Greatest dominance ever by one country?


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Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Powell » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:19 am

Here's this season's world list in men's marathon:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby MJR » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:30 am

Kenya & Men's Steeple has been like this since I can remember.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby nevetsllim » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:36 am

Ma's Army in 93 and 97, perhaps?
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Powell » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:49 am

MJR wrote:Kenya & Men's Steeple has been like this since I can remember.


They have been dominant, certainly, but I'm pretty sure there has never been a season when the top 10 SCers in the world were all Kenyans (even if you include Kenyans competing for other countries).
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Powell » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:53 am

nevetsllim wrote:Ma's Army in 93 and 97, perhaps?


Not 93 - IIRC, they had something like 8 fastest women at 1500 and 5 at 3000. 97 might have been closer, but I don't think they had as many as 14 at the top of the world list.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Powell » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:57 am

I looked it up on Pela's list, and in 97 they *only* had the top 9 at 1500, top 8 at 10000 and top 4 at 5000. In 93, they took the top 5 places both at 1500 and at 3000.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Oct 17, 2011 5:25 am

A different measure adds another almost 70, with almost 30 Ethiopians at 2:10:38, the last being the venerable Felix Limo.

Top 130: 79 Kenya, 29 Ethiopia, 6 Morroco, 5 Japan, 3 Russia, and then about six 'singles. Add in multiple races and you get 91 Kenya and 35 Ethiopia. Of course, tossing Boston, which had a relative paucity of Kenyans skews the results some, since 2:03:02 does not get so much aid to push it down below about 2:05:00
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Conor Dary » Mon Oct 17, 2011 7:36 am

Powell wrote:Here's this season's world list in men's marathon:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.


Another reason why the Men's Olympic marathon has lost a lot of its significance.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Letlôtse » Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:58 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Powell wrote:Here's this season's world list in men's marathon:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.


Another reason why the Men's Olympic marathon has lost a lot of its significance.

For who has it lost its significance ?
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Conor Dary » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:07 am

Letlôtse wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
Powell wrote:Here's this season's world list in men's marathon:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.


Another reason why the Men's Olympic marathon has lost a lot of its significance.

For who has it lost its significance ?


Myself for one. It is a nice prize, but with the bucks from the big marathons grabbing the talent it is hardly be all end all it might once have been.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 3:01 pm

How embarrassing for those guys in 16th-20th place. To have let an outlander get ahead of them.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby gh » Mon Oct 17, 2011 10:41 pm

The U.S. claimed all 10 spots in the World Rankings in the pole vault in 1947.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby dunedine » Wed Oct 19, 2011 2:53 am

In fact, it's a virtual top 15 made by Kenyans since Nicholas Manza is equal 15th on 2h06:34 with Brasilian Marilson dos Santos! I don't think I've seen the like of this before in an Olympic discipline at least.

A parameter that has substantially contributed to that total dominance has also been the slump of particularly the Ethiopians this season the other way round.

Haile has been stuttering following injury problems, Gebremariam hasn't raced over any distance since around June (injured?), Kebede hasn't quite been in the same form as last year, Worku looks rather unfit and even Sileshi Sihine dropped out on his debut in Amsterdam last Sunday. This has been a torment of a season for them given their rivalry with the Kenyans!
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Wed Oct 19, 2011 10:14 am

Gebremariam ran in Daegu and dropped out early. He will be running in NYC, but I wouldn't expect a fast time there.

Speaking of NYC, if a Kenyan wins there, they wil sweep all five WMM. I don't think it has ever happened before.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby dunedine » Wed Oct 19, 2011 1:29 pm

Woopssss... Slipped my mind that Gebre...mariam was a starter in Daegu but dropping out so early didn't really translate well over his fitness and form.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Oct 19, 2011 11:54 pm

The case is overstated by dropping out other races, notably Boston. The conditions might have helped some but Boston is a tough course and to thing that 2:03:02 etc would not be in the top marks and that 2:04 would not either is to misuse the statistics in this context. If you wanted to determine who the best sprinters are for the year and one guy had a bunch of 9.6x marks with winds of 2.x mps but no wind-legal times, do you think it would be a good assessment of the top sprinters to use the conditions necessary for a WR to assess the top runners. For that matter, go back to 2003 and tell me who the top women were and tell me with a straight face that Paula does not make the cut...
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby rabalac » Fri Oct 21, 2011 11:11 am

Conor Dary wrote:
Letlôtse wrote:
Conor Dary wrote:
Powell wrote:Here's this season's world list in men's marathon:
http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists ... etail.html

On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.


Another reason why the Men's Olympic marathon has lost a lot of its significance.

For who has it lost its significance ?


Myself for one. It is a nice prize, but with the bucks from the big marathons grabbing the talent it is hardly be all end all it might once have been.


So let me get this straight, an OLYMPIC event - especially one steeped in tradition - is now playing second fiddle to a non-olympic track and field event? Well Silly me, here I am thinking that the Olympics Games provide THE GREATEST platform for the sport of track & field.

Now let's be clear, obviously all gold medals (for all sports) earned at the olympics are not equal in prestige. For a soccer player, I would imagine winning the World Cup would be a greater achievement than an olympic gold medal. Same goes for winning Wimbledon if you are a tennis player. But for a track and field athlete? This is a no brainer. I cannot imagine there is an olympic marathon winner who would rather trade in his gold medal for a victory in NY, Boston, or wherever.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Conor Dary » Fri Oct 21, 2011 12:56 pm

As for men's soccer the Olympics is pretty much ignored, since it is only under23s. I don't know anyone who pays attention to it.

And as I noted before the Men's marathon is a nice prize and Wajiru was certainly a deserving winner, but the big marathons is where the money. And there is also the fact that by design 90%
of the top runners can't even run.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Oct 21, 2011 2:33 pm

Until 1996 the bicycling was 'amateur' racing, not the pros.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Sat Oct 22, 2011 2:41 pm

Conor Dary wrote:As for men's soccer the Olympics is pretty much ignored, since it is only under23s. I don't know anyone who pays attention to it.

And as I noted before the Men's marathon is a nice prize and Wajiru was certainly a deserving winner, but the big marathons is where the money. And there is also the fact that by design 90% of the top runners can't even run.


I am pretty much sure that a runner gets a bigger bonus from his sponsor by winning the Olympic gold medal than any other race in the world. Not only that, the apperance money of that runner in future races goes up substantially because of the Olympic title.

So winning the Olympic gold medal is financially more rewarding than winning any other race in the world. It could be more rewarding than winning the WMM title, depending on how many time one could race before the next Olympics.

And it's not like one has to sacrifice much. It's hard to run Berlin or Chicago after the Olympics, but running NYC is possible. And running London or Boston before the Olympics is certainly doable, as Wanjiru did in 2008.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Conor Dary » Sat Oct 22, 2011 3:38 pm

I suppose it is worth something if you win. But only one guy wins...

But what is it really worth? During the Chicago telecast Tony Reavis mentioned that Mosop probably won't be picked for the Kenyan team.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Sun Oct 23, 2011 3:41 pm

Mosop won't be there, but there will be Makau and Kirui and another Kenyan (probably one of the Mutais), as well as top three Ethiopians and every one else. Is there any marathon with a deeper field?

Makau says he won't run any spring marathon next year. Doesn't that indicate how seriously he takes the Olympics? He is essentially giving up a chance to win the WWM title both for 2011-12, and 2012-13. That's a total of $1M as well as the appearance fee and the prize money of London/Boston that he is giving up.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Conor Dary » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:41 pm

TN1965 wrote:Mosop won't be there, but there will be Makau and Kirui and another Kenyan (probably one of the Mutais), as well as top three Ethiopians and every one else. Is there any marathon with a deeper field?

Makau says he won't run any spring marathon next year. Doesn't that indicate how seriously he takes the Olympics? He is essentially giving up a chance to win the WWM title both for 2011-12, and 2012-13. That's a total of $1M as well as the appearance fee and the prize money of London/Boston that he is giving up.


Since in any given marathon the race is dominated by Kenyans any marathon with only 3 Kenyans is by definition not a very deep field.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:52 am

TN1965 wrote:I am pretty much sure that a runner gets a bigger bonus from his sponsor by winning the Olympic gold medal than any other race in the world. Not only that, the apperance money of that runner in future races goes up substantially because of the Olympic title. .


Not clear that this is correct for the marathon when the effects of the bonuses etc. are added. In addition, when adding in the probability of winning to the calculus, I think that the expected rewards are greater for other races, possibly by a non-trivial amount. In part this may be due to some athletes/countries peaking more for the OGs than for the circuit.

Clearly adding 20 Kenyans would affect the depth of the OG field, but would not change much the probability that a Kenyan would win it. It does seem that the long-running dearth of Kenyans winning the WCs/OGs (relative to success elsewhere) is now over, but that is a very recent phenomena.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby tm71 » Mon Oct 24, 2011 7:12 pm

Since in any given marathon the race is dominated by Kenyans any marathon with only 3 Kenyans is by definition not a very deep field.Conor Dary

true. even the world championships had half a dozen kenyans which made it very difficult even for the ethiopians to medal. at least in the olympics the rest of the field would have to hope that only one of the three kenyans doesnt have a good day.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Tue Oct 25, 2011 12:05 pm

Conor Dary wrote:Since in any given marathon the race is dominated by Kenyans any marathon with only 3 Kenyans is by definition not a very deep field.


So which of the World Marathon Majors has a deeper field than the Olympic Games?

In spring, you have London and Boston.

In fall, you have Berlin, Chicago, and NY.

Then there are sub-2:06 Kenyans who do not run any WMM at all. They choose to run Rotterdam, Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, etc. instead.

So which race has a deeper field than the Olympics. I am very curious to know that.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby gh » Tue Oct 25, 2011 1:05 pm

TN1965 wrote:.....

I am pretty much sure that a runner gets a bigger bonus from his sponsor by winning the Olympic gold medal than any other race in the world. Not only that, the apperance money of that runner in future races goes up substantially because of the Olympic title.

So winning the Olympic gold medal is financially more rewarding than winning any other race in the world. It could be more rewarding than winning the WMM title, depending on how many time one could race before the next Olympics. ....


I can't quote you any numbers, but I suspect you're dead wrong here. Win one of the major city marathons and you triple-dip: sponsor money/prize money/WMM money, all of which certainly combine to pay more than your sponsor's Olympic money, and I'm guessing by a fair amount.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:19 pm

But isn't the Olympic gold medal also a triple-dip?

-- Sponsor bonus for winning the Olympic.
-- increase in future appearance money.
-- increase in future sponsor money or new sponsors.

I bet Wanjiru was paid far more to run in 2009 London than 2008 London. Would a similar spike in appearance money happen with victory in any other race? I highly doubt it. The same for all the sponsorship deals he signed after the Olympics.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby gh » Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:30 pm

those things you added for the OG can also be added to WMM.

Gotta remember, the marathon is a different animal: the shoe companies are appealing directly to the 50,000-odd other people in the race (and millions of others like them), each of whom wears/uses their product. The same can't remotely be said for Olympic TV audiences.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Ned Ryerson » Wed Oct 26, 2011 6:51 pm

gh wrote:
TN1965 wrote:.....

I am pretty much sure that a runner gets a bigger bonus from his sponsor by winning the Olympic gold medal than any other race in the world. Not only that, the apperance money of that runner in future races goes up substantially because of the Olympic title.

So winning the Olympic gold medal is financially more rewarding than winning any other race in the world. It could be more rewarding than winning the WMM title, depending on how many time one could race before the next Olympics. ....


I can't quote you any numbers, but I suspect you're dead wrong here. Win one of the major city marathons and you triple-dip: sponsor money/prize money/WMM money, all of which certainly combine to pay more than your sponsor's Olympic money, and I'm guessing by a fair amount.


Since the Olympics qualify for two of those three direct rewards (as it's part of the WMM series) it depends on: how big that shoe company bonus is, and on how much more you stand to earn from future major marathons from being the Olympic Champion (not talking about prize money). Those numbers won't be the same for everyone.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Fielding Melish » Sat Oct 29, 2011 7:02 pm

It is important to remember that WMM is a winner-take-all competition.

Back in 2007-08 Irina MIkiteno & Gete Wami both wound up with the same amount of points. Under rules then in effect a vote of Race Directors awarded the title to Mikitenko.

Mikitenko wound up with $500,000; Wami ended up with $0.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby SantaCruz » Sun Oct 30, 2011 4:51 am

Powell wrote:On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.


After Frankfurt today, Kenya now holds the top 19 positions. (+ Kamakya tied for 20th)
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby kamikaze7 » Sun Oct 30, 2011 4:16 pm

In a year when Kenya lost its most popular athlete to an inexplicable death, this is the most dominant performance by any country in T&F and perhaps in any sport.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby richh1948 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 7:49 am

As of today (and including Boston) Kenya has 50 under 2:09:00 this year, 100 at 2:10:54 and 103 under 2:11
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Master Po » Mon Oct 31, 2011 8:53 am

And, just to highlight this dominance -- it's not just of non-African runners/nations -- it's also of the Ethiopians. So far this year (again, including Boston and LA), Ethiopia has 14 @ sub-2:09 -- which is a lot -- but not much in comparison to the 50 @ sub-2:09 from Kenya. And, among marathon victories, just to take those marathons with a winning time faster than 2:09, Kenyan runners have won 24; Ethiopia, 3 (Morocco & Uganda, 1 each). I am sure if we went through the top 10 at each of these events, we would see this dominance reinforced even more. The fact that we've seen 4 @ 2:03 this year is less surprising to me than the sheer numbers of high quality Kenyan performers, as noted above (of course, these are related -- to have even a remote chance at selection for the Oly team, Kenyan marathoners need to be running WR fast).
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Mon Oct 31, 2011 2:26 pm

So at least top Kenyans do not think the Olympic race has lost its significance. :)

If any Kenyan passes up an opportunity to compete in the Olympics so that he could challenge the WR in a fall marathon, then I would agree that the Olympic race has lost significance.

When will that happen?
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Powell » Mon Nov 07, 2011 1:19 am

SantaCruz wrote:
Powell wrote:On the basic list (i.e. excluding Boston and other races not eligible for record recognition), the top 14 positions are occupied by Kenyans :shock: I doubt one country has ever dominated any Olympic event to this extent, at least in more modern times.


After Frankfurt today, Kenya now holds the top 19 positions. (+ Kamakya tied for 20th)


After NYC, the top 20 is an all-Kenyan affair (+ Kamakya in joint 21st) :shock:

And the best European is Oleksandr Sitkovskyy with 2:09:26, which puts him 90th on the list :?
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby Master Po » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:34 am

Master Po wrote: ...And, among marathon victories, just to take those marathons with a winning time faster than 2:09, Kenyan runners have won 24; Ethiopia, 3 (Morocco & Uganda, 1 each) ..


With Seoul & NYC marathons done, it's now Kenya 26, Ethiopia 3, Morocco 1, Uganda 1 for the year, with a few more to be run that could yield sub-2:09.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby TN1965 » Mon Nov 07, 2011 2:37 pm

Kenyans won not only the all five World Marathon Majors plus the World Championships, but also the second place in all six races with the new CR in all six of them.

E.Mutai, Mosop and Kipsang could possibly sweep the Olympic medals, if they were to ran instead of G.Mutai, Makau and Kirui.
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Re: Greatest dominance ever by one country?

Postby dunedine » Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:21 am

What's more, Geoffrey Mutai's time of 2h05:06 has turned the world top 20 rankings fully Kenyan, I haven't seen the like of it in an Olympic event ever before. And to think that double world champion Abel Kirui isn't among them!

Further, a look at the all-time marathon lists will now reveal that Haile Gebrselassie is the only non-Kenyan in the top 10, lying third!
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