youtube. It is something to watch him do that front flip over the bar at 10'6".

[j-a-m]

And in Eugene, with a world record on the line, he chopped a further 4 seconds from his deca PR. He paced himself very well and brought home just a little more than he needed.

Yeah that's what I thought as well. He always seemed to know exactly what he was doing.

[Jackaloupe]

Not only matching those sterling PRs, never a given, but those capriciously arbitrary "100" points in all 3 Weights: That's ~50' in SP, unlikely with the current "shuffle", nor trim weight; ~155' in Discus, a bit of a stretch; and >210' in Jav, maybe easier to attain as a PR, but hard to "pull" off in a given competition given Jav's greater variability. To get himself up to these levels, AE would have to modify his current conservative styles in SP (no "Glide", just a Masters-like Shuffle) and Jav (No runup, per se, just a long series of slower CrossSteps, a trade-off between consistency and speed). As one experienced Coach, in the stands, commented AE's an athlete who excels in speed and quickness; he should put it to use in Javelin. [Conceded, no one runs up full speed but as in HJ, it's a conversion process.]

All that said, PV is indeed an event where AE's controlled speed is a major advantage, along with his proven "leaping" abilit-- even if Pole Vaulter's no longer rely on the old leap/swing used w/ aluminum poles (more on driving pole into box and timing the bend/swing). Given those two perfect vaults (520/17' and 530/17'4"), AE gives every sign of 18' potential, with "stabilizing" ~520/530 a safe bet.

Most speculation here has been via a series of PRs/near PRs. It'd be more productive to review the levels AE has already stabilized, i.e. established as reliable base levels, e.g. 10.3_ 100m, 8m LJ, 14m+ SP, near 2.10 HJ, sub 46 400m, 13.3_ HH, near 45m D, 5.25 PV, near 60 m J, 4:20 1500.
Then toss in a coupla PRs, or even near PRs and whatever's needed in the 1500, and 'voila' WR.

[Grasshopper]

Should Eaton now be given the title of "World's Greatest Athlete"? Some people (including ESPN, apparently) believe so. I'm curious to hear your opinions on this side-thread I started: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=47281.

[proofs in the pudd'in]

Wasn't Roman's WR a little off his potential, particualrly in the PV? He had 4.80 when he has done much better. I think even with a 4.90 he would still have the WR. Everyone is talking about AE's perfomance as if it was way beyond anything - they rigthly should be talking about it but Roman's performance is just as incredible - yet the hype seemed/s absent. The difference in attention would seem to warrant a performace that broke the WR by 200 points. Before we crown him GOAT let him put up more 8,800's - which I am sure he will do - until then I still think Roman is GOAT. But not for long.

Ashton may never repeat that again. Also, most of the events were in light rain and the wind was not a factor. Some might argue that performing in cooler conditions actually help rather than say mid 80s or 90s with humid windy conditions - sometimes the heat can wear you down faster than cool conditions. Plus let's not underestimate the home crowd advantage - that has got to be a boost particualrly in the last event. Weather like that seems more psychological than anything - heck I used love playing in the rain never slowed me down.

All around - a magnificant and stellar performance.

[Jackaloupe]

performing in cooler conditions actually help rather than say mid 80s or 90s with humid windy conditions

You obviously weren't there: Cooler was the least of it, as the HJ was puddled and had to be squeejeed off several times (See Open HJ, which suffered despite better conditions, merely damp and cool). Then it rained before and during the 400: the All-weather track was OK, but still...AE has shown he can run sub-46 nearly at will. In fact, he replicated the last two events the week before, at the Harry Jerome Meet in Vancouver, jumping a PR 211/6'11", which I'd expect him to replicate, then ran 45.68. No way his 100m plus a single LJ, to say nothing of 3 shuffling SPs had taken much out of him (at least physically) before the final two events, which are plenty tough.

The above is a good argument for choosing Eugene, over the South, Midwest or even the East for the OT (Decathlon used to be held separate; maybe Eugene could make a separate bid, as the Nat'l Decathlon has a long tradition of being awarded to the hometown of the OlyChamp (Tulare for Bob Mathias, Kingsburg for Rafer johnson, twice each if memory serves), or budding Champs (Milt Campbell, Plainfield; Charley Pratt, Palmyra, NJ).

[gibson]

right, ashton may never beat his world record. anything can happen, nothing is a given.

still at the end of the day, for ashton to go 9400, all he needs is that improved throwing and a performance like we just saw in perfect conditions.

and that could happen. i give it 50/50.

[olorin]

Eaton potential (or Eaton and Nool)

The decathlete that remind most of Eaton is the Estonian Erki Nool. Both of them are of similar height (1.84 and 1.85) and weight (84 and 85 Kg), but more importantly they are similar in their athletic abilities. In many aspects Eaton is a faster version of Erki Nool.

Both Eaton and Nool are very fast (Nool PB in the 100 is 10.34), both wonderful long jumper (Nool PB 8.22) and Both are very good in the 400 (Nool 46.23). On the other side of the spectrum they both have relatively weak throws. Nool PB in the SP is 15.11 (slightly better than Eaton) and his PB in DT is 45.28 (slightly worse than Eaton).
There are three events that Eaton is much better than Nool - the 110h (Nool respectable 14.37) the 1500 (4:34) and HJ that was always Nool nemesis (PB of 2.05 usually around 2.00).

But in two events Nool’s PB is far superior than that of our golden boy - the PV and the JT. Nool was a wonderful vaulter jumping 5.30 at the age of 19. Throughout his career he jumped in the 5.50 zone (PB 5.60). Even more interesting is his marks in JT. He started like Eaton throwing sub 60. At the age of 25 he improves to 65.00 and when he reached his prime (when he was thirty) he improve his PB to 71.91!

If Eaton can achive similar marks (for example 5.50 and 69.00) he will improve his potential by ~200 points on his way to become a legend.

[TrackCEO]

A comment on the Letsrun.com message board makes the point that USATF policy is to send the most athletes possible to Olympics, and hence should give Bryan Clay a chance to get a higher score before July 8 IOC deadline: http://www.letsrun.com/2012/clay-0628.php

K E N

[Jackaloupe]

Give it a rest, Ken. Ain't gonna happen--neither the hoked-up Decathlon, nor 8200 pts. by Clay. BTW, how many Decathletes does it take to make it "official". Maybe Curtis Beach could spring back (he "flopped" in the jumps); he deserves a chance, too. That would pose a real dilemma, eh?

[Grasshopper]

Give it a rest, Ken. Ain't gonna happen--neither the hoked-up Decathlon, nor 8200 pts. by Clay. BTW, how many Decathletes does it take to make it "official". Maybe Curtis Beach could spring back (he "flopped" in the jumps); he deserves a chance, too. That would pose a real dilemma, eh?

Yes, Ken, please stop posting comments and links relevant to the topic at-hand.

[dbirds]

http://www.letsrun.com/2012/clay-0628.php

There is still hope for Clay!!

[gh]

USATF can't do anything about it; the deadline is set by the USOC.

[aaronk]

Students, scholars of Dec history, please respond!

In 1963, C.K. Yang scored 9121 pts under an old scoring system.
It was soon thereafter changed to become 8009 pts.
I believe the change in scoring tables was done at least partially because of Yang's record.
9121 was so far ahead of everyone else, they wanted to give others a chance.

Was that the case??
The reason....or one of them....that the tables were revised??

If so, and if Ashton Eaton were to improve significantly on his 9039 WR........say, to 9200 or 9400......would the powers-that-be then seek to change the tables .......to bring Eaton's score down to earth???

If that's the case, maybe they should change the Hept tables too.
JJK's 7291 will likely never be surpassed.
No one has come close!!
I'd thought Carolina Kluft might do it, but after reaching 7000 pts, she abandoned the Hept to be a LJ'er!!

Anyway, your thoughts??

[Jackaloupe]

Without dipping into Zarnoski's (sp?) book, I can assure you that the "quantum leap" in the Pole Vault, where Yang excelled, was a major motivation. Bob Richards (OlyChamp in PV and Decathlon Champ (1954..) before the Milt Campbell/Rafer Johnson era) would win the event circa 15 ft., on an aluminum pole. Fibreglass poles changed all that, w/ ludicrous Decathlon scores for top vaulters. Note the contrast between current PV marks--where anything under 15' is subpar-- and the sluggish 11+'s in 100m by most of the field.

Relative prominence of quality PV and HJ (also due to new technique) reflects how the typical Decathlete profile had changed, from a Milt/Rafer--both of whom had world clase times in Hurdles, w/ Rafer actually making the 1956 Oly Team in LJ, w/ 25'4"--to a more all-round type like Bill Toomey (the first to even up scores , incl. 1500m), Bruce Jenner et al.

[ Milt, of course, broke the World Record in 110m HH, finally taking down Jack Davis's 13.5 to 13.4 (Compton, CA, 1957)]

Yang also excelled in Javelin, with Rafer even stronger. The new tables tightened up the scoring in those events, subject to a wide range of discrepancy between a world class performer and a typical Decathlete.

And don't forget: the Scoring Tables are widely used for other types of comparisons, however unofficial, e.g. Mac Wilkins as (still) the best all-around WeightMan (no Hammer, thank Thor!)

[Marlow]

Without dipping into Zarnowski's book

Which I was delighted to see is featured at the Duck (UO) Store on the front table!!!

[Jackaloupe]

The new one? I have the original, but this one sounds more detailed. Gonna use my little USATF Discount Coupon to pick it up ($40 list). He's amazing, eh?

[bambam]

Without dipping into Zarnoski's (sp?) book, I can assure you that the "quantum leap" in the Pole Vault, where Yang excelled, was a major motivation. Bob Richards (OlyChamp in PV and Decathlon Champ (1954..) before the Milt Campbell/Rafer Johnson era) would win the event circa 15 ft., on an aluminum pole. Fibreglass poles changed all that, w/ ludicrous Decathlon scores for top vaulters. Note the contrast between current PV marks--where anything under 15' is subpar-- and the sluggish 11+'s in 100m by most of the field.

Pretty certain that the problem was the fiberglass pole and inflation of marks in the PV. They had to adjust that event for the new pole and new marks people were achieving. In fact, I seem to recall that Yang's PV mark in his WR was off the tables and he maxed it out.

[Per Andersen]

[ Milt, of course, broke the World Record in 110m HH, finally taking down Jack Davis's 13.5 to 13.4 (Compton, CA, 1957)

Not really. Jack Davis's 110 WR was 13.4 from 1956 and lasted until 1959. Campbell set a world best,13.4 in the 120 yards in '57.

[Dave]

Any predictions for London?

I'll go with the following not terribly brave predictions:

1) Eaton 9000(his throws continue to improve but he won't quite match the 100/lj pbs)
2) Hardee 8750
3) the Cuban guy around 8500

[bruce3404]

Any predictions for London?

I'll go with the following not terribly brave predictions:

1) Eaton 9000(his throws continue to improve but he won't quite match the 100/lj pbs)
2) Hardee 8750
3) the Cuban guy around 8500

Seems about right, Dave, though I'll go with Eaton at 8925, with Hardee a distant second and Suarez (the Cuban guy) a further distant third. While I fully expect Eaton to someday break his own WR, I have to also respect what an amazing meet he had this past week and realize that such an effort won't be easily replicated in London.

[Dave]

Any predictions for London?

I'll go with the following not terribly brave predictions:

1) Eaton 9000(his throws continue to improve but he won't quite match the 100/lj pbs)
2) Hardee 8750
3) the Cuban guy around 8500

Seems about right, Dave, though I'll go with Eaton at 8925, with Hardee a distant second and Suarez (the Cuban guy) a further distant third. While I fully expect Eaton to someday break his own WR, I have to also respect what an amazing meet he had this past week and realize that such an effort won't be easily replicated in London.

I know I suggested that we might not see Eaton match this meet. However, I truly believe that there is plenty more where the 9039 came from. His indoor record shows that he just keeps improving.

[unclezadok]

I would predict Eaton's next decathlon, conservatively, as around 9125, with fewer points in the 100m, LJ, and PV.

[Mighty Favog]

Eaton potential (or Eaton and Nool)

The decathlete that remind most of Eaton is the Estonian Erki Nool. Both of them are of similar height (1.84 and 1.85) and weight (84 and 85 Kg), but more importantly they are similar in their athletic abilities. In many aspects Eaton is a faster version of Erki Nool.

I always thought the Erki Nool Fan Club was one of the great simultaneously strange and cool things in track and field.

[26mi235]

I think Beach and Detmer deliberately paced themselves to assure Eaton ran the requisite time to break the WR... classy move when they both backed off to let Eaton win..

I do not know Beach but Detmer is definitely a classy guy. He was a walk-on long sprinter/600 guy at Wisconsin (from a small town 20mi north of Madison) and did not get a scholarship until late. He finally convinced his coaches to let him do the multis by his junior year, although I think I might remember him starting to do some vaults his sophomore year (I officiate the vault at most Wisconsin meets). His senior year he broke the Hept 1000 WR at 2:29 [now Beach's record] to take a surprise fourth place at NCAAs then he ran 4:04 after a slow start (he thinks he could have broken 4:00) to take 2nd at the NCAA Decathlon.

He was an engineering major that made First Team Academic All-American with a pretty high GPA (his teammate, also a decathlon guy who was leading the Big Ten Deca until a NH in the PV, was the NCAA Academic All-American with a 4.0 in his first year of med school, and also a walk-on).

I look forward to seeing him again and getting his comments.

Interesting that Eaton, one of the best ever at 1000m in the Hept should be paced by the two fastest 1000/Hept guys in history.

My thanks to all those (especially Decafan) who posted here. I was out of touch for the week and not able to post until briefly late last night, and have just gotten to this rather long thread [which also had a nice dearth of negativity, unlike some others here during the Trials].

[26mi235]

The difference being that Beamon, MJ, and Bolt all obliterated the WR's whereas Eaton must barely topped it, which is only to say that this highlights how underrated Sebrle's WR and greatness was.

Beamon's 'WR' was with an "A" and most likely "w" as well [officially 2.0, but all the wind readings from that one guy were rounded (down) to the nearest integer, see long thread on this], so it was significantly less Beamonesque and than the status it has been given.

Of course it is only speculation, but the HJ and 400 were adversely affected but the 1500 was helped by the weather and the competition. His composite PRs will almost certainly move him into #2 in that metric, probably in 2012. Plus, he is a great competitor in these types of circumstances, although he still has something to show in the big show [WIC is way different in that two collegiate guys who have not yet hit strong Deca scores would have been second and third in Turkey].

I expect him to continue to improve his throws and he has been improving in the 100/110h/400/HJ while improving his throws so far, so he has not yet hit the ultimate trade-off limitation point. He might have to get lucky, but 92xx could be in his future.

[unclezadok]

I've been assuming like most people that Eaton will never top the 27 ft LJ. However, considering the weather in Eugene, his age, and his rate of improvement, it's probably at least as likely that he will do 28 feet in a decathlon.

[Dave]

I've been assuming like most people that Eaton will never top the 27 ft LJ. However, considering the weather in Eugene, his age, and his rate of improvement, it's probably at least as likely that he will do 28 feet in a decathlon.

I agree. This guy could either never score 9000 again or could score 9300.

[26mi235]

I've been assuming like most people that Eaton will never top the 27 ft LJ. However, considering the weather in Eugene, his age, and his rate of improvement, it's probably at least as likely that he will do 28 feet in a decathlon.

I agree. This guy could either never score 9000 again [just like everyone else in the world, with only one who actually did the 9000 thing] or could score 9300 [like no one else].