Olympic Trials Decathlon

[Dave]

Daegu is worth considering with respect to a healthy Eaton versus a healthy Hardee. Hardee won in the big show. Istanbul is also interesting since it shows that Eaton was able to perform on a very large stage and may be getting better at it with more experience.

Given Eaton's continuing improvement in the throws and continued very high performance everywhere else, I would bet my $.02 on him winning in London and wouldn't bet against a WR either in Eugene or in London. That said, I won't be shocked to see him come home with silver against Hardee where they both score around 8700.

[8aldP|23]

Hardee and Eaton so far are the only A qualifiers (8200) from last year.
I'm wondering about Clay and if he's going to chase the A before the Trials? Gotzis later this month?

[dbirds]

I'm sure he will get it at the Trials. I think it will take 8200 to make the team.

[bruce3404]

Caught up with Ashton Eaton at Tracktown Tuesdays this evening where he was one of the featured speakers. He addressed his Daegu experience quite candidly, admitting that he got caught up in the scores it would take to win a world title, rather than the actual competition. As his performances unfolded at numbers less than what he deemed would be gold medal worthy, he admitted to getting more and more frustrated (something we could all see in the stands or on TV) and vowed that we would never again see that version of Ashton Eaton, just as we'd never seen it before. He seemed very relaxed, but also excited about his JT PR at Stanford.

[8aldP|23]

Saw Ashton this evening also. What a great guy and it was exciting just to watch him talk. He's got a lot of passion.
I started thinking about how underestimated his 1500m is. This might be his greatest tool. If Trey or Clay is going to beat Ashton, they'll have to have approx. 200 pts on him going into the 1500. This should be epic.

[Gabriella]

But that was a magical two days. Though as noted above his event PRs eventually summed to 9328, and though he hit 8800 or over an incredible 5 times in 2002-04, his best score after the WR was "only" 8893.

This is the interesting point about some multi eventers; they'll often have one big score when everything goes right over the two days of competition, then their next best score is quite a bit lower. It seems to be more prevalent on the women's side: Ghada Shouaa's best was 6942, but her next best was 6780, a full 162 pts off, from the same season (96); Laris Nikitina's best was 7007 ('89)but her next best was 132 pts behind with 6875 (also from '89) Irina Belova's best was 6845 and next best was 172 pts less with 6673 - both from '92.

Sabine Braun had the biggest differential between best and 2nd best; her pb was 6985 but her next best was a full 188 pts less at 6797 (however, she would have been mid 6800's in Barcelona if it wasn't for that disastrous LJ of just 6.02 when she was clearly in 6.6 form)

The elite men on the whole seem to be closer to their best scores - despite having 10 events and not 7 in which to lose pts - yet Sebrle does stand out with his second best being 133 less.

[gh]

rumor du jour: Beach will try to get an 800 Q and run that at the NCAA, not do the dec until the OT.

[bruce3404]

rumor du jour: Beach will try to get an 800 Q and run that at the NCAA, not do the dec until the OT.

That would be a foolish move on his part. Trading in a golden NCAA title opportunity for a 5th place at the Trials doesn't make much sense. Right now I would rate Clay, Eaton, Hardee, and Morrison ahead of Beach, whose PR is only 8084. Given his improvement during the indoor season, it's not inconceivable that he could score 8300 and with a couple of injuries or no marks by a couple of the guys ahead of him, perhaps he could sneak in, but it would be a longshot. Why not garner that initial NCAA Outdoor Title instead?

[Fortius19]

Because it's the Olympic Trials man!

He's a decathlete and wants to maximize what he thinks is his best chance as a decathlete to sneak into the Olympics.

All it takes is him having a great meet and one guy to falter a little. I don't see Morrison that far ahead of Beach. I see Beach as a strong canidate for fourth. One NH from the top three and bam! Beach is in!

[bruce3404]

Because it's the Olympic Trials man!

He's a decathlete and wants to maximize what he thinks is his best chance as a decathlete to sneak into the Olympics.

Given his age (21), I think 2016/2020 would be a lot more realistic. Perhaps the NCAA crown doesn't mean much to him and he will have another shot at it next year if he stays in school, so maybe that's part of the thought process.

[olorin]

I was looking at the decathletes with the best PBs (from decathlon 2000) and examine the relation between success in one event to others. There are 28 decathletes and I divided them to two groups (top and bottom 10) in one event and then examine their average PBs in another event. I also examine the overall correlation of the 28 events. There are some results that I expected and some that I (as an armchair fan) found a bit surprising.

The highest correlation is between SP and DT. If we rank the 28 decathletes according to their SP the bottom 10 have an average mark of 47.7 compared with 52.2 for the top 10 (correlation of 0.7). BTW - Eaton has the lowest mark in SP from all top 28 decathletes.

There is virtually no relation between JT and the other two throws. The top 10 in SP have on average an advantage of less than a meter (roughly 12 points) compared with the bottom 10 in SP.

There is a strong an expected relation between the 100, 110h, 400 and LJ. For example the top 10 in the 100 have an average PB in LJ of 8.02 compared with 7.82 for the bottom 10 (a difference of 50 points).

There is no relation between HJ and LJ (!) both the top and bottom 10 have an average mark of 2.12. There is a negative relation between the 100 and HJ. The top 10 in the 100 have an average of 2.12 whereas the bottom 10 have an average of 2.16. There is also a negative relation between the PV and the HJ. In contrast there is a positive relation between SP and HJ (2.12 and 2.14). Not really sure what to make of these results.

The PV itself acts much more according to (my) expectations with positive relation with the 100 and the LJ.

There is hardly any relation between the 1,500 and other events. Regardless how you rank the decathletes the gap is roughly between 1-3 seconds and not always in the expected direction. For example, the top 10 in 400 are two seconds slower than the bottom 10.

[bruce3404]

That's some interesting stuff, Olorin. I'd be curious to see if the pattern was the same going back a bit further in time, say from 1960 to the present, especially regarding the relationships between the HJ/LJ, HJ/100, PV/HJ and SP/HJ. Those correlations just don't make much sense to either of us and I'm thinking a larger database might iron things out. I'm assuming you only calculated deca PRs and not overall PRs.

[Fortius19]

FWIW, I read one study that said the 100/LJ is the strongest correlation and that SP/DT is a close second.

Good stuff. I wouldn't even know how to do all that maths.

[dbirds]

First of all, I love the decathlon and am not suggesting changing it; however, I do feel like the event favors the speed types. 100 is all speed, LJ/hurdles/400 all require a lot of speed and even HJ/PV/JT/1500 require a good amount of speed. I think a Dave Johnson or Mike Smith were phenomenal athletes that were hurt a little by their lack of 10.5+ speed.

[olorin]

That's some interesting stuff, Olorin. I'd be curious to see if the pattern was the same going back a bit further in time, say from 1960 to the present, especially regarding the relationships between the HJ/LJ, HJ/100, PV/HJ and SP/HJ. Those correlations just don't make much sense to either of us and I'm thinking a larger database might iron things out. I'm assuming you only calculated deca PRs and not overall PRs.

The only "database" that I have is the list that ranked deathliest according to their PBs (in all competitions).
http://www.decathlon2000.com/eng/841/de ... sonal-best
If anybody has a better list of PBs of decathletes I can do this "study" again.

I started this exercise because I wanted to know if Eaton's JT is weak (before his last PB) considering his SP and DT. Then, I couldn't find any relation between the PB in JT and the PBs in DT & SP. So I decided to look at his HJ (another of his weaker events) and then couldn't find relation between PBs in HJ and PBs in jumping or sprint events.

BTW - according to the statistical analysis Eaton's PB in SP is low considering his PB in DT. Other decathletes that throw ~47 has on average a PB of roughly a meter longer than Eaton (~ 60 points).

[BCBaroo]

rumor du jour: Beach will try to get an 800 Q and run that at the NCAA, not do the dec until the OT.

Cool rumor.

I heard Jeremy Wariner gonna run one too (jk)

[unclezadok]

No good deca performances this weekend in conference meets (May 10-12). I'm starting to think that if the Big 3 are not on form at the Trials, nobody else is going to be able to make the A standard.

[26mi235]

Cato/Szmanda almost won the Big 10 PV, both just missing 5.36, with 5.26 being a PR for Cato. Cato is not doing the Deca until NCAAs (because he is worth more in the PV, 110H, LJ, 4X100 than in the Deca at conference); I suspect his throws are not yet good enough, but when they match his strength he might be at 8300. [He is a Soph who has only done one Deca and would have been 2nd at WIC; eventual college Deca PRs could be 10.6-/7.80/14+/2.13/48.6// 13.5/40+/5.40/50+/4:50]

[Dave]

Do most non college Deca guys disappear until the trials at this point or are we likely to see more of Eaton, Clay, and Hardee before then?

[bruce3404]

Do most non college Deca guys disappear until the trials at this point or are we likely to see more of Eaton, Clay, and Hardee before then?

Extremely doubtful any of them would compete in a decathlon this close to the Trials, but they've all been out there working on individual events and will probably continue to do so, though the opportunities are more limited, a problem recently addressed in a T&F News editorial.

[gktrack]

Clay ran a very nice 110HH yesterday at CSULA, 13.75 (0.7), about a tenth of a second off his PR. He also long jumped, but only jumped about 23 feet.