London 2012 hept - update

[nianchengyu]

Ennis Jessica won LJ at the Bedford International Games yesterday with a 6.40m although she a few week ,also 46.34m in JV,quite solid performance for her.More rapid for zelinka of CAN who ran 12.76s in 100mH earning first in current hep,6.13m LJ, about 43.09m JV

[Gabriella]

Sadly Michael Schrader has a slight foot injury meaning he will not start in Ratingen this weekend. He'll have 2 weeks off before he goes back into training. The fairly tough German selection policy means he will not be able to go to the Olympics as Ratingen was the last German qualifier for London. All 3 places are filled for the Europeans.

This is very sad as he was heading for a score of between 8220 and 8300 in Gotzis before he NH in the PV. Now he will have to concentrate on a late season decathlon. The Talence Decastar in September is the only one left in the IAAF Combined Events Challenge though he can do some other low key meetings (not the European Cup in Combined Events as that isn't held in Olympic year)

[xygo]

56,90m !!! (PB) improvement for Greece's Sofia Yfantidou in javelin!
Also, 13.64 (SB) at 100m H at Greece NC !

[nianchengyu]

Dafne schippers jumped 6.54m in NC today,so the lastest 92/93 born talent data:
dafne schippers individual best marks so far :
13.27,1.74i,14.19,22.69,6.54,41.80,2.15.74 6508p/6360p 2012
Laura Ikauniece individual best marks so far,all individual bests come from 2012:
13.70,1.85i,12.67,24.43,6.19,53.73,2.13.68 6459p/6282p 2012
Sara Gambetta individual best marks so far :
14.66,1.82,15.38,24.31,6.41,51.17,2.24.74 6348p/6108p 2011
Katarina Johnson-Thompson individual best marks so far :
13.62,1.88i,11.83,23.78,6.46,38.68,2.14.56 6300p/6248p 2012
Tilia Udelhoven dividual best marks so far :
14.05,1.75,12.47i,24.63,6.42,46.73,2.16.57 6149p/6000p 2011nianchengyu

[nianchengyu]

56,90m !!! (PB) improvement for Greece's Sofia Yfantidou in javelin!
Also, 13.64 (SB) at 100m H at Greece NC !

fantastic job by her,I wonder how many points the Greece requires for hep? Really want to see Yfantidou in oly,what a great JVer she is.

[xygo]

56,90m !!! (PB) improvement for Greece's Sofia Yfantidou in javelin!
Also, 13.64 (SB) at 100m H at Greece NC !

fantastic job by her,I wonder how many points the Greece requires for hep? Really want to see Yfantidou in oly,what a great JVer she is.

The iaaf standards are those required... so she will compete with "B" standard... before that, she will also compete at Helsinki (Euros)

[nianchengyu]

Ennis and Katarina Johnson-Thompson both entered HJ,100mH on 23th,LJ and 200m on 24th in NC.A s for Skujyte,she chosen to join in HJ AND SP in EC. In EC,HEP medal will be some canditate like yosypenko,Melnychenko,Bolshova,Nana Djimou AND Grabuste,Ikauniece,Aerts,Klučinová,Samuelsson,Fransen whose first hep this year are worthy of our attention.by the way, local star kelo also a hightlight because she is the double hep WR holder and often tries DT,LJ and so on but only has a pb of 5956p in 2006 EC/5840pw this year.Definately, she is a good thrower even to medal contender in oly.Seems 15.32m SP,54.44m DT when she was 20y,54.47m JVer.look at her 5840pw:
14.06/2.7 - 1.65 - 14.80 - 25.80/5.3 / 5.58/-1.8 - 52.60 - 2:23.43

[nianchengyu]

Another data deserved our attention in EC HEP, that even in oly we cannot see such good indivduals in hep:
look at HJ of some entry heptathletes ,then JV PB:
Fransen NED 1.92m NR 2011 indoors in EIC pentathlon.
Bolshova RUS 1.92m/4896p P 2012 NC
Mikołajczyk POL 1.92m 2012
JV:
Ifadídou GRE 56.90m 2012 NC
Nana Djimou FRA 55.79m 2011 WC
Kelo FIN 54.47m 2011
Ikauniece LAT 53.73m 2012

[nianchengyu]

Laura Ikauniece set six pb in EC although below-par in throwing events and her potential scores already beyond dafne schippers,so the lastest 92/93 born talent data:
Laura Ikauniece individual best marks so far,all individual bests come from 2012:
13.53,1.85i,12.67,24.36,6.31,53.73,2.12.82 6541p/6335p 2012
dafne schippers individual best marks so far :
13.27,1.74i,14.19,22.69,6.54,41.80,2.15.74 6508p/6360p 2012
Sara Gambetta individual best marks so far :
14.66,1.82,15.38,24.31,6.41,51.17,2.24.74 6348p/6108p 2011
Katarina Johnson-Thompson individual best marks so far :
13.48,1.88i,11.83,23.78,6.51/6,81+2.5,38.68,2.14.56 6344p/6443p/6248p 2012
Tilia Udelhoven dividual best marks so far :
14.05,1.75,12.47i,24.63,6.42,46.73,2.16.57 6149p/6000p 2011

[nianchengyu]

Johnson-Thompson Katarina jumped 6.81/+2.5 to win WJ title, ,and slo ran 13.48s in 100mH heat.In women hep,Yorgelis Rodríguez won with 5966p,Xénia Krizsán 5957p and Tamara de Sousa huge imrovement to 5900p.
I expect Sara Gambetta to smash 14.37m HB in WJC,but she maybe feel not well this year,not in WJC at all.

[Gabriella]

It's been 6 months since this topic was first started, so what has changed and what is the situation now going into London?

Ennis
Jess set a great PB and NR in Gotzis of 6906 to beat Chernova. Her performance included PBs in the 200m, LJ & JT. The latter two were significant as she lead the field in the LJ in Gotzis & it was these two events that let her down in Istanbul & Daegu. In her most recent meet she was mediocre in both though and they remain her achilles heel - she has not improved her PBs significantly in them. The key in London will not necessarily be to set PBs in these events but to not underperform in them. The HJ is the other key event and the difference between her jumping 1.85 or higher could be crucial.

Chernova
Chernova set her second best mark ever behind Ennis in Gotzis, 6774. She was good in all events, her LJ being the disappointment at 6.44. She has competed in Russia since but without any outstanding results and her LJ remains underpar on previous seasons. She is now consistent at 13.3 in the 100h which is great but she still under achieves in the HJ and SP. She needs to stay in touch with Ennis in these two events if she wants to shake the Brit.

Dobrynska
Poor in Gotzis after her great WIR, but understandably so due to her personal circumstances. She has prepared behind closed doors, with no apparent meets since May. In recent interviews she says she is in form and will fight to defend her title. She will need to find another 500 pts on her Gotzis score to challenge for gold though and needs to improve in every event. She will be the unknown quantity going into the Games.

[Gabriella]

The Rest
Oeser - so consistent in recent years, she's carrying an injury which looks to ruin her run of medals. At the Thorpe Cup the previous weekend she did ok with a 13.6 hurdles, 1.77 HJ and 13.3 SP, but these were all down on what she did in Gotzis. She can rise to the occasion and is very competitive though, but it does look like she will struggle to make the top 8.

Yosypenko - 3rd in Gotzis with a PB, the only individual event she PBed in was the 100h so there is more there in theory. However, she was disappointing in Helsinki finishing 2nd and over 100 pts less than she did in Austria. She looked to be carrying an injury as well, so will likley be around the 6300 mark in London.

Nana Djimou - Won the European title with a PB and great second day, inclduing LJ and JT PBs, the latter a great 55.82. She's not far off sub 13 in the 100mh now too. She's still improving and other than a blip in 2010 has improved every season since 2003. She can go over 6,600 if she puts it together and remains an outside medal threat. It remains to be seen whether doing both Gotzis and the Europeans has taken anything out of her though.

Savitskaya - new kid on the block. Improved ridiculously by nearly 700 pts from 5989 to 6681. She's had limited competition outside Russia at this level, so it remains to be seen whether she will be a threat. However, she is obviously talented with a 1.88 HJ, 15.27 SP and 6.65 LJ. On paper the dark horse but in reality will probably not get close to her PB in London.

Zelinka - currently 4th on this years lists, she is in fantastic hurdling form, setting a PB of 12.68. Her HJ and LJ have not improved and she will need a high 1.7 to stay in contention on the first day. She will lose touch on day 2 with a poor LJ and mediocre JT, so will need to run as close to that 12.6 hurldes times as possible and get a good put in.

Schwarzkopf - currently in her best form, despite no PB in Gotzis. She's worked on her poor events (100mh, HJ, 200 and LJ) so if she can start day 1 with a sub 13.5 hurdles and 1.83 HJ she'll be on track. She needs as much inside 25 secs in the 200 as possible and a 6.3 LJ, but then she can unleash a big JT. Potentially could be over 6600.

Skujyte - 4th in Gotzis, what she's lost in her SP she's gained in her HJ, which is now tremendous. HJ and hept PBs this season, she can't be written off, but she has one extremely weak in event in the 100mh, such that if she underperforms in another events, particularly one of the other key scoring ones (HJ and LJ) she ruins her chances.

[Gabriella]

One athlete I have not mentioned is Fountain. She's a bit further down on the world lists this season and not in her best form, despite some great indvidual marks. However, she hasn't finished a major champs heptathlon since Beijing, and I see the same thing here.

My predictions (which will change as the event progresses)

Ennis - 6900+
Chernova - 6800+
Dobrynska - 6700+
Djimou - 6600
Schwarzkopf - 6550+
Zelinka - 6500+
Skujyte - 6450+
Yosypenko - 6350+
Savitskaya - 6300+
Oeser - DNF
Fountain - DNF

[liuxuan]

the most crucial eventn in determining Ennis' London performance is undoubtedly the High Jump. I have no doubt she'll be off to a flyer with the hurdles, but her performance in the High Jump is going to be crucial in determining how much of a lead she has over her rivals - and consequently, how much pressure she will be under not to underperform in her less impressive events on day 2

Jess could potentially equal her PB at 1.95, or she could equally under perform at 1.85m. The difference between these two marks is 130 points, which is going to be massive in determining where she is at giong into the long jump.

If she can get at least 1.92m she will be in a fantastic position to approach the rest of the competition confidently, which is really important due to the intense media presence over the two days of the competition, which will be immense. If Jess puts in a 1.87 or 1.89 performance, she will be putting herself in a position where she will be long jump or javelin throwing with the threat of chernova or possibly dobrynska drawing level or going ahead before the 800m

IDEALLY....She will come out and blast 12.75/1.95m and then can relax and attack each event and let the others chase!

[ldnbloke]

And then there's Thiesen, Grabuste, Ikauniece, Melnychenko, Khurban, Tyminska(if well) and Schippers who are also capable of plus 6300. The heptathlon is out of a lull and it's great to see so many athletes doing well.
I wonder if K Johnson Thompson will maintain her form into London and get more than 6300 although qualifying for London and LJ gold at WJCh is quite a feat for this year.

[DecFan]

Thanks, Gabriella, for your usual excellent summary of the heptathletes.

My only disagreement is with Fountain. There's no evidence from this season to think she will DNF. Of course, that's a possibility for every multi-eventer, but her health looks good. She was unpressed at the OT. Performances of 12.9, 1.87, 13.25, 23.4, 6.6, 42, 2:17 - all below PRs, and quite reasonable given this year's results - sum to 6600. I would put her in 4th or 5th on the form chart at present, and a threat to move up into the medals if she hits some PRs and/or one of the top 3 stumbles. Given the relative strengths of the top heptathletes, with a good performance Fountain could be leading after 5 events. It would then be interesting to see how she responds to that pressure/opportunity.

[ldnbloke]

It's impossible to say what Fountain will do... Anything from DNF, NH, NM, medal etc would have the same odds...
Oeser if over her injury can sneak in for a medal. and she's not the DNF type of athlete.
Ennis will have Zelinka in the 100mh heat and Schippers in the 200m heat to drag her to a better result. This is something that she will hopefully use to her advantage. It's better to chase Schippers than to try and ward off Chernova in the closing stages of the 200. But as always the LJ and JT will determine things.

[TimRoy]

Great analysis, Gabriella. Thank you for that. And good to be reminded that there are some very interesting athletes (if perhaps not realistic medal contenders) beyond the top 8 or so.

I second the view that, with Fountain, anything from DNF/NH/NM to 6,700 is possible, with the former the more likely. I think Ennis and Chernova are really close, almost equal favorites, and that the bronze is open to any of seven or so (Dobrynska, Nana-Djimou, Schwarzkopf, Zelinka, Oeser, Savitskaya, Fountain).

Can't wait to learn where I'm wrong.

[dbirds]

Great job, Gabriella. I would not overlook Theisen. I see a 6500+ coming

[tgs3]

And then there's Thiesen, Grabuste, Ikauniece, Melnychenko, Khurban, Tyminska(if well) and Schippers who are also capable of plus 6300. The heptathlon is out of a lull and it's great to see so many athletes doing well.
I wonder if K Johnson Thompson will maintain her form into London and get more than 6300 although qualifying for London and LJ gold at WJCh is quite a feat for this year.

12 women went over 6300 in Beijing. I think that record has a good chance to be beat. The fight for bronze could be very fierce.

[Gabriella]

I've probably done Fountain a disservice by assuming she wont finish, especially as she had that great 2010, but my gut feeling is that she'll DNF. Of course, if she doesn't drop out, she will remain a threat. I don't need to underline her strengths, we all know what they are, it just seems she now has difficulty putting 7 events together.

She is definitely one of the big along with Dobrynska and Savitskaya, each for their own different reason.

Of the younger generation, I purposely left Schippers out because, though she had that great PB in Gotzis, I'm not sure she will make top 8 in London. She is definitely the future and I've no doubt she'll be winning medals very soon, but it's too early this year and I think some of the more experienced women will beat her. She also seems to have competed quite a lot this season compared to other multi eventers, and after that mishap on the bend in Helsinki I'm unsure of form (nianchengyu, any word on Dafne's form going into London?)

Ikauniece I feel has peaked for the Europeans and I dont see her replicating her score in London. Again, she is the future, but I think when all the big guns are in London she'll perform more like she did in Gotzis rather than Helsinki.

Grabuste, another talent, was a bit disappointing in Helsinki because really she should have beaten Ikauniece for the bronze. But I see too many women ahead of her for a top 8 finish.

Johnson-Thompson should certainly be approaching 6300 on home soil and is improving every time she steps on the track. However, my only concern is as with Schippers; she seems to have competed quite a bit. She did a full hept in Desenzano del Garda, then a full hept a month later in Kladno, she's done various individual meets and then the World Juniors in the hurdles and LJ. At her age this may well be a bit too much. However, I'm of course hoping it isn't and she PB's in London.

Of the other 'oldies', Melnychenko always flatters to deceive and I dont see her challenging the top 8.

I definitely agree that in theory we could see record number of women over 6000 and 6300...but, as with my socore predictions, this is going to come down to the London weather

[nianchengyu]

[quote="Gabriella"]
Of the younger generation, I purposely left Schippers out because, though she had that great PB in Gotzis, I'm not sure she will make top 8 in London. She is definitely the future and I've no doubt she'll be winning medals very soon, but it's too early this year and I think some of the more experienced women will beat her. She also seems to have competed quite a lot this season compared to other multi eventers, and after that mishap on the bend in Helsinki I'm unsure of form (nianchengyu, any word on Dafne's form going into London?
quote]
Agree with you,I think dafne has some difficultIes to get a top 8 place,this year many rapidly improving athletes,6400p is a limit scores to get top 8 if weather is ok.Dafne only achieved LJ pb this year and her recently not well ,13.63s in 100H still show her unflexible skill between hurdles,along with a so-so 13.54m SP AND bad final 200m in EC,getting 6300p around will be ok for her,