¶2012OT m5000—Galen Rupp 13:22.67 MR

[bobguild76]

Wow! What a finish!! Ya gotta think closing in 52, and coming back on Bernard Lagat has to take Rupp to a new place mentally. I think Lagat is still the best, but now we have two who can do it in London. Way to go Rupp! Way to go Lagat!

And the best part is I could stream it in SA ... usually the bandwidth limitations means it goes buffer, buffer ... a little bit of video - buffer, buffer ... a little bit of video. But tonight (it is 5AM now) I got to watch the whole thing. YEA!!

[odelltrclan]

The race lived up to the hype. Amazing showing by Rupp. I was rooting for him mainly to get the monkey off his back for never having beaten Lagat. He finally did it. Hope they both show well in London. I hope Lagat wins gold after so many close calls.

[kuha]

Honestly, I see Rupp as superior to Lagat at this point. But we'll see.

Ahem. Some of us could see this finish quite some time ago.

The truth is that Rupp is not the same guy as he was a couple years ago...and neither is Lagat.

[bushop]

Will Rupp double in London?

[guru]

The truth is that Rupp is not the same guy as he was a couple years ago...and neither is Lagat.

I think that's right on both counts. But more Rupp than Lagat.

That was some damn impressive stuff from Rupp. He seems to have all the arrows in his quiver now.

[Master Po]

not making any predictions about London, but this is a pretty good USA 5k group. No big surprises here -- happy these three made it.

[odelltrclan]

Now maybe some folks will really believe Rupp is a medal contender, albeit probably in the 10,000. But who knows, it might be Farah, Rupp & Lagat in London in this event, in any order.

[doug5321]

Will Rupp double in London?

yes, salazar said the plan is to double in the olympics.
it makes sense as rupps best event the 10000 is first, then a few days of rest till the 5000 heats.

[kuha]

Honestly, I see Rupp as superior to Lagat at this point. But we'll see.

Just arrived Eugene in time for 5000 heats and 800 final; how much you want to wager on that Kuha? I'll buy all the beers Thursday night for you and your buddies (is G Hill one of them?) if Rupp beats Kip.....

Oh, yes...and I wish I was there to get my FREE BEERS!

[Randy Treadway]

Just got home, and I see the results. The names aren't surprising, but the times are. I'd expect times like that out of Rupp and Lagat if this was in New Orleans or Atlanta, but this is Eugene.
I'll read through the posts here to see if there's some explanation. Sit-and-kick isn't what I'd expect out of these guys. Well, maybe Lagat.

If I'd have predicted, I'd have said 13:05 for a winning time. The opposition overseas can go under 13:10 any time they want, so we still don't know what to expect out of Rupp and Lagat in London. Maybe the 10K took something out of Galen.

Although Rupp did nip Pre's OT record, can somebody provide comparitive split times? I'll bet Pre ran it totally different than tonight's race.

[jlt]

Honestly, I see Rupp as superior to Lagat at this point. But we'll see.

Just arrived Eugene in time for 5000 heats and 800 final; how much you want to wager on that Kuha? I'll buy all the beers Thursday night for you and your buddies (is G Hill one of them?) if Rupp beats Kip.....

Kuha how do I reach you?? I owe you some beers:) If you're here in Eugene can you text me on +491713167228? Cheers JT

[Dutra5]

Just got home, and I see the results. The names aren't surprising, but the times are. I'd expect times like that out of Rupp and Lagat if this was in New Orleans or Atlanta, but this is Eugene.
I'll read through the posts here to see if there's some explanation. Sit-and-kick isn't what I'd expect out of these guys. Well, maybe Lagat.

If I'd have predicted, I'd have said 13:05 for a winning time. The opposition overseas can go under 13:10 any time they want, so we still don't know what to expect out of Rupp and Lagat in London. Maybe the 10K took something out of Galen.

Although Rupp did nip Pre's OT record, can somebody provide comparitive split times? I'll bet Pre ran it totally different than tonight's race.

What would a 13:05 prove about what to expect out of Rupp, in particular, in London? He ran under 13:00 a month ago.

It was a great race.

[tm71]

Great performance by Galen Rupp to double in th 5 and 10 k. If if weren't for ashton eaton's WR in the deca he would have been the performer of the meet. However, for some reason I don't see him getting a medal in the Olympics. The 10 k is extremely competitive with three Kenyans, three ethiopians and local favorite Farrah. I think his chances are a little better in the 5 k but by the time of the 5k ends he would have run half a marathon. However I think
Lagat didnt look sharp at all in Eugene, but he will be ready to battle in the 5k final. and with Farrah and Rupp doubling he will have somewhat of an advantage.

[pickle47]

I got my cable hooked up this morning, just in time! Wow, what a race. As to the time, the first lap went over 70, so it was a jog for a couple of laps until Mo Trafeh took the pace and basically led until the last mile, when he was vacuumed up. So the middle laps were honest, but certainly not on any record pace.

I don't have the words to describe the last two laps, I'm sure NBC will post the finish on their site soon. One of the most exciting finishes I've seen in a long time. I will note this: The head on camera showing Rupp and Lagat coming up the straight is priceless. Lagat went by Rupp as they entered the stretch, got and half step, etc. And the whole time Rupps countenance never wavered. He looked relaxed, his face not straining as he simply continued to build his speed and eventually work his way back past Lagat, who was absolutely all out. An amazing last 400. My only concern is that Lagat is supposedly at 90% right now. Maybe Galen is, too. Who knows. The announcer quoted Salazar as saying that Rupp felt better today than at the start of the 10k. Scary.

[Randy Treadway]

What would a 13:05 prove about what to expect out of Rupp, in particular, in London? He ran under 13:00 a month ago.

I didn't know that, or had forgot it if I saw it somewhere. Good for him, he's up there in nosebleed territory now with the other nosebleeders.

I thought Rupp and Lagat would push each other tonight from the gun, but maybe neither was out to prove anything and didn't care which one between the two of them were to win- they were just assuring their Olympic team berth at 5K, at least until the bell lap. So sit-and-kick was low risk for them.
All this "smell a barnburner" talk was just that- talk.

I'll have to get out my Hungarian tables and see how Rupp's 10K OT time compares to his 5K OT time. I suspect that his 27:25 blows away his 13:22.... but then again his 26:48 PR blows away his 5K PR too- even if it *is* under 13:00.

[Dutra5]

What would a 13:05 prove about what to expect out of Rupp, in particular, in London? He ran under 13:00 a month ago.

I didn't know that, or had forgot it if I saw it somewhere. Good for him, he's up there in nosebleed territory now with the other nosebleeders.

I thought Rupp and Lagat would push each other tonight from the gun, but maybe neither was out to prove anything and didn't care which one between the two of them were to win- they were just assuring their Olympic team berth at 5K, at least until the bell lap. So sit-and-kick was low risk for them.
All this "smell a barnburner" talk was just that- talk.

I'll have to get out my Hungarian tables and see how Rupp's 10K OT time compares to his 5K OT time. I suspect that his 27:25 blows away his 13:22.... but then again his 26:48 PR blows away his 5K PR too- even if it *is* under 13:00.

Did you actually watch the event or do you figure you'll just look at finishing times, a couple of charts and decide how good the race was?

[Dutra5]

I don't have the words to describe the last two laps, I'm sure NBC will post the finish on their site soon.

http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/track- ... um=twitter

[Marlow]

Honestly, I see Rupp as superior to Lagat at this point. But we'll see.

Ahem. Some of us could see this finish quite some time ago.
The truth is that Rupp is not the same guy as he was a couple years ago...and neither is Lagat.

I'm so glad I didn't see that beer bet, cuz I woulda raised you for even more. I NEVER saw that coming, so majors kudos that you did. As they pulled into the homestretch I turned to my wife and said, "watch how Lagat buries Rupp now." After the finish I got the eye-roll that I HATE!!!

Anyway, AWESOME finish by Rupp, and I will never underestimate him (or Salazar) again. The crowd had a complete meltdown at the end. Whatta day!

[Alan Shank]

I have seen Lagat take the lead in the stretch and then lose it at least twice: 2004 Oly 1500 (El G) and 2009 WC 5000 (K Bekele). Rupp is in some seriously good company with that, although, of course, Lagat is older now.

About the same last 800 for Rupp as in the heats, but 24 seconds faster race, and more concentrated into the last lap, penultimate lap about 61.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[ExCoastRanger]

Barnburner indeed!
Rupp's stretch run was reminiscent of the finish to his 1500 PR at Oxy earlier this year (video on flotrack), when Farah and Andrews pulled away from him coming out of the turn but he hung on, surged over the last 20-30m and caught Andrews at the line.

More fun with the Oly Trials stats by Mr. Nakamura, linked on the front page:
Rupp broke Prefontaine's 40-year-old meet record...His margin of victory is the narrowest in Trials history...Fastest times ever for place for places 1-8...Seventh place Elliot Heath's 13:27.20 would have placed him in the top three in every Trials since 1984. Actually it could have won five of the last seven.

1 Galen Rupp Nike 13:22.67 M
2 Bernard Lagat Nike 13:22.82
3 Lopez Lomong Nike 13:24.47
4 Andrew Bumbalough Nike 13:26.67
5 Ryan Hill North Carolina State 13:27.49
6 Benjamin True Saucony 13:28.02
7 Elliott Heath Stanford 13:28.20
8 Hassan Mead Minnesota 13:30.21

[gibson]

on paper this is a very easy race to predict for place.

lagat, rupp and lamong in any order you like.
lagat because of his pedigree.
rupp because he's the man of the future and the moment.
lamong because he's got 332 1500 speed and he can convert it to the 5000m - on the right day.

the field has a couple of guys with decent 1500m times, so chances are that rupp and or lamong will take them out of the mix with a change in pace from a mile out.

no boys will be left in the man's race at the bell.

ok - time to commit, i gamble rupp for the win.

the secret of the above successful predicton?

luck. plus it is important to look with your own eyes and see the obvious.

of course rupp ran the killer OT 10k
preceeded by a killer 5 k - pre peak.
and a sharpening 1500 where rupp very nearly ran down both farah and andrews coming back in the stretch. look at the times, look at the closure.

add in the conjectures...
that lagat is probably not totally peaked because he can see that he can beat the #4 guy in his sleep.
and lagat is probably starting to slip just a little bit.

if rupp has one tune up race (in 3 weeks or something) for the OG and that goes well, it is on. go ahead and bet on rupp - but before you do consider.....

we should have a slightly better lagat, quite a bit better bekele and a super sharp farah.
and a random african or two to jump into the mix.

i can't think of a more exciting scenario than this!

[SQUACKEE]

First Kudos to Kuha, I don't know what a Kudo is but Kuha deserves em. I would have agreed with Kuha.....next year, not this year. We have one runner going up and one runner going down. They are criss crossing and at this moment are at a near dead heat, like we saw last night.

I know Salazar has been working on Rupp's kick and I have waited to see it, well IT'SS HEERRR! WOW! I was wrong in my prediction on this race but I will make another right now.

Ok, I am not making an excuse, just an observation. Of 99% of Lagat's 5,000's, he lays back in 4-5 place and then gets in position to strike with a couple to go. Last night he lead the move to catch the guy way out in front. Lagat basically "lead" the main pack for 5 laps, not his M.O. There is not a chance in Hell Lagat will be leading the race in London. The only time he will lead is if he wins in the last 60m.

I predict Lagat will medal in the 5,000 in London, and will place ahead of Rupp. At that point I would like some of Kuha's Kudos, if there are any left!

[DecFan]

Great race, great final 100. Rupp unquestionably is a player in both the 5k and 10k.

Lagat still has superior acceleration to any other 5k runner. But his top end speed - at least at this point in his training cycle - is not what it once was. Last night, he should have waited another 30m to make his move.

[pickle47]

Agreed about Lagat's acceleration, but when you already ran one 200 at 26-27, it's pretty difficult to accelerate in the next one. Last night he accelerated from a step behind Rupp to a half step ahead, which no doubt was by Salazar's design.

Salazar/Rupp/Farah have wisely concluded that running a fast last 400 starts 400 meters out, and they have trained for it. Who was it that said something about putting crap in their legs?

I know Lagat may be saving a little for London, but he wasn't saving much. You don't lay down a 52-mid last 400 and beat Lopez Lomong by two seconds by "training through" a race. There's not a lot more there.

[mal]

Agreed about Lagat's acceleration, but when you already ran one 200 at 26-27, it's pretty difficult to accelerate in the next one. Last night he accelerated from a step behind Rupp to a half step ahead, which no doubt was by Salazar's design.

Salazar/Rupp/Farah have wisely concluded that running a fast last 400 starts 400 meters out, and they have trained for it. Who was it that said something about putting crap in their legs?

I know Lagat may be saving a little for London, but he wasn't saving much. You don't lay down a 52-mid last 400 and beat Lopez Lomong by two seconds by "training through" a race. There's not a lot more there.

I'm not so sure about Lomong. I would have thought that if he had it, he'd have done it. He didn't. I am not as confident with athletes who move up that they can run in all circumstances. I suspect Lomong needs special personal conditions to run fast enough to be a contendor.
I still think Webb should have stayed at 1500.

[donley2]

As they pulled into the homestretch I turned to my wife and said, "watch how Lagat buries Rupp now." After the finish I got the eye-roll that I HATE!!!

Anyway, AWESOME finish by Rupp, and I will never underestimate him (or Salazar) again. The crowd had a complete meltdown at the end. Whatta day!

You crack me up. I try to make those kinds of pronouncements only with my kids. They however also harass me mercilessly when I am wrong.

[Randy Treadway]

Did you actually watch the event or do you figure you'll just look at finishing times, a couple of charts and decide how good the race was?

If you had bothered to read my previous post you'd know the answer to that question.

"Exciting for people watching" and "quality of mark" are too different things. A 5k won in 18:39 could be exciting for the last lap, with the winner in doubt until a lean at the tape.

[Randy Treadway]

Pre's meet record finally going down is notable. It once again reminds of what a great runner Pre was. In 1972, 13:22 was WAY up there on ANYBODY's annual list.

Unfortunately it also reminds us of the stagnation of American distance running in the 40 years since. That meet record should have been eclipsed a LONG time ago. It was way overdue. Hopefully there are now strong indications of things getting on a better course.

[odelltrclan]

The way that Rupp seems to be continuously improving, it won't take much more until he may be THE favorite. Maybe not this year, but next year and beyond. It will be interesting to see if he continues to improve. I don't think we have ever seen the likes from an American born distance runner. Salazar has created a masterpiece, and Rupp should be commended for following the advice given and not getting impatient. It would be fun to see if Rupp ran the 1,500 because I think he would make the team, if not win it.

The race last night was nearly identical to last year's World championship 5,000 except that it was FASTER. Faster at 1k, faster at 3k, final time and last lap was faster. It is hard for me to believe that Lagat will be able to run much faster in a final 400 than the 52 mid he ran last night so if he wants a chance at gold, HE is the one that needs to jump into the lead at 4,600. Too often he is two yards behind the leader and simply cannot make up the ground. I think it is time for a new strategy for him.

[kuha]

Honestly, I see Rupp as superior to Lagat at this point. But we'll see.

Ahem. Some of us could see this finish quite some time ago.
The truth is that Rupp is not the same guy as he was a couple years ago...and neither is Lagat.

I'm so glad I didn't see that beer bet, cuz I woulda raised you for even more. I NEVER saw that coming, so majors kudos that you did.

I claim no special insight at all. However, I was deeply impressed by Rupp's performance at the Pre meet. For some reason, seeing it in person gave me a different understanding than (probably) just seeing it on TV. Rupp impressed me then as remarkably tough, smart, and aggressive--and of course, he whacked down his PR by a pretty massive amount. He's not "simply" a 12:50 guy at this point, he's also a tough and savvy competitor. And, no, we haven't had that basic combination in quite some time. It's still an uphill climb to the medal stand in London, but I'm not betting against the guy.

[Conor Dary]

Just glad Rupp was the one to break Pre''s record.

[KevinM]

Pre's meet record finally going down is notable. It once again reminds of what a great runner Pre was. In 1972, 13:22 was WAY up there on ANYBODY's annual list.

Unfortunately it also reminds us of the stagnation of American distance running in the 40 years since. That meet record should have been eclipsed a LONG time ago. It was way overdue. Hopefully there are now strong indications of things getting on a better course.

I think it speaks more the vagaries of racing and the specifics of the 9 trials races since 1972. Some 50-odd Americans have run better than Prefontaine's then-AR at that race.

[gm]

It was a good 800, but a lousy 5K, really. What on earth were all those other guys (without the A) thinking, going out at a jog? Only Bethke and Trafeh even tried to push the pace a bit. The others just looked like they were happy to be there.

[Conor Dary]

I agree with your point, but unlike the 31:45 in the women's 10k, 13:20 is still a pretty good performance for most Americans these days. And unless the big boys, who have the kicks anyways, help it wasn't going to be in the cards.

[KevinM]

Agreed with Conor - it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. The guys with the fastest PRs were also the three most lethal kickers in the field. Without Tegenkamp, Ritz, and Torrence in the field, this was almost certainly going to be a 3-man game (plus maybe Bumbalough) no matter how things were sliced, unless things went insanely slow and provided last-lap chaos.

From the perspective of trying to place as high in the national championship meet as possible, rabbiting the 12:53, 12:58, and 13:11 guys would make even less sense than trying to outkick them.