I didn't even see 'media promotion' costs in there, without which, you're absolutely sunk.
I bemoan the 'state of the sport' as much as the next uber-fan, but until we cultivate our fan-base (which is right beneath our noses - the million HS kids who compete every year), we are a niche sport that should be very thankful that it still exists!
gh wrote:What can you expect for ticket revenue? Drawing 10,000 fans to a professional meet in this country is an admirable goal. And let's say can sell those at an average of 50 bucks apiece (about right for NYC, high for Eugene). so that's 3x10,000x50=$1,500,000.
Interesting analysis. And you know more about this than I do, but I think 10,000 for a dual meet is way over the top, certainly outside of Hayward. Even the big dual meets in Eugene back around 1980 never had that big of a crowd. Remember Salazar had his fancy 10,000 on the track back in April 1982---30 years ago!---and one reason was to boost attendance at a dual meet.
And now, as kuha said, the dual meet exists, somewhat, but a lot less than years before, at the high school and college level. But no one goes, from what I have observed, who isn't related to someone on the track.
PS. I just checked and that great dual with Rono and Salazar, 27:29.90-27:30.00 was 30 years ago today! Wow, how time flies.
It is an interesting--and, for some, utterly deflating--analysis.
I say it again: If anyone here actually wants the team meet format to survive, then go to HS and collegiate meets. The "product" you want is right there, waiting for you--and It's pretty clear that your attendance will be appreciated.
And since we didn't factor in any office space or rental of practice facilities, let's make it a nice round $2.5 million (and I'm guessing that's still low).
Most of the costs noted above are applicable to meets on the pro circuit now. Appearance fees for marquee athletes (check), prize money for athletes in the winners circle (check), stadium rental (check), room & board, air fare, ground transportation (check), meet official staffing (check) etc. Yes the team format is overall more expensive - we are working on the assumption that this strategy could over the medium to long term increase fan interest in the sport in terms of a fan's willingness to buy a ticket to go to a meet as well the potential for wider fan interest from a TV viewing audience. With a growing fan base comes too the potential for merchandising revenue. NASCAR generates $1.5 billion from merchandising alone. I'm not sure what the IAAF branding/merchandising strategy is but if I went to a Diamond League meet for instance and wanted to buy a souvenir could I even get one? I had a great time at the NY Grand Prix and want a souvenir T-shirt and cap - surely I can order something online, right? Well if it is out there I don't see it and when you think about the fact that me wearing that T-shirt and cap is free advertising for the sport, track and field is missing the boat in so many little but very important ways.
kuha wrote:How many boats does (essentially) unfettered capitalism really miss? If there's money to be made there, I say: go for it. Become a one percenter.
I don't think capitalism ever truly reached track and field. Track and field is an international sport that is largely run out of socialist Europe. Til 2001 the IAAF had "amateur" in its title but in 2012 the sport is still pretty much run that way. Success is defined as breaking even.
Trackrunner wrote: I don't think capitalism ever truly reached track and field. Track and field is an international sport that is largely run out of socialist Europe. Til 2001 the IAAF had "amateur" in its title but in 2012 the sport is still pretty much run that way. Success is defined as breaking even.
Socialist Europe? I guess you don't remember Primo, the Goldfinger of the Sport.
And before that it was more of a Capitalist Utopia, an Atlas Shrugged universe on steroids. Workers, i.e. athletes, toiling, at least legally, for nothing.
Last year, during World Champs all the USA Track & Field Track was trying to do on their FB page was to sell things from their merchandise store but in the same posts which announced success of an American athlete, I hope some of it goes to athletes. If that is capitalism I just hope Europe continues to be "socialist". How many people who would actually like to watch t&f have access to Universal Sports? From what I saw not many... I found some NBC livestream of the U.S.Trials last year and was disgusted by the amount of commercials. I can't even see any video from the past on UniversalSports unlike the most of the European sites. It's not like I need it but videos from the past are often free. Track and field TV and internet coverage in Europe rules
I really admire your your in depth knowledge of the sport and based on your conservative estimates it obvious a team league format cannot work.
My take on the issue however is not one that have the financial mechanics of the format tied down. Notwithstanding the in depth knowledge I think that I can safely make some claims regarding financing and start up venture in general.
1)Most companies that are starting especially in unchartered territory do not immediately turn a profit. 2)Revenue is projected along a path of growth. 3)Televison revenue revenue and sale of memorabillia etc forms a sizable portion of revenue which will also increase the more you project and grow.
Maybe after a detail analysis it it still proven to be unworkable but trying something different is in my judgement better than doing the same old things in the same old way while a truly great sport is dieing a slow painful death it does no deserve at the hands of archaic administrators.
Seems like instead of teams and circuits, the way to go (at least until someone comes up with a better, more workable model of how the team would function) would be to have a consistent, 13-16 week season of events being consistently held at consistent sites - don't require people (or athletes) to travel a circuit at first, instead, condition them to compete at a regular interval in a constant spot, then build up a circuit.
For instance, lets start at one site. Find a college with a suitable track, and located near enough to a major center to make access simple and cost-effective, but not in the center where costs would begin to spiral (for instance, hold something in say, Richmond, instead of DC; or in Charlotte, etc.).
Here's a sample competition schedule
Week One - Open Meet Week Two - Semi-pro Meet Week Three - Pro Meet Week Four - Open Meet Week Five - Semi-pro Meet Week Six - Pro Meet Week Seven - Open Meet Week Eight - Semi-pro Meet Week Nine - Pro Meet Week Ten - Open Meet Week Eleven - Semi-pro Meet Week Twelve - Pro Meet Week Thirteen - Off Week Fourteen - Champ Meet
The staggering of different levels of meet (along wwith the differing prize structures, below), allows the athletes who have the endurance and are in the events that need constant competition to achieve that. Also, the athletes who need time off between events can get that too (i.e., you have someone who's a future Sally Pearson competing every week, but the 10K guy who could be the next Meb is only running every three to four weeks).
For each level of meet, have a set prize structure, tied to an immediate post-race drug test (must be clean to get the cash): Open Meet - 500 for a win, 250 for second, 100 for third Semi-pro Meet - 1000 for win, 500 second, 300 third, 200 fourth, 100 fifth Pro Meet - 2500 for win, 1500 for second, 750 for third, 500 fourth, 250 fifth Champ Meet - 5000 for win, 2500 second, 1500 third, 750 fourth, 500 fifth **Total costs would not just be prize money for X events each week, but also timers, officials, track crew, drug testers. Shy away from appearance fees and travel assistance as long as you can.**
You can also mess around with the number of events you have at each level, if you'd like. Also, entry standards - for an open meet, none, for a semi-pro, maybe you have to have placed top three at an open meet, or meet a standard mark. For a pro meet, you have to meet a better standard, or won an open meet, or placed top five at semi-pro. For champ, likewise, even higher, AND have competed at X meets in the series.
Those first 5-7 years, yeah, you're not going to get the Bekele's to come to the meets, and probably not the Rupps either. But what you will get are the amatuers (due to NCAA rules, can't give them anything beyond necessary travel expenses), the post-collegiates looking to make a living while training to eventually get a contract, and the low-end pros that might not have the scratch for a European summer. And the eventual pay-off that you are gambling on is that they'll train up well enough to become the NEXT Bekele, or Simpson, or Isinbaeva, and they'll remember what fun they had on your circuit and will come back when they hit the big time.
From a sponsor's perspective, one, it gives you a constant view at the upcoming talent. Two, it gives you a consistent platform and audience. Three, if you already have sponsored athletes, it gives you a lower-cost alternative to the Diamond League and European Circuit for your developmental projects.
From a meet director's perspective, you don't need to hit a home run every time out, you just have to make contact, get on base, and then work from there. Having a constant schedule allows you train a knowledgeable official and volunteer pool to then draw from (also helps the college that is hosting it, in terms of better preparing them to make bids on NCAA events, or run good meets themselves). Constantly having meets keeps you in contact with the coaches, athletes, and agents; and they learn that you will always be running a fair, professional, and clean meet that exhibits them to the public and the sponsors.
For the hosting facility, if its a college, it could also pay dividends for recruiting after a few years. When recruits are too young, or too raw, to be able to enter themselves, they'll come to equate that school with the meets and athletes they grew up hearing about and watching. Then, a certain percentage will want to compete there for college. A larger percentage will grow up to then compete during the summer circuit, regardless of where they go to school.
It would all take time, and yes, you'd need a deep-pocket backer who's willing to forgo pretty much any chance of profit for the first decade, maybe more. But the vision you sell, and remember - how long did it take professional football to reach a profitable level, or baseball, basketball, hockey, European soccers? And they were doing it in a relatively untapped marketplace. You've got to have a plan, revise the plan based on current conditions, but make revisions with an eye 20-25 years out in the future.
Maybe it's all pie-in-the-sky, but seems like it would at least have a reasonable chance of succeeding, given proper funding.
Conor Dary wrote:'Maybe it's all pie-in-the-sky,...'
You got that part right.
Yup. If anyone's taking orders, I prefer blueberry and pumpkin...separately, of course, not together. I'd prefer these pies very large, incredibly tasty, free, and in unlimited quantity.
Probably is pie-in-the-sky but I'd say the best bet would be indoors. You don't get most of the big names that time of year anyway and could get the athletes who do want to compete cheap. And you could do each meet with fewer events than outdoors. Have five or six teams with one athlete per event per team and have each team host one meet in its home city.