¶Brussels m10K (non-DL)—Bekele 26:43.16 WL, Rupp AR 26:48.00

[SQUACKEE]

let's see which of us remembers to bump this a year from now1

Which one? Probably they guy who gets it right! What's on the line, bragging rights.

I have Bek and you have the rest of the best and the best of the rest.

I call that a bargain, the best I ever had!

[John G]

It was great to see Bekele win but somehow seeing him run like a mortal was a little sad. Sprinting down the home straight he just didn't look like his old self - short strides, slightly uneven running style with much more arm action. I felt like watching Geb in 2004. I don't think Jeilan and Mo need to lose sleep.

It seems to me you are comparing Bekele when not fully fit to Mo/Jeylan fully fit. I think it is absolutely amazing that Bekele was able to come back and run 26:43. Yes, his finish was not like pre-2010 Bekele, but if he is able to train properly for London, I think he will be very difficult to beat. He may decide he has to run a longer kick, as he has done several times in the 5K, but he is perfectly capable of doing that. He has shown the ability to run any kind of race, with or without pacemaking. If I were Jeylan or Mo, I would lose sleep after seeing what Bekele just did.

Also, what about Lucas Rotich? He's 21, and finished just 10th in his heat at the Kenyan NC in Nairobi, 12th at Pre in 27:12.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

Absolutely - I realise I was watching a less than fully fit Bek. I also agree that he will utilise a longer run for home next year because his kick is unlikley to ever return to it's former level.

I'd never compare a Mo or Jeilan to a fully fit Bekele. I just don't think we'll ever see a fully fit version again. I can't recall any runner who was able to dominate for 7 years, take a year or two off with serious injury and then come back at the same level.

Thanks for info on Rotich. Reminded me of the emergence of Kemboi against Geb in Brussels in 2003.

[SQUACKEE]

I can't recall any runner who was able to dominate for 7 years, take a year or two off with serious injury and then come back at the same level.
.

Do you recall one who came back after 1-2 years with a serious injury and running the fastest time of the year?

[26mi235]

Well, since there are only 2-4 fast 10,000 per year, it is not quite the same, especially since a couple of those are early in the year before the runners are in peak form.

[SQUACKEE]

[quote="26mi235"]Well, since there are only 2-4 fast 10,000 per year, it is not quite the same, especially since a couple of those are early in the year before the runners are in peak form.[/quote]
Yeah, like Bek was!

[doug5321]

in the brussels 10k no one seems to even be mentioning geoffrey kirui who has a birthdate of 1993 and ran 26:55, he still has another year as a junior.

[26mi235]

Well, since there are only 2-4 fast 10,000 per year, it is not quite the same, especially since a couple of those are early in the year before the runners are in peak form.[/quote]
Yeah, like Bek was!

Yes, but you are already including Bek's not being in peak form but not necessarily the rest of the contenders.

Bek will have to do this in a championship race, not one where he can sit and kick at the end. Because there are more suitors for that top spot, it will be harder to control the race. My guess is that someone goes from further out and it will be interesting to see if it can be maintained through to the finish or if several of those distanced early have enough to reel the leaders back in.

[kuha]

Because there are more suitors for that top spot, it will be harder to control the race.

But, in general, championship races are the easiest things in the world to predict: the pace for the first 60%-70% will be very modest, with a gradual increase from there on, and an all-out last 800/600m. Everyone knows this and everyone is (or should be) prepared for it.

What would truly interest me would be some deviation from this predictable scenario: something along the lines of Halberg, Ngugi, etc., or another Bedford-style from-the-gun blast.

[gh]

in the brussels 10k no one seems to even be mentioning geoffrey kirui who has a birthdate of 1993 and ran 26:55, he still has another year as a junior.

As Kuha said on the Aman thread

<<For the millionth time, none of us should get excited about these so-called "17-yr old" athletes on the basis of reputed age. The only thing that matters is their actual performances, which are impressive enough for any 25 yr. old.>>

[TN1965]

Because there are more suitors for that top spot, it will be harder to control the race.

But, in general, championship races are the easiest things in the world to predict: the pace for the first 60%-70% will be very modest, with a gradual increase from there on, and an all-out last 800/600m. Everyone knows this and everyone is (or should be) prepared for it.

What would truly interest me would be some deviation from this predictable scenario: something along the lines of Halberg, Ngugi, etc., or another Bedford-style from-the-gun blast.

Maybe Bitan Karoki could surprise the field with his big surge in the middle... if he can survive the Kenyan trial first.

But then again, Jeilan handled him easily at the African Games, so he may not have much of an impact after all.

[IanS_Liv]

I'm sorry. I just don't see how a guy goes from dropping out of a race at 27:30 pace, trailing behind at that, to running 26:43 less than 3 weeks later, especially given it was his second race in two years. Eight weeks later, yes. Why didn't he run in London? Did the heat in Daegu affect him? Is Brussels just a place he associates with running fast?

I'm so pleased for Rupp though. He's been on the verge of sub 27 a couple of times. His being pally with Mo Farah has helped us Brits get to know him.

[pickle47]

Because there are more suitors for that top spot, it will be harder to control the race.

But, in general, championship races are the easiest things in the world to predict: the pace for the first 60%-70% will be very modest, with a gradual increase from there on, and an all-out last 800/600m. Everyone knows this and everyone is (or should be) prepared for it.

What would truly interest me would be some deviation from this predictable scenario: something along the lines of Halberg, Ngugi, etc., or another Bedford-style from-the-gun blast.

12:57 for the last 5k is a pretty effective tactic. Only employed once and got the desired result.

[nevetsllim]

Bekele didn't look at his absolute best but I'm sure he'll be better next year. His form looked reminiscent of his post-Mombasa track form in the early part of 2007. So many people were writing him off and saying he might never be the same athlete but after a few unconvincing victories in May/June, I saw him blast to an almost solo 7:26 3000m in the rain in Sheffield.

[SQUACKEE]

Bekele didn't look at his absolute best but I'm sure he'll be better next year. His form looked reminiscent of his post-Mombasa track form in the early part of 2007. So many people were writing him off and saying he might never be the same athlete but after a few unconvincing victories in May/June, I saw him blast to an almost solo 7:26 3000m in the rain in Sheffield.

Look out, you are in danger of being accused of smittenity!

[nevetsllim]

Bekele didn't look at his absolute best but I'm sure he'll be better next year. His form looked reminiscent of his post-Mombasa track form in the early part of 2007. So many people were writing him off and saying he might never be the same athlete but after a few unconvincing victories in May/June, I saw him blast to an almost solo 7:26 3000m in the rain in Sheffield.

Look out, you are in danger of being accused of smittenity!

Don't get me wrong I don't think he'll ever get back to his peak but I think he can still challenge for global titles especially at 10,000m. He's still not that old and while Bekele has been injured for two years, Gebrselassie still enjoyed a very good season in 2003 despite missing nearly all of the 2001-02 track seasons through injury. Geb still came back to win silver behind a close-to-peak Bekele in Paris before his second fastest time ever in Brussels. I don't think Bekele will be facing anyone as good as he was in 2003-05 next year.

[26mi235]

They may not be as good, but they will be comparable. I think that if a rested Mo Farah is in that race he keeps up with/ahead of Bekele and wins the race. Rupp trailed off at the last 400 or so meters, just where the difference between Rupp and Mo becomes apparent.

[Alan Shank]

I'm sorry. I just don't see how a guy goes from dropping out of a race at 27:30 pace, trailing behind at that, to running 26:43 less than 3 weeks later, especially given it was his second race in two years.

The difference in conditions between Daegu and Brussels, combined with another three weeks of training, including the "race practice" in the WC 10K, explain the difference in outcome. Or are you implying something else?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

[SQUACKEE]

I'm sorry. I just don't see how a guy goes from dropping out of a race at 27:30 pace, trailing behind at that, to running 26:43 less than 3 weeks later, especially given it was his second race in two years.

The difference in conditions between Daegu and Brussels, combined with another three weeks of training, including the "race practice" in the WC 10K, explain the difference in outcome. Or are you implying something else?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

If he is implying something sinister, you must explain to me why Bek wouldnt do what he did for the worlds, why would he wait for brussels?

[Brian]

I'm sorry. I just don't see how a guy goes from dropping out of a race at 27:30 pace, trailing behind at that, to running 26:43 less than 3 weeks later, especially given it was his second race in two years.

The difference in conditions between Daegu and Brussels, combined with another three weeks of training, including the "race practice" in the WC 10K, explain the difference in outcome. Or are you implying something else?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA

When someone is injured--or coming off a long layoff from injury--inconsistency is pretty much a given for a while.
.

[Brian]

Also, we need to remember these guys are professional athletes. Pride and country do of course matter, but I'm sure Bekele had thousands of more reasons to hang tough through the discomfort at Brussels. When we're talking livelihood and taking care of your family, these things matter a lot.
.

[IanS_Liv]

I'm not particularly implying anything sinister, I just find the turn around in such a short time puzzling. It's just that I've always understood that it's your endurance work in the winter that gives you the form and strength to run so hard for so long in the summer, with tapering and speedwork to give you your edge. Maybe he had time to do catch up on the latter aspect and Daegu was too early?

I am a little sceptical about the long distances though, in general terms.

[Conor Dary]

By the way Rupp is the first American to break 4:20 per mile for 10k, ie 13 flat for 3. A time when I was growing up was still a big deal.

[Dave]

So who ran the last 5000 in 12:57? Bekele, Farah, or Rupp?

[Half Miler]

By the way Rupp is the first American to break 4:20 per mile for 10k, ie 13 flat for 3. A time when I was growing up was still a big deal.

Yes! I remember the T&FN cover of Paul Geis breaking 13 for the 3-mile, sometime in the '70s.

Makes Bekele's feat of back-to-back 13:08 5ks seem even more impossible.

[3]

Rupp-like breakthroughs (from 27-minutes to sub-26'50 and lower), including Rupp:

Sammy Kipketer (28'16"2A to 26'49"38); Josphat Bett (28'18"0A to 26'48"99); Imane Merga (27'33"53 to 26'48"35); Assefa Mezgebu (27'18"28 to 26'49"90); Mo Farah (27'14"07 to 26'46"57); Lucas Rotich (27'12"24 to 26'43"98); Galen Rupp (27'10"74 to 26'48"00); Salah Hissou (27'09"30 to 26'38"08); Moses Mosop (27'08"96 to 26'49"55); Boniface Kiprop (27'04"00 to 26'39"77); Moses Masai (27'03"20 to 26'49"20)

(All-time Athletics)

[kuha]

12:57 for the last 5k is a pretty effective tactic. Only employed once and got the desired result.

Yes. However, as a "case study" of one, this is clearly the exception that proves the general rule. Interestingly, this data point "proves" both that a 12:57 last half will win, and that a 12:58 last half won't! A rather daunting "lesson" for today''s athletes.

[Davidokun]

So who ran the last 5000 in 12:57? Bekele, Farah, or Rupp?

Bekele to win the world championship in 2003

[nevetsllim]

I'm not particularly implying anything sinister, I just find the turn around in such a short time puzzling. It's just that I've always understood that it's your endurance work in the winter that gives you the form and strength to run so hard for so long in the summer, with tapering and speedwork to give you your edge. Maybe he had time to do catch up on the latter aspect and Daegu was too early?

I am a little sceptical about the long distances though, in general terms.

Surely it's not that much different to Paula's comebacks in 2004 and 2008?

The pace was fluctuating quite a lot in the world 10,000m final in Daegu and while I didn't see the Brussels 10,000m, I'm guessing it was a bit more steady given that race had pacemakers in. I've always thought this will find you out if you're not in tip-top shape (Paula pretty much said the same thing after dropping out of the Athens 10,000m where halfway was reached in a fairly modest time but in an uneven pace).

[Master Po]

bump